MLB predictions Fri, Oct 23

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · model went 1–0 · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 3d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Fri, Oct 23

Rays

2 39.2% · proj 3.4

Brewers

3 60.8% · proj 4.4

World Series · G1

ModelMarket

MIL -1.5 41.4% 41.7%

MIL win 60.8% 63.3%

Total 7.8 6.5

Our bet TB +154 ✗ Lost

Set at line TB 37.6% · model 41.8%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Jackson Chourio	0.20	1.01	1.83	0.48	0.23	0.01	0.81	0.10
Jake Bauers	0.24	0.91	1.82	0.52	0.46	0.02	1.04	0.10
William Contreras	0.15	0.98	1.65	0.55	0.26	0.02	0.48	0.03
Junior Caminero	0.20	0.89	1.63	0.53	0.36	0.03	1.25	0.04
Christian Yelich	0.16	0.90	1.58	0.46	0.28	0.01	1.00	0.09
Yandy Díaz	0.12	0.91	1.40	0.36	0.30	0.07	1.14	0.01
Garrett Mitchell	0.14	0.72	1.34	0.41	0.28	0.03	1.13	0.12
Cooper Pratt	0.12	0.80	1.34	0.43	0.23	0.02	0.56	–
Sal Frelick	0.09	0.84	1.31	0.38	0.19	0.02	0.32	0.07
Brice Turang	0.13	0.73	1.30	0.41	0.37	0.00	0.93	0.12
Victor Mesa	0.13	0.74	1.30	0.40	0.36	0.03	1.24	0.03
Liam Hicks	0.10	0.84	1.26	0.36	0.43	0.08	0.83	0.02
Jonathan Aranda	0.12	0.70	1.19	0.34	0.43	0.07	1.76	0.01
David Hamilton	0.08	0.67	1.11	0.33	0.17	0.01	0.67	0.17
Richie Palacios	0.10	0.65	1.09	0.33	0.36	0.06	1.08	0.10
Jonny Deluca	0.08	0.69	1.07	0.33	0.17	0.02	1.27	0.11
Chandler Simpson	0.01	0.87	1.06	0.31	0.20	0.01	0.65	0.21
Taylor Walls	0.05	0.55	0.84	0.22	0.32	0.01	1.32	0.11

	Workload	Results
Jacob Misiorowski	100%	5.8	23.1	7.5	1.74	4.1	0.23	1.81
Nick Martínez	100%	5.4	22.7	3.8	1.37	5.2	0.08	2.67
Griffin Jax	10%	1.0	4.1	1.2	0.41	0.8	0.02	0.45
Ian Seymour	38%	0.9	3.9	1.2	0.32	0.7	0.02	0.32
Bryan Baker	27%	0.9	3.9	1.1	0.45	0.7	0.02	0.40
Aaron Ashby	83%	0.9	3.6	1.0	0.33	0.7	0.03	0.40
Cam Booser	79%	0.8	3.5	1.0	0.30	0.6	0.01	0.34
Trevor Megill	39%	1.0	4.0	1.0	0.23	0.8	0.03	0.45
Kyle Harrison	18%	1.0	4.0	1.0	0.31	0.8	0.04	0.39
Tyler Wells	26%	0.9	3.8	1.0	0.32	0.8	0.02	0.38
Freddy Peralta	11%	0.9	4.3	0.9	0.64	0.9	0.04	0.66
Dustin May	11%	1.0	4.2	0.9	0.41	0.9	0.06	0.44
Cole Sulser	45%	0.9	4.0	0.9	0.43	0.8	0.01	0.49
Dl Hall	43%	0.9	4.0	0.9	0.50	0.7	0.05	0.44
Abner Uribe	84%	0.9	3.6	0.9	0.35	0.7	0.03	0.37
Jojo Romero	45%	0.9	3.9	0.9	0.30	0.8	0.06	0.37
Kevin Kelly	80%	0.9	3.5	0.8	0.25	0.7	0.03	0.43
Shane Drohan	14%	1.0	4.2	0.8	0.39	0.9	0.04	0.40
Steven Matz	42%	0.9	3.8	0.8	0.32	0.8	0.01	0.40
Antonio Senzatela	41%	0.9	4.1	0.6	0.36	1.0	0.04	0.54

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-8%	-5%	+8%	+3%	+9%
Weather	0%	0%	-1%	-1%	+1%
Umpire				-3%	+2%
Home field (MIL batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	TB	MIL	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Confirmed
K%	17.3%	21.5%	22.5%
BB%	8.5%	9.7%	8.1%
HR%	2.5%	2.6%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	N. Martínez	J. Misiorowski
K%	15.4%	35.9%	22.5%
BB%	4.0%	7.2%	8.1%
HR%	4.0%	2.8%	3.1%
Innings	6.0	5.7
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	-2%	+2%
BB%	+2%	-2%

HR watch

Jake Bauers0.24 HR
Jackson Chourio0.20 HR
Junior Caminero0.20 HR
Christian Yelich0.16 HR
William Contreras0.15 HR

Batters

Rank by


TB @ MIL	0.24	0.91	1.82	0.52	0.46	0.10	0.02	1.04
TB @ MIL	0.20	0.89	1.63	0.53	0.36	0.04	0.03	1.25
TB @ MIL	0.20	1.01	1.83	0.48	0.23	0.10	0.01	0.81
TB @ MIL	0.12	0.70	1.19	0.34	0.43	0.01	0.07	1.76
TB @ MIL	0.16	0.90	1.58	0.46	0.28	0.09	0.01	1.00
TB @ MIL	0.12	0.91	1.40	0.36	0.30	0.01	0.07	1.14
TB @ MIL	0.13	0.74	1.30	0.40	0.36	0.03	0.03	1.24
TB @ MIL	0.14	0.72	1.34	0.41	0.28	0.12	0.03	1.13
TB @ MIL	0.15	0.98	1.65	0.55	0.26	0.03	0.02	0.48
TB @ MIL	0.13	0.73	1.30	0.41	0.37	0.12	0.00	0.93
TB @ MIL	0.10	0.84	1.26	0.36	0.43	0.02	0.08	0.83
TB @ MIL	0.10	0.65	1.09	0.33	0.36	0.10	0.06	1.08
TB @ MIL	0.08	0.69	1.07	0.33	0.17	0.11	0.02	1.27
TB @ MIL	0.12	0.80	1.34	0.43	0.23	–	0.02	0.56
TB @ MIL	0.05	0.55	0.84	0.22	0.32	0.11	0.01	1.32
TB @ MIL	0.01	0.87	1.06	0.31	0.20	0.21	0.01	0.65
TB @ MIL	0.09	0.84	1.31	0.38	0.19	0.07	0.02	0.32
TB @ MIL	0.08	0.67	1.11	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	0.67

Pitchers

Rank by


TB @ MIL	100.0%	5.8	7.5	1.74	4.1	0.23	1.81	23.1
TB @ MIL	100.0%	5.4	3.8	1.37	5.2	0.08	2.67	22.7
TB @ MIL	83.5%	0.9	0.9	0.35	0.7	0.03	0.37	3.6
TB @ MIL	83.2%	0.9	1.0	0.33	0.7	0.03	0.40	3.6
TB @ MIL	80.5%	0.9	0.8	0.25	0.7	0.03	0.43	3.5
TB @ MIL	78.7%	0.8	1.0	0.30	0.6	0.01	0.34	3.5
TB @ MIL	45.1%	0.9	0.9	0.43	0.8	0.01	0.49	4.0
TB @ MIL	44.6%	0.9	0.9	0.30	0.8	0.06	0.37	3.9
TB @ MIL	43.2%	0.9	0.9	0.50	0.7	0.05	0.44	4.0
TB @ MIL	41.9%	0.9	0.8	0.32	0.8	0.01	0.40	3.8
TB @ MIL	41.0%	0.9	0.6	0.36	1.0	0.04	0.54	4.1
TB @ MIL	39.2%	1.0	1.0	0.23	0.8	0.03	0.45	4.0
TB @ MIL	38.2%	0.9	1.2	0.32	0.7	0.02	0.32	3.9
TB @ MIL	27.1%	0.9	1.1	0.45	0.7	0.02	0.40	3.9
TB @ MIL	25.9%	0.9	1.0	0.32	0.8	0.02	0.38	3.8
TB @ MIL	18.3%	1.0	1.0	0.31	0.8	0.04	0.39	4.0
TB @ MIL	14.4%	1.0	0.8	0.39	0.9	0.04	0.40	4.2
TB @ MIL	10.8%	1.0	0.9	0.41	0.9	0.06	0.44	4.2
TB @ MIL	10.7%	0.9	0.9	0.64	0.9	0.04	0.66	4.3
TB @ MIL	10.5%	1.0	1.2	0.41	0.8	0.02	0.45	4.1

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Jake Bauers	TB @ MIL	7.4	1.82	0.52	0.46	0.10	0.02
2	Jackson Chourio	TB @ MIL	6.7	1.83	0.48	0.23	0.10	0.01
3	Junior Caminero	TB @ MIL	6.4	1.63	0.53	0.36	0.04	0.03
4	William Contreras	TB @ MIL	6.2	1.65	0.55	0.26	0.03	0.02
5	Christian Yelich	TB @ MIL	6.1	1.58	0.46	0.28	0.09	0.01
6	Brice Turang	TB @ MIL	5.6	1.30	0.41	0.37	0.12	0.00
7	Garrett Mitchell	TB @ MIL	5.6	1.34	0.41	0.28	0.12	0.03
8	Liam Hicks	TB @ MIL	5.4	1.26	0.36	0.43	0.02	0.08
9	Yandy Díaz	TB @ MIL	5.3	1.40	0.36	0.30	0.01	0.07
10	Victor Mesa	TB @ MIL	5.2	1.30	0.40	0.36	0.03	0.03
11	Jonathan Aranda	TB @ MIL	5.1	1.19	0.34	0.43	0.01	0.07
12	Richie Palacios	TB @ MIL	5.0	1.09	0.33	0.36	0.10	0.06
13	Cooper Pratt	TB @ MIL	5.0	1.34	0.43	0.23	–	0.02
14	Sal Frelick	TB @ MIL	4.9	1.31	0.38	0.19	0.07	0.02
15	Chandler Simpson	TB @ MIL	4.8	1.06	0.31	0.20	0.21	0.01
16	David Hamilton	TB @ MIL	4.7	1.11	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01
17	Jonny Deluca	TB @ MIL	4.4	1.07	0.33	0.17	0.11	0.02
18	Taylor Walls	TB @ MIL	4.0	0.84	0.22	0.32	0.11	0.01

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Jacob Misiorowski	TB @ MIL	26.6	5.77	7.55	1.74	4.14	0.23	1.81
2	Nick Martínez	TB @ MIL	11.1	5.45	3.78	1.37	5.18	0.08	2.67
3	Cam Booser	TB @ MIL	2.6	0.84	1.01	0.30	0.63	0.01	0.34
4	Aaron Ashby	TB @ MIL	2.5	0.86	1.01	0.33	0.74	0.03	0.40
5	Abner Uribe	TB @ MIL	2.2	0.85	0.86	0.35	0.72	0.03	0.37
6	Kevin Kelly	TB @ MIL	2.0	0.85	0.85	0.25	0.72	0.03	0.43
7	Ian Seymour	TB @ MIL	1.5	0.94	1.15	0.32	0.73	0.02	0.32
8	Jojo Romero	TB @ MIL	1.3	0.95	0.85	0.30	0.76	0.06	0.37
9	Trevor Megill	TB @ MIL	1.2	0.98	0.98	0.23	0.83	0.03	0.45
10	Dl Hall	TB @ MIL	1.1	0.95	0.88	0.50	0.72	0.05	0.44
11	Steven Matz	TB @ MIL	1.1	0.93	0.80	0.32	0.78	0.01	0.40
12	Cole Sulser	TB @ MIL	1.0	0.91	0.90	0.43	0.82	0.01	0.49
13	Bryan Baker	TB @ MIL	0.9	0.95	1.06	0.45	0.69	0.02	0.40
14	Tyler Wells	TB @ MIL	0.8	0.94	0.96	0.32	0.75	0.02	0.38
15	Kyle Harrison	TB @ MIL	0.6	0.97	0.96	0.31	0.79	0.04	0.39
16	Antonio Senzatela	TB @ MIL	0.6	0.95	0.65	0.36	0.99	0.04	0.54
17	Griffin Jax	TB @ MIL	0.4	0.97	1.17	0.41	0.82	0.02	0.45
18	Shane Drohan	TB @ MIL	0.3	0.98	0.81	0.39	0.90	0.04	0.40
19	Dustin May	TB @ MIL	0.3	0.98	0.93	0.41	0.86	0.06	0.44
20	Freddy Peralta	TB @ MIL	0.2	0.94	0.93	0.64	0.89	0.04	0.66

MLB predictions Fri, Oct 23

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