College Football predictions Week 11, 2026
Win probabilities, projected scores, spreads and totals for every FBS game. FCS games are labeled and left out of the record. Methodology →
3 games on this slate · 145–76 last 30 days →
Games
#101
W Michigan
75.4%
30.0
#133
Akron
24.6%
19.0
Projected total
49.0
Projected spread
W Michigan -11.0
80% range
- Margin
- Akron by 10 to Western Michigan by 32
- Total
- 28 to 70
Biggest factor: PPA rating gap · WMU +8.5 pts
#138
Kent State
20.1%
12.6
#125
Bowling Green
79.9%
25.4
Projected total
38.0
Projected spread
Bowling Green -12.8
80% range
- Margin
- Kent State by 7 to Bowling Green by 32
- Total
- 17 to 59
Biggest factor: PPA rating gap · BGSU +6.0 pts
#78
Ohio
68.7%
26.5
#117
Miami (OH)
31.3%
18.9
Projected total
45.4
Projected spread
Ohio -7.6
80% range
- Margin
- Miami (OH) by 12 to Ohio by 28
- Total
- 25 to 66
Biggest factor: Success rate · OHIO +7.5 pts
How we got this
Western Michigan
30.0
Akron
19.0
How the numbers are built
MarginWMU by 11.0
- PPA rating gapopponent-adjusted points per play WMU +8.5
- Home field AKR +2.9
- Success rateopponent-adjusted WMU +5.0
- Explosivenessopponent-adjusted WMU +0.4
Total48.9 pts
- Average FBS gameat league pace, 136 plays49.5
- Pace134 projected plays -0.8
- PPA ratingsboth offenses vs defenses +0.7
- Expected points (EPA)total PPA per game +0.1
- Possession time -0.1
- Weather8 mph wind, 52F -0.6
- Recent scoring levelmodel vs 792 recent games +0.2
Team comparison
|
WMU |
AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratingpts | -8.3101st of 138 | -22.2133rd of 138 |
| Offense (PPA)per play | -0.07101st of 138 | -0.12121st of 138 |
| Defense (PPA allowed)per play | 0.0273rd of 138 | 0.21137th of 138 |
| Success rate, offensevs avg | -0.03695th of 138 | -0.061123rd of 138 |
| Success rate allowedvs avg | 0.02894th of 138 | 0.072133rd of 138 |
| Explosiveness, offensevs avg | -0.101124th of 138 | -0.04896th of 138 |
| Explosiveness allowedvs avg | -0.00966th of 138 | 0.123127th of 138 |
| Paceplays/game | 65.099th of 138 | 68.950th of 138 |
Conditions
- Neutral siteNohome field applies
- Wind8 mphtotal only
- Temperature52Ftotal only
Model cfb-v4 · data as of · Sources: CollegeFootballData (PPA, success rate), ESPN schedule and box scores, Open-Meteo kickoff forecast. How the models work →
How we got this
Kent State
12.6
Bowling Green
25.4
How the numbers are built
MarginBGSU by 12.8
- PPA rating gapopponent-adjusted points per play BGSU +6.0
- Home field BGSU +2.9
- Success rateopponent-adjusted BGSU +4.7
- Explosivenessopponent-adjusted KENT +0.7
Total37.9 pts
- Average FBS gameat league pace, 136 plays49.5
- Pace121 projected plays -5.1
- PPA ratingsboth offenses vs defenses -3.8
- Expected points (EPA)total PPA per game -3.6
- Possession time +1.1
- Weather7 mph wind, 55F -0.4
- Recent scoring levelmodel vs 792 recent games +0.2
Team comparison
|
KENT |
BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratingpts | -25.4138th of 138 | -15.5125th of 138 |
| Offense (PPA)per play | -0.27138th of 138 | -0.14125th of 138 |
| Defense (PPA allowed)per play | 0.10115th of 138 | 0.07103rd of 138 |
| Success rate, offensevs avg | -0.111137th of 138 | -0.053119th of 138 |
| Success rate allowedvs avg | 0.065125th of 138 | 0.057121st of 138 |
| Explosiveness, offensevs avg | 0.1217th of 138 | -0.02182nd of 138 |
| Explosiveness allowedvs avg | 0.059104th of 138 | 0.060105th of 138 |
| Paceplays/game | 64.7103rd of 138 | 56.3137th of 138 |
Conditions
- Neutral siteNohome field applies
- Wind7 mphtotal only
- Temperature55Ftotal only
Model cfb-v4 · data as of · Sources: CollegeFootballData (PPA, success rate), ESPN schedule and box scores, Open-Meteo kickoff forecast. How the models work →
How we got this
Ohio
26.5
Miami (OH)
18.9
How the numbers are built
MarginOHIO by 7.6
- PPA rating gapopponent-adjusted points per play OHIO +4.2
- Home field M-OH +2.9
- Success rateopponent-adjusted OHIO +7.4
- Explosivenessopponent-adjusted M-OH +1.1
Total45.3 pts
- Average FBS gameat league pace, 136 plays49.5
- Pace127 projected plays -2.9
- PPA ratingsboth offenses vs defenses -0.4
- Expected points (EPA)total PPA per game -0.9
- Possession time +0.3
- Weather8 mph wind, 55F -0.4
- Recent scoring levelmodel vs 792 recent games +0.2
Team comparison
|
OHIO |
M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratingpts | -2.478th of 138 | -12.9117th of 138 |
| Offense (PPA)per play | -0.0277th of 138 | -0.10114th of 138 |
| Defense (PPA allowed)per play | 0.0376th of 138 | 0.0698th of 138 |
| Success rate, offensevs avg | 0.01952nd of 138 | -0.075130th of 138 |
| Success rate allowedvs avg | 0.01986th of 138 | 0.03096th of 138 |
| Explosiveness, offensevs avg | -0.151134th of 138 | 0.09817th of 138 |
| Explosiveness allowedvs avg | 0.00472nd of 138 | 0.03188th of 138 |
| Paceplays/game | 63.2117th of 138 | 64.2109th of 138 |
Conditions
- Neutral siteNohome field applies
- Wind8 mphtotal only
- Temperature55Ftotal only
Model cfb-v4 · data as of · Sources: CollegeFootballData (PPA, success rate), ESPN schedule and box scores, Open-Meteo kickoff forecast. How the models work →