WTA Tennis predictions Tue, Oct 20
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
15 matches on this slate · model went 10–4 · 35–16 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Ningbo WTA
Shnaider
Putintseva
Set at line Shnaider 73.1% · model 79.1%
Parks
Bejlek
Set at line Parks 19.5% · model 20.2%
Kudermetova
Bucsa
Set at line Kudermetova 46.1% · model 47.0%
Kalinina
Paolini
Set at line Kalinina 33.1% · model 42.2%
Bencic
Ostapenko
Set at line Bencic 57.1% · model 60.0%
Snigur
Kawa
Set at line Snigur 71.1% · model 84.3%
Alexandrova
Guo
Set at line Alexandrova 75.7% · model 75.9%
Osaka WTA
Birrell
Day
Zhang
Valentova
Set at line Valentova 67.8% · model 74.8%
Linette
Liu
Set at line Linette 39.5% · model 55.5%
Ruzic
Badosa
Stoiana
Oliynykova
Set at line Oliynykova 32.6% · model 49.7%
Sonmez
Joint
Stearns
Siniakova
Set at line Stearns 44.5% · model 46.5%
Kenin
Day
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 39.7%
Decimal odds 2.37 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Zhang S. 12, Valentova T. 13
- Result
- Valentova T. won by 1
- Why
- Model 74.8%, first price 67.8%
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.8%
Decimal odds 1.39 / 2.93, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Linette M. 12, Liu C. 7
- Result
- Linette M. won by 5
- Why
- Model 55.5%, first price 39.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 39.5%
Decimal odds 1.56 / 2.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Ruzic A. 15, Badosa P. 13
- Result
- Badosa P. lost by 2
- Why
- Model 72.1%, first price 70.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.5%
Decimal odds 1.34 / 3.20, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Stoiana M. 12, Oliynykova O. 5
- Result
- Oliynykova O. lost by 7
- Why
- Model 49.7%, first price 32.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.4%
Decimal odds 2.89 / 1.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Shnaider D. 14, Putintseva Y. 11
- Result
- Shnaider D. won by 3
- Why
- Model 79.1%, first price 73.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -4.5
Shnaider -4.5 at -123 · opened -5.0
- Model
- 79.1%
- First line
- 73.1%
- Latest
- 73.1%
Moneyline Putintseva Y. +254 / Shnaider D. -327 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 73.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Parks A. 12, Bejlek S. 16
- Result
- Parks A. lost by 4
- Why
- Model 20.2%, first price 19.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -5.5
- Latest
- -5.5
Bejlek -5.5 at +104
- Model
- 79.8%
- First line
- 80.5%
- Latest
- 80.5%
Moneyline Bejlek S. -540 / Parks A. +390 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Sonmez Z. 15, Joint M. 13
- Result
- Joint M. lost by 2
- Why
- Model 50.2%, first price 48.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.1%
Decimal odds 1.96 / 1.82, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Stearns P. 10, Siniakova K. 10
- Result
- Stearns P. tied
- Why
- Model 46.5%, first price 44.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.5%
Decimal odds 1.70 / 2.12, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Kudermetova P. 13, Bucsa C. 8
- Result
- Kudermetova P. won by 5
- Why
- Model 47.0%, first price 46.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Bucsa -0.5 at -107
- Model
- 53.0%
- First line
- 49.7%
- Latest
- 53.9%
Moneyline Bucsa C. -130 / Kudermetova P. +107 (vig removed) · opened 49.7%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 49.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Kalinina A. 7, Paolini J. 13
- Result
- Kalinina A. lost by 6
- Why
- Model 42.2%, first price 33.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
Paolini -4.0 at -101
- Model
- 57.8%
- First line
- 65.1%
- Latest
- 66.9%
Moneyline Paolini J. -234 / Kalinina A. +188 (vig removed) · opened 65.1%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.8%
Decimal odds 1.86 / 1.92, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bencic B. 7, Ostapenko J. 4
- Result
- Bencic B. won by 3
- Why
- Model 60.0%, first price 57.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -2.0
Bencic -2.0 at -106 · opened -1.5
- Model
- 60.0%
- First line
- 54.6%
- Latest
- 57.1%
Moneyline Ostapenko J. +122 / Bencic B. -149 (vig removed) · opened 54.6%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 54.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Snigur D. 12, Kawa K. 13
- Result
- Snigur D. lost by 1
- Why
- Model 84.3%, first price 71.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- -5.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -5.0
Snigur -5.0 at +102
- Model
- 84.3%
- First line
- 71.1%
- Latest
- 71.1%
Moneyline Kawa K. +230 / Snigur D. -292 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Alexandrova E. 12, Guo H. 5
- Result
- Alexandrova E. won by 7
- Why
- Model 75.9%, first price 75.7%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -5.0
Alexandrova -5.0 at -112
- Model
- 75.9%
- First line
- 75.7%
- Latest
- 75.7%
Moneyline Guo H. +292 / Alexandrova E. -383 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 75.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →