CFB
Model record
196–63
favorite straight-up · last 30 days
75.7%
favorite win rate (259 graded)
11.8
points: average miss on the projected margin
12.4
points: average miss on the projected total
Week by week
favorite won · favorite lost
Calibration
50%–60%
52.9% n=70
60%–70%
78.6% n=70
70%–80%
70.5% n=61
80%–90%
90.9% n=55
90%–100%
93.8% n=64
bar = how often the favorite actually won · notch = what the model predicted
Recently graded
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6, 2026 → | |||
| ALA | ✗ miss | 63.2% | UGA 20, ALA 17 |
| TENN | ✓ hit | 65.8% | TENN 24, ARK 17 |
| FLA | ✗ miss | 63.4% | SC 38, FLA 19 |
| LSU | ✗ miss | 71.6% | LSU 34, UK 35 |
| MIZ | ✓ hit | 59.7% | TA&M 6, MIZ 27 |
| TEX | ✗ miss | 62.6% | TEX 24, OU 27 |
| MISS | ✓ hit | 59.8% | MISS 52, VAN 17 |
| ASU | ✓ hit | 82.4% | HAW 12, ASU 30 |
| ARIZ | ✓ hit | 73.2% | ARIZ 52, WVU 31 |
| OKST | ✓ hit | 55.2% | UCF 28, OKST 42 |
| KSU | ✗ miss | 71.4% | HOU 35, KSU 16 |
| UTAH | ✓ hit | 71.4% | KU 24, UTAH 41 |
| DUKE | ✗ miss | 54.8% | DUKE 25, GT 28 |
| PITT | ✗ miss | 70.6% | UNC 21, PITT 17 |
| ND | ✓ hit | 98.7% | STAN 7, ND 58 |
| UVA | ✓ hit | 76.0% | SYR 25, UVA 28 |
| VT | ✗ miss | 69.3% | VT 20, CAL 25 |
| WAKE | ✓ hit | 70.8% | WAKE 38, NCSU 14 |
| MSU | ✗ miss | 50.6% | ILL 38, MSU 37 |
| IU | ✓ hit | 74.4% | IU 20, NEB 17 |
| NU | ✓ hit | 97.5% | BALL 14, NU 45 |
| OSU | ✓ hit | 98.6% | MD 16, OSU 45 |
| ORE | ✗ miss | 66.8% | UCLA 17, ORE 15 |
| PSU | ✗ miss | 53.8% | USC 31, PSU 23 |
| MINN | ✗ miss | 54.7% | MINN 13, PUR 41 |
| BOIS | ✓ hit | 70.6% | BOIS 38, FRES 31 |
| ORST | ✓ hit | 76.6% | SDSU 14, ORST 66 |
| TEM | ✗ miss | 65.7% | CONN 34, TEM 20 |
| TULN | ✗ miss | 56.2% | TULN 17, ARMY 20 |
| UNT | ✓ hit | 96.6% | CLT 10, UNT 50 |
| ECU | ✓ hit | 82.4% | RICE 12, ECU 28 |
| MEM | ✓ hit | 76.1% | UAB 13, MEM 38 |
| NAVY | ✓ hit | 70.7% | TLSA 26, NAVY 34 |
| AF | ✓ hit | 78.2% | AF 28, NIU 7 |
| NEV | ✓ hit | 80.6% | NEV 30, UTEP 13 |
| EMU | ✓ hit | 67.5% | EMU 25, AKR 23 |
| TOL | ✗ miss | 88.7% | BUF 23, TOL 8 |
| OHIO | ✓ hit | 62.7% | CMU 14, OHIO 31 |
| WMU | ✓ hit | 82.2% | KENT 7, WMU 38 |
| M-OH | ✓ hit | 64.5% | M-OH 20, MASS 19 |
| ODU | ✓ hit | 55.5% | ODU 10, APP 3 |
| MRSH | ✗ miss | 71.0% | CCU 27, MRSH 21 |
| JMU | ✓ hit | 83.9% | JMU 27, GASO 24 |
| UL | ✗ miss | 57.7% | UL 31, LT 32 |
| BYU | ✓ hit | 76.3% | ISU 10, BYU 24 |
| LOU | ✓ hit | 64.0% | FSU 20, LOU 44 |
| WASH | ✗ miss | 60.0% | IOWA 41, WASH 24 |
| USU | ✓ hit | 61.5% | WSU 16, USU 17 |
| SJSU | ✗ miss | 71.7% | WYO 16, SJSU 13 |
| UTSA | ✓ hit | 55.9% | USF 24, UTSA 31 |
| ARST | ✗ miss | 50.0% | USA 56, ARST 49 |
| LIB | ✓ hit | 90.4% | SHSU 3, LIB 35 |
| WKU | ✓ hit | 55.1% | MOST 13, WKU 34 |
| JXST | ✓ hit | 70.9% | JXST 27, KENN 26 |
| FIU | ✓ hit | 62.1% | NMSU 3, FIU 22 |
| TROY | ✓ hit | 68.0% | USM 34, TROY 55 |
| Week 5, 2026 → | |||
| UGA | ✓ hit | 87.1% | VAN 14, UGA 38 |
| ALA | ✓ hit | 69.1% | ALA 56, MSST 23 |
| FLA | ✗ miss | 50.4% | FLA 17, MIZ 45 |
| SC | ✗ miss | 50.7% | UK 35, SC 34 |
| TENN | ✓ hit | 55.8% | AUB 14, TENN 24 |
| TA&M | ✓ hit | 67.8% | ARK 7, TA&M 34 |
| KU | ✓ hit | 89.0% | MTSU 0, KU 55 |
| ASU | ✗ miss | 50.3% | BAY 55, ASU 19 |
| BYU | ✓ hit | 66.3% | BYU 17, TCU 10 |
| HOU | ✓ hit | 63.0% | UCF 17, HOU 27 |
| ARIZ | ✓ hit | 60.5% | CIN 7, ARIZ 34 |
| TTU | ✓ hit | 82.1% | TTU 29, COLO 7 |
| ISU | ✓ hit | 81.5% | WVU 42, ISU 45 |
| SMU | ✓ hit | 84.4% | BC 16, SMU 25 |
| UNLV | ✓ hit | 62.9% | CAL 31, UNLV 39 |
| LOU | ✗ miss | 78.2% | LOU 28, NCSU 31 |
| MIA | ✓ hit | 79.8% | MIA 41, CLEM 13 |
| ND | ✓ hit | 92.7% | ND 37, UNC 26 |
| WAKE | ✓ hit | 79.9% | STAN 3, WAKE 57 |
| SYR | ✓ hit | 51.8% | SYR 42, CONN 41 |
| UVA | ✗ miss | 57.1% | UVA 7, FSU 38 |
| ILL | ✗ miss | 79.0% | PUR 24, ILL 17 |
| OSU | ✓ hit | 81.8% | OSU 31, IOWA 14 |
| MICH | ✗ miss | 78.5% | MICH 14, MINN 20 |