WTA Tennis predictions Thu, Oct 22
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
6 matches on this slate · model went 4–2 · 35–16 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Ningbo WTA
Set at line Jovic 65.2% · model 69.1%
Set at line Bencic 86.7% · model 90.3%
Set at line Shnaider 59.0% · model 64.9%
Set at line Rybakina 86.4% · model 87.1%
Osaka WTA
Set at line Siniakova 64.1% · model 73.6%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Day K. 4, Ruzic A. 6
- Result
- Day K. lost by 2
- Why
- Model 62.1%, first price 49.7%
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.7%
Decimal odds 1.88 / 1.90, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Paolini J. 7, Jovic I. 12
- Result
- Jovic I. won by 5
- Why
- Model 69.1%, first price 65.2%
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Jovic -3.5 at -109
- Model
- 69.1%
- First line
- 65.2%
- Latest
- 65.2%
Moneyline Jovic I. -217 / Paolini J. +174 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Wed 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Siniakova K. 12, Linette M. 5
- Result
- Siniakova K. won by 7
- Why
- Model 73.6%, first price 64.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.1%
Decimal odds 2.62 / 1.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bencic B. 7, Kawa K. 13
- Result
- Bencic B. lost by 6
- Why
- Model 90.3%, first price 86.7%
Model vs market
- Model
- -6.5
- First line
- -6.5
- Latest
- -6.0
Bencic -6.0 at -115 · opened -6.5
- Model
- 90.3%
- First line
- 86.7%
- Latest
- 86.7%
Moneyline Kawa K. +620 / Bencic B. -980 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 86.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Wed 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Shnaider D. 13, Eala A. 9
- Result
- Shnaider D. won by 4
- Why
- Model 64.9%, first price 59.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.0
Shnaider -2.0 at -108 · opened -2.5
- Model
- 64.9%
- First line
- 60.6%
- Latest
- 59.0%
Moneyline Eala A. +133 / Shnaider D. -162 (vig removed) · opened 60.6%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 60.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Wed 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Kudermetova P. 0, Rybakina E. 5
- Result
- Rybakina E. won by 5
- Why
- Model 87.1%, first price 86.4%
Model vs market
- Model
- -5.5
- First line
- -5.5
- Latest
- -5.5
Rybakina -5.5 at +104
- Model
- 87.1%
- First line
- 85.1%
- Latest
- 86.4%
Moneyline Rybakina E. -950 / Kudermetova P. +600 (vig removed) · opened 85.1%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 85.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Wed 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →