MLB predictions Mon, Oct 26

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · 31–20 last 30 days →

‹ ›

Updated 7h ago

Mon, Oct 26 · 8:00 PM ET

Brewers

47.4% 4.2

Rays

52.6% 4.5

World Series · G3 · MIL leads 2-0

ModelMarket

MIL -1.5 35.6% 34.9%

TB win 52.6% 51.8%

Total 8.7 7.0

Our bet TB -118 1.2% edge

Set at line TB 51.7% · model 52.9%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Yandy Díaz	0.14	1.14	1.78	0.51	0.41	0.08	0.57	0.01
Junior Caminero	0.20	0.98	1.75	0.64	0.52	0.03	0.71	0.05
Jackson Chourio	0.18	0.97	1.71	0.49	0.37	0.04	1.18	0.11
William Contreras	0.15	1.00	1.67	0.61	0.42	0.04	0.69	0.03
Ryan Vilade	0.12	0.94	1.51	0.48	0.42	0.06	0.99	0.03
Cooper Pratt	0.12	0.92	1.47	0.50	0.33	0.05	0.79	–
Nick Fortes	0.10	0.93	1.41	0.48	0.14	0.10	0.44	0.02
Jake Bauers	0.13	0.78	1.35	0.45	0.72	0.03	1.31	0.12
Brice Turang	0.10	0.82	1.35	0.36	0.60	0.01	1.24	0.16
Garrett Mitchell	0.12	0.74	1.32	0.48	0.48	0.05	1.42	0.16
Luis Lara	0.07	0.88	1.31	0.41	0.32	0.03	0.81	–
Jonny Deluca	0.08	0.89	1.30	0.44	0.22	0.02	0.84	0.15
Victor Mesa	0.11	0.77	1.29	0.42	0.32	0.04	0.77	0.03
Christian Yelich	0.11	0.79	1.28	0.39	0.38	0.04	1.17	0.09
Ben Williamson	0.06	0.91	1.27	0.44	0.33	0.03	0.75	0.04
Chandler Simpson	0.01	1.02	1.20	0.36	0.18	0.02	0.35	0.23
David Hamilton	0.07	0.67	1.04	0.37	0.28	0.02	0.88	0.20
Taylor Walls	0.05	0.68	0.99	0.30	0.38	0.03	0.80	0.14

	Workload	Results
Freddy Peralta	100%	5.1	22.5	5.3	2.60	4.5	0.18	2.43
Robert Gasser	100%	5.1	22.1	3.5	1.70	5.0	0.30	2.38
Garrett Cleavinger	14%	1.0	4.0	1.5	0.40	0.7	0.06	0.28
Griffin Jax	13%	1.0	4.1	1.3	0.37	0.8	0.00	0.44
Ian Seymour	48%	1.0	3.9	1.3	0.31	0.7	0.04	0.38
Bryan Baker	38%	1.0	4.1	1.1	0.43	0.8	0.01	0.42
Cam Booser	90%	0.9	3.7	1.1	0.30	0.7	0.02	0.41
Tyler Wells	29%	1.0	4.1	1.1	0.44	0.8	0.02	0.46
Kevin Kelly	61%	0.9	3.7	0.9	0.21	0.7	0.04	0.38
Kyle Harrison	20%	0.9	4.2	0.9	0.27	1.2	0.04	0.67
Aaron Ashby	50%	0.9	4.2	0.9	0.45	1.0	0.02	0.55
Trevor Megill	33%	1.0	3.9	0.9	0.19	0.8	0.04	0.34
Cole Sulser	92%	0.8	3.5	0.9	0.31	0.8	0.02	0.44
Steven Matz	55%	1.0	4.2	0.9	0.35	0.9	0.04	0.52
Shane Drohan	17%	0.9	3.8	0.8	0.28	0.8	0.04	0.42
Dl Hall	49%	0.9	4.1	0.8	0.47	0.8	0.02	0.45
Abner Uribe	85%	0.9	3.7	0.8	0.34	0.8	0.04	0.46
Jojo Romero	45%	0.9	4.0	0.7	0.35	0.9	0.03	0.45
Dustin May	10%	0.9	4.2	0.6	0.28	1.2	0.07	0.68
Antonio Senzatela	88%	0.8	3.7	0.5	0.27	1.0	0.03	0.57

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-4%	-1%	-5%	-1%	+4%
Weather	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Umpire				+4%	-2%
Home field (TB batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	MIL	TB	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Confirmed
K%	22.8%	17.8%	22.5%
BB%	9.8%	7.3%	8.1%
HR%	2.6%	2.4%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	R. Gasser	F. Peralta
K%	19.8%	21.6%	22.5%
BB%	7.2%	8.4%	8.1%
HR%	3.5%	3.3%	3.1%
Innings	5.4	5.5
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	+2%	+1%
BB%	-2%	-1%

HR watch

Junior Caminero0.20 HR
Jackson Chourio0.18 HR
William Contreras0.15 HR
Yandy Díaz0.14 HR
Jake Bauers0.13 HR

Batters

Rank by


MIL @ TB	0.18	0.97	1.71	0.49	0.37	0.11	0.04	1.18
MIL @ TB	0.13	0.78	1.35	0.45	0.72	0.12	0.03	1.31
MIL @ TB	0.20	0.98	1.75	0.64	0.52	0.05	0.03	0.71
MIL @ TB	0.12	0.74	1.32	0.48	0.48	0.16	0.05	1.42
MIL @ TB	0.10	0.82	1.35	0.36	0.60	0.16	0.01	1.24
MIL @ TB	0.14	1.14	1.78	0.51	0.41	0.01	0.08	0.57
MIL @ TB	0.15	1.00	1.67	0.61	0.42	0.03	0.04	0.69
MIL @ TB	0.12	0.94	1.51	0.48	0.42	0.03	0.06	0.99
MIL @ TB	0.11	0.79	1.28	0.39	0.38	0.09	0.04	1.17
MIL @ TB	0.12	0.92	1.47	0.50	0.33	–	0.05	0.79
MIL @ TB	0.08	0.89	1.30	0.44	0.22	0.15	0.02	0.84
MIL @ TB	0.06	0.91	1.27	0.44	0.33	0.04	0.03	0.75
MIL @ TB	0.07	0.88	1.31	0.41	0.32	–	0.03	0.81
MIL @ TB	0.11	0.77	1.29	0.42	0.32	0.03	0.04	0.77
MIL @ TB	0.10	0.93	1.41	0.48	0.14	0.02	0.10	0.44
MIL @ TB	0.07	0.67	1.04	0.37	0.28	0.20	0.02	0.88
MIL @ TB	0.05	0.68	0.99	0.30	0.38	0.14	0.03	0.80
MIL @ TB	0.01	1.02	1.20	0.36	0.18	0.23	0.02	0.35

Pitchers

Rank by


MIL @ TB	100.0%	5.1	5.3	2.60	4.5	0.18	2.43	22.5
MIL @ TB	100.0%	5.1	3.5	1.70	5.0	0.30	2.38	22.1
MIL @ TB	92.1%	0.8	0.9	0.31	0.8	0.02	0.44	3.5
MIL @ TB	89.5%	0.9	1.1	0.30	0.7	0.02	0.41	3.7
MIL @ TB	87.9%	0.8	0.5	0.27	1.0	0.03	0.57	3.7
MIL @ TB	85.3%	0.9	0.8	0.34	0.8	0.04	0.46	3.7
MIL @ TB	60.8%	0.9	0.9	0.21	0.7	0.04	0.38	3.7
MIL @ TB	54.5%	1.0	0.9	0.35	0.9	0.04	0.52	4.2
MIL @ TB	50.5%	0.9	0.9	0.45	1.0	0.02	0.55	4.2
MIL @ TB	49.0%	0.9	0.8	0.47	0.8	0.02	0.45	4.1
MIL @ TB	48.5%	1.0	1.3	0.31	0.7	0.04	0.38	3.9
MIL @ TB	45.2%	0.9	0.7	0.35	0.9	0.03	0.45	4.0
MIL @ TB	38.2%	1.0	1.1	0.43	0.8	0.01	0.42	4.1
MIL @ TB	32.8%	1.0	0.9	0.19	0.8	0.04	0.34	3.9
MIL @ TB	28.9%	1.0	1.1	0.44	0.8	0.02	0.46	4.1
MIL @ TB	19.7%	0.9	0.9	0.27	1.2	0.04	0.67	4.2
MIL @ TB	16.8%	0.9	0.8	0.28	0.8	0.04	0.42	3.8
MIL @ TB	14.5%	1.0	1.5	0.40	0.7	0.06	0.28	4.0
MIL @ TB	13.3%	1.0	1.3	0.37	0.8	0.00	0.44	4.1
MIL @ TB	10.1%	0.9	0.6	0.28	1.2	0.07	0.68	4.2

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Junior Caminero	MIL @ TB	7.4	1.75	0.64	0.52	0.05	0.03
2	Yandy Díaz	MIL @ TB	6.9	1.78	0.51	0.41	0.01	0.08
3	Jackson Chourio	MIL @ TB	6.9	1.71	0.49	0.37	0.11	0.04
4	William Contreras	MIL @ TB	6.8	1.67	0.61	0.42	0.03	0.04
5	Jake Bauers	MIL @ TB	6.8	1.35	0.45	0.72	0.12	0.03
6	Brice Turang	MIL @ TB	6.4	1.35	0.36	0.60	0.16	0.01
7	Garrett Mitchell	MIL @ TB	6.4	1.32	0.48	0.48	0.16	0.05
8	Ryan Vilade	MIL @ TB	6.2	1.51	0.48	0.42	0.03	0.06
9	Cooper Pratt	MIL @ TB	5.7	1.47	0.50	0.33	–	0.05
10	Christian Yelich	MIL @ TB	5.5	1.28	0.39	0.38	0.09	0.04
11	Jonny Deluca	MIL @ TB	5.5	1.30	0.44	0.22	0.15	0.02
12	Nick Fortes	MIL @ TB	5.3	1.41	0.48	0.14	0.02	0.10
13	Chandler Simpson	MIL @ TB	5.3	1.20	0.36	0.18	0.23	0.02
14	Ben Williamson	MIL @ TB	5.3	1.27	0.44	0.33	0.04	0.03
15	Victor Mesa	MIL @ TB	5.2	1.29	0.42	0.32	0.03	0.04
16	Luis Lara	MIL @ TB	5.1	1.31	0.41	0.32	–	0.03
17	David Hamilton	MIL @ TB	5.0	1.04	0.37	0.28	0.20	0.02
18	Taylor Walls	MIL @ TB	4.8	0.99	0.30	0.38	0.14	0.03

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Freddy Peralta	MIL @ TB	14.6	5.14	5.32	2.60	4.51	0.18	2.43
2	Robert Gasser	MIL @ TB	9.5	5.13	3.46	1.70	5.02	0.30	2.38
3	Cam Booser	MIL @ TB	3.0	0.91	1.07	0.30	0.73	0.02	0.41
4	Cole Sulser	MIL @ TB	2.3	0.84	0.89	0.31	0.75	0.02	0.44
5	Ian Seymour	MIL @ TB	2.1	0.96	1.32	0.31	0.72	0.04	0.38
6	Kevin Kelly	MIL @ TB	1.9	0.93	0.93	0.21	0.75	0.04	0.38
7	Abner Uribe	MIL @ TB	1.7	0.89	0.77	0.34	0.81	0.04	0.46
8	Bryan Baker	MIL @ TB	1.3	0.98	1.08	0.43	0.77	0.01	0.42
9	Steven Matz	MIL @ TB	1.2	0.97	0.86	0.35	0.94	0.04	0.52
10	Dl Hall	MIL @ TB	1.1	0.94	0.82	0.47	0.83	0.02	0.45
11	Trevor Megill	MIL @ TB	1.1	0.97	0.90	0.19	0.80	0.04	0.34
12	Aaron Ashby	MIL @ TB	1.0	0.93	0.91	0.45	0.97	0.02	0.55
13	Jojo Romero	MIL @ TB	0.9	0.94	0.74	0.35	0.86	0.03	0.45
14	Tyler Wells	MIL @ TB	0.9	0.98	1.06	0.44	0.80	0.02	0.46
15	Garrett Cleavinger	MIL @ TB	0.7	0.98	1.50	0.40	0.72	0.06	0.28
16	Antonio Senzatela	MIL @ TB	0.7	0.85	0.53	0.27	0.95	0.03	0.57
17	Griffin Jax	MIL @ TB	0.6	0.99	1.35	0.37	0.82	0.00	0.44
18	Shane Drohan	MIL @ TB	0.4	0.93	0.82	0.28	0.80	0.04	0.42
19	Kyle Harrison	MIL @ TB	0.3	0.93	0.92	0.27	1.19	0.04	0.67
20	Dustin May	MIL @ TB	0.1	0.93	0.64	0.28	1.17	0.07	0.68

MLB predictions Mon, Oct 26

Player props

Batters

Pitchers

Game conditions

Matchup

Model vs market

Movement

HR watch

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Games

Batters

Pitchers

Game conditions

Matchup

Model vs market

Movement

Players

HR watch

Batters

Pitchers

Fantasy

Batters

Pitchers