WTA Tennis predictions Wed, Oct 14
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
11 matches on this slate · model went 5–6 · 35–16 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Set at line Kartal 34.6% · model 35.1%
Set at line Frech 9.8% · model 14.2%
Set at line Samsonova 28.6% · model 32.1%
Set at line Chwalinska 34.0% · model 35.3%
Set at line McNally 21.6% · model 24.4%
Set at line Putintseva 25.2% · model 25.3%
Set at line Bartunkova 55.6% · model 72.9%
Set at line Guo 19.6% · model 26.7%
Set at line Pegula 68.7% · model 75.9%
Set at line Snigur 61.4% · model 71.7%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bencic B. 5, Kartal S. 13
- Result
- Kartal S. won by 8
- Why
- Model 35.1%, first price 34.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -3.5
Bencic -3.5 at -121 · opened -4.0
- Model
- 64.9%
- First line
- 67.3%
- Latest
- 65.4%
Moneyline Kartal S. +176 / Bencic B. -218 (vig removed) · opened 67.3%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 67.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Swiatek I. 12, Frech M. 3
- Result
- Frech M. lost by 9
- Why
- Model 14.2%, first price 9.8%
Model vs market
- Model
- -5.5
- First line
- -6.5
- Latest
- -6.5
Swiatek -6.5 at -122
- Model
- 85.8%
- First line
- 89.9%
- Latest
- 90.2%
Moneyline Frech M. +880 / Swiatek I. -1700 (vig removed) · opened 89.9%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 89.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Samsonova L. 11, Svitolina E. 17
- Result
- Samsonova L. lost by 6
- Why
- Model 32.1%, first price 28.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Svitolina -4.5 at -105
- Model
- 67.9%
- First line
- 71.4%
- Latest
- 71.4%
Moneyline Svitolina E. -297 / Samsonova L. +233 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Chwalinska M. 13, Bouzkova M. 8
- Result
- Chwalinska M. won by 5
- Why
- Model 35.3%, first price 34.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
Bouzkova -4.0 at -102
- Model
- 64.7%
- First line
- 66.0%
- Latest
- 66.0%
Moneyline Bouzkova M. -225 / Chwalinska M. +181 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- McNally C. 18, Muchova K. 17
- Result
- McNally C. won by 1
- Why
- Model 24.4%, first price 21.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -5.0
Muchova -5.0 at -105
- Model
- 75.6%
- First line
- 78.4%
- Latest
- 78.4%
Moneyline Muchova K. -461 / McNally C. +342 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 78.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Jovic -4.5 at -105
- Model
- 74.8%
- First line
- 72.9%
- Latest
- 72.9%
Moneyline Jovic I. -324 / Yastremska D. +252 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Shnaider D. 12, Putintseva Y. 4
- Result
- Putintseva Y. lost by 8
- Why
- Model 25.3%, first price 25.2%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -5.0
Shnaider -5.0 at +106
- Model
- 74.7%
- First line
- 74.8%
- Latest
- 74.8%
Moneyline Putintseva Y. +279 / Shnaider D. -364 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bartunkova N. 9, Paolini J. 13
- Result
- Bartunkova N. lost by 4
- Why
- Model 72.9%, first price 55.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Bartunkova -1.5 at -112
- Model
- 72.9%
- First line
- 55.6%
- Latest
- 55.6%
Moneyline Paolini J. +115 / Bartunkova N. -140 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Guo H. 17, Volynets K. 16
- Result
- Guo H. won by 1
- Why
- Model 26.7%, first price 19.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -5.5
- Latest
- -5.5
Volynets -5.5 at -102
- Model
- 73.3%
- First line
- 80.4%
- Latest
- 80.4%
Moneyline Volynets K. -535 / Guo H. +387 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Pegula J. 15, Ostapenko J. 15
- Result
- Pegula J. tied
- Why
- Model 75.9%, first price 68.7%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Pegula -3.5 at -116
- Model
- 75.9%
- First line
- 68.7%
- Latest
- 68.7%
Moneyline Ostapenko J. +205 / Pegula J. -258 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Snigur D. 8, Tjen J. 13
- Result
- Snigur D. lost by 5
- Why
- Model 71.7%, first price 61.4%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Snigur -3.0 at -105
- Model
- 71.7%
- First line
- 61.4%
- Latest
- 61.4%
Moneyline Tjen J. +147 / Snigur D. -181 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →