NHL predictions Fri, Nov 13

Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →

2 games on this slate · 32–14 since Nov 6 (model V4) →

Power rankings: every team's model rating →

‹

Updated 30m ago

Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET

#8 Rangers

69.1% 3.8

#32 Canucks

30.9% 2.6

ModelMarket

NYR win 69.1% 66.4%

Total 6.4 6.5

Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · NYR +0.7 goals

Fri, Nov 13 · 10:00 PM ET

#16 Predators

40.4% 2.9

#7 Golden Knights

59.6% 3.5

ModelMarket

VGK win 59.6% 62.2%

Total 6.4 5.5

Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · VGK +0.4 goals

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Pavel Dorofeyev	38%	0.47	56%	2.78	75%	16:30	2:46
Mika Zibanejad	36%	0.44	67%	2.41	68%	20:19	3:03
Alexis Lafrenière	33%	0.41	61%	2.25	65%	18:28	3:02
J.T. Miller	32%	0.38	66%	2.08	61%	19:43	2:40
Jake DeBrusk	29%	0.34	47%	2.49	70%	17:43	3:37
Gabriel Perreault	28%	0.33	49%	1.85	55%	16:35	2:04
Brock Boeser	27%	0.32	51%	2.01	59%	20:14	3:40
Will Cuylle	27%	0.31	46%	2.00	58%	16:44	1:35
Elias Pettersson	25%	0.28	58%	1.76	52%	21:11	3:43
Tye Kartye	25%	0.28	48%	1.91	56%	18:08	1:22
Jonathan Lekkerimaki	21%	0.24	43%	1.75	51%	15:44	3:23
Oliver Bjorkstrand	19%	0.21	39%	1.50	44%	12:14	1:34
Linus Karlsson	18%	0.20	37%	1.60	47%	13:59	1:28
Marco Rossi	17%	0.18	38%	1.42	41%	14:42	2:08
Drew O'Connor	17%	0.18	29%	1.50	44%	15:04	0:11
Noah Laba	14%	0.15	33%	1.04	28%	14:25	0:06
Liam Ohgren	14%	0.15	28%	1.36	39%	13:19	1:09
Paul Cotter	14%	0.15	28%	1.05	28%	13:38	1:25
Eeli Tolvanen	13%	0.13	26%	1.23	35%	11:21	0:23
Brendan Gallagher	12%	0.12	23%	1.29	37%	10:53	0:03
Max Sasson	11%	0.12	21%	1.10	30%	12:30	0:05
Jaroslav Chmelar	10%	0.11	21%	0.83	20%	8:53	0:06
Glenn Gawdin	8%	0.08	18%	0.73	17%	6:45	0:04

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Adam Fox	16%	0.17	69%	1.76	52%	24:11	3:58
Filip Hronek	11%	0.11	52%	1.63	48%	27:35	3:32
Vladislav Gavrikov	9%	0.09	32%	1.43	42%	22:07	0:30
Zeev Buium	6%	0.07	28%	1.04	28%	22:39	1:39
Braden Schneider	6%	0.06	24%	1.37	39%	20:26	0:07
Scott Morrow	5%	0.05	24%	1.19	33%	13:48	0:38
Matthew Robertson	5%	0.05	20%	0.98	26%	15:03	0:02
Marcus Pettersson	5%	0.05	28%	0.86	21%	21:19	0:09
Tom Willander	5%	0.05	24%	0.94	24%	19:39	0:33
Elias Nils Pettersson	4%	0.04	14%	0.85	21%	17:01	0:02
Jamie Oleksiak	4%	0.04	16%	0.86	21%	16:45	0:01
Cameron Crotty	2%	0.02	13%	0.61	13%	12:05	0:00

	NYR	VAN
Power ratinggoals/gm	0.2010th of 32	-1.2532nd of 32
5-on-5 offensexGF/60	2.5019th of 32	2.1032nd of 32
5-on-5 defensexGA/60	2.4114th of 32	2.8831st of 32
Power playxGF/60	8.934th of 32	7.1920th of 32
Penalty killxGA/60	6.837th of 32	10.0832nd of 32
Power-play minutesmin	4.6	4.8
Starting goalieGSAx/gm	0.0111th of 32	-0.2529th of 32

	NYR	VAN
Starter	Dylan Garand	Leevi Merilinen
StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10	Projected	Projected
Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last	+0.01 (#11)	-0.25 (#29)

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Jack Eichel	36%	0.44	70%	3.04	79%	20:28	3:18
Filip Forsberg	35%	0.44	62%	2.72	74%	19:44	3:52
Steven Stamkos	31%	0.37	53%	2.27	65%	18:08	3:59
Mark Stone	31%	0.37	63%	2.05	60%	18:54	3:06
Tomas Hertl	29%	0.35	51%	2.29	66%	15:40	3:19
Mitch Marner	28%	0.33	68%	2.22	64%	19:56	3:31
Ryan O'Reilly	26%	0.30	56%	1.75	52%	20:38	3:49
Victor Olofsson	23%	0.26	42%	2.17	63%	14:15	2:52
Trevor Connelly	22%	0.25	41%	1.83	54%	14:25	1:55
William Karlsson	22%	0.25	42%	1.90	56%	16:48	1:04
Ivan Barbashev	20%	0.22	45%	1.48	43%	15:04	0:52
Mavrik Bourque	19%	0.21	39%	1.81	53%	16:21	2:36
Brett Howden	18%	0.20	32%	1.45	42%	14:53	0:17
Adam Edstrom	17%	0.18	27%	1.40	40%	14:47	0:06
Ross Colton	16%	0.18	31%	1.67	49%	13:24	0:23
Braeden Bowman	16%	0.18	34%	1.27	36%	12:45	1:10
Shane Wright	16%	0.17	33%	1.26	36%	14:10	1:50
Jack Drury	13%	0.14	29%	1.21	34%	17:35	0:05
Alex Kerfoot	13%	0.13	31%	0.98	26%	15:47	1:28
Nils Hoglander	11%	0.12	25%	1.07	29%	11:40	0:55
Vitali Pinchuk	10%	0.11	23%	0.99	26%	9:28	1:14
Marc Gatcomb	10%	0.10	18%	1.21	34%	10:00	0:01
Nic Dowd	8%	0.09	20%	0.69	16%	11:15	0:01
Reid Schaefer	8%	0.08	16%	0.84	21%	10:11	0:00

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Roman Josi	18%	0.19	59%	2.40	68%	25:41	4:03
Shea Theodore	11%	0.12	43%	1.82	54%	22:38	1:21
Rasmus Andersson	11%	0.11	32%	1.78	52%	19:45	1:09
Brady Skjei	6%	0.07	29%	1.16	32%	21:17	1:25
Brayden McNabb	6%	0.06	24%	1.28	36%	21:26	0:02
Adam Wilsby	6%	0.06	26%	1.16	32%	20:07	0:06
Jeremy Lauzon	5%	0.05	16%	1.16	32%	17:29	0:01
Dylan Coghlan	4%	0.04	15%	1.30	37%	13:37	0:01
Nick Perbix	4%	0.04	18%	0.89	22%	18:55	0:13
Parker Wotherspoon	3%	0.03	21%	0.88	22%	17:41	0:05
Daemon Hunt	3%	0.03	14%	0.70	16%	13:36	0:01
Jayden Struble	3%	0.03	15%	0.52	10%	15:29	0:00

	NSH	VGK
Power ratinggoals/gm	-0.0115th of 32	0.367th of 32
5-on-5 offensexGF/60	2.5018th of 32	2.5513th of 32
5-on-5 defensexGA/60	2.6626th of 32	2.286th of 32
Power playxGF/60	7.3518th of 32	8.855th of 32
Penalty killxGA/60	6.756th of 32	6.605th of 32
Power-play minutesmin	4.6	4.8
Starting goalieGSAx/gm	0.049th of 32	-0.1319th of 32

	NSH	VGK
Starter	Juuse Saros	Adin Hill
StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10	Projected	Projected
Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last	+0.04 (#9)	-0.13 (#19)

Anytime goal board

Pavel Dorofeyev38%
Jack Eichel36%
Mika Zibanejad36%
Filip Forsberg35%
Alexis Lafrenière33%

Forwards

Rank by


NSH @ VGK	35.8%	0.44	70.5%	34.4%	54.0%	3.04	79.3%	57.5%	20:28	3:18
NSH @ VGK	35.4%	0.44	62.4%	25.7%	41.9%	2.72	74.1%	50.3%	19:44	3:52
NYR @ VAN	24.8%	0.28	57.9%	21.5%	44.0%	1.76	52.0%	26.1%	21:11	3:43
NYR @ VAN	35.6%	0.44	66.7%	30.1%	48.3%	2.41	68.2%	42.9%	20:19	3:03
NSH @ VGK	28.4%	0.33	68.3%	31.9%	55.7%	2.22	63.9%	37.9%	19:56	3:31
NSH @ VGK	25.7%	0.30	56.0%	19.9%	40.8%	1.75	51.5%	25.8%	20:38	3:49
NYR @ VAN	27.3%	0.32	50.9%	16.0%	32.5%	2.01	58.8%	32.6%	20:14	3:40
NYR @ VAN	31.9%	0.38	65.8%	29.1%	49.8%	2.08	60.6%	34.4%	19:43	2:40
NSH @ VGK	31.1%	0.37	52.5%	17.2%	31.1%	2.27	65.1%	39.3%	18:08	3:59
NSH @ VGK	30.9%	0.37	63.4%	26.6%	47.0%	2.05	59.8%	33.6%	18:54	3:06
NYR @ VAN	33.3%	0.41	60.6%	23.9%	40.9%	2.25	64.6%	38.7%	18:28	3:02
NYR @ VAN	29.1%	0.34	46.9%	13.3%	25.1%	2.49	69.8%	44.8%	17:43	3:37
NYR @ VAN	37.6%	0.47	56.0%	19.9%	29.4%	2.78	75.3%	51.9%	16:30	2:46
NSH @ VGK	29.5%	0.35	50.6%	15.8%	30.0%	2.29	65.6%	39.9%	15:40	3:19
NYR @ VAN	24.7%	0.28	48.4%	14.3%	31.5%	1.91	56.2%	30.1%	18:08	1:22
NYR @ VAN	21.0%	0.24	43.5%	11.2%	28.5%	1.75	51.5%	25.7%	15:44	3:23
NYR @ VAN	27.8%	0.33	48.9%	14.6%	29.3%	1.85	54.6%	28.5%	16:35	2:04
NSH @ VGK	18.5%	0.21	39.3%	9.0%	25.4%	1.81	53.3%	27.3%	16:21	2:36
NYR @ VAN	26.5%	0.31	45.9%	12.6%	26.3%	2.00	58.5%	32.3%	16:44	1:35
NSH @ VGK	22.1%	0.25	41.7%	10.3%	25.2%	1.90	55.8%	29.6%	16:48	1:04
NSH @ VGK	22.7%	0.26	41.8%	10.3%	24.7%	2.17	62.9%	36.8%	14:15	2:52
NSH @ VGK	22.3%	0.25	41.1%	9.9%	24.3%	1.83	53.9%	27.9%	14:25	1:55
NSH @ VGK	13.2%	0.14	29.2%	4.8%	18.4%	1.21	34.0%	12.6%	17:35	0:05
NYR @ VAN	16.7%	0.18	38.1%	8.4%	25.7%	1.42	41.3%	17.5%	14:42	2:08
NSH @ VGK	12.6%	0.13	31.2%	5.5%	21.4%	0.98	25.5%	7.9%	15:47	1:28
NSH @ VGK	19.8%	0.22	45.1%	12.2%	31.5%	1.48	43.1%	18.9%	15:04	0:52
NYR @ VAN	17.9%	0.20	36.8%	7.8%	23.0%	1.60	47.0%	21.9%	13:59	1:28
NSH @ VGK	16.0%	0.17	32.8%	6.1%	20.1%	1.26	35.9%	13.8%	14:10	1:50
NYR @ VAN	16.5%	0.18	29.5%	4.8%	15.5%	1.50	43.9%	19.5%	15:04	0:11
NSH @ VGK	18.4%	0.20	32.2%	5.9%	17.0%	1.45	42.1%	18.1%	14:53	0:17
NSH @ VGK	16.6%	0.18	26.8%	4.0%	12.3%	1.40	40.4%	16.9%	14:47	0:06
NYR @ VAN	13.8%	0.15	27.6%	4.2%	16.0%	1.05	28.2%	9.3%	13:38	1:25
NYR @ VAN	14.0%	0.15	28.1%	4.4%	16.4%	1.36	39.3%	16.1%	13:19	1:09
NSH @ VGK	16.5%	0.18	31.5%	5.6%	17.9%	1.67	49.0%	23.6%	13:24	0:23
NYR @ VAN	19.0%	0.21	38.7%	8.7%	24.3%	1.50	43.7%	19.3%	12:14	1:34
NYR @ VAN	14.2%	0.15	32.6%	6.0%	21.4%	1.04	28.0%	9.2%	14:25	0:06
NSH @ VGK	16.1%	0.18	33.6%	6.4%	20.8%	1.27	36.0%	13.9%	12:45	1:10
NSH @ VGK	11.1%	0.12	25.0%	3.4%	15.6%	1.07	28.8%	9.6%	11:40	0:55
NYR @ VAN	11.3%	0.12	21.4%	2.5%	11.3%	1.10	30.0%	10.3%	12:30	0:05
NYR @ VAN	12.6%	0.13	25.8%	3.7%	15.2%	1.23	34.7%	13.1%	11:21	0:23
NYR @ VAN	11.5%	0.12	22.5%	2.8%	12.5%	1.29	36.9%	14.5%	10:53	0:03
NSH @ VGK	8.2%	0.09	20.4%	2.2%	13.3%	0.69	15.5%	3.5%	11:15	0:01
NSH @ VGK	10.1%	0.11	23.0%	2.9%	14.4%	0.99	26.2%	8.2%	9:28	1:14
NSH @ VGK	9.9%	0.10	18.1%	1.8%	9.2%	1.21	34.1%	12.7%	10:00	0:01
NSH @ VGK	7.8%	0.08	16.4%	1.4%	9.3%	0.84	20.8%	5.6%	10:11	0:00
NYR @ VAN	10.1%	0.11	20.6%	2.3%	11.7%	0.83	20.4%	5.5%	8:53	0:06
NYR @ VAN	7.6%	0.08	17.6%	1.7%	10.9%	0.73	16.7%	4.0%	6:45	0:04

Defense

Rank by


NSH @ VGK	17.5%	0.19	59.1%	22.6%	50.4%	2.40	68.0%	42.6%	25:41	4:03
NYR @ VAN	10.5%	0.11	51.9%	16.7%	46.3%	1.63	48.0%	22.8%	27:35	3:32
NYR @ VAN	15.9%	0.17	69.3%	33.1%	63.5%	1.76	51.8%	26.0%	24:11	3:58
NSH @ VGK	11.3%	0.12	43.0%	11.0%	35.8%	1.82	53.7%	27.7%	22:38	1:21
NYR @ VAN	6.3%	0.07	27.8%	4.3%	22.9%	1.04	27.7%	9.0%	22:39	1:39
NYR @ VAN	8.6%	0.09	32.4%	5.9%	26.0%	1.43	41.6%	17.8%	22:07	0:30
NSH @ VGK	6.3%	0.07	28.5%	4.5%	23.7%	1.16	32.3%	11.6%	21:17	1:25
NSH @ VGK	10.8%	0.11	31.8%	5.7%	23.5%	1.78	52.5%	26.6%	19:45	1:09
NSH @ VGK	6.3%	0.06	23.9%	3.1%	18.8%	1.28	36.4%	14.2%	21:26	0:02
NYR @ VAN	4.7%	0.05	28.0%	4.3%	24.4%	0.86	21.3%	5.9%	21:19	0:09
NYR @ VAN	6.1%	0.06	24.1%	3.2%	19.2%	1.37	39.5%	16.2%	20:26	0:07
NSH @ VGK	5.6%	0.06	26.4%	3.8%	22.0%	1.16	32.0%	11.4%	20:07	0:06
NYR @ VAN	4.7%	0.05	24.2%	3.2%	20.5%	0.94	24.1%	7.2%	19:39	0:33
NSH @ VGK	4.2%	0.04	18.3%	1.8%	14.8%	0.89	22.3%	6.3%	18:55	0:13
NSH @ VGK	4.7%	0.05	15.8%	1.3%	11.7%	1.16	32.1%	11.5%	17:29	0:01
NSH @ VGK	3.2%	0.03	21.3%	2.5%	18.7%	0.88	22.1%	6.2%	17:41	0:05
NYR @ VAN	4.2%	0.04	14.4%	1.1%	10.6%	0.85	21.2%	5.8%	17:01	0:02
NYR @ VAN	3.7%	0.04	16.5%	1.4%	13.3%	0.86	21.3%	5.9%	16:45	0:01
NYR @ VAN	4.7%	0.05	19.5%	2.0%	15.5%	0.98	25.7%	8.0%	15:03	0:02
NYR @ VAN	5.3%	0.05	24.2%	3.2%	19.9%	1.19	33.3%	12.2%	13:48	0:38
NSH @ VGK	2.8%	0.03	15.1%	1.2%	12.6%	0.52	9.8%	1.7%	15:29	0:00
NSH @ VGK	4.4%	0.04	15.3%	1.2%	11.5%	1.30	37.0%	14.6%	13:37	0:01
NSH @ VGK	2.9%	0.03	14.1%	1.0%	11.6%	0.70	15.6%	3.6%	13:36	0:01
NYR @ VAN	2.4%	0.02	12.7%	0.8%	10.5%	0.61	12.8%	2.6%	12:05	0:00

NHL predictions Fri, Nov 13

How we got this

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Model vs market

Movement

How the numbers are built

Team comparison

Goaltending

Who is out

What moves this game

Conditions

How we got this

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Model vs market

Movement

How the numbers are built

Team comparison

Goaltending

What moves this game

Conditions

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Games

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Model vs market

Movement

How the numbers are built

Team comparison

Goaltending

Who is out

What moves this game

Conditions

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Model vs market

Movement

How the numbers are built

Team comparison

Goaltending

What moves this game

Conditions

Players

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense