College Football predictions Week 12, 2026
Win probabilities, projected scores, spreads and totals for every FBS game. FCS games are labeled and left out of the record. Methodology →
3 games on this slate · 149–77 last 30 days →
Games
#130
Ball State
15.9%
17.3
#85
Ohio
84.1%
33.1
Projected total
50.4
Projected spread
Ohio -15.8
80% range
- Margin
- Ball State by 4 to Ohio by 36
- Total
- 30 to 71
Biggest factor: PPA rating gap · OHIO +7.1 pts
#133
E Michigan
17.4%
15.4
#98
W Michigan
82.6%
30.2
Projected total
45.6
Projected spread
W Michigan -14.9
80% range
- Margin
- Eastern Michigan by 5 to Western Michigan by 35
- Total
- 25 to 66
Biggest factor: PPA rating gap · WMU +7.4 pts
#110
Miami (OH)
73.8%
26.3
#138
Kent State
26.2%
16.2
Projected total
42.5
Projected spread
Miami (OH) -10.1
80% range
- Margin
- Kent State by 10 to Miami (OH) by 30
- Total
- 22 to 63
Biggest factor: PPA rating gap · M-OH +7.8 pts
How we got this
Ball State
17.3
Ohio
33.1
How the numbers are built
MarginOHIO by 15.8
- PPA rating gapopponent-adjusted points per play OHIO +7.1
- Home field OHIO +2.9
- Success rateopponent-adjusted OHIO +5.4
- Explosivenessopponent-adjusted OHIO +0.5
Total50.4 pts
- Average FBS gameat league pace, 136 plays49.8
- Pace130 projected plays -2.0
- PPA ratingsboth offenses vs defenses +1.3
- Expected points (EPA)total PPA per game +0.7
- Possession time +0.6
- Weather4 mph wind, 40F -0.4
- Recent scoring levelmodel vs 803 recent games +0.5
Team comparison
|
BALL |
OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratingpts | -17.4130th of 138 | -4.585th of 138 |
| Offense (PPA)per play | -0.07102nd of 138 | -0.0383rd of 138 |
| Defense (PPA allowed)per play | 0.18134th of 138 | 0.0172nd of 138 |
| Success rate, offensevs avg | -0.055118th of 138 | -0.00982nd of 138 |
| Success rate allowedvs avg | 0.061124th of 138 | 0.03295th of 138 |
| Explosiveness, offensevs avg | 0.07029th of 138 | -0.01780th of 138 |
| Explosiveness allowedvs avg | 0.146129th of 138 | -0.03352nd of 138 |
| Paceplays/game | 66.872nd of 138 | 63.0118th of 138 |
Conditions
- Neutral siteNohome field applies
- Wind4 mphtotal only
- Temperature40Ftotal only
Model cfb-v4 · data as of · Sources: CollegeFootballData (PPA, success rate), ESPN schedule and box scores, Open-Meteo kickoff forecast. How the models work →
How we got this
Eastern Michigan
15.4
Western Michigan
30.2
How the numbers are built
MarginWMU by 14.9
- PPA rating gapopponent-adjusted points per play WMU +7.4
- Home field WMU +2.9
- Success rateopponent-adjusted WMU +4.3
- Explosivenessopponent-adjusted WMU +0.2
Total45.6 pts
- Average FBS gameat league pace, 136 plays49.8
- Pace130 projected plays -1.9
- PPA ratingsboth offenses vs defenses -1.3
- Expected points (EPA)total PPA per game -1.3
- Possession time +0.4
- Weather5 mph wind, 40F -0.6
- Recent scoring levelmodel vs 803 recent games +0.5
Team comparison
|
EMU |
WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratingpts | -20.3133rd of 138 | -8.398th of 138 |
| Offense (PPA)per play | -0.17130th of 138 | -0.07103rd of 138 |
| Defense (PPA allowed)per play | 0.14126th of 138 | 0.0279th of 138 |
| Success rate, offensevs avg | -0.053116th of 138 | -0.03798th of 138 |
| Success rate allowedvs avg | 0.071132nd of 138 | 0.02788th of 138 |
| Explosiveness, offensevs avg | -0.092119th of 138 | -0.103122nd of 138 |
| Explosiveness allowedvs avg | 0.04898th of 138 | -0.01166th of 138 |
| Paceplays/game | 65.3100th of 138 | 65.0103rd of 138 |
Conditions
- Neutral siteNohome field applies
- Wind5 mphtotal only
- Temperature40Ftotal only
Model cfb-v4 · data as of · Sources: CollegeFootballData (PPA, success rate), ESPN schedule and box scores, Open-Meteo kickoff forecast. How the models work →
How we got this
Miami (OH)
26.3
Kent State
16.2
How the numbers are built
MarginM-OH by 10.1
- PPA rating gapopponent-adjusted points per play M-OH +7.8
- Home field KENT +2.9
- Success rateopponent-adjusted M-OH +5.4
- Explosivenessopponent-adjusted KENT +0.3
Total42.5 pts
- Average FBS gameat league pace, 136 plays49.8
- Pace131 projected plays -1.6
- PPA ratingsboth offenses vs defenses -3.2
- Expected points (EPA)total PPA per game -2.8
- Possession time +0.5
- Weather4 mph wind, 37F -0.6
- Recent scoring levelmodel vs 803 recent games +0.5
Team comparison
|
M-OH |
KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratingpts | -12.5110th of 138 | -25.4138th of 138 |
| Offense (PPA)per play | -0.09106th of 138 | -0.28138th of 138 |
| Defense (PPA allowed)per play | 0.0696th of 138 | 0.10114th of 138 |
| Success rate, offensevs avg | -0.068126th of 138 | -0.112136th of 138 |
| Success rate allowedvs avg | 0.03396th of 138 | 0.064128th of 138 |
| Explosiveness, offensevs avg | 0.06532nd of 138 | 0.11912th of 138 |
| Explosiveness allowedvs avg | 0.059109th of 138 | 0.057105th of 138 |
| Paceplays/game | 66.479th of 138 | 64.7107th of 138 |
Conditions
- Neutral siteNohome field applies
- Wind4 mphtotal only
- Temperature37Ftotal only
Model cfb-v4 · data as of · Sources: CollegeFootballData (PPA, success rate), ESPN schedule and box scores, Open-Meteo kickoff forecast. How the models work →