NFL
Model record
48–27
favorite straight-up · last 30 days
64.0%
favorite win rate (75 graded)
10.3
points: average miss on the projected margin
11.1
points: average miss on the projected total
Week by week
favorite won · favorite lost
Calibration
50%–60%
62.5% n=32
60%–70%
59.4% n=32
bar = how often the favorite actually won · notch = what the model predicted
Recently graded
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5, 2026 → | |||
| ATL | ✗ miss | 53.0% | BAL 30, ATL 23 |
| DEN | ✓ hit | 56.4% | DEN 23, LAC 17 |
| DET | ✓ hit | 61.7% | DET 45, ARI 21 |
| SEA | ✗ miss | 65.6% | SF 32, SEA 29 |
| GB | ✓ hit | 58.0% | CHI 7, GB 31 |
| CIN | ✓ hit | 60.7% | CIN 31, MIA 24 |
| NYJ | ✓ hit | 58.6% | CLE 12, NYJ 17 |
| PIT | ✓ hit | 52.6% | IND 22, PIT 34 |
| NE | ✓ hit | 68.7% | LV 17, NE 45 |
| HOU | ✓ hit | 63.3% | HOU 26, TEN 3 |
| MIN | ✓ hit | 54.4% | MIN 23, NO 13 |
| JAX | ✓ hit | 64.0% | PHI 17, JAX 19 |
| DAL | ✗ miss | 62.8% | TB 24, DAL 16 |
| Week 4, 2026 → | |||
| NO | ✗ miss | 54.1% | ATL 45, NO 24 |
| DET | ✗ miss | 61.5% | DET 26, CAR 32 |
| SF | ✓ hit | 64.9% | DEN 14, SF 24 |
| KC | ✓ hit | 65.8% | KC 30, LV 27 |
| SEA | ✓ hit | 74.5% | LAC 23, SEA 30 |
| MIN | ✓ hit | 66.0% | MIA 10, MIN 15 |
| NYG | ✓ hit | 55.8% | ARI 24, NYG 36 |
| HOU | ✗ miss | 64.8% | DAL 34, HOU 30 |
| GB | ✓ hit | 63.9% | GB 17, TB 14 |
| JAX | ✓ hit | 53.5% | JAX 22, CIN 17 |
| LA | ✓ hit | 51.9% | LA 24, PHI 20 |
| BUF | ✗ miss | 60.4% | NE 29, BUF 26 |
| BAL | ✓ hit | 80.4% | TEN 18, BAL 24 |
| CHI | ✓ hit | 61.0% | NYJ 12, CHI 23 |
| WAS | ✗ miss | 53.2% | IND 30, WAS 13 |
| PIT | ✗ miss | 52.8% | PIT 24, CLE 27 |
3 earlier slates
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3, 2026 → | |||
| PHI | ✗ miss | 52.9% | PHI 7, CHI 27 |
| LA | ✗ miss | 50.9% | LA 26, DEN 30 |
| SF | ✓ hit | 69.9% | ARI 30, SF 36 |
| BAL | ✓ hit | 66.7% | BAL 34, DAL 31 |
| NO | ✗ miss | 66.4% | LV 35, NO 27 |
| TB | ✗ miss | 51.0% | MIN 23, TB 16 |
| CAR | ✗ miss | 52.4% | CAR 18, CLE 21 |
| PIT | ✓ hit | 54.0% | CIN 27, PIT 30 |
| IND | ✓ hit | 51.7% | HOU 17, IND 19 |
| KC | ✓ hit | 60.4% | KC 24, MIA 10 |
| BUF | ✓ hit | 73.9% | LAC 16, BUF 24 |
| JAX | ✓ hit | 52.0% | NE 6, JAX 35 |
| DET | ✓ hit | 75.7% | NYJ 24, DET 31 |
| SEA | ✗ miss | 63.7% | SEA 31, WAS 33 |
| NYG | ✓ hit | 61.7% | TEN 7, NYG 12 |
| GB | ✗ miss | 69.0% | ATL 35, GB 14 |
| Week 2, 2026 → | |||
| LA | ✓ hit | 79.1% | NYG 6, LA 28 |
| KC | ✓ hit | 68.7% | IND 30, KC 33 |
| DEN | ✓ hit | 54.5% | JAX 13, DEN 20 |
| LAC | ✗ miss | 79.0% | LV 26, LAC 14 |
| SF | ✓ hit | 75.8% | MIA 13, SF 35 |
| SEA | ✓ hit | 52.1% | SEA 31, ARI 7 |
| DAL | ✓ hit | 56.8% | WAS 20, DAL 37 |
| ATL | ✗ miss | 57.1% | CAR 34, ATL 3 |
| HOU | ✗ miss | 60.5% | CIN 20, HOU 6 |
| TB | ✗ miss | 72.1% | CLE 23, TB 19 |
| GB | ✓ hit | 67.5% | GB 20, NYJ 17 |
| CHI | ✗ miss | 63.5% | MIN 9, CHI 3 |
| PHI | ✓ hit | 75.2% | PHI 24, TEN 20 |
| NE | ✓ hit | 60.4% | PIT 3, NE 20 |
| BAL | ✗ miss | 76.0% | NO 24, BAL 17 |
| BUF | ✓ hit | 64.2% | DET 31, BUF 41 |
| Week 1, 2026 → | |||
| KC | ✓ hit | 50.6% | DEN 10, KC 31 |
| LAC | ✗ miss | 66.0% | ARI 26, LAC 14 |
| NYG | ✓ hit | 55.7% | DAL 20, NYG 28 |
| GB | ✗ miss | 51.0% | GB 22, MIN 39 |
| MIA | ✗ miss | 54.4% | MIA 13, LV 27 |
| PHI | ✓ hit | 71.9% | WAS 22, PHI 24 |
| PIT | ✓ hit | 62.8% | ATL 13, PIT 20 |
| IND | ✗ miss | 50.8% | BAL 41, IND 23 |
| BUF | ✓ hit | 53.3% | BUF 36, HOU 31 |
| CHI | ✓ hit | 56.6% | CHI 59, CAR 37 |
| JAX | ✓ hit | 77.4% | CLE 10, JAX 34 |
| DET | ✓ hit | 74.5% | NO 30, DET 31 |
| TEN | ✗ miss | 62.7% | NYJ 23, TEN 10 |
| CIN | ✓ hit | 56.2% | TB 27, CIN 33 |
| SEA | ✓ hit | 56.8% | NE 10, SEA 13 |
| LA | ✗ miss | 65.8% | SF 27, LA 7 |
Player props calibration
0%–10%
5.4% n=684
10%–20%
13.2% n=561
20%–30%
23.5% n=311
30%–50%
36.3% n=226
50%–70%
68.0% n=25
bar = how often it actually happened · notch = what the model predicted · pooled across every probability market, because per market there are too few to bucket
| Market | Graded | Predicted | Actually happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 1810 | 16.2% | 15.8% |
Player props accuracy
| Market | Graded | Avg miss | Bias | Projected vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1726 | 15.83 | -0.40 | 20.16 vs 20.56 |
| Targets | 1710 | 1.65 | -0.08 | 2.73 vs 2.80 |
| Receptions | 1697 | 1.25 | -0.05 | 1.85 vs 1.90 |
| Rushing Yards | 875 | 10.33 | +1.42 | 17.86 vs 16.44 |
| Carries | 768 | 2.09 | +0.11 | 4.61 vs 4.50 |
| Passing Yards | 148 | 59.31 | -1.59 | 226.95 vs 228.55 |
| Passing TDs | 148 | 0.86 | -0.07 | 1.45 vs 1.52 |
| Pass Attempts | 148 | 6.94 | -0.28 | 31.68 vs 31.95 |
| Interceptions | 148 | 0.66 | +0.01 | 0.65 vs 0.64 |
| Completions | 148 | 4.58 | -0.31 | 20.36 vs 20.66 |
Last 60 days. Bias is projected minus actual: + means the model projects high, and a faded bias is within noise. Not graded: 1,720 (1,720 did not play).