MLB predictions Sat, Oct 24

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · model went 1–0 · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 2d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Sat, Oct 24

Rays

4 47.9% · proj 3.6

Brewers

5 52.1% · proj 3.8

World Series · G2 · MIL leads 1-0

ModelMarket

TB -1.5 36.0% 33.9%

MIL win 52.1% 52.3%

Total 7.5 6.5

Our bet MIL -120 ✓ Won

Set at line MIL 52.2% · model 52.8%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Junior Caminero	0.21	0.89	1.69	0.53	0.37	0.01	1.09	0.04
Jackson Chourio	0.18	0.90	1.60	0.42	0.24	0.01	1.10	0.09
Yandy Díaz	0.13	1.03	1.60	0.38	0.31	0.04	0.94	0.01
William Contreras	0.14	0.94	1.53	0.46	0.29	0.03	0.63	0.03
Jake Bauers	0.17	0.73	1.39	0.40	0.50	0.03	1.38	0.09
Jonathan Aranda	0.15	0.79	1.38	0.37	0.41	0.05	1.43	0.01
Brice Turang	0.11	0.75	1.27	0.33	0.46	0.01	1.21	0.13
Liam Hicks	0.11	0.76	1.25	0.38	0.33	0.05	0.72	0.01
Jonny Deluca	0.09	0.76	1.25	0.36	0.16	0.02	1.10	0.12
Victor Mesa	0.14	0.66	1.24	0.39	0.27	0.02	1.01	0.02
Richie Palacios	0.12	0.73	1.23	0.39	0.37	0.04	1.00	0.10
Cooper Pratt	0.10	0.77	1.21	0.38	0.26	0.03	0.74	–
Garrett Mitchell	0.12	0.70	1.20	0.38	0.35	0.03	1.43	0.13
Christian Yelich	0.12	0.71	1.18	0.36	0.27	0.02	1.16	0.07
Luis Lara	0.09	0.72	1.17	0.36	0.23	0.02	0.88	–
Chandler Simpson	0.01	0.92	1.13	0.29	0.18	0.00	0.56	0.21
David Hamilton	0.06	0.62	0.94	0.27	0.18	0.02	0.93	0.17
Taylor Walls	0.05	0.56	0.86	0.26	0.32	0.01	1.06	0.12

	Workload	Results
Drew Rasmussen	100%	5.5	22.6	6.1	1.66	4.51	0.12	2.10
Logan Henderson	100%	5.6	22.3	5.9	1.41	4.21	0.11	1.78
Ian Seymour	80%	0.9	3.7	1.2	0.30	0.74	0.02	0.38
Garrett Cleavinger	3%	0.8	3.8	1.2	0.59	0.81	0.03	0.44
Griffin Jax	11%	0.9	3.9	1.1	0.35	0.83	0.01	0.45
Aaron Ashby	33%	0.9	4.2	1.1	0.44	0.86	0.05	0.51
Bryan Baker	31%	0.9	4.0	1.0	0.44	0.70	0.01	0.35
Tyler Wells	50%	0.9	3.8	1.0	0.34	0.72	0.02	0.44
Kevin Kelly	40%	0.9	3.8	1.0	0.26	0.78	0.02	0.41
Kyle Harrison	35%	0.9	4.0	1.0	0.32	0.91	0.06	0.47
Cole Sulser	34%	0.9	3.9	1.0	0.38	0.73	0.02	0.39
Abner Uribe	37%	0.9	3.8	1.0	0.36	0.75	0.02	0.37
Cam Booser	85%	0.8	3.3	0.9	0.32	0.61	0.02	0.40
Trevor Megill	39%	1.0	4.0	0.9	0.27	0.83	0.02	0.43
Freddy Peralta	8%	0.9	4.2	0.9	0.52	0.87	0.01	0.52
Dl Hall	74%	0.9	3.8	0.9	0.48	0.70	0.03	0.45
Shane Drohan	16%	0.9	4.1	0.8	0.45	0.90	0.04	0.52
Steven Matz	17%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.40	0.83	0.03	0.42
Jojo Romero	73%	0.9	3.7	0.8	0.33	0.73	0.05	0.37
Dustin May	12%	0.9	3.9	0.7	0.42	0.77	0.03	0.48
Antonio Senzatela	71%	0.9	3.9	0.6	0.35	0.98	0.03	0.56

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-8%	-5%	+8%	+3%	+9%
Weather	0%	0%	-1%	-1%	+1%
Umpire				0%	0%
Home field (MIL batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	TB	MIL	League
Hitters
Lineup	Confirmed	Projected
K%	17.3%	22.8%	22.5%
BB%	8.5%	9.8%	8.1%
HR%	2.5%	2.6%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	D. Rasmussen	L. Henderson
K%	24.4%	29.7%	22.5%
BB%	5.0%	5.7%	8.1%
HR%	3.0%	3.5%	3.1%
Innings	5.6	5.6
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	-2%	+2%
BB%	+2%	-2%

HR watch

Junior Caminero0.21 HR
Jackson Chourio0.18 HR
Jake Bauers0.17 HR
Jonathan Aranda0.15 HR
William Contreras0.14 HR

Batters

Rank by


TB @ MIL	0.21	0.89	1.69	0.53	0.37	0.04	0.01	1.09
TB @ MIL	0.17	0.73	1.39	0.40	0.50	0.09	0.03	1.38
TB @ MIL	0.15	0.79	1.38	0.37	0.41	0.01	0.05	1.43
TB @ MIL	0.18	0.90	1.60	0.42	0.24	0.09	0.01	1.10
TB @ MIL	0.13	1.03	1.60	0.38	0.31	0.01	0.04	0.94
TB @ MIL	0.12	0.70	1.20	0.38	0.35	0.13	0.03	1.43
TB @ MIL	0.11	0.75	1.27	0.33	0.46	0.13	0.01	1.21
TB @ MIL	0.14	0.94	1.53	0.46	0.29	0.03	0.03	0.63
TB @ MIL	0.12	0.73	1.23	0.39	0.37	0.10	0.04	1.00
TB @ MIL	0.12	0.71	1.18	0.36	0.27	0.07	0.02	1.16
TB @ MIL	0.09	0.76	1.25	0.36	0.16	0.12	0.02	1.10
TB @ MIL	0.14	0.66	1.24	0.39	0.27	0.02	0.02	1.01
TB @ MIL	0.11	0.76	1.25	0.38	0.33	0.01	0.05	0.72
TB @ MIL	0.10	0.77	1.21	0.38	0.26	–	0.03	0.74
TB @ MIL	0.09	0.72	1.17	0.36	0.23	–	0.02	0.88
TB @ MIL	0.01	0.92	1.13	0.29	0.18	0.21	0.00	0.56
TB @ MIL	0.05	0.56	0.86	0.26	0.32	0.12	0.01	1.06
TB @ MIL	0.06	0.62	0.94	0.27	0.18	0.17	0.02	0.93

Pitchers

Rank by


TB @ MIL	100.0%	5.5	6.1	1.66	4.51	0.12	2.10	22.6
TB @ MIL	100.0%	5.6	5.9	1.41	4.21	0.11	1.78	22.3
TB @ MIL	85.3%	0.8	0.9	0.32	0.61	0.02	0.40	3.3
TB @ MIL	80.0%	0.9	1.2	0.30	0.74	0.02	0.38	3.7
TB @ MIL	74.4%	0.9	0.9	0.48	0.70	0.03	0.45	3.8
TB @ MIL	72.9%	0.9	0.8	0.33	0.73	0.05	0.37	3.7
TB @ MIL	70.6%	0.9	0.6	0.35	0.98	0.03	0.56	3.9
TB @ MIL	50.4%	0.9	1.0	0.34	0.72	0.02	0.44	3.8
TB @ MIL	39.7%	0.9	1.0	0.26	0.78	0.02	0.41	3.8
TB @ MIL	38.7%	1.0	0.9	0.27	0.83	0.02	0.43	4.0
TB @ MIL	37.3%	0.9	1.0	0.36	0.75	0.02	0.37	3.8
TB @ MIL	35.0%	0.9	1.0	0.32	0.91	0.06	0.47	4.0
TB @ MIL	34.3%	0.9	1.0	0.38	0.73	0.02	0.39	3.9
TB @ MIL	33.2%	0.9	1.1	0.44	0.86	0.05	0.51	4.2
TB @ MIL	30.6%	0.9	1.0	0.44	0.70	0.01	0.35	4.0
TB @ MIL	17.4%	0.9	0.8	0.40	0.83	0.03	0.42	4.0
TB @ MIL	16.4%	0.9	0.8	0.45	0.90	0.04	0.52	4.1
TB @ MIL	11.8%	0.9	0.7	0.42	0.77	0.03	0.48	3.9
TB @ MIL	11.3%	0.9	1.1	0.35	0.83	0.01	0.45	3.9
TB @ MIL	8.3%	0.9	0.9	0.52	0.87	0.01	0.52	4.2
TB @ MIL	3.2%	0.8	1.2	0.59	0.81	0.03	0.44	3.8

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Junior Caminero	TB @ MIL	6.6	1.69	0.53	0.37	0.04	0.01
2	Jake Bauers	TB @ MIL	6.1	1.39	0.40	0.50	0.09	0.03
3	Jackson Chourio	TB @ MIL	6.0	1.60	0.42	0.24	0.09	0.01
4	William Contreras	TB @ MIL	5.8	1.53	0.46	0.29	0.03	0.03
5	Yandy Díaz	TB @ MIL	5.8	1.60	0.38	0.31	0.01	0.04
6	Brice Turang	TB @ MIL	5.7	1.27	0.33	0.46	0.13	0.01
7	Jonathan Aranda	TB @ MIL	5.5	1.38	0.37	0.41	0.01	0.05
8	Richie Palacios	TB @ MIL	5.4	1.23	0.39	0.37	0.10	0.04
9	Garrett Mitchell	TB @ MIL	5.4	1.20	0.38	0.35	0.13	0.03
10	Liam Hicks	TB @ MIL	5.0	1.25	0.38	0.33	0.01	0.05
11	Jonny Deluca	TB @ MIL	4.9	1.25	0.36	0.16	0.12	0.02
12	Chandler Simpson	TB @ MIL	4.8	1.13	0.29	0.18	0.21	0.00
13	Christian Yelich	TB @ MIL	4.8	1.18	0.36	0.27	0.07	0.02
14	Victor Mesa	TB @ MIL	4.8	1.24	0.39	0.27	0.02	0.02
15	Cooper Pratt	TB @ MIL	4.6	1.21	0.38	0.26	–	0.03
16	Luis Lara	TB @ MIL	4.4	1.17	0.36	0.23	–	0.02
17	David Hamilton	TB @ MIL	4.2	0.94	0.27	0.18	0.17	0.02
18	Taylor Walls	TB @ MIL	4.1	0.86	0.26	0.32	0.12	0.01

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Logan Henderson	TB @ MIL	21.9	5.65	5.92	1.41	4.21	0.11	1.78
2	Drew Rasmussen	TB @ MIL	20.4	5.55	6.09	1.66	4.51	0.12	2.10
3	Ian Seymour	TB @ MIL	3.0	0.90	1.18	0.30	0.74	0.02	0.38
4	Cam Booser	TB @ MIL	2.4	0.81	0.95	0.32	0.61	0.02	0.40
5	Jojo Romero	TB @ MIL	1.8	0.89	0.77	0.33	0.73	0.05	0.37
6	Dl Hall	TB @ MIL	1.7	0.88	0.87	0.48	0.70	0.03	0.45
7	Tyler Wells	TB @ MIL	1.5	0.91	1.02	0.34	0.72	0.02	0.44
8	Kevin Kelly	TB @ MIL	1.3	0.94	0.99	0.26	0.78	0.02	0.41
9	Abner Uribe	TB @ MIL	1.2	0.94	0.98	0.36	0.75	0.02	0.37
10	Trevor Megill	TB @ MIL	1.1	0.98	0.92	0.27	0.83	0.02	0.43
11	Cole Sulser	TB @ MIL	1.1	0.94	0.98	0.38	0.73	0.02	0.39
12	Bryan Baker	TB @ MIL	1.0	0.95	1.03	0.44	0.70	0.01	0.35
13	Kyle Harrison	TB @ MIL	1.0	0.94	0.99	0.32	0.91	0.06	0.47
14	Aaron Ashby	TB @ MIL	0.9	0.95	1.06	0.44	0.86	0.05	0.51
15	Antonio Senzatela	TB @ MIL	0.8	0.90	0.64	0.35	0.98	0.03	0.56
16	Steven Matz	TB @ MIL	0.4	0.95	0.80	0.40	0.83	0.03	0.42
17	Griffin Jax	TB @ MIL	0.4	0.93	1.09	0.35	0.83	0.01	0.45
18	Shane Drohan	TB @ MIL	0.3	0.95	0.80	0.45	0.90	0.04	0.52
19	Dustin May	TB @ MIL	0.2	0.94	0.75	0.42	0.77	0.03	0.48
20	Freddy Peralta	TB @ MIL	0.2	0.93	0.92	0.52	0.87	0.01	0.52
21	Garrett Cleavinger	TB @ MIL	0.1	0.84	1.16	0.59	0.81	0.03	0.44

MLB predictions Sat, Oct 24

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