MLB predictions Mon, Oct 19

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · model went 0–1 · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 7d ago

✗ Favorite lost Final · Mon, Oct 19

Guardians

3 52.4% · proj 4.5

Rays

7 47.6% · proj 4.3

ALCS Game 6 · TB leads 3-2

ModelMarket

TB -1.5 32.4% 38.4%

CLE win 52.4% 41.4%

Total 8.8 7.0

Our bet CLE +125 ✗ Lost

Set at line CLE 42.5% · model 53.8%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
José Ramírez	0.15	1.07	1.80	0.55	0.48	0.03	0.52	0.24
Jo Adell	0.15	1.00	1.66	0.61	0.21	0.15	1.06	0.09
Yandy Díaz	0.12	1.09	1.66	0.45	0.43	0.07	0.79	0.01
Junior Caminero	0.18	0.91	1.65	0.64	0.49	0.02	0.89	0.04
Chase Delauter	0.13	0.99	1.62	0.59	0.50	0.02	0.69	–
Victor Mesa	0.13	0.81	1.45	0.48	0.41	0.04	0.91	0.03
Nathaniel Lowe	0.11	0.89	1.44	0.49	0.41	0.03	1.00	0.01
Steven Kwan	0.07	1.01	1.43	0.35	0.63	0.03	0.45	0.09
Petey Halpin	0.12	0.87	1.41	0.43	0.23	0.02	0.72	0.04
Jonathan Aranda	0.13	0.82	1.40	0.44	0.58	0.09	1.22	0.01
Liam Hicks	0.10	0.89	1.37	0.47	0.50	0.11	0.56	0.02
Patrick Bailey	0.11	0.79	1.32	0.52	0.32	0.01	1.04	0.01
Jonny Deluca	0.10	0.82	1.31	0.43	0.21	0.02	0.96	0.13
Travis Bazzana	0.09	0.82	1.29	0.45	0.44	0.06	0.88	–
Brayan Rocchio	0.08	0.79	1.23	0.38	0.23	0.06	0.54	0.07
Chandler Simpson	0.01	0.97	1.21	0.43	0.21	0.01	0.49	0.23
Richie Palacios	0.08	0.72	1.14	0.36	0.47	0.06	0.78	0.12
Taylor Walls	0.05	0.63	0.95	0.32	0.43	0.03	0.93	0.14

	Workload	Results
Freddy Peralta	100%	5.1	22.4	3.87	2.27	4.75	0.26	2.48
Shawn Armstrong	100%	2.7	11.9	2.16	1.27	2.52	0.17	1.30
Cade Smith	33%	1.0	3.9	1.23	0.30	0.73	0.05	0.35
Erik Sabrowski	96%	0.9	4.0	1.21	0.50	0.71	0.07	0.42
Gavin Williams	25%	1.0	4.0	1.06	0.37	0.78	0.05	0.35
Ian Seymour	24%	1.0	4.0	0.99	0.27	0.92	0.03	0.43
Daniel Espino	95%	0.9	4.0	0.93	0.41	0.87	0.03	0.49
Joey Cantillo	59%	1.0	4.3	0.89	0.52	0.87	0.04	0.50
Cam Booser	52%	1.0	4.0	0.88	0.29	0.82	0.03	0.43
Griffin Jax	13%	1.0	4.3	0.87	0.42	1.06	0.04	0.64
Tim Herrin	67%	1.0	4.2	0.86	0.51	0.77	0.08	0.43
Bryan Baker	34%	1.0	4.1	0.86	0.36	0.79	0.04	0.43
Brody Hopkins	60%	0.9	4.2	0.82	0.47	0.96	0.05	0.62
Tyler Wells	17%	1.0	3.9	0.82	0.26	0.80	0.04	0.38
Matt Festa	61%	1.0	4.2	0.82	0.34	0.92	0.05	0.55
Cole Sulser	83%	0.9	3.8	0.76	0.30	0.89	0.02	0.51
Hunter Gaddis	96%	0.9	3.9	0.71	0.36	0.83	0.03	0.45
Slade Cecconi	60%	1.0	4.2	0.68	0.33	0.96	0.03	0.50
Foster Griffin	25%	1.0	4.0	0.67	0.28	0.89	0.04	0.39
Kevin Kelly	74%	0.9	3.7	0.67	0.18	0.84	0.05	0.42
Steven Matz	78%	0.9	3.8	0.61	0.28	0.87	0.03	0.51
Tanner Bibee	23%	0.9	4.1	0.55	0.26	1.04	0.04	0.46

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-4%	-1%	-5%	-1%	+4%
Weather	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Umpire				+1%	0%
Home field (TB batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	CLE	TB	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Confirmed
K%	18.3%	17.3%	22.5%
BB%	8.5%	8.5%	8.1%
HR%	2.7%	2.5%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	S. Armstrong	F. Peralta
K%	22.0%	21.6%	22.5%
BB%	9.3%	8.4%	8.1%
HR%	3.2%	3.3%	3.1%
Innings	3.1	5.5
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	+4%	-2%
BB%	-5%	+2%

HR watch

Junior Caminero0.18 HR
Jo Adell0.15 HR
José Ramírez0.15 HR
Victor Mesa0.13 HR
Jonathan Aranda0.13 HR

Batters

Rank by


CLE @ TB	0.15	1.00	1.66	0.61	0.21	0.09	0.15	1.06
CLE @ TB	0.15	1.07	1.80	0.55	0.48	0.24	0.03	0.52
CLE @ TB	0.18	0.91	1.65	0.64	0.49	0.04	0.02	0.89
CLE @ TB	0.13	0.82	1.40	0.44	0.58	0.01	0.09	1.22
CLE @ TB	0.12	1.09	1.66	0.45	0.43	0.01	0.07	0.79
CLE @ TB	0.13	0.99	1.62	0.59	0.50	–	0.02	0.69
CLE @ TB	0.11	0.89	1.44	0.49	0.41	0.01	0.03	1.00
CLE @ TB	0.13	0.81	1.45	0.48	0.41	0.03	0.04	0.91
CLE @ TB	0.11	0.79	1.32	0.52	0.32	0.01	0.01	1.04
CLE @ TB	0.07	1.01	1.43	0.35	0.63	0.09	0.03	0.45
CLE @ TB	0.09	0.82	1.29	0.45	0.44	–	0.06	0.88
CLE @ TB	0.10	0.89	1.37	0.47	0.50	0.02	0.11	0.56
CLE @ TB	0.10	0.82	1.31	0.43	0.21	0.13	0.02	0.96
CLE @ TB	0.12	0.87	1.41	0.43	0.23	0.04	0.02	0.72
CLE @ TB	0.08	0.72	1.14	0.36	0.47	0.12	0.06	0.78
CLE @ TB	0.01	0.97	1.21	0.43	0.21	0.23	0.01	0.49
CLE @ TB	0.05	0.63	0.95	0.32	0.43	0.14	0.03	0.93
CLE @ TB	0.08	0.79	1.23	0.38	0.23	0.07	0.06	0.54

Pitchers

Rank by


CLE @ TB	100.0%	5.1	3.87	2.27	4.75	0.26	2.48	22.4
CLE @ TB	100.0%	2.7	2.16	1.27	2.52	0.17	1.30	11.9
CLE @ TB	96.1%	0.9	0.71	0.36	0.83	0.03	0.45	3.9
CLE @ TB	95.5%	0.9	1.21	0.50	0.71	0.07	0.42	4.0
CLE @ TB	95.2%	0.9	0.93	0.41	0.87	0.03	0.49	4.0
CLE @ TB	82.9%	0.9	0.76	0.30	0.89	0.02	0.51	3.8
CLE @ TB	78.2%	0.9	0.61	0.28	0.87	0.03	0.51	3.8
CLE @ TB	74.0%	0.9	0.67	0.18	0.84	0.05	0.42	3.7
CLE @ TB	67.1%	1.0	0.86	0.51	0.77	0.08	0.43	4.2
CLE @ TB	61.3%	1.0	0.82	0.34	0.92	0.05	0.55	4.2
CLE @ TB	60.5%	0.9	0.82	0.47	0.96	0.05	0.62	4.2
CLE @ TB	60.1%	1.0	0.68	0.33	0.96	0.03	0.50	4.2
CLE @ TB	58.7%	1.0	0.89	0.52	0.87	0.04	0.50	4.3
CLE @ TB	52.3%	1.0	0.88	0.29	0.82	0.03	0.43	4.0
CLE @ TB	33.6%	1.0	0.86	0.36	0.79	0.04	0.43	4.1
CLE @ TB	33.1%	1.0	1.23	0.30	0.73	0.05	0.35	3.9
CLE @ TB	25.1%	1.0	1.06	0.37	0.78	0.05	0.35	4.0
CLE @ TB	24.6%	1.0	0.67	0.28	0.89	0.04	0.39	4.0
CLE @ TB	23.8%	1.0	0.99	0.27	0.92	0.03	0.43	4.0
CLE @ TB	23.0%	0.9	0.55	0.26	1.04	0.04	0.46	4.1
CLE @ TB	16.8%	1.0	0.82	0.26	0.80	0.04	0.38	3.9
CLE @ TB	13.4%	1.0	0.87	0.42	1.06	0.04	0.64	4.3

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	José Ramírez	CLE @ TB	8.0	1.80	0.55	0.48	0.24	0.03
2	Junior Caminero	CLE @ TB	7.0	1.65	0.64	0.49	0.04	0.02
3	Jo Adell	CLE @ TB	6.8	1.66	0.61	0.21	0.09	0.15
4	Chase Delauter	CLE @ TB	6.7	1.62	0.59	0.50	–	0.02
5	Yandy Díaz	CLE @ TB	6.5	1.66	0.45	0.43	0.01	0.07
6	Steven Kwan	CLE @ TB	6.4	1.43	0.35	0.63	0.09	0.03
7	Jonathan Aranda	CLE @ TB	6.3	1.40	0.44	0.58	0.01	0.09
8	Liam Hicks	CLE @ TB	6.1	1.37	0.47	0.50	0.02	0.11
9	Victor Mesa	CLE @ TB	5.9	1.45	0.48	0.41	0.03	0.04
10	Nathaniel Lowe	CLE @ TB	5.8	1.44	0.49	0.41	0.01	0.03
11	Richie Palacios	CLE @ TB	5.5	1.14	0.36	0.47	0.12	0.06
12	Travis Bazzana	CLE @ TB	5.5	1.29	0.45	0.44	–	0.06
13	Chandler Simpson	CLE @ TB	5.5	1.21	0.43	0.21	0.23	0.01
14	Jonny Deluca	CLE @ TB	5.4	1.31	0.43	0.21	0.13	0.02
15	Patrick Bailey	CLE @ TB	5.4	1.32	0.52	0.32	0.01	0.01
16	Petey Halpin	CLE @ TB	5.3	1.41	0.43	0.23	0.04	0.02
17	Brayan Rocchio	CLE @ TB	5.0	1.23	0.38	0.23	0.07	0.06
18	Taylor Walls	CLE @ TB	4.8	0.95	0.32	0.43	0.14	0.03

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Freddy Peralta	CLE @ TB	10.1	5.14	3.87	2.27	4.75	0.26	2.48
2	Shawn Armstrong	CLE @ TB	5.7	2.74	2.16	1.27	2.52	0.17	1.30
3	Erik Sabrowski	CLE @ TB	3.3	0.92	1.21	0.50	0.71	0.07	0.42
4	Daniel Espino	CLE @ TB	2.3	0.91	0.93	0.41	0.87	0.03	0.49
5	Hunter Gaddis	CLE @ TB	1.8	0.91	0.71	0.36	0.83	0.03	0.45
6	Tim Herrin	CLE @ TB	1.6	0.97	0.86	0.51	0.77	0.08	0.43
7	Cole Sulser	CLE @ TB	1.6	0.89	0.76	0.30	0.89	0.02	0.51
8	Kevin Kelly	CLE @ TB	1.5	0.91	0.67	0.18	0.84	0.05	0.42
9	Cam Booser	CLE @ TB	1.4	0.95	0.88	0.29	0.82	0.03	0.43
10	Cade Smith	CLE @ TB	1.4	0.96	1.23	0.30	0.73	0.05	0.35
11	Joey Cantillo	CLE @ TB	1.3	0.97	0.89	0.52	0.87	0.04	0.50
12	Matt Festa	CLE @ TB	1.2	0.96	0.82	0.34	0.92	0.05	0.55
13	Steven Matz	CLE @ TB	1.2	0.91	0.61	0.28	0.87	0.03	0.51
14	Slade Cecconi	CLE @ TB	1.0	0.97	0.68	0.33	0.96	0.03	0.50
15	Bryan Baker	CLE @ TB	0.9	0.99	0.86	0.36	0.79	0.04	0.43
16	Brody Hopkins	CLE @ TB	0.9	0.92	0.82	0.47	0.96	0.05	0.62
17	Gavin Williams	CLE @ TB	0.9	0.97	1.06	0.37	0.78	0.05	0.35
18	Ian Seymour	CLE @ TB	0.7	0.97	0.99	0.27	0.92	0.03	0.43
19	Foster Griffin	CLE @ TB	0.5	0.96	0.67	0.28	0.89	0.04	0.39
20	Tyler Wells	CLE @ TB	0.5	0.97	0.82	0.26	0.80	0.04	0.38
21	Tanner Bibee	CLE @ TB	0.3	0.94	0.55	0.26	1.04	0.04	0.46
22	Griffin Jax	CLE @ TB	0.2	0.97	0.87	0.42	1.06	0.04	0.64

MLB predictions Mon, Oct 19

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