WTA Tennis predictions Tue, Oct 13
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
11 matches on this slate · model went 6–5 · 35–16 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Bucsa
Yastremska
Set at line Bucsa 45.9% · model 55.2%
Samsonova
Siniakova
Set at line Siniakova 47.2% · model 56.7%
Volynets
Birrell
Set at line Birrell 37.0% · model 44.5%
Chwalinska
Sherif
Set at line Chwalinska 78.7% · model 81.9%
Cirstea
Guo
Set at line Cirstea 84.6% · model 85.6%
Shnaider
Boulter
Set at line Shnaider 77.8% · model 89.2%
Sonmez
Putintseva
Set at line Putintseva 55.6% · model 60.0%
Mertens
Snigur
Set at line Snigur 36.0% · model 40.3%
Bartunkova
Tagger
Set at line Bartunkova 67.5% · model 77.3%
Ostapenko
Kasatkina
Set at line Ostapenko 56.6% · model 58.4%
Kostyuk
Sakkari
Set at line Kostyuk 63.0% · model 66.6%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bucsa C. 14, Yastremska D. 17
- Result
- Bucsa C. lost by 3
- Why
- Model 55.2%, first price 45.9%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +1.5
- Latest
- +1.0
Bucsa +1.0 at -103 · opened +1.5
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- 44.0%
- Latest
- 45.9%
Moneyline Yastremska D. -131 / Bucsa C. +108 (vig removed) · opened 44.0%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 44.0%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Samsonova L. 17, Siniakova K. 10
- Result
- Siniakova K. lost by 7
- Why
- Model 56.7%, first price 47.2%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +0.5
Siniakova +0.5 at -108
- Model
- 56.7%
- First line
- 45.6%
- Latest
- 47.2%
Moneyline Siniakova K. +102 / Samsonova L. -124 (vig removed) · opened 45.6%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 45.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Volynets K. 19, Birrell K. 16
- Result
- Birrell K. lost by 3
- Why
- Model 44.5%, first price 37.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.5
Volynets -3.5 at -104 · opened -3.0
- Model
- 55.5%
- First line
- 62.9%
- Latest
- 63.0%
Moneyline Birrell K. +158 / Volynets K. -195 (vig removed) · opened 62.9%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 62.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Chwalinska M. 12, Sherif M. 5
- Result
- Chwalinska M. won by 7
- Why
- Model 81.9%, first price 78.7%
Model vs market
- Model
- -5.5
- First line
- -5.5
- Latest
- -5.5
Chwalinska -5.5 at -115
- Model
- 81.9%
- First line
- 78.3%
- Latest
- 78.7%
Moneyline Sherif M. +348 / Chwalinska M. -470 (vig removed) · opened 78.3%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 78.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Cirstea S. 17, Guo H. 15
- Result
- Cirstea S. won by 2
- Why
- Model 85.6%, first price 84.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -6.5
- First line
- -6.0
- Latest
- -6.0
Cirstea -6.0 at +103
- Model
- 85.6%
- First line
- 86.1%
- Latest
- 84.6%
Moneyline Guo H. +520 / Cirstea S. -780 (vig removed) · opened 86.1%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 86.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Shnaider D. 12, Boulter K. 4
- Result
- Shnaider D. won by 8
- Why
- Model 89.2%, first price 77.8%
Model vs market
- Model
- -6.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -5.0
Shnaider -5.0 at -108
- Model
- 89.2%
- First line
- 74.8%
- Latest
- 77.8%
Moneyline Boulter K. +329 / Shnaider D. -441 (vig removed) · opened 74.8%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 74.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Sonmez Z. 15, Putintseva Y. 19
- Result
- Putintseva Y. won by 4
- Why
- Model 60.0%, first price 55.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -1.0
- Latest
- -2.0
Putintseva -2.0 at -107 · opened -1.0
- Model
- 60.0%
- First line
- 52.4%
- Latest
- 55.6%
Moneyline Putintseva Y. -140 / Sonmez Z. +115 (vig removed) · opened 52.4%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 52.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Mertens E. 9, Snigur D. 13
- Result
- Snigur D. won by 4
- Why
- Model 40.3%, first price 36.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Mertens -3.5 at -110
- Model
- 59.7%
- First line
- 66.0%
- Latest
- 64.0%
Moneyline Snigur D. +165 / Mertens E. -204 (vig removed) · opened 66.0%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 66.0%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bartunkova N. 15, Tagger L. 13
- Result
- Bartunkova N. won by 2
- Why
- Model 77.3%, first price 67.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
Bartunkova -4.0 at +103
- Model
- 77.3%
- First line
- 65.2%
- Latest
- 67.5%
Moneyline Tagger L. +194 / Bartunkova N. -242 (vig removed) · opened 65.2%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 65.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Ostapenko J. 12, Kasatkina D. 2
- Result
- Ostapenko J. won by 10
- Why
- Model 58.4%, first price 56.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -2.0
Ostapenko -2.0 at -110 · opened -1.5
- Model
- 58.4%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Latest
- 56.6%
Moneyline Kasatkina D. +120 / Ostapenko J. -146 (vig removed) · opened 55.1%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Kostyuk M. 10, Sakkari M. 16
- Result
- Kostyuk M. lost by 6
- Why
- Model 66.6%, first price 63.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Kostyuk -3.0 at -112
- Model
- 66.6%
- First line
- 63.0%
- Latest
- 63.0%
Moneyline Sakkari M. +158 / Kostyuk M. -195 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →