NFL predictions Week 10, 2026
Win probabilities, projected scores and totals for every NFL game, plus player stat lines. Methodology →
14 games on this slate · 38–24 last 30 days →
Games
#20
Commanders
#19
Giants
Biggest factor: Rating gap · NYG +0.3 pts
#10
Patriots
#8
Lions
Biggest factor: Special teams · DET +0.6 pts
#1
Bills
#26
Jets
Biggest factor: Rating gap · BUF +12.7 pts
#22
Panthers
#25
Saints
Biggest factor: Rating gap · CAR +1.4 pts
#14
Texans
#23
Browns
Biggest factor: Rating gap · HOU +6.6 pts
#2
Jaguars
#32
Titans
Biggest factor: Rating gap · JAX +13.3 pts
#9
Chiefs
#24
Falcons
Biggest factor: Rating gap · KC +5.4 pts
#31
Dolphins
#27
Colts
Biggest factor: Special teams · IND +1.3 pts
#18
Vikings
#6
Packers
Biggest factor: Rating gap · GB +5.0 pts
#7
Rams
#30
Cardinals
Biggest factor: Rating gap · LA +8.1 pts
#3
Seahawks
#29
Raiders
Biggest factor: Rating gap · SEA +9.4 pts
#4
49ers
#16
Cowboys
Biggest factor: Rating gap · SF +6.2 pts
#15
Steelers
#11
Bengals
Biggest factor: Rating gap · CIN +0.9 pts
#28
Chargers
#17
Ravens
Biggest factor: Rating gap · BAL +3.5 pts
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Jayden Daniels
|
30.6 | 19.8 | 218 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
|
J.J. McCarthy
|
28.7 | 18.0 | 216 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Rachaad White
|
12.6 | 53.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 18.3 | 32% |
|
Cam Skattebo
|
11.2 | 48.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 9.8 | 36% |
|
Austin Ekeler
|
9.4 | 43.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 10.9 | 33% |
|
Devin Singletary
|
9.3 | 41.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 15.2 | 28% |
|
Gregory Desrosiers
|
2.8 | 12.4 | – | – | – | 9% |
|
Patrick Ricard
|
– | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Malik Nabers
|
8.7 | 5.5 | 68.0 | 32% |
|
Stefon Diggs
|
6.6 | 4.6 | 52.4 | 29% |
|
Antonio Williams
|
5.9 | 3.8 | 43.8 | 22% |
|
Treylon Burks
|
5.1 | 2.9 | 39.6 | 18% |
|
Malachi Fields
|
4.5 | 2.6 | 35.1 | 19% |
|
Darnell Mooney
|
3.2 | 1.8 | 24.2 | 13% |
|
Van Jefferson
|
3.2 | 1.8 | 23.2 | 13% |
|
Jalin Hyatt
|
0.9 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 3% |
|
Luke McCaffrey
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 3% |
|
Charlie Jones
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 1% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Isaiah Likely
|
6.5 | 4.5 | 48.7 | 35% |
|
Chig Okonkwo
|
5.2 | 3.7 | 38.4 | 16% |
|
Theo Johnson
|
1.2 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 6% |
|
Colson Yankoff
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2% |
|
John Bates
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2% |
|
Thomas Fidone II
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2% |
|
Ben Sinnott
|
0.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1% |
|
Chris Manhertz
|
– | – | 0.1 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
WAS
Craig ReynoldsRBDevin NealRBJacory Croskey-MerrittRBJeremy McNicholsRBDyami BrownWRJaden BradleyWRJaylin LaneWRNick DeGennaroWRTerry McLaurinWRJack WestoverTEQuentin MooreTE
NYG
Eric GrayRBGrant FinleyRBPhil MafahRBTyrone Tracy Jr.RBBraxton BerriosWRCalvin Austin IIIWRDalen CambreWRDontae FlemingWRGunner OlszewskiWR
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.3
- Special teams +0.1
- QB history 0.0
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings +0.1
- Scoring output -0.4
- QB history -0.1
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- NYG -2.4
- First line
- NYG -1.5
- Latest
- NYG -2.5
- Model
- 57.2%
- First line
- 51.7%
- Latest
- 53.2%
Moneyline NYG -125 / WAS +105 (vig removed)
- Model
- 43.8
- First line
- 44.5
- Latest
- 41.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 51.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play NYG +0.3
- Home field NYG +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats 0.0
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams NYG +0.1
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses +0.1
- Points scoredrecent points for and against -0.4
- QB history -0.1
Team comparison
|
WAS |
NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | -1.120th of 32 | -0.719th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | -0.00316th of 32 | -0.02119th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | 0.03023rd of 32 | 0.00518th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | 0.05111th of 32 | 0.0609th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | -0.03520th of 32 | -0.03119th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| WAS | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | J. Daniels | J. McCarthy |
| QB ratingranks 19 and 20 of 32 | -0.035 | -0.031 |
Conditions
- VenueMetLife Stadiumhome field in the margin
- RoofOutdoorsindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelWAS 4, NYG 4not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model200 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Jared Goff
|
30.6 | 21.2 | 247 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
|
Drake Maye
|
29.4 | 19.7 | 242 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Jahmyr Gibbs
|
18.4 | 88.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 26.7 | 69% |
|
Corey Kiner
|
11.5 | 48.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 26% |
|
TreVeyon Henderson
|
9.6 | 42.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.4 | 33% |
|
Sione Vaki
|
3.3 | 13.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 12% |
|
Lan Larison
|
1.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 9.8 | 8% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Amon-Ra St. Brown
|
10.8 | 7.9 | 88.2 | 49% |
|
A.J. Brown
|
5.9 | 3.8 | 51.3 | 30% |
|
Jameson Williams
|
5.3 | 3.2 | 49.7 | 29% |
|
DeMario Douglas
|
5.1 | 3.4 | 41.8 | 18% |
|
Mack Hollins
|
4.4 | 2.8 | 36.0 | 18% |
|
Efton Chism III
|
3.5 | 2.5 | 28.1 | 16% |
|
Isaac TeSlaa
|
2.1 | 1.2 | 16.4 | 12% |
|
Kyle Williams
|
1.5 | 0.8 | 12.5 | 8% |
|
Tay Martin
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2% |
|
DeAndre Carter
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 2% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Sam LaPorta
|
5.5 | 4.0 | 44.8 | 30% |
|
Hunter Henry
|
3.8 | 2.7 | 31.4 | 21% |
|
Eli Raridon
|
3.9 | 2.6 | 30.5 | 17% |
|
Tyler Conklin
|
0.8 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 3% |
|
Brock Wright
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 3% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
NE
Myles MontgomeryRBReggie GilliamRBRhamondre StevensonRBTerrell JenningsRBChandler BrayboyWRKyle DixonWRRomeo DoubsWRRyan MillerWRJulian HillTETanner ArkinTETanner ConnerTE
DET
Isiah PachecoRBJabari SmallRBDominic LovettWRKendrick LawWRLucky JacksonWRTom KennedyWRJackson MeeksTEMiles KitselmanTEThomas GordonTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +1.1
- Team ratings +0.5
- Special teams +0.6
- QB history -0.1
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratingsTop 2% +2.1
- Scoring outputTop 7% +3.0
- QB history +0.2
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- DET -2.1
- First line
- NE -1.5
- Latest
- DET -2.5
- Model
- 56.3%
- First line
- 45.7%
- Latest
- 58.3%
Moneyline DET -155 / NE +130 (vig removed)
- Model
- 49.3
- First line
- 49.5
- Latest
- 51.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 45.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play DET +0.54
- Home fieldneutral site: half the usual edge DET +1.06
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats NE +0.13
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit NE +0.02
- Special teams DET +0.62
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses +2.1
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +3.0
- QB history +0.2
- Roundingpublished scores are rounded to 0.1 -0.1
Team comparison
|
NE |
DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 2.510th of 32 | 3.78th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.0606th of 32 | 0.0764th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | 0.01720th of 32 | 0.02221st of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | 0.0767th of 32 | 0.1443rd of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.2095th of 32 | 0.1517th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| NE | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | D. Maye | J. Goff |
| QB ratingranks 7 and 5 of 32 | +0.209 | +0.151 |
Conditions
- VenueFC Bayern Munich Stadiumneutral site: half home edge
- RoofDomeindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelNE 7, DET 7not in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Josh Allen
|
27.9 | 18.8 | 229 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
|
Geno Smith
|
28.7 | 19.1 | 199 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
James Cook
|
22.2 | 107 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 11.4 | 68% |
|
Braelon Allen
|
9.9 | 41 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 14.2 | 25% |
|
Breece Hall
|
9.7 | 41 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 17.1 | 23% |
|
Ray Davis
|
2.3 | 10 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4.3 | 10% |
|
Ty Johnson
|
1.7 | 7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 17.5 | 15% |
|
Isaiah Davis
|
1.4 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 5% |
|
Kene Nwangwu
|
0.3 | 1 | – | – | 0.2 | 1% |
|
Andrew Beck
|
0.1 | 0 | – | – | 0.1 | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Garrett Wilson
|
7.2 | 4.4 | 52.5 | 20% |
|
Adonai Mitchell
|
5.7 | 2.7 | 39.0 | 15% |
|
Khalil Shakir
|
4.6 | 3.4 | 38.9 | 22% |
|
Omar Cooper Jr.
|
4.5 | 3.2 | 38.9 | 16% |
|
DJ Moore
|
4.6 | 2.8 | 37.6 | 24% |
|
Keon Coleman
|
4.2 | 2.5 | 34.2 | 25% |
|
Skyler Bell
|
2.3 | 1.4 | 17.4 | 12% |
|
Tim Patrick
|
1.3 | 0.8 | 9.6 | 5% |
|
Isaiah Williams
|
0.9 | 0.6 | 6.6 | 4% |
|
Greg Dortch
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1% |
|
Trent Sherfield
|
0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Dalton Kincaid
|
3.9 | 2.8 | 34.6 | 20% |
|
Mason Taylor
|
3.4 | 2.3 | 22.5 | 11% |
|
Kenyon Sadiq
|
2.9 | 2.0 | 21.1 | 10% |
|
Dawson Knox
|
2.6 | 1.7 | 20.0 | 19% |
|
Jackson Hawes
|
0.7 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 4% |
|
Jelani Woods
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2% |
|
Keleki Latu
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2% |
|
Jeremy Ruckert
|
0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
BUF
Brock LampeRBFrank Gore Jr.RBJa'Mori MaclinWRJosh PalmerWRStephen GosnellWRTyrell ShaversWR
NYJ
Al-Jay HendersonRBChip TrayanumRBArian SmithWRJamaal PritchettWRJoseph ManjackWRSterling ShepardWR
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratingsBottom 1% -12.7
- Special teams +0.5
- QB history +0.8
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings +1.0
- Scoring output +2.3
- QB history +0.9
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- BUF -9.3
- First line
- BUF -7.5
- Latest
- BUF -8.5
- Model
- 73.8%
- First line
- 77.7%
- Latest
- 79.1%
Moneyline NYJ +360 / BUF -470 (vig removed)
- Model
- 48.3
- First line
- 50.5
- Latest
- 50.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 77.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play BUF +12.7
- Home field NYJ +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats NYJ +0.8
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams NYJ +0.5
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses +1.0
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +2.3
- QB history +0.9
Team comparison
|
BUF |
NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 7.71st of 32 | -4.528th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.1261st of 32 | -0.06226th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.0386th of 32 | 0.05529th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | 0.03714th of 32 | 0.0956th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.1508th of 32 | 0.02717th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| BUF | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | J. Allen | G. Smith |
| QB ratingranks 17 and 8 of 32 | +0.150 | +0.027 |
Conditions
- VenueMetLife Stadiumhome field in the margin
- RoofOutdoorsindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelBUF 6, NYJ 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model280 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Tyler Shough
|
32.1 | 21.0 | 227 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
|
Bryce Young
|
33.2 | 20.7 | 220 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Chuba Hubbard
|
14.5 | 61.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 25.4 | 42% |
|
Audric Estimé
|
11.1 | 47.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 33% |
|
Alvin Kamara
|
8.0 | 34.8 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 23.4 | 35% |
|
CJ Donaldson
|
3.1 | 13.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 11% |
|
AJ Dillon
|
3.0 | 12.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 9% |
|
Trevor Etienne
|
1.8 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 6% |
|
Anthony Tyus III
|
0.5 | 2.1 | – | – | – | 2% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Chris Olave
|
9.0 | 5.7 | 73.6 | 32% |
|
Tetairoa McMillan
|
7.9 | 4.8 | 65.3 | 31% |
|
Jalen Coker
|
5.7 | 3.9 | 47.4 | 25% |
|
Devaughn Vele
|
4.9 | 3.3 | 37.5 | 22% |
|
Jordyn Tyson
|
4.8 | 3.1 | 36.0 | 20% |
|
John Metchie III
|
3.0 | 1.9 | 20.7 | 11% |
|
Bryce Lance
|
2.2 | 1.2 | 14.7 | 10% |
|
Brycen Tremayne
|
1.1 | 0.7 | 9.0 | 4% |
|
Barion Brown
|
0.9 | 0.6 | 8.1 | 5% |
|
David Moore
|
0.4 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 3% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Darren Waller
|
4.8 | 3.3 | 38.2 | 21% |
|
Tommy Tremble
|
3.7 | 2.5 | 26.1 | 19% |
|
Juwan Johnson
|
3.2 | 2.2 | 25.2 | 17% |
|
Mitchell Evans
|
1.8 | 1.3 | 13.9 | 8% |
|
Noah Fant
|
1.6 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 7% |
|
Ja'Tavion Sanders
|
0.8 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 3% |
|
Oscar Delp
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 3% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
CAR
Ahmani MarshallRBJonathon BrooksRBCasey WashingtonWRChris Brazzell IIWRIhmir Smith-MarsetteWRJa'Seem ReedWRXavier LegetteWR
NO
Jarquez HunterRBTravis EtienneRBTy ChandlerRBZamir WhiteRBCedric TillmanWRJa'Lynn PolkWRJalen CropperWRKevin Austin Jr.WRMason TiptonWRMoliki MatavaoTEStone SmarttTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings -1.4
- Special teams 0.0
- QB history +0.1
- League baseline 46.6
- Team ratings 0.0
- Scoring output +0.3
- QB history +0.1
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- NO -0.9
- First line
- CAR -1.5
- Latest
- NO -1.5
- Model
- 52.8%
- First line
- 46.8%
- Latest
- 49.6%
Moneyline NO -108 / CAR -112 (vig removed)
- Model
- 47.1
- First line
- 47.5
- Latest
- 48.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 46.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play CAR +1.4
- Home field NO +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats NO +0.1
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams 0.0
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof46.6
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses 0.0
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +0.3
- QB history +0.1
Team comparison
|
CAR |
NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | -2.221st of 32 | -3.525th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | -0.01117th of 32 | -0.04924th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | 0.03425th of 32 | 0.02622nd of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | -0.00921st of 32 | -0.00418th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | -0.00318th of 32 | -0.05322nd of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| CAR | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | B. Young | T. Shough |
| QB ratingranks 22 and 18 of 32 | -0.003 | -0.053 |
Conditions
- VenueCaesars Superdomehome field in the margin
- RoofDomeindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelCAR 7, NO 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model650 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
C.J. Stroud
|
32.8 | 21.1 | 242 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
|
Deshaun Watson
|
29.2 | 19.2 | 207 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Quinshon Judkins
|
15.2 | 56.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 12.0 | 38% |
|
Woody Marks
|
10.9 | 43.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 15.0 | 28% |
|
David Montgomery
|
6.6 | 27.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 25% |
|
Dylan Sampson
|
4.2 | 16.3 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 25.7 | 19% |
|
Emari Demercado
|
3.0 | 14.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 5.3 | 11% |
|
Jaleel McLaughlin
|
1.6 | 7.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 6% |
|
Michael Burton
|
0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1% |
|
Dare Ogunbowale
|
0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Denzel Boston
|
7.1 | 4.1 | 55.7 | 27% |
|
Nico Collins
|
5.5 | 3.5 | 49.7 | 27% |
|
KC Concepcion
|
5.9 | 3.9 | 45.0 | 23% |
|
Xavier Hutchinson
|
5.2 | 2.9 | 35.8 | 21% |
|
Kayshon Boutte
|
3.6 | 2.3 | 32.5 | 19% |
|
Tank Dell
|
3.8 | 2.3 | 31.4 | 20% |
|
Marvin Harrison Jr.
|
3.4 | 1.9 | 25.6 | 18% |
|
Jerry Jeudy
|
3.4 | 2.0 | 25.1 | 10% |
|
Tylan Wallace
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 3% |
|
Isaiah Bond
|
0.6 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 2% |
|
Malachi Corley
|
0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Harold Fannin Jr.
|
5.4 | 3.7 | 40.2 | 24% |
|
Dalton Schultz
|
4.7 | 3.3 | 34.0 | 20% |
|
Foster Moreau
|
1.0 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 7% |
|
Blake Whiteheart
|
0.7 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 3% |
|
Cade Stover
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 4% |
|
Brevin Jordan
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2% |
|
Marlin Klein
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
HOU
British BrooksRBJawhar JordanRBJoshua PitsenbergerRBNoah WhittingtonRBBryce OliverWRDaniel SobkowiczWRJayden HigginsWRJaylin NoelWRJosh KellyWRLewis BondWR
CLE
Hassan HaskinsRBRaheim SandersRBJimmy Horn Jr.WRXavier GuilloryWRCarsen RyanTEJoe RoyerTEJohn FitzPatrickTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratingsBottom 9% -6.6
- Special teams +0.3
- QB changeTop 3% +1.7
- QB history +0.4
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratingsBottom 7% -2.0
- Scoring output -2.1
- QB history +1.2
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- HOU -2.0
- First line
- HOU -4.5
- Latest
- HOU -4.5
- Model
- 56.8%
- First line
- 64.5%
- Latest
- 63.1%
Moneyline CLE +160 / HOU -192 (vig removed)
- Model
- 41.2
- First line
- 39.5
- Latest
- 39.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 64.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play HOU +6.6
- Home field CLE +2.1
- QB changeTop 3%starter vs the QB behind the ratings CLE +1.7
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats CLE +0.4
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams CLE +0.3
- Roundingpublished scores are rounded to 0.1 CLE +0.1
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses -2.0
- Points scoredrecent points for and against -2.1
- QB history +1.2
Team comparison
|
HOU |
CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 1.114th of 32 | -5.229th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.00813th of 32 | -0.12731st of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.0299th of 32 | -0.01813th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | -0.05727th of 32 | -0.01924th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.2066th of 32 | -0.06925th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| HOU | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | C. Stroud | D. Watson |
| QB ratingranks 25 and 6 of 32 | +0.206 | -0.069 |
Conditions
- VenueHuntington Bank Fieldhome field in the margin
- RoofOutdoorsindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelHOU 7, CLE 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model1,120 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Trevor Lawrence
|
30.1 | 19.7 | 235 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
|
Cam Ward
|
29.5 | 17.5 | 162 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Tony Pollard
|
15.9 | 67.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 12.3 | 31% |
|
Bhayshul Tuten
|
13.0 | 53.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 12.6 | 53% |
|
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
|
7.2 | 31.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 38% |
|
Ameer Abdullah
|
3.3 | 13.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 10% |
|
Michael Carter
|
2.6 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 6% |
|
Tyjae Spears
|
2.3 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 14.5 | 9% |
|
Nicholas Singleton
|
1.5 | 6.0 | – | – | – | 3% |
|
LeQuint Allen Jr.
|
0.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 6% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Parker Washington
|
6.4 | 3.9 | 54.9 | 39% |
|
Carnell Tate
|
7.2 | 4.6 | 52.0 | 20% |
|
Jakobi Meyers
|
5.6 | 3.8 | 46.2 | 24% |
|
Wan'Dale Robinson
|
5.9 | 4.0 | 36.3 | 14% |
|
Elic Ayomanor
|
3.6 | 1.8 | 23.6 | 11% |
|
Brian Thomas Jr.
|
2.0 | 1.2 | 16.3 | 13% |
|
Calvin Ridley
|
2.1 | 1.3 | 15.5 | 8% |
|
Josh Cameron
|
1.7 | 1.1 | 13.5 | 11% |
|
Chimere Dike
|
1.9 | 1.2 | 12.6 | 7% |
|
Travis Hunter
|
1.5 | 0.9 | 11.2 | 9% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Brenton Strange
|
4.1 | 3.1 | 35.4 | 22% |
|
Gunnar Helm
|
3.3 | 2.4 | 21.9 | 10% |
|
Nate Boerkircher
|
2.1 | 1.5 | 17.5 | 14% |
|
Daniel Bellinger
|
2.1 | 1.6 | 14.8 | 6% |
|
Tanner Koziol
|
1.0 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 6% |
|
Kylen Granson
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2% |
|
Quintin Morris
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1% |
|
David Martin-Robinson
|
0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
JAX
J'Mari TaylorRBAlex BullockWRAustin TrammellWRMichael WorthamWRTim JonesWRTrebor PenaWRBrenden BatesTE
TEN
Kalel MullingsRBK.J. OsbornWRTyren MontgomeryWRXavier RestrepoWRJaren KanakTEJoel WilsonTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratingsBottom 1% -13.3
- Special teams -0.9
- QB history -0.1
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings -0.4
- Scoring output -0.4
- QB history 0.0
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- JAX -12.3
- First line
- JAX -9.5
- Latest
- JAX -10.5
- Model
- 79.5%
- First line
- 78.7%
- Latest
- 80.0%
Moneyline TEN +380 / JAX -500 (vig removed)
- Model
- 43.5
- First line
- 45.5
- Latest
- 46.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 78.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play JAX +13.3
- Home field TEN +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats JAX +0.1
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams JAX +0.9
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses -0.4
- Points scoredrecent points for and against -0.4
- QB history +0.0
- Roundingpublished scores are rounded to 0.1 +0.1
Team comparison
|
JAX |
TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 7.32nd of 32 | -7.032nd of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.0705th of 32 | -0.09128th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.0733rd of 32 | 0.06130th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | 0.0965th of 32 | -0.00820th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.2663rd of 32 | -0.11328th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| JAX | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | T. Lawrence | C. Ward |
| QB ratingranks 28 and 3 of 32 | +0.266 | -0.113 |
Conditions
- VenueNissan Stadiumhome field in the margin
- RoofOutdoorsindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelJAX 10, TEN 14not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model500 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Patrick Mahomes
|
32.3 | 21.9 | 245 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
|
Michael Penix Jr.
|
29.6 | 18.2 | 207 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Bijan Robinson
|
19.8 | 90.8 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 30.2 | 50% |
|
Kenneth Walker III
|
18.8 | 81.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 24.0 | 59% |
|
Emmett Johnson
|
2.9 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 14.8 | 16% |
|
Khalil Herbert
|
2.7 | 11.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 10% |
|
Jaydn Ott
|
0.7 | 3.1 | – | – | – | 2% |
|
Ben VanSumeren
|
– | – | 0.1 | – | 0.5 | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Drake London
|
8.0 | 5.0 | 66.1 | 26% |
|
Rashee Rice
|
6.3 | 4.6 | 50.7 | 32% |
|
Xavier Worthy
|
6.1 | 3.8 | 42.1 | 25% |
|
Jahan Dotson
|
4.0 | 2.3 | 31.0 | 17% |
|
Olamide Zaccheaus
|
2.7 | 1.7 | 17.1 | 11% |
|
Jalen Royals
|
1.9 | 1.2 | 13.4 | 10% |
|
Cyrus Allen
|
1.6 | 1.0 | 11.7 | 8% |
|
Andrew Armstrong
|
1.1 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 5% |
|
Chris Blair
|
0.6 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 2% |
|
Beaux Collins
|
0.4 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Travis Kelce
|
6.1 | 4.4 | 49.3 | 31% |
|
Kyle Pitts
|
5.5 | 3.5 | 39.7 | 18% |
|
Noah Gray
|
2.1 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 11% |
|
Charlie Woerner
|
1.3 | 0.9 | 8.5 | 6% |
|
Austin Hooper
|
1.0 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 4% |
|
Jake Briningstool
|
1.0 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 5% |
|
Nick Muse
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1% |
|
Jared Wiley
|
– | – | 0.1 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
KC
Brashard SmithRBNate CarterRBBub MeansWRJacob De JesusWRJeff CaldwellWRJimmy HolidayWRJustin WatsonWROmari EvansWRTyquan ThorntonWRJohn Michael GyllenborgTEThomas OdukoyaTE
ATL
Brian RobinsonRBJam MillerRBTrey SermonRBAntwane Wells Jr.WRDylan DrummondWRVinny Anthony IIWRZachariah BranchWRE.J. JenkinsTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings -5.4
- Special teams -0.9
- QB history -0.4
- League baseline 46.6
- Team ratings -0.3
- Scoring output -1.8
- QB history +0.3
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- KC -4.5
- First line
- KC -3.0
- Latest
- KC -3.5
- Model
- 62.7%
- First line
- 60.9%
- Latest
- 60.9%
Moneyline ATL +145 / KC -175 (vig removed)
- Model
- 44.9
- First line
- 46.5
- Latest
- 45.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 60.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play KC +5.4
- Home field ATL +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats KC +0.4
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams KC +0.9
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof46.6
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses -0.3
- Points scoredrecent points for and against -1.8
- QB history +0.3
Team comparison
|
KC |
ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 3.29th of 32 | -3.123rd of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.05010th of 32 | -0.04523rd of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.02611th of 32 | -0.00216th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | -0.02025th of 32 | -0.11932nd of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.12810th of 32 | -0.04621st of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| KC | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | P. Mahomes | M. Penix Jr. |
| QB ratingranks 21 and 10 of 32 | +0.128 | -0.046 |
Conditions
- VenueMercedes-Benz Stadiumhome field in the margin
- Rest days Not in the modelKC 7, ATL 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model670 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Daniel Jones
|
29.5 | 19.2 | 211 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
|
Malik Willis
|
26.3 | 16.5 | 199 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Ollie Gordon II
|
18.6 | 78.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 47% |
|
Jonathan Taylor
|
14.3 | 68.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 56% |
|
Seth McGowan
|
5.6 | 24.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 19% |
|
Jaylen Wright
|
4.3 | 17.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 10% |
|
DJ Giddens
|
3.3 | 14.3 | – | – | 0.2 | 10% |
|
Kaytron Allen
|
1.5 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 5% |
|
DJ Herman
|
– | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Caleb Douglas
|
6.8 | 4.5 | 57.5 | 26% |
|
Keenan Allen
|
6.3 | 4.2 | 44.9 | 26% |
|
Josh Downs
|
5.2 | 3.4 | 37.4 | 20% |
|
Malik Washington
|
5.2 | 3.6 | 35.7 | 19% |
|
Chris Bell
|
3.1 | 1.8 | 22.3 | 12% |
|
Laquon Treadwell
|
2.2 | 1.4 | 17.1 | 9% |
|
Kevin Coleman Jr.
|
2.3 | 1.2 | 15.5 | 10% |
|
Ashton Dulin
|
1.3 | 0.7 | 10.5 | 9% |
|
Jalen Tolbert
|
1.2 | 0.8 | 9.2 | 6% |
|
Deion Burks
|
1.0 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 5% |
|
Jared Wayne
|
0.6 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 2% |
|
Anthony Gould
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Tyler Warren
|
6.6 | 4.6 | 46.5 | 28% |
|
Greg Dulcich
|
4.7 | 3.2 | 38.0 | 15% |
|
Will Mallory
|
1.6 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 7% |
|
Will Kacmarek
|
1.5 | 1.0 | 10.8 | 6% |
|
Mo Alie-Cox
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 4% |
|
Andrew Ogletree
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 3% |
|
Pharaoh Brown
|
0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1% |
|
Seydou Traore
|
0.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
MIA
Carlos WashingtonRBDe'Von AchaneRBLe'Veon MossRBA.J. HenningWRJalen ReagorWRWill SheppardWRCole TurnerTETre WatsonTE
IND
Davon BoothRBAlec PierceWRD.J. MontgomeryWRMecole HardmanWRNick Westbrook-IkhineWRQuez WatkinsWRCarson TowtTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.9
- Special teamsTop 7% +1.3
- QB history -0.1
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings 0.0
- Scoring output 0.0
- QB history -0.5
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- IND -4.3
- First line
- IND -2.5
- Latest
- IND -2.5
- Model
- 61.5%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Latest
- 54.3%
Moneyline IND -130 / MIA +110 (vig removed)
- Model
- 43.7
- First line
- 43.5
- Latest
- 40.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play IND +0.9
- Home field IND +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats MIA +0.1
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teamsTop 7% IND +1.3
- Roundingpublished scores are rounded to 0.1 IND +0.1
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses +0.0
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +0.0
- QB history -0.5
Team comparison
|
MIA |
IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | -5.630th of 32 | -3.424th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | -0.04322nd of 32 | -0.05325th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | 0.06631st of 32 | 0.03424th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | -0.07429th of 32 | 0.0668th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | -0.06624th of 32 | -0.20130th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| MIA | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | M. Willis | D. Jones |
| QB ratingranks 30 and 24 of 32 | -0.066 | -0.201 |
Conditions
- VenueLucas Oil Stadiumhome field in the margin
- Rest days Not in the modelMIA 7, IND 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model1,010 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Jordan Love
|
29.9 | 20.0 | 208 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
|
Kyler Murray
|
29.7 | 20.1 | 201 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Aaron Jones
|
11.1 | 50.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 13.2 | 32% |
|
Jordan Mason
|
10.5 | 47.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 27% |
|
Kaleb Johnson
|
9.0 | 34.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 25% |
|
MarShawn Lloyd
|
8.6 | 32.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 9.8 | 32% |
|
Pierre Strong
|
4.8 | 19.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 10.6 | 18% |
|
DeeJay Dallas
|
0.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 3% |
|
Max Bredeson
|
– | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Justin Jefferson
|
9.2 | 6.0 | 75.6 | 32% |
|
Matthew Golden
|
9.4 | 5.7 | 70.4 | 38% |
|
Christian Watson
|
7.4 | 4.5 | 67.8 | 45% |
|
Jordan Addison
|
5.4 | 3.3 | 41.7 | 25% |
|
Jauan Jennings
|
2.4 | 1.5 | 17.7 | 11% |
|
Savion Williams
|
2.4 | 1.8 | 17.1 | 17% |
|
Myles Price
|
1.9 | 1.1 | 12.5 | 7% |
|
Tai Felton
|
0.7 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 3% |
|
Bo Melton
|
0.7 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 3% |
|
Odell Beckham Jr.
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2% |
|
J. Michael Sturdivant
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 2% |
|
Coleman Owen
|
– | – | 0.3 | 0% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
T.J. Hockenson
|
6.0 | 4.2 | 42.7 | 20% |
|
Tucker Kraft
|
4.5 | 3.2 | 34.0 | 30% |
|
Gavin Bartholomew
|
0.9 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 4% |
|
Ben Yurosek
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 2% |
|
Jonnu Smith
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 3% |
|
Mark Redman
|
0.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1% |
|
Josh Whyle
|
0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
MIN
C.J. HamRBDemond ClaiborneRBAdam ThielenWRDillon BellWRJeshaun JonesWRMichael BriscoeWRDevin CulpTEJosh OliverTE
GB
Chris BrooksRBJosh JacobsRBIsaiah NeyorWRJayden ReedWRQuincy Skinner Jr.WRSkyy MooreWRDrake DabneyTELuke MusgraveTEThomas YassminTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +5.0
- Special teams -0.5
- QB changeBottom 9% -0.6
- QB history +0.2
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratingsBottom 2% -2.7
- Scoring outputBottom 1% -4.4
- QB history +0.7
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- GB -6.2
- First line
- GB -2.5
- Latest
- GB -4.5
- Model
- 65.4%
- First line
- 57.2%
- Latest
- 61.6%
Moneyline GB -180 / MIN +150 (vig removed)
- Model
- 37.8
- First line
- 41.5
- Latest
- 40.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 57.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play GB +5.0
- Home field GB +2.1
- QB changeBottom 9%starter vs the QB behind the ratings MIN +0.6
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats GB +0.2
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams MIN +0.5
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses -2.7
- Points scoredrecent points for and against -4.4
- QB history +0.7
Team comparison
|
MIN |
GB | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | -0.518th of 32 | 3.97th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | -0.13232nd of 32 | 0.0548th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.1121st of 32 | -0.0357th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | 0.05310th of 32 | -0.00619th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | -0.07727th of 32 | 0.2742nd of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| MIN | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | K. Murray | J. Love |
| QB ratingranks 2 and 27 of 32 | -0.077 | +0.274 |
Conditions
- VenueLambeau Fieldhome field in the margin
- RoofOutdoorsindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelMIN 6, GB 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model260 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Matthew Stafford
|
34.5 | 22.9 | 272 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
|
Carson Beck
|
31.0 | 19.6 | 206 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Tyler Allgeier
|
14.7 | 58.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 20.3 | 35% |
|
Kyren Williams
|
11.9 | 52.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 24.4 | 54% |
|
Blake Corum
|
8.4 | 37.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 11.2 | 33% |
|
Bam Knight
|
5.0 | 19.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 11.3 | 15% |
|
Ronnie Rivers
|
0.7 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 3% |
|
Evan Hull
|
0.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 3% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Tutu Atwell
|
6.7 | 3.9 | 55.0 | 26% |
|
Reggie Virgil
|
7.3 | 4.0 | 48.3 | 24% |
|
Konata Mumpfield
|
5.3 | 2.8 | 37.9 | 25% |
|
Devin Duvernay
|
2.9 | 2.0 | 19.2 | 9% |
|
Simi Fehoko
|
1.5 | 0.8 | 10.0 | 5% |
|
Jordan Whittington
|
1.0 | 0.7 | 7.6 | 4% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Trey McBride
|
9.9 | 7.4 | 66.5 | 29% |
|
Colby Parkinson
|
5.0 | 3.6 | 35.8 | 29% |
|
Tyler Higbee
|
4.5 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 22% |
|
Elijah Higgins
|
2.8 | 2.2 | 19.8 | 10% |
|
Davis Allen
|
2.2 | 1.5 | 15.2 | 14% |
|
Teagan Quitoriano
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 2% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
LA
Dean ConnorsRBJordan WatersRBAlex BachmanWRBrennan PresleyWRDavante AdamsWRPuka NacuaWRDan VillariTETerrance FergusonTE
ARI
James ConnerRBJeremiyah LoveRBJermar JeffersonRBJerome FordRBTrey BensonRBJalen BrooksWRJames ProcheWRKendrick BourneWRMichael WilsonWRShedrick JacksonWRZay JonesWRHunter LongTEKenny YeboahTERivaldo FairweatherTEShawn BowmanTETip ReimanTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratingsBottom 5% -8.1
- Special teams +0.1
- QB changeBottom 7% -1.0
- QB history -0.8
- League baseline 46.6
- Team ratings +0.1
- Scoring output +0.7
- QB history -0.9
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- LA -7.8
- First line
- LA -7.5
- Latest
- LA -9.5
- Model
- 70.7%
- First line
- 74.8%
- Latest
- 72.6%
Moneyline ARI +250 / LA -310 (vig removed)
- Model
- 46.6
- First line
- 47.5
- Latest
- 40.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 74.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play LA +8.1
- Home field ARI +2.1
- QB changeBottom 7%starter vs the QB behind the ratings LA +1.0
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats LA +0.8
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams ARI +0.1
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof46.6
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses +0.1
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +0.7
- QB history -0.9
Team comparison
|
LA |
ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 4.25th of 32 | -3.926th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.0539th of 32 | -0.02420th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.0615th of 32 | 0.04228th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | -0.10331st of 32 | -0.09130th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.05415th of 32 | -0.23132nd of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| LA | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | M. Stafford | C. Beck |
| QB ratingranks 32 and 15 of 32 | +0.054 | -0.231 |
Conditions
- VenueState Farm Stadiumhome field in the margin
- Rest days Not in the modelLA 7, ARI 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model350 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Drew Lock
|
30.2 | 19.4 | 218 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
|
Kirk Cousins
|
31.1 | 20.1 | 209 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Mike Washington Jr.
|
10.3 | 40.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 20% |
|
Ashton Jeanty
|
9.6 | 34.2 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 29.9 | 29% |
|
Emanuel Wilson
|
7.5 | 31.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 27% |
|
Jadarian Price
|
7.5 | 31.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 17.3 | 28% |
|
Zach Charbonnet
|
7.0 | 29.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 12.2 | 35% |
|
George Holani
|
1.7 | 6.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 10% |
|
Dylan Laube
|
0.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2% |
|
Connor Heyward
|
0.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1% |
|
Brady Russell
|
– | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
|
9.5 | 6.7 | 92.5 | 48% |
|
Tre Tucker
|
5.4 | 3.2 | 40.4 | 20% |
|
Rashid Shaheed
|
3.6 | 2.2 | 28.0 | 19% |
|
Cooper Kupp
|
3.2 | 2.3 | 26.0 | 21% |
|
Jalen Nailor
|
3.5 | 2.1 | 24.0 | 15% |
|
Tory Horton
|
2.6 | 1.5 | 19.1 | 17% |
|
Cody White
|
2.1 | 1.3 | 15.1 | 9% |
|
Jack Bech
|
1.4 | 0.9 | 10.0 | 5% |
|
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
|
1.1 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 4% |
|
Malik Benson
|
1.1 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 4% |
|
Dareke Young
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0% |
|
Irvin Charles
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Brock Bowers
|
8.1 | 5.8 | 62.5 | 30% |
|
Michael Mayer
|
4.2 | 3.0 | 29.4 | 12% |
|
AJ Barner
|
3.9 | 2.8 | 28.1 | 27% |
|
Eric Saubert
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 4% |
|
Ian Thomas
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
SEA
Jacardia WrightRBRobbie OuztsRBVelus Jones Jr.RBEmmanuel Henderson Jr.WRJake BoboWRMontorie Foster JrWRRicky White IIIWRBen SimsTEElijah ArroyoTE
LV
Chris CollierRBOwen WrightRBRoman HembyRBDeven ThompkinsWRCarter RunyonTEPatrick GurdTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratingsBottom 4% -9.4
- Special teamsBottom 3% -1.7
- QB history -0.2
- League baseline 46.6
- Team ratingsBottom 8% -1.8
- Scoring output 0.0
- QB history +1.2
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- SEA -9.2
- First line
- SEA -6.0
- Latest
- SEA -3.5
- Model
- 74.3%
- First line
- 70.5%
- Latest
- 62.2%
Moneyline LV +154 / SEA -185 (vig removed)
- Model
- 46.0
- First line
- 44.5
- Latest
- 43.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 70.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play SEA +9.4
- Home field LV +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats SEA +0.2
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teamsBottom 3% SEA +1.7
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof46.6
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses -1.8
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +0.0
- QB history +1.2
Team comparison
|
SEA |
LV | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 5.14th of 32 | -6.031st of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | -0.01218th of 32 | -0.09429th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.0872nd of 32 | 0.03926th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | 0.1961st of 32 | 0.00816th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.08913th of 32 | 0.07214th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| SEA | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | D. Lock | K. Cousins |
| QB ratingranks 14 and 13 of 32 | +0.089 | +0.072 |
Conditions
- VenueAllegiant Stadiumhome field in the margin
- RoofDomeindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelSEA 7, LV 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model870 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Brock Purdy
|
29.5 | 20.0 | 264 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
|
Dak Prescott
|
32.4 | 21.4 | 236 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Javonte Williams
|
20.0 | 80.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 14.9 | 48% |
|
Christian McCaffrey
|
12.1 | 56.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 30.3 | 51% |
|
Kaelon Black
|
9.0 | 39.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 24% |
|
Jordan James
|
1.1 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 4% |
|
Hunter Luepke
|
0.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2% |
|
Kyle Juszczyk
|
0.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 6% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | Rushing | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
CeeDee Lamb
|
12.7 | 8.6 | 106 | 44% | 0.1 | 0.3 |
|
George Pickens
|
6.4 | 4.0 | 57 | 24% | – | – |
|
Mike Evans
|
5.7 | 3.4 | 51 | 36% | – | – |
|
Ryan Flournoy
|
4.2 | 2.9 | 33 | 17% | 0.1 | 0.4 |
|
Deebo Samuel Sr.
|
3.4 | 2.3 | 28 | 25% | 1.6 | 8.2 |
|
Demarcus Robinson
|
2.8 | 1.8 | 23 | 16% | – | 0.1 |
|
Jordan Watkins
|
2.4 | 1.6 | 22 | 11% | – | – |
|
Brandin Cooks
|
1.8 | 1.2 | 14 | 9% | – | – |
|
Jacob Cowing
|
1.4 | 0.8 | 10 | 7% | 0.3 | 1.2 |
|
Jonathan Mingo
|
1.4 | 0.7 | 9 | 4% | – | – |
|
KaVontae Turpin
|
1.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 5% | 0.2 | 0.8 |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
George Kittle
|
6.3 | 4.7 | 60.6 | 34% |
|
Brevyn Spann-Ford
|
3.7 | 2.5 | 26.0 | 14% |
|
Luke Farrell
|
0.6 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 3% |
|
Luke Schoonmaker
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
SF
Isaac GuerendoRBSincere McCormickRBBrandon AiyukWRChristian KirkWRDe'Zhaun StriblingWRKhaDarel HodgeWRRicky PearsallWRWesley GrimesWRWill PaulingWRXavier SmithWRJack StollTEJake TongesTEKhalil DinkinsTE
DAL
Israel AbanikandaRBJashaun CorbinRBMalik DavisRBTyler GoodsonRBAnthony SmithWRJordan HudsonWRParris CampbellWRJake FergusonTEJames MitchellTEMichael TriggTEPrinceton FantTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings -6.2
- Special teams +1.1
- QB history 0.0
- League baseline 46.6
- Team ratingsTop 1% +2.6
- Scoring outputTop 3% +3.8
- QB history +0.5
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- SF -3.0
- First line
- SF -3.5
- Latest
- SF -4.5
- Model
- 58.5%
- First line
- 63.7%
- Latest
- 65.7%
Moneyline DAL +180 / SF -218 (vig removed)
- Model
- 53.6
- First line
- 53.5
- Latest
- 55.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 63.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play SF +6.2
- Home field DAL +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats 0.0
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teamsTop 10% DAL +1.1
- Roundingpublished scores are rounded to 0.1 SF +0.1
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof46.6
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses +2.6
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +3.8
- QB history +0.5
Team comparison
|
SF |
DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 5.43rd of 32 | 0.316th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.1082nd of 32 | 0.0557th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.01514th of 32 | 0.06932nd of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | -0.01423rd of 32 | 0.1064th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | 0.2364th of 32 | 0.1489th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| SF | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | B. Purdy | D. Prescott |
| QB ratingranks 9 and 4 of 32 | +0.236 | +0.148 |
Conditions
- VenueAT&T Stadiumhome field in the margin
- Rest days Not in the modelSF 7, DAL 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model1,440 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Joe Burrow
|
35.3 | 24.4 | 260 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
32.0 | 20.8 | 234 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Jaylen Warren
|
12.1 | 59.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 28.1 | 29% |
|
Chase Brown
|
10.8 | 42.9 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 27.9 | 40% |
|
Rico Dowdle
|
7.3 | 33.2 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 18.0 | 21% |
|
Samaje Perine
|
6.3 | 24.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 18% |
|
Tahj Brooks
|
0.5 | 1.9 | – | – | 0.1 | 2% |
|
Travis Homer
|
0.3 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 1% |
|
Lew Nichols III
|
0.1 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 0% |
|
Riley Nowakowski
|
– | – | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Ja'Marr Chase
|
11.3 | 7.7 | 94.9 | 56% |
|
Tee Higgins
|
7.8 | 5.0 | 70.5 | 44% |
|
DK Metcalf
|
8.5 | 5.1 | 67.9 | 36% |
|
Germie Bernard
|
6.7 | 4.7 | 49.6 | 24% |
|
Dohnte Meyers
|
3.1 | 2.0 | 23.7 | 14% |
|
Mitchell Tinsley
|
1.3 | 0.7 | 9.1 | 7% |
|
Ben Skowronek
|
0.7 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 2% |
|
Brandon Smith
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 2% |
|
Colbie Young
|
0.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Darnell Washington
|
4.5 | 3.2 | 36.6 | 17% |
|
Pat Freiermuth
|
4.2 | 3.0 | 32.6 | 21% |
|
Mike Gesicki
|
3.4 | 2.3 | 26.5 | 18% |
|
Drew Sample
|
0.9 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 4% |
|
Jack Endries
|
0.7 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 4% |
|
Cam Grandy
|
0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1% |
|
Robert Tonyan
|
0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
PIT
Brandon JohnsonWRCole BurgessWRIsaiah HodginsWRMarquez Valdes-ScantlingWRMax HurlemanWRMichael PittmanWRRoman WilsonWRLake McReeTE
CIN
Kendall MiltonRBKentrel BullockRBAndrei IosivasWRJordan MooreWRKe'Shawn WilliamsWRNoah ThomasWRCaden PrieskornTEErick AllTEJosh KattusTETanner HudsonTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.9
- Special teams +0.4
- QB history +0.6
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratingsTop 10% +1.3
- Scoring output +1.3
- QB history +0.8
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- CIN -3.9
- First line
- CIN -3.5
- Latest
- CIN -3.5
- Model
- 61.5%
- First line
- 61.6%
- Latest
- 60.9%
Moneyline CIN -175 / PIT +145 (vig removed)
- Model
- 47.5
- First line
- 47.5
- Latest
- 48.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 61.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play CIN +0.9
- Home field CIN +2.1
- QB historythis week's QBs vs those behind recent stats CIN +0.6
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams CIN +0.4
- Roundingpublished scores are rounded to 0.1 PIT +0.1
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses +1.3
- Points scoredrecent points for and against +1.3
- QB history +0.8
Team comparison
|
PIT |
CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | 0.715th of 32 | 2.011th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | 0.00414th of 32 | 0.0763rd of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.01315th of 32 | 0.04027th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | 0.00017th of 32 | 0.04112th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | -0.06123rd of 32 | 0.3171st of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| PIT | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | A. Rodgers | J. Burrow |
| QB ratingranks 1 and 23 of 32 | -0.061 | +0.317 |
Conditions
- VenuePaycor Stadiumhome field in the margin
- RoofOutdoorsindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelPIT 14, CIN 7not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model260 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
How we got this
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Justin Herbert
|
27.4 | 18.2 | 202 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
|
Jacoby Brissett
|
29.4 | 19.1 | 187 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Derrick Henry
|
16.9 | 78.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 60% |
|
Omarion Hampton
|
11.4 | 44.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 8.7 | 29% |
|
Kimani Vidal
|
6.6 | 26.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 12.5 | 18% |
|
Keaton Mitchell
|
5.3 | 24.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 16.4 | 17% |
|
Justice Hill
|
4.2 | 18.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 25.0 | 27% |
|
Rasheen Ali
|
1.3 | 5.2 | 0.1 | – | 0.3 | 4% |
|
Scott Matlock
|
– | – | – | – | 0.2 | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Zay Flowers
|
8.5 | 5.8 | 71.4 | 37% |
|
Tre Harris
|
4.6 | 3.0 | 34.5 | 14% |
|
Ladd McConkey
|
3.4 | 2.3 | 28.7 | 14% |
|
Quentin Johnston
|
3.4 | 2.0 | 27.4 | 17% |
|
Rashod Bateman
|
3.2 | 2.0 | 24.4 | 17% |
|
Theo Wease Jr.
|
2.1 | 1.3 | 17.0 | 8% |
|
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
|
2.3 | 1.3 | 16.5 | 9% |
|
Ja'Kobi Lane
|
2.1 | 1.3 | 14.5 | 10% |
|
Elijah Sarratt
|
1.9 | 1.2 | 13.4 | 10% |
|
Brenen Thompson
|
0.9 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 4% |
|
LaJohntay Wester
|
0.7 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 4% |
|
Derius Davis
|
0.7 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 3% |
|
Devontez Walker
|
0.6 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 4% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Mark Andrews
|
4.0 | 2.8 | 27.8 | 29% |
|
Oronde Gadsden II
|
3.3 | 2.3 | 25.7 | 12% |
|
Charlie Kolar
|
3.0 | 2.1 | 23.1 | 13% |
|
Matthew Hibner
|
1.6 | 1.2 | 11.8 | 9% |
|
Josh Cuevas
|
1.5 | 1.0 | 10.7 | 8% |
|
Hayden Rucci
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
LAC
Alec IngoldRBAmar JohnsonRBGary JenningsWRLuke GrimmWRTejhaun PalmerWRDavid NjokuTEEvan SvobodaTEPatrick HerbertTE
BAL
Adam RandallRBChris MooreWRGage LarvadainWRTy PezzaWRDurham SmytheTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +3.5
- Special teams +0.3
- QB changeTop 1% +2.5
- QB historyBottom 8% -1.7
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings -1.5
- Scoring output -0.7
- QB history -1.9
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- BAL -6.7
- First line
- LAC -1.5
- Latest
- BAL -5.5
- Model
- 67.2%
- First line
- 47.4%
- Latest
- 64.5%
Moneyline BAL -205 / LAC +170 (vig removed)
- Model
- 40.1
- First line
- 37.5
- Latest
- 38.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 5 captures, first 47.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 9:49 AM ET
- Latest
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Mon 9:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- Rating gapoffense and defense EPA per play BAL +3.5
- Home field BAL +2.1
- QB changeTop 1%starter vs the QB behind the ratings BAL +2.5
- QB historyBottom 8%this week's QBs vs those behind recent stats LAC +1.7
- Injury baselinefixed term of the injury fit 0.0
- Special teams BAL +0.3
- League baselineleague scoring level and roof44.1
- Team EPAboth offenses vs both defenses -1.5
- Points scoredrecent points for and against -0.7
- QB history -1.9
Team comparison
|
LAC |
BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Powerpts vs avg | -4.227th of 32 | -0.517th of 32 |
| OffenseEPA/play | -0.10730th of 32 | 0.00315th of 32 |
| DefenseEPA/play allowed | -0.02710th of 32 | 0.00719th of 32 |
| Special teamsEPA/play | -0.06028th of 32 | -0.02726th of 32 |
| Starting QBQB rating | -0.22831st of 32 | -0.14329th of 32 |
Quarterbacks
| LAC | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | J. Herbert | J. Brissett |
| QB ratingranks 29 and 31 of 32 | -0.228 | -0.143 |
Conditions
- VenueM&T Bank Stadiumhome field in the margin
- RoofOutdoorsindoor games in the total
- Rest days Not in the modelLAC 8, BAL 11not in the game margin
- Away travel Not in the model2,320 minot in the game margin
Model nfl-1ed191b49d32 · data as of · Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse schedules, ESPN injuries, NFL injury reports, Team depth charts. How the models work →
Players
Anytime TD board
- Jahmyr Gibbs69%
- James Cook68%
- Derrick Henry60%
- Kenneth Walker III59%
- Ja'Marr Chase56%
Quarterbacks
| LA @ ARI | 34.5 | 22.9 | 272 | 1.99 | 0.67 | |
| PIT @ CIN | 35.3 | 24.4 | 260 | 2.22 | 0.65 | |
| SF @ DAL | 29.5 | 20.0 | 264 | 1.87 | 0.75 | |
| KC @ ATL | 32.3 | 21.9 | 245 | 1.80 | 0.62 | |
| NE @ DET | 30.6 | 21.2 | 247 | 1.68 | 0.55 | |
| HOU @ CLE | 32.8 | 21.1 | 242 | 1.53 | 0.54 | |
| NE @ DET | 29.4 | 19.7 | 242 | 1.65 | 0.77 | |
| SF @ DAL | 32.4 | 21.4 | 236 | 1.60 | 0.64 | |
| PIT @ CIN | 32.0 | 20.8 | 234 | 1.64 | 0.53 | |
| JAX @ TEN | 30.1 | 19.7 | 235 | 1.60 | 0.63 | |
| CAR @ NO | 32.1 | 21.0 | 227 | 1.28 | 0.64 | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 27.9 | 18.8 | 229 | 1.68 | 0.62 | |
| CAR @ NO | 33.2 | 20.7 | 220 | 1.38 | 0.73 | |
| WAS @ NYG | 30.6 | 19.8 | 218 | 1.36 | 0.49 | |
| SEA @ LV | 30.2 | 19.4 | 218 | 1.38 | 0.69 | |
| WAS @ NYG | 28.7 | 18.0 | 216 | 1.18 | 0.90 | |
| SEA @ LV | 31.1 | 20.1 | 209 | 1.43 | 0.72 | |
| MIA @ IND | 29.5 | 19.2 | 211 | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| MIN @ GB | 29.9 | 20.0 | 208 | 1.77 | 0.59 | |
| LA @ ARI | 31.0 | 19.6 | 206 | 1.28 | 0.74 | |
| HOU @ CLE | 29.2 | 19.2 | 207 | 1.21 | 0.56 | |
| KC @ ATL | 29.6 | 18.2 | 207 | 1.14 | 0.66 | |
| MIN @ GB | 29.7 | 20.1 | 201 | 1.14 | 0.64 | |
| LAC @ BAL | 27.4 | 18.2 | 202 | 1.17 | 0.61 | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 28.7 | 19.1 | 199 | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| MIA @ IND | 26.3 | 16.5 | 199 | 0.95 | 0.63 | |
| LAC @ BAL | 29.4 | 19.1 | 187 | 1.18 | 0.52 | |
| JAX @ TEN | 29.5 | 17.5 | 162 | 0.75 | 0.54 |
Running backs
| KC @ ATL | 19.8 | 91 | 4.8 | 3.60 | 30.2 | 49.6% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 22.2 | 107 | 1.7 | 1.30 | 11.4 | 68.0% | |
| NE @ DET | 18.4 | 88 | 4.3 | 3.40 | 26.7 | 68.7% | |
| KC @ ATL | 18.8 | 81 | 4.1 | 3.30 | 24.0 | 58.7% | |
| SF @ DAL | 20.0 | 81 | 3.1 | 2.40 | 14.9 | 48.2% | |
| MIA @ IND | 14.3 | 68 | 3.9 | 3.00 | 24.5 | 55.5% | |
| CAR @ NO | 14.5 | 62 | 4.6 | 3.70 | 25.4 | 41.5% | |
| MIA @ IND | 18.6 | 78 | 1.6 | 1.20 | 8.6 | 47.1% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 12.1 | 59 | 4.2 | 3.40 | 28.1 | 28.7% | |
| SF @ DAL | 12.1 | 56 | 4.5 | 3.60 | 30.3 | 50.8% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 16.9 | 79 | 1.2 | 0.90 | 7.0 | 60.5% | |
| LA @ ARI | 14.7 | 58 | 3.7 | 3.10 | 20.3 | 34.6% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 15.9 | 67 | 2.5 | 1.90 | 12.3 | 31.3% | |
| LA @ ARI | 11.9 | 53 | 4.3 | 3.20 | 24.4 | 54.2% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 10.8 | 43 | 5.2 | 4.30 | 27.9 | 40.0% | |
| WAS @ NYG | 12.6 | 54 | 3.1 | 2.70 | 18.3 | 32.1% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 15.2 | 56 | 2.1 | 1.70 | 12.0 | 38.3% | |
| SEA @ LV | 9.6 | 34 | 5.4 | 4.10 | 29.9 | 28.7% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 13.0 | 53 | 1.8 | 1.40 | 12.6 | 53.3% | |
| MIN @ GB | 11.1 | 51 | 2.4 | 1.80 | 13.2 | 32.1% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 10.9 | 43 | 2.7 | 1.90 | 15.0 | 28.2% | |
| CAR @ NO | 8.0 | 35 | 4.0 | 3.20 | 23.4 | 34.8% | |
| WAS @ NYG | 11.2 | 49 | 1.6 | 1.20 | 9.8 | 36.1% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 9.7 | 41 | 2.7 | 2.00 | 17.1 | 22.9% | |
| WAS @ NYG | 9.3 | 42 | 2.6 | 2.00 | 15.2 | 27.8% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 9.9 | 41 | 2.6 | 2.00 | 14.2 | 24.7% | |
| MIN @ GB | 10.5 | 48 | 1.4 | 1.10 | 7.3 | 27.2% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 11.4 | 45 | 1.5 | 1.30 | 8.7 | 28.8% | |
| WAS @ NYG | 9.4 | 43 | 1.7 | 1.40 | 10.9 | 33.4% | |
| CAR @ NO | 11.1 | 47 | 1.0 | 0.90 | 6.5 | 32.8% | |
| NE @ DET | 9.6 | 42 | 1.8 | 1.40 | 10.4 | 32.6% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 7.3 | 33 | 3.1 | 2.40 | 18.0 | 21.2% | |
| NE @ DET | 11.5 | 49 | 0.2 | 0.10 | 1.1 | 26.3% | |
| SEA @ LV | 7.5 | 32 | 2.9 | 2.10 | 17.3 | 28.5% | |
| LA @ ARI | 8.4 | 38 | 1.9 | 1.40 | 11.2 | 33.2% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 4.2 | 19 | 4.6 | 3.60 | 25.0 | 26.7% | |
| MIN @ GB | 8.6 | 32 | 1.9 | 1.50 | 9.8 | 31.7% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 4.2 | 16 | 4.2 | 3.20 | 25.7 | 19.1% | |
| SF @ DAL | 9.0 | 40 | 0.6 | 0.50 | 3.6 | 24.3% | |
| SEA @ LV | 10.3 | 40 | 0.3 | 0.20 | 1.7 | 20.3% | |
| SEA @ LV | 7.0 | 29 | 2.1 | 1.70 | 12.2 | 34.6% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 5.3 | 24 | 2.9 | 2.30 | 16.4 | 16.9% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 6.6 | 26 | 2.2 | 1.60 | 12.5 | 18.1% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 7.2 | 31 | 1.3 | 1.00 | 7.9 | 38.1% | |
| SEA @ LV | 7.5 | 32 | 1.0 | 0.80 | 6.0 | 26.9% | |
| MIN @ GB | 9.0 | 35 | 0.2 | 0.10 | 0.9 | 24.7% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 6.6 | 28 | 0.9 | 0.70 | 5.6 | 25.3% | |
| LA @ ARI | 5.0 | 19 | 2.1 | 1.60 | 11.3 | 15.4% | |
| MIN @ GB | 4.8 | 20 | 2.0 | 1.50 | 10.6 | 18.2% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 6.3 | 24 | 0.8 | 0.70 | 5.0 | 17.5% | |
| MIA @ IND | 5.6 | 24 | 0.7 | 0.50 | 3.8 | 18.6% | |
| KC @ ATL | 2.9 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.60 | 14.8 | 16.0% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 1.7 | 7 | 2.4 | 1.70 | 17.5 | 14.8% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 2.3 | 9 | 2.7 | 2.20 | 14.5 | 9.3% | |
| MIA @ IND | 4.3 | 18 | 0.7 | 0.50 | 3.8 | 10.0% | |
| NE @ DET | 3.3 | 14 | 1.2 | 1.00 | 7.5 | 12.0% | |
| KC @ ATL | 2.7 | 12 | 1.7 | 1.30 | 9.1 | 9.9% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 3.0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0.70 | 5.3 | 10.6% | |
| CAR @ NO | 3.1 | 14 | 0.7 | 0.50 | 4.0 | 10.6% | |
| CAR @ NO | 3.0 | 12 | 0.6 | 0.40 | 3.3 | 8.8% | |
| NE @ DET | 1.2 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.30 | 9.8 | 8.0% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 2.6 | 10 | 0.8 | 0.60 | 4.4 | 5.7% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 3.3 | 13 | 0.2 | 0.10 | 1.1 | 10.2% | |
| MIA @ IND | 3.3 | 14 | – | – | 0.2 | 9.5% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 2.3 | 10 | 0.6 | 0.50 | 4.3 | 9.9% | |
| SEA @ LV | 1.7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0.80 | 5.9 | 9.5% | |
| WAS @ NYG | 2.8 | 12 | – | – | – | 8.7% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 1.6 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.70 | 4.8 | 6.4% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 1.4 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.50 | 4.2 | 4.6% | |
| CAR @ NO | 1.8 | 8 | 0.4 | 0.30 | 2.2 | 5.7% | |
| MIA @ IND | 1.5 | 7 | 0.4 | 0.30 | 2.6 | 5.0% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 0.2 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.00 | 7.6 | 5.7% | |
| SF @ DAL | 0.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90 | 7.7 | 6.0% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 1.5 | 6 | – | – | – | 3.4% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 1.3 | 5 | 0.1 | – | 0.3 | 4.2% | |
| SF @ DAL | 1.1 | 5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | 0.8 | 3.8% | |
| LA @ ARI | 0.6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.40 | 2.6 | 2.7% | |
| MIN @ GB | 0.4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.50 | 3.3 | 2.6% | |
| LA @ ARI | 0.7 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | 1.4 | 2.7% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.5 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.20 | 1.4 | 2.0% | |
| SF @ DAL | 0.4 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.20 | 1.7 | 2.0% | |
| KC @ ATL | 0.7 | 3 | – | – | – | 2.5% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.5 | 0.40 | 2.8 | 1.3% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 0.1 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.30 | 2.5 | 1.3% | |
| CAR @ NO | 0.5 | 2 | – | – | – | 1.7% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | 0.8 | 1.4% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 0.5 | 2 | – | – | 0.1 | 1.6% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.10 | 1.0 | 0.8% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.2 | 0.20 | 1.2 | 1.0% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 0.3 | 1 | – | – | 0.2 | 0.6% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 0.3 | 1 | – | – | – | 0.6% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.2 | 0.10 | 1.1 | 0.5% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 0.1 | 0.10 | 0.8 | 0.4% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 0.1 | 1 | – | – | – | 0.4% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 0.1 | 0 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.4% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.5 | 0.4% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0.2% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% |
Receivers
| SF @ DAL | 0.10 | 0.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 106 | 44.5% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 11.3 | 7.7 | 95 | 56.2% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.20 | 0.8 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 92 | 47.8% | |
| NE @ DET | 0.20 | 0.9 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 88 | 48.6% | |
| MIN @ GB | 0.10 | 0.3 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 76 | 32.4% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 0.80 | 3.4 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 71 | 37.3% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 9.0 | 5.7 | 74 | 31.5% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | 0.2 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 70 | 37.7% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 7.8 | 5.0 | 70 | 43.9% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 8.7 | 5.5 | 68 | 32.4% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 0.10 | 0.5 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 68 | 36.5% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 7.4 | 4.5 | 68 | 44.9% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | 0.1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 66 | 26.5% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 7.9 | 4.8 | 65 | 31.3% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 6.8 | 4.5 | 58 | 25.9% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 6.4 | 4.0 | 57 | 24.2% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 7.1 | 4.1 | 56 | 27.4% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 0.30 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 55 | 38.9% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 6.7 | 3.9 | 55 | 26.1% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 7.2 | 4.4 | 52 | 20.2% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 7.2 | 4.6 | 52 | 20.1% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 6.6 | 4.6 | 52 | 29.1% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | 0.1 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 51 | 32.5% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 0.10 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 50 | 23.5% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 5.9 | 3.8 | 51 | 29.6% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 5.7 | 3.4 | 51 | 35.6% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 7.3 | 4.0 | 48 | 23.5% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 0.90 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 45 | 23.1% | |
| NE @ DET | 0.20 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 50 | 28.9% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 0.10 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 50 | 26.8% | |
| CAR @ NO | 0.30 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 47 | 25.3% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | 0.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 46 | 24.5% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 6.3 | 4.2 | 45 | 25.8% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 5.9 | 3.8 | 44 | 21.7% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | 0.1 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 42 | 24.8% | |
| MIN @ GB | 0.20 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 42 | 25.1% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 5.1 | 3.4 | 42 | 18.5% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.20 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 40 | 19.8% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 0.70 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 38 | 24.2% | |
| MIA @ IND | 0.80 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 36 | 19.0% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 5.1 | 2.9 | 40 | 17.7% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 5.7 | 2.7 | 39 | 14.9% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 4.6 | 3.4 | 39 | 21.8% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 4.5 | 3.2 | 39 | 16.5% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 0.10 | 0.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 36 | 14.2% | |
| MIA @ IND | 0.10 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 37 | 20.5% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 5.3 | 2.8 | 38 | 25.4% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 4.9 | 3.3 | 38 | 21.9% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 0.30 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 36 | 21.3% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 4.8 | 3.1 | 36 | 19.9% | |
| SF @ DAL | 1.60 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 28 | 24.6% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 4.4 | 2.8 | 36 | 18.4% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 4.5 | 2.6 | 35 | 19.0% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | 0.1 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 34 | 14.1% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 4.2 | 2.5 | 34 | 25.3% | |
| SF @ DAL | 0.10 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 33 | 17.4% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 0.20 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 31 | 19.7% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 3.6 | 2.3 | 32 | 19.3% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 4.0 | 2.3 | 31 | 16.9% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.30 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 28 | 19.3% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 0.40 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 27 | 16.7% | |
| NE @ DET | 0.10 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 28 | 16.2% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 3.4 | 2.3 | 29 | 13.8% | |
| WAS @ NYG | 0.50 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 24 | 13.2% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 3.2 | 2.3 | 26 | 20.7% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 3.4 | 1.9 | 26 | 18.0% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 3.4 | 2.0 | 25 | 10.0% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 0.30 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 24 | 14.2% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 3.2 | 2.0 | 24 | 17.4% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 3.5 | 2.1 | 24 | 15.3% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 3.6 | 1.8 | 24 | 11.4% | |
| MIA @ IND | 0.20 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 22 | 11.9% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 3.2 | 1.8 | 23 | 13.0% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | 0.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 23 | 16.2% | |
| MIN @ GB | 1.20 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 17 | 16.7% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 2.4 | 1.6 | 22 | 11.3% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 3.0 | 1.9 | 21 | 11.0% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 2.9 | 2.0 | 19 | 9.4% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 2.6 | 1.5 | 19 | 17.3% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 2.4 | 1.5 | 18 | 11.1% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 2.7 | 1.7 | 17 | 10.7% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 2.3 | 1.4 | 17 | 12.5% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 2.2 | 1.4 | 17 | 8.6% | |
| MIA @ IND | 0.30 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 16 | 10.5% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 2.1 | 1.3 | 17 | 8.3% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 2.3 | 1.3 | 16 | 8.7% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 2.1 | 1.2 | 16 | 11.8% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 2.0 | 1.2 | 16 | 12.9% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 2.1 | 1.3 | 16 | 8.3% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 2.1 | 1.3 | 15 | 8.9% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 2.2 | 1.2 | 15 | 9.8% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 2.1 | 1.3 | 14 | 10.4% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 1.8 | 1.2 | 14 | 9.4% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 1.9 | 1.2 | 13 | 9.8% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 1.9 | 1.2 | 13 | 9.7% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 1.7 | 1.1 | 14 | 11.0% | |
| MIN @ GB | 0.10 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 12 | 7.0% | |
| MIA @ IND | 0.60 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 10 | 8.8% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 13 | 6.7% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 1.5 | 0.8 | 12 | 7.7% | |
| JAX @ TEN | 0.20 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 11 | 9.2% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 1.6 | 1.0 | 12 | 7.6% | |
| SF @ DAL | 0.30 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 10 | 7.0% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 1.5 | 0.8 | 10 | 5.4% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 1.4 | 0.9 | 10 | 4.9% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 1.3 | 0.8 | 10 | 5.2% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 1.2 | 0.8 | 9 | 5.8% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 6.6% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 1.4 | 0.7 | 9 | 3.9% | |
| SF @ DAL | 0.20 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 5.3% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 4.5% | |
| CAR @ NO | 0.20 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 4.8% | |
| MIA @ IND | 0.10 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 5.3% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | 0.30 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 7 | 4.0% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5.3% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 4.4% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 1.1 | 0.6 | 7 | 3.7% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.10 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 7 | 4.0% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 0.9 | 0.6 | 7 | 3.6% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.9 | 0.5 | 6 | 3.2% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 0.20 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5 | 3.3% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5 | 3.8% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.7 | 0.4 | 5 | 2.5% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.7 | 0.4 | 5 | 2.7% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 5 | 3.0% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 5 | 2.8% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 5 | 2.3% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.7 | 0.4 | 4 | 3.4% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 0.6 | 0.3 | 4 | 2.4% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 0.6 | 0.3 | 4 | 3.9% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 0.6 | 0.3 | 4 | 2.3% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4 | 2.2% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3 | 2.0% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | 2.6% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 2.1% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | 1.7% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 1.7% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | 1.6% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.4% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.4% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.5% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.7% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.5% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.3% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0 | 0.3% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | – | – | 0 | 0.2% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% |
Tight ends
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 9.9 | 7.4 | 66.5 | 29.0% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.40 | 1.80 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 62.5 | 29.9% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 6.3 | 4.7 | 60.6 | 34.2% | |
| KC @ ATL | 0.20 | 0.90 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 49.3 | 31.1% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 6.5 | 4.5 | 48.7 | 35.2% | |
| MIA @ IND | 0.30 | 1.20 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 46.5 | 27.6% | |
| NE @ DET | 0.10 | 0.50 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 44.8 | 30.4% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 6.0 | 4.2 | 42.7 | 20.5% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | 0.10 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 40.2 | 23.6% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 5.5 | 3.5 | 39.7 | 18.4% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 5.2 | 3.7 | 38.4 | 16.1% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 4.8 | 3.3 | 38.2 | 21.2% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 4.7 | 3.2 | 38.0 | 15.0% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 5.0 | 3.6 | 35.8 | 28.6% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 4.5 | 3.2 | 36.6 | 17.3% | |
| MIN @ GB | 0.40 | 1.80 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 34.0 | 29.7% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 4.1 | 3.1 | 35.4 | 22.2% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 4.7 | 3.3 | 34.0 | 19.6% | |
| PIT @ CIN | 0.40 | 1.60 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 32.6 | 20.9% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 3.9 | 2.8 | 34.6 | 19.5% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 4.5 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 22.1% | |
| SEA @ LV | 0.70 | 3.00 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 28.1 | 27.1% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 3.8 | 2.7 | 31.4 | 20.7% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 3.9 | 2.6 | 30.5 | 16.6% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 0.40 | 1.70 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 27.8 | 29.0% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 4.2 | 3.0 | 29.4 | 11.9% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 3.7 | 2.5 | 26.1 | 18.7% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 3.4 | 2.3 | 26.5 | 17.5% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 3.7 | 2.5 | 26.0 | 13.5% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 0.10 | 0.30 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 25.7 | 12.0% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 3.2 | 2.2 | 25.2 | 17.4% | |
| LAC @ BAL | 0.30 | 1.20 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 23.1 | 12.8% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 3.4 | 2.3 | 22.5 | 11.1% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 3.3 | 2.4 | 21.9 | 9.7% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | 0.10 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 21.1 | 9.9% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 2.8 | 2.2 | 19.8 | 9.7% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | 0.20 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 20.0 | 18.9% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 2.1 | 1.5 | 17.5 | 13.5% | |
| LA @ ARI | 0.10 | 0.50 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 15.2 | 13.5% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 2.1 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 10.7% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 2.1 | 1.6 | 14.8 | 6.3% | |
| CAR @ NO | 0.10 | 0.30 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 13.9 | 8.0% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 1.6 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 7.2% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 1.6 | 1.2 | 11.8 | 8.9% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 1.6 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 6.8% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 1.5 | 1.0 | 10.8 | 6.0% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 1.5 | 1.0 | 10.7 | 7.8% | |
| KC @ ATL | 0.30 | 1.40 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8.5 | 5.7% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 1.2 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 6.1% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 6.2% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 7.2% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 5.0% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 4.3% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 3.5% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 4.2% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 3.1% | |
| HOU @ CLE | 0.40 | 1.90 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 4.1% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 3.1% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 4.4% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 3.3% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 3.5% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 4.4% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 2.9% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 2.4% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 2.7% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 3.5% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 1.5% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 2.9% | |
| LA @ ARI | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 2.4% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 1.9% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | 0.10 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 3.1% | |
| NE @ DET | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.9% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 1.7% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 1.7% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.6% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 1.8% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 1.4% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.6% | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.4% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.2% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.8% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.1% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.0% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.7% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.1% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.9% | |
| MIA @ IND | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.8% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.6% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8% | |
| MIN @ GB | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0.3% | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0.3% | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0.2% | |
| WAS @ NYG | – | – | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1% | |
| KC @ ATL | – | – | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1% | |
| SF @ DAL | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| CAR @ NO | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| SEA @ LV | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% |