ATP Tennis predictions Thu, Oct 22
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
12 matches on this slate · model went 8–3 · 50–35 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
Games
Almaty
Set at line Bellucci 50.0% · model 52.3%
Set at line Khachanov 67.9% · model 73.1%
Set at line Medvedev 89.2% · model 92.8%
Set at line Marozsan 28.9% · model 35.5%
Brussels
Set at line Lehecka 72.6% · model 74.2%
Set at line Michelsen 87.6% · model 90.4%
Lyon
Set at line Altmaier 47.3% · model 49.4%
Set at line Vacherot 56.6% · model 58.1%
Set at line Wawrinka 30.0% · model 33.4%
Set at line Nakashima 64.4% · model 75.3%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bellucci M. 19, Atmane T. 20
- Result
- Bellucci M. lost by 1
- Why
- Model 52.3%, first price 50.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.0%
Decimal odds 1.89 / 1.89, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Khachanov K. 17, Machac T. 14
- Result
- Khachanov K. won by 3
- Why
- Model 73.1%, first price 67.9%
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.9%
Decimal odds 2.94 / 1.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Shimabukuro S. 3, Medvedev D. 12
- Result
- Medvedev D. won by 9
- Why
- Model 92.8%, first price 89.2%
Model vs market
- Model
- 92.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 89.2%
Decimal odds 1.06 / 8.80, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Lehecka J. 12, Collignon R. 6
- Result
- Lehecka J. won by 6
- Why
- Model 74.2%, first price 72.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.6%
Decimal odds 3.44 / 1.30, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Altmaier D. 12, Gojo B. 7
- Result
- Altmaier D. won by 5
- Why
- Model 49.4%, first price 47.3%
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 52.6%
Decimal odds 1.79 / 1.99, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Van Assche L. 14, Vacherot V. 14
- Result
- Vacherot V. tied
- Why
- Model 58.1%, first price 56.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.6%
Decimal odds 1.67 / 2.18, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Michelsen A. 12, Goffin D. 7
- Result
- Michelsen A. won by 5
- Why
- Model 90.4%, first price 87.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- 90.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 87.6%
Decimal odds 7.54 / 1.07, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Fritz T. 13, Herbert P. 7
- Result
- Fritz T. won by 6
- Why
- Model 92.5%, first price 80.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- 92.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 80.6%
Decimal odds 4.86 / 1.17, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Marozsan F. –, Bublik A. –
- Result
- walkover
- Why
- Model 35.5%, first price 28.9%
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.1%
Decimal odds 1.33 / 3.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bergs Z. 12, Dzumhur D. 6
- Result
- Bergs Z. won by 6
- Why
- Model 77.8%, first price 77.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.1%
Decimal odds 4.10 / 1.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Wawrinka S. 6, Cobolli F. 12
- Result
- Wawrinka S. lost by 6
- Why
- Model 33.4%, first price 30.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.0%
Decimal odds 1.35 / 3.15, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Nakashima B. 12, Jacquet K. 7
- Result
- Nakashima B. won by 5
- Why
- Model 75.3%, first price 64.4%
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.4%
Decimal odds 2.66 / 1.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →