WTA Tennis predictions Sat, Oct 24
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · model went 2–0 · 35–16 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Ningbo WTA
✓ Favorite won
Shnaider
8
43.2% · proj 9.9
Rybakina
13
56.8% · proj 11.4
Projected total games
21.3
RybakinaModelMarket
Spread
-1.5
-3.0
Win
56.8%
63.0%
Our bet
Shnaider +158
✗ Lost
Set at line Shnaider 37.0% · model 43.2%
Osaka WTA
✓ Favorite won
Siniakova
12
68.5% · proj 11.9
Boulter
5
31.5% · proj 8.4
Projected total games
20.3
SiniakovaModelMarket
Win
68.5%
60.4%
Our bet
Siniakova -179
✓ Won
Set at line Siniakova 60.4% · model 68.5%
Market
Siniakova K.
12proj 11.9
Boulter K.
5proj 8.4
Recommended bet
Moneyline
✓ Won
Siniakova K.
-179
+0.56 u
- Final
- Siniakova K. 12, Boulter K. 5
- Result
- Siniakova K. won by 7
- Why
- Model 68.5%, first price 60.4%
Model vs market
Siniakova win
8.1 pp toward Siniakova
- Model
- 68.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.4%
Decimal odds 2.38 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Shnaider D.
8proj 9.9
Rybakina E.
13proj 11.4
Recommended bet
Moneyline
✗ Lost
Shnaider D.
+158
-1.00 u
- Final
- Shnaider D. 8, Rybakina E. 13
- Result
- Shnaider D. lost by 5
- Why
- Model 43.2%, first price 37.0%
Model vs market
Rybakina spread
1.5 toward Shnaider
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Rybakina -3.0 at -106
Rybakina win
6.2 pp toward Shnaider
- Model
- 56.8%
- First line
- 63.0%
- Latest
- 63.0%
Moneyline Rybakina E. -195 / Shnaider D. +158 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Fri 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Fri 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →