MLB
Model record
141–96
favorite straight-up · last 30 days
59.5%
favorite win rate (237 graded)
3.2
runs: average miss on the projected margin
3.2
runs: average miss on the projected total
Day by day
8–9
Sep 25
5–8
Sep 26
11–3
Sep 27
3–1
Sep 29
3–1
Sep 30
1–0
Oct 1
3–1
Oct 3
1–1
Oct 4
0–2
Oct 5
2–0
Oct 6
2–2
Oct 7
1–0
Oct 8
1–0
Oct 10
0–1
Oct 11
favorite won · favorite lost
Calibration
50%–60%
56.6% n=514
60%–70%
68.3% n=145
bar = how often the favorite actually won · notch = what the model predicted
Recently graded
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 11 → | |||
| LAD | ✗ miss | 50.6% | LAD 1, MIL 2 |
| Sat, Oct 10 → | |||
| CLE | ✓ hit | 66.3% | CWS 0, CLE 2 |
13 earlier slates
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 → | |||
| CLE | ✓ hit | 60.1% | CLE 9, CWS 5 |
| Wed, Oct 7 → | |||
| LAD | ✓ hit | 57.8% | LAD 4, ATL 1 |
| SD | ✗ miss | 52.2% | MIL 3, SD 1 |
| NYY | ✗ miss | 58.3% | TB 4, NYY 3 |
| CLE | ✓ hit | 51.5% | CLE 9, CWS 3 |
| Tue, Oct 6 → | |||
| LAD | ✓ hit | 53.2% | LAD 3, ATL 1 |
| SD | ✓ hit | 57.5% | MIL 3, SD 4 |
| Mon, Oct 5 → | |||
| NYY | ✗ miss | 53.0% | NYY 2, TB 5 |
| CLE | ✗ miss | 65.2% | CWS 4, CLE 3 |
| Sun, Oct 4 → | |||
| LAD | ✗ miss | 54.3% | ATL 3, LAD 2 |
| MIL | ✓ hit | 57.7% | SD 3, MIL 4 |
| Sat, Oct 3 → | |||
| LAD | ✓ hit | 67.1% | ATL 3, LAD 5 |
| MIL | ✓ hit | 63.6% | SD 2, MIL 3 |
| TB | ✓ hit | 56.7% | NYY 0, TB 1 |
| CLE | ✗ miss | 61.0% | CWS 3, CLE 0 |
| Thu, Oct 1 → | |||
| ATL | ✓ hit | 57.5% | PHI 2, ATL 6 |
| Wed, Sep 30 → | |||
| SD | ✓ hit | 57.6% | CHC 1, SD 4 |
| NYY | ✓ hit | 55.0% | BOS 2, NYY 9 |
| PHI | ✓ hit | 51.3% | PHI 4, ATL 3 |
| HOU | ✗ miss | 54.7% | CWS 7, HOU 3 |
| Tue, Sep 29 → | |||
| SD | ✓ hit | 51.5% | CHC 0, SD 8 |
| NYY | ✓ hit | 54.4% | BOS 0, NYY 9 |
| ATL | ✓ hit | 53.5% | PHI 3, ATL 5 |
| HOU | ✗ miss | 50.2% | CWS 6, HOU 3 |
| Sun, Sep 27 → | |||
| NYM | ✗ miss | 50.7% | NYM 4, WSH 6 |
| TOR | ✓ hit | 57.8% | CIN 1, TOR 5 |
| SEA | ✓ hit | 62.3% | LAA 3, SEA 7 |
| LAD | ✓ hit | 68.1% | LAD 5, SF 1 |
| AZ | ✗ miss | 59.2% | AZ 4, SD 9 |
| PHI | ✓ hit | 57.8% | TB 3, PHI 7 |
| MIN | ✓ hit | 59.4% | TEX 4, MIN 6 |
| MIL | ✓ hit | 66.1% | STL 4, MIL 6 |
| MIA | ✓ hit | 52.0% | ATL 3, MIA 5 |
| KC | ✓ hit | 53.1% | CLE 2, KC 3 |
| DET | ✗ miss | 56.7% | PIT 4, DET 2 |
| CWS | ✓ hit | 52.3% | COL 2, CWS 4 |
| CHC | ✓ hit | 56.6% | CHC 6, BOS 2 |
| HOU | ✓ hit | 52.9% | HOU 9, ATH 0 |
| Sat, Sep 26 → | |||
| SEA | ✓ hit | 61.0% | LAA 4, SEA 8 |
| AZ | ✗ miss | 50.7% | AZ 7, SD 10 |
| PHI | ✗ miss | 50.6% | TB 12, PHI 1 |
| MIN | ✗ miss | 52.8% | TEX 6, MIN 2 |
| MIL | ✓ hit | 58.1% | STL 2, MIL 3 |
| KC | ✗ miss | 52.8% | CLE 11, KC 5 |
| CWS | ✗ miss | 53.9% | COL 9, CWS 6 |
| HOU | ✓ hit | 55.5% | HOU 13, ATH 2 |
| TOR | ✗ miss | 59.2% | CIN 5, TOR 1 |
| LAD | ✓ hit | 63.5% | LAD 4, SF 3 |
| ATL | ✓ hit | 53.3% | ATL 8, MIA 3 |
| PIT | ✗ miss | 52.6% | PIT 3, DET 4 |
| WSH | ✗ miss | 55.4% | NYM 7, WSH 1 |
| Fri, Sep 25 → | |||
| NYM | ✗ miss | 51.6% | NYM 6, WSH 7 |
| TOR | ✓ hit | 63.3% | CIN 5, TOR 6 |
| SEA | ✗ miss | 57.8% | LAA 7, SEA 5 |
| LAD | ✓ hit | 67.4% | LAD 2, SF 0 |
| AZ | ✓ hit | 54.1% | AZ 11, SD 4 |
| PHI | ✗ miss | 57.4% | TB 2, PHI 0 |
| BAL | ✗ miss | 51.1% | BAL 3, NYY 6 |
| TEX | ✗ miss | 52.6% | TEX 2, MIN 10 |
| MIL | ✓ hit | 55.0% | STL 4, MIL 8 |
| ATL | ✗ miss | 55.4% | ATL 0, MIA 3 |
| CLE | ✓ hit | 52.2% | CLE 12, KC 9 |
| DET | ✓ hit | 54.0% | PIT 7, DET 8 |
| CWS | ✓ hit | 55.8% | COL 1, CWS 6 |
| HOU | ✗ miss | 61.2% | HOU 5, ATH 6 |
| NYY | ✗ miss | 50.9% | BAL 10, NYY 2 |
| BOS | ✓ hit | 51.6% | CHC 0, BOS 2 |
| CHC | ✗ miss | 50.7% | CHC 3, BOS 4 |
| Thu, Sep 24 → | |||
| SEA | ✗ miss | 65.5% | LAA 6, SEA 4 |
| MIL | ✓ hit | 54.2% | MIL 5, PHI 1 |
| NYY | ✓ hit | 50.7% | TB 4, NYY 6 |
| LAD | ✗ miss | 60.6% | SD 4, LAD 2 |
| BOS | ✗ miss | 50.8% | CLE 1, BOS 0 |
| ATL | ✗ miss | 66.3% | CIN 7, ATL 6 |
| HOU | ✓ hit | 57.2% | HOU 7, ATH 5 |
| NYM | ✗ miss | 54.0% | NYM 1, TEX 3 |
| KC | ✗ miss | 52.3% | CWS 9, KC 1 |
| AZ | ✓ hit | 62.3% | AZ 12, COL 8 |
Player props accuracy
| Market | Graded | Avg miss | Bias | Projected vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 9587 | 0.22 | +0.01 | 0.13 vs 0.12 |
| RBI | 9587 | 0.65 | +0.04 | 0.50 vs 0.46 |
| Hit By Pitch | 9587 | 0.09 | -0.00 | 0.05 vs 0.05 |
| Total Bases | 9587 | 1.34 | +0.07 | 1.49 vs 1.41 |
| Batter Strikeouts | 9587 | 0.67 | +0.06 | 0.94 vs 0.88 |
| Hits | 9587 | 0.69 | +0.04 | 0.90 vs 0.86 |
| BB | 9587 | 0.49 | +0.05 | 0.39 vs 0.35 |
| Walks Allowed | 4693 | 0.69 | +0.05 | 0.80 vs 0.74 |
| Hit By Pitch Allowed | 4693 | 0.17 | -0.01 | 0.09 vs 0.10 |
| Hits Allowed | 4693 | 1.10 | -0.03 | 1.83 vs 1.85 |
| Strikeouts | 4693 | 1.06 | +0.00 | 1.92 vs 1.92 |
| Batters Faced | 4693 | 2.33 | -0.07 | 8.50 vs 8.57 |
Last 60 days. Bias is projected minus actual: + means the model projects high, and a faded bias is within noise. Not graded: 143,731 (69,665 did not play, 44,713 with no reliable actual, 29,353 from flagged games).