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CFB

Model record

Every game since Oct 10, 2026, settled against the first spread we captured. Simulated 1 unit a game, not real bets.

The model's side is the favorite when its margin is bigger than the line's, the underdog when smaller. Lines are DraftKings first. Pushes return the stake; postponed, cancelled games are no action.

20–14 against the spread · since Oct 10
58.8% hit rate · break-even 52.3% at the prices taken
+4.3 units at 1 a game · ROI +12.5%
6–5 when the model disagreed by 5+ points · +0.5 units

34 settled games: at this size the hit rate could be off by about ±17 points either way, far too few to separate skill from luck.

0 no action · 56 pending · 1 with no position (the model matched the market, or no price was posted).

Model's side vs the lineResultUnits
Week 6, 2026 →
HAW +21.0HAW 12, ASU 30 ✓ covered +0.87
BOIS -7.5BOIS 38, FRES 31 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
KU +15.5KU 24, UTAH 41 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
PUR +2.5MINN 13, PUR 41 ✓ covered +0.95
ALA -2.5UGA 20, ALA 17 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
SYR +13.5SYR 25, UVA 28 ✓ covered +0.93
AF -7.0AF 28, NIU 7 ✓ covered +0.89
JMU -7.5JMU 27, GASO 24 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
UL +3.0UL 31, LT 32 ✓ covered +0.93
UK +9.5LSU 34, UK 35 ✓ covered +0.91
UAB +14.5UAB 13, MEM 38 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
NEV -10.0NEV 30, UTEP 13 ✓ covered +0.93
MRSH -4.5CCU 27, MRSH 21 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
SDSU +16.5SDSU 14, ORST 66 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
ARK +13.5TENN 24, ARK 17 ✓ covered +0.95
OSU -33.5MD 16, OSU 45 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
TEM -3.5CONN 34, TEM 20 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
OU +7.5TEX 24, OU 27 ✓ covered +0.91
VAN +9.5MISS 52, VAN 17 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
KSU -2.5HOU 35, KSU 16 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
GT +4.5DUKE 25, GT 28 ✓ covered +0.95
STAN +40.5STAN 7, ND 58 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
CAL +10.0VT 20, CAL 25 ✓ covered +0.91
MSU +2.5ILL 38, MSU 37 ✓ covered +1.00
UCLA +10.5UCLA 17, ORE 15 ✓ covered +0.87
UNT -27.5CLT 10, UNT 50 ✓ covered +0.85
NAVY -3.0TLSA 26, NAVY 34 ✓ covered +0.89
EMU -5.5EMU 25, AKR 23 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
TOL -18.5BUF 23, TOL 8 ✗ didn't cover -1.00
OHIO -2.5CMU 14, OHIO 31 ✓ covered +0.85
WMU -14.0KENT 7, WMU 38 ✓ covered +0.93
MASS +6.5M-OH 20, MASS 19 ✓ covered +0.89
ODU +8.5ODU 10, APP 3 ✓ covered +0.93
ECU -10.0RICE 12, ECU 28 ✓ covered +0.93