MLB predictions Sun, Oct 18

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · model went 0–1 · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 8d ago

✗ Favorite lost Final · Sun, Oct 18

Rays

3 45.3% · proj 3.7

Guardians

1 54.7% · proj 4.2

ALCS Game 5 · tied 2-2

ModelMarket

TB -1.5 34.1% 40.7%

CLE win 54.7% 46.5%

Total 7.9 6.0

Our bet CLE +110 ✗ Lost

Set at line CLE 45.5% · model 54.1%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Junior Caminero	0.19	0.96	1.69	0.57	0.43	0.02	0.98	0.04
Yandy Díaz	0.11	1.07	1.60	0.42	0.37	0.04	0.84	0.01
José Ramírez	0.14	0.94	1.56	0.43	0.40	0.02	0.56	0.20
Chase Delauter	0.13	0.99	1.53	0.50	0.32	0.02	0.72	–
Jo Adell	0.15	0.93	1.52	0.54	0.15	0.08	1.00	0.07
Ryan Vilade	0.13	0.88	1.46	0.45	0.39	0.03	1.26	0.02
Nathaniel Lowe	0.12	0.84	1.39	0.47	0.30	0.02	1.01	0.01
Steven Kwan	0.06	1.02	1.37	0.30	0.42	0.02	0.45	0.08
Jonny Deluca	0.09	0.86	1.33	0.41	0.20	0.01	1.01	0.14
Petey Halpin	0.11	0.82	1.32	0.37	0.17	0.03	0.71	0.04
Patrick Bailey	0.11	0.79	1.27	0.37	0.23	0.01	0.93	0.01
Jonathan Aranda	0.10	0.79	1.23	0.38	0.37	0.08	1.48	0.01
Liam Hicks	0.07	0.80	1.17	0.38	0.37	0.07	0.60	0.01
Travis Bazzana	0.09	0.73	1.16	0.34	0.33	0.04	0.84	–
Chandler Simpson	0.01	0.97	1.16	0.35	0.15	0.00	0.48	0.22
Ben Williamson	0.06	0.81	1.12	0.33	0.25	0.03	0.90	0.04
Brayan Rocchio	0.07	0.73	1.11	0.32	0.18	0.05	0.53	0.06
Taylor Walls	0.05	0.62	0.92	0.28	0.34	0.01	1.10	0.13

	Workload	Results
Parker Messick	100%	5.7	23.1	5.3	1.48	4.80	0.14	1.95
Drew Rasmussen	100%	5.5	22.7	4.4	1.43	4.97	0.20	2.09
Cade Smith	37%	1.0	4.1	1.3	0.28	0.89	0.03	0.45
Gavin Williams	8%	1.0	4.0	1.3	0.31	0.81	0.05	0.40
Erik Sabrowski	76%	0.9	3.9	1.2	0.55	0.73	0.03	0.47
Daniel Espino	29%	0.9	4.1	1.2	0.41	0.88	0.02	0.48
Freddy Peralta	4%	0.9	4.1	0.9	0.23	0.97	0.08	0.46
Matt Festa	28%	0.9	4.2	0.8	0.34	1.01	0.07	0.57
Ian Seymour	16%	0.9	3.7	0.8	0.33	0.74	0.01	0.31
Joey Cantillo	9%	0.9	4.2	0.8	0.40	1.03	0.02	0.52
Tim Herrin	59%	0.9	4.2	0.8	0.50	0.90	0.09	0.54
Brody Hopkins	36%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.47	0.92	0.03	0.59
Bryan Baker	31%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.39	0.85	0.03	0.46
Cam Booser	29%	0.9	3.8	0.8	0.28	0.78	0.03	0.37
Griffin Jax	10%	0.9	3.9	0.8	0.34	0.90	0.02	0.49
Shawn Armstrong	26%	0.9	4.1	0.8	0.49	0.91	0.05	0.56
Foster Griffin	4%	0.9	4.2	0.8	0.25	1.10	0.03	0.60
Hunter Gaddis	80%	0.8	3.5	0.7	0.28	0.72	0.04	0.39
Tyler Wells	65%	0.9	3.7	0.7	0.29	0.73	0.03	0.42
Slade Cecconi	25%	0.9	4.0	0.7	0.32	0.95	0.01	0.52
Cole Sulser	74%	0.9	3.7	0.7	0.36	0.81	0.02	0.49
Kevin Kelly	28%	0.9	3.7	0.7	0.22	0.77	0.02	0.41
Tanner Bibee	8%	0.9	3.9	0.7	0.16	0.85	0.06	0.32
Steven Matz	73%	0.9	3.8	0.5	0.28	0.95	0.02	0.56

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	0%	+1%	-2%	+3%	+5%
Weather	-2%	-3%	-4%	+3%	+1%
Umpire				+1%	0%
Home field (CLE batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	TB	CLE	League
Hitters
Lineup	Confirmed	Confirmed
K%	17.9%	18.3%	22.5%
BB%	8.0%	8.5%	8.1%
HR%	2.4%	2.7%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	D. Rasmussen	P. Messick
K%	24.4%	25.2%	22.5%
BB%	5.0%	6.1%	8.1%
HR%	3.0%	3.1%	3.1%
Innings	5.6	6.0
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	-2%	+4%
BB%	+2%	-5%

HR watch

Junior Caminero0.19 HR
Jo Adell0.15 HR
José Ramírez0.14 HR
Ryan Vilade0.13 HR
Chase Delauter0.13 HR

Batters

Rank by


TB @ CLE	0.19	0.96	1.69	0.57	0.43	0.04	0.02	0.98
TB @ CLE	0.13	0.88	1.46	0.45	0.39	0.02	0.03	1.26
TB @ CLE	0.11	1.07	1.60	0.42	0.37	0.01	0.04	0.84
TB @ CLE	0.15	0.93	1.52	0.54	0.15	0.07	0.08	1.00
TB @ CLE	0.10	0.79	1.23	0.38	0.37	0.01	0.08	1.48
TB @ CLE	0.14	0.94	1.56	0.43	0.40	0.20	0.02	0.56
TB @ CLE	0.13	0.99	1.53	0.50	0.32	–	0.02	0.72
TB @ CLE	0.12	0.84	1.39	0.47	0.30	0.01	0.02	1.01
TB @ CLE	0.09	0.86	1.33	0.41	0.20	0.14	0.01	1.01
TB @ CLE	0.11	0.79	1.27	0.37	0.23	0.01	0.01	0.93
TB @ CLE	0.06	1.02	1.37	0.30	0.42	0.08	0.02	0.45
TB @ CLE	0.11	0.82	1.32	0.37	0.17	0.04	0.03	0.71
TB @ CLE	0.06	0.81	1.12	0.33	0.25	0.04	0.03	0.90
TB @ CLE	0.09	0.73	1.16	0.34	0.33	–	0.04	0.84
TB @ CLE	0.07	0.80	1.17	0.38	0.37	0.01	0.07	0.60
TB @ CLE	0.05	0.62	0.92	0.28	0.34	0.13	0.01	1.10
TB @ CLE	0.01	0.97	1.16	0.35	0.15	0.22	0.00	0.48
TB @ CLE	0.07	0.73	1.11	0.32	0.18	0.06	0.05	0.53

Pitchers

Rank by


TB @ CLE	100.0%	5.7	5.3	1.48	4.80	0.14	1.95	23.1
TB @ CLE	100.0%	5.5	4.4	1.43	4.97	0.20	2.09	22.7
TB @ CLE	80.5%	0.8	0.7	0.28	0.72	0.04	0.39	3.5
TB @ CLE	76.5%	0.9	1.2	0.55	0.73	0.03	0.47	3.9
TB @ CLE	74.5%	0.9	0.7	0.36	0.81	0.02	0.49	3.7
TB @ CLE	72.6%	0.9	0.5	0.28	0.95	0.02	0.56	3.8
TB @ CLE	64.9%	0.9	0.7	0.29	0.73	0.03	0.42	3.7
TB @ CLE	58.6%	0.9	0.8	0.50	0.90	0.09	0.54	4.2
TB @ CLE	37.1%	1.0	1.3	0.28	0.89	0.03	0.45	4.1
TB @ CLE	35.7%	0.9	0.8	0.47	0.92	0.03	0.59	4.0
TB @ CLE	31.2%	0.9	0.8	0.39	0.85	0.03	0.46	4.0
TB @ CLE	29.4%	0.9	1.2	0.41	0.88	0.02	0.48	4.1
TB @ CLE	29.3%	0.9	0.8	0.28	0.78	0.03	0.37	3.8
TB @ CLE	28.3%	0.9	0.7	0.22	0.77	0.02	0.41	3.7
TB @ CLE	28.2%	0.9	0.8	0.34	1.01	0.07	0.57	4.2
TB @ CLE	25.5%	0.9	0.8	0.49	0.91	0.05	0.56	4.1
TB @ CLE	24.9%	0.9	0.7	0.32	0.95	0.01	0.52	4.0
TB @ CLE	16.5%	0.9	0.8	0.33	0.74	0.01	0.31	3.7
TB @ CLE	10.5%	0.9	0.8	0.34	0.90	0.02	0.49	3.9
TB @ CLE	8.9%	0.9	0.8	0.40	1.03	0.02	0.52	4.2
TB @ CLE	8.5%	0.9	0.7	0.16	0.85	0.06	0.32	3.9
TB @ CLE	8.1%	1.0	1.3	0.31	0.81	0.05	0.40	4.0
TB @ CLE	4.0%	0.9	0.8	0.25	1.10	0.03	0.60	4.2
TB @ CLE	3.9%	0.9	0.9	0.23	0.97	0.08	0.46	4.1

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Junior Caminero	TB @ CLE	6.8	1.69	0.57	0.43	0.04	0.02
2	José Ramírez	TB @ CLE	6.8	1.56	0.43	0.40	0.20	0.02
3	Yandy Díaz	TB @ CLE	6.0	1.60	0.42	0.37	0.01	0.04
4	Jo Adell	TB @ CLE	5.9	1.52	0.54	0.15	0.07	0.08
5	Ryan Vilade	TB @ CLE	5.8	1.46	0.45	0.39	0.02	0.03
6	Chase Delauter	TB @ CLE	5.8	1.53	0.50	0.32	–	0.02
7	Steven Kwan	TB @ CLE	5.6	1.37	0.30	0.42	0.08	0.02
8	Jonny Deluca	TB @ CLE	5.4	1.33	0.41	0.20	0.14	0.01
9	Nathaniel Lowe	TB @ CLE	5.4	1.39	0.47	0.30	0.01	0.02
10	Jonathan Aranda	TB @ CLE	5.1	1.23	0.38	0.37	0.01	0.08
11	Liam Hicks	TB @ CLE	5.0	1.17	0.38	0.37	0.01	0.07
12	Chandler Simpson	TB @ CLE	5.0	1.16	0.35	0.15	0.22	0.00
13	Petey Halpin	TB @ CLE	4.8	1.32	0.37	0.17	0.04	0.03
14	Patrick Bailey	TB @ CLE	4.7	1.27	0.37	0.23	0.01	0.01
15	Travis Bazzana	TB @ CLE	4.6	1.16	0.34	0.33	–	0.04
16	Ben Williamson	TB @ CLE	4.4	1.12	0.33	0.25	0.04	0.03
17	Taylor Walls	TB @ CLE	4.4	0.92	0.28	0.34	0.13	0.01
18	Brayan Rocchio	TB @ CLE	4.4	1.11	0.32	0.18	0.06	0.05

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Parker Messick	TB @ CLE	18.8	5.70	5.31	1.48	4.80	0.14	1.95
2	Drew Rasmussen	TB @ CLE	14.7	5.47	4.38	1.43	4.97	0.20	2.09
3	Erik Sabrowski	TB @ CLE	2.4	0.89	1.20	0.55	0.73	0.03	0.47
4	Hunter Gaddis	TB @ CLE	1.8	0.85	0.74	0.28	0.72	0.04	0.39
5	Tyler Wells	TB @ CLE	1.5	0.90	0.73	0.29	0.73	0.03	0.42
6	Cade Smith	TB @ CLE	1.4	0.98	1.29	0.28	0.89	0.03	0.45
7	Cole Sulser	TB @ CLE	1.3	0.88	0.70	0.36	0.81	0.02	0.49
8	Tim Herrin	TB @ CLE	1.0	0.95	0.82	0.50	0.90	0.09	0.54
9	Daniel Espino	TB @ CLE	0.9	0.94	1.17	0.41	0.88	0.02	0.48
10	Cam Booser	TB @ CLE	0.8	0.92	0.78	0.28	0.78	0.03	0.37
11	Steven Matz	TB @ CLE	0.7	0.88	0.53	0.28	0.95	0.02	0.56
12	Bryan Baker	TB @ CLE	0.7	0.95	0.78	0.39	0.85	0.03	0.46
13	Kevin Kelly	TB @ CLE	0.6	0.91	0.70	0.22	0.77	0.02	0.41
14	Brody Hopkins	TB @ CLE	0.5	0.90	0.82	0.47	0.92	0.03	0.59
15	Matt Festa	TB @ CLE	0.5	0.94	0.84	0.34	1.01	0.07	0.57
16	Ian Seymour	TB @ CLE	0.5	0.91	0.84	0.33	0.74	0.01	0.31
17	Slade Cecconi	TB @ CLE	0.4	0.93	0.71	0.32	0.95	0.01	0.52
18	Shawn Armstrong	TB @ CLE	0.4	0.93	0.78	0.49	0.91	0.05	0.56
19	Gavin Williams	TB @ CLE	0.3	0.95	1.28	0.31	0.81	0.05	0.40
20	Tanner Bibee	TB @ CLE	0.2	0.95	0.69	0.16	0.85	0.06	0.32
21	Griffin Jax	TB @ CLE	0.2	0.88	0.78	0.34	0.90	0.02	0.49
22	Joey Cantillo	TB @ CLE	0.2	0.94	0.83	0.40	1.03	0.02	0.52
23	Freddy Peralta	TB @ CLE	0.1	0.94	0.92	0.23	0.97	0.08	0.46
24	Foster Griffin	TB @ CLE	0.1	0.94	0.78	0.25	1.10	0.03	0.60

MLB predictions Sun, Oct 18

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