ATP Tennis predictions Fri, Oct 23
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
12 matches on this slate · model went 8–4 · 50–35 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
Games
Almaty
Set at line Basilashvili 55.0% · model 57.4%
Set at line Duckworth 22.0% · model 25.5%
Set at line Atmane 17.9% · model 18.7%
Set at line Khachanov 46.0% · model 55.2%
Brussels
Set at line Cerundolo 60.4% · model 67.1%
Set at line Lehecka 69.9% · model 75.0%
Lyon
Set at line Nakashima 62.5% · model 69.3%
Set at line Musetti 66.4% · model 72.8%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Mannarino A. 4, Basilashvili N. 12
- Result
- Basilashvili N. won by 8
- Why
- Model 57.4%, first price 55.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.0%
Decimal odds 1.72 / 2.10, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Duckworth J. 7, Tsitsipas S. 12
- Result
- Duckworth J. lost by 5
- Why
- Model 25.5%, first price 22.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 78.0%
Decimal odds 1.21 / 4.28, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Atmane T. 8, Medvedev D. 12
- Result
- Atmane T. lost by 4
- Why
- Model 18.7%, first price 17.9%
Model vs market
- Model
- 81.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 82.1%
Decimal odds 1.15 / 5.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Cerundolo F. 12, Chidekh C. 6
- Result
- Cerundolo F. won by 6
- Why
- Model 67.1%, first price 60.4%
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.4%
Decimal odds 2.38 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Paul T. 15, Moutet C. 13
- Result
- Moutet C. lost by 2
- Why
- Model 31.0%, first price 25.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.5%
Decimal odds 3.71 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Fritz T. 13, Altmaier D. 8
- Result
- Fritz T. won by 5
- Why
- Model 86.3%, first price 74.3%
Model vs market
- Model
- 86.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.3%
Decimal odds 3.68 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Lehecka J. 13, Griekspoor T. 16
- Result
- Lehecka J. lost by 3
- Why
- Model 75.0%, first price 69.9%
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 69.9%
Decimal odds 3.13 / 1.35, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Khachanov K. 18, Bublik A. 18
- Result
- Khachanov K. tied
- Why
- Model 55.2%, first price 46.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 45.9%
Decimal odds 1.75 / 2.06, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Michelsen A. 10, Fils A. 13
- Result
- Fils A. won by 3
- Why
- Model 63.1%, first price 61.9%
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.9%
Decimal odds 1.52 / 2.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Nakashima B. 14, Cobolli F. 16
- Result
- Nakashima B. lost by 2
- Why
- Model 69.3%, first price 62.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.5%
Decimal odds 2.52 / 1.51, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bergs Z. 9, Struff J. 13
- Result
- Bergs Z. lost by 4
- Why
- Model 67.3%, first price 65.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.1%
Decimal odds 2.70 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Musetti L. 19, Van Assche L. 17
- Result
- Musetti L. won by 2
- Why
- Model 72.8%, first price 66.4%
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.4%
Decimal odds 2.81 / 1.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →