WTA Tennis predictions Fri, Oct 23
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
5 matches on this slate · model went 5–0 · 35–16 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Ningbo WTA
Bouzkova
Bejlek
Set at line Bouzkova 60.1% · model 61.0%
Shnaider
Jovic
Set at line Shnaider 46.0% · model 59.0%
Kawa
Rybakina
Set at line Rybakina 90.6% · model 93.1%
Osaka WTA
Siniakova
Stoiana
Set at line Siniakova 69.3% · model 77.4%
Ruzic
Boulter
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bouzkova M. 12, Bejlek S. 7
- Result
- Bouzkova M. won by 5
- Why
- Model 61.0%, first price 60.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -2.5
Bouzkova -2.5 at -109 · opened -3.0
- Model
- 61.0%
- First line
- 60.1%
- Latest
- 60.1%
Moneyline Bejlek S. +139 / Bouzkova M. -170 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 60.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Wed 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Thu 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Siniakova K. 12, Stoiana M. 3
- Result
- Siniakova K. won by 9
- Why
- Model 77.4%, first price 69.3%
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 69.3%
Decimal odds 3.07 / 1.36, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Ruzic A. 12, Boulter K. 15
- Result
- Ruzic A. lost by 3
- Why
- Model 41.3%, first price 39.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.0%
Decimal odds 1.55 / 2.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Shnaider D. 16, Jovic I. 10
- Result
- Shnaider D. won by 6
- Why
- Model 59.0%, first price 46.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- +1.0
- Latest
- +1.0
Shnaider +1.0 at -108
- Model
- 59.0%
- First line
- 46.0%
- Latest
- 46.0%
Moneyline Jovic I. -131 / Shnaider D. +107 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Thu 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Thu 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Kawa K. 8, Rybakina E. 15
- Result
- Rybakina E. won by 7
- Why
- Model 93.1%, first price 90.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -6.5
- First line
- -7.0
- Latest
- -7.0
Rybakina -7.0 at +106
- Model
- 93.1%
- First line
- 90.6%
- Latest
- 90.6%
Moneyline Rybakina E. -1860 / Kawa K. +920 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Thu 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Thu 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →