MLB predictions Sat, Oct 17

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · model went 0–1 · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 9d ago

✗ Favorite lost Final · Sat, Oct 17

Rays

7 42.5% · proj 3.8

Guardians

3 57.5% · proj 4.6

ALCS Game 4 · CLE leads 2-1

ModelMarket

TB -1.5 32.0% 37.0%

CLE win 57.5% 49.4%

Total 8.4 6.5

Our bet CLE -106 ✗ Lost

Set at line CLE 49.1% · model 55.5%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
José Ramírez	0.16	1.07	1.82	0.52	0.35	0.01	0.42	0.21
Chase Delauter	0.14	1.12	1.80	0.60	0.31	0.01	0.53	–
Jo Adell	0.18	0.99	1.74	0.65	0.16	0.07	0.81	0.07
Yandy Díaz	0.13	1.11	1.70	0.44	0.40	0.06	0.80	0.01
Junior Caminero	0.17	0.93	1.63	0.54	0.47	0.03	1.04	0.04
Nathaniel Lowe	0.12	0.89	1.49	0.51	0.29	0.02	0.80	0.01
Steven Kwan	0.06	1.06	1.48	0.34	0.39	0.02	0.38	0.08
Jonathan Aranda	0.14	0.85	1.45	0.45	0.54	0.08	1.34	0.01
Ryan Vilade	0.12	0.86	1.39	0.52	0.39	0.06	1.20	0.02
Patrick Bailey	0.12	0.81	1.37	0.43	0.22	0.01	0.81	0.01
Travis Bazzana	0.11	0.84	1.37	0.42	0.29	0.03	0.71	–
Nick Fortes	0.08	0.91	1.36	0.37	0.15	0.08	0.67	0.02
Jonny Deluca	0.09	0.85	1.34	0.43	0.24	0.02	1.08	0.14
Petey Halpin	0.09	0.86	1.32	0.41	0.15	0.02	0.57	0.04
Brayan Rocchio	0.09	0.82	1.27	0.35	0.14	0.05	0.42	0.06
Chandler Simpson	0.02	0.96	1.19	0.32	0.20	0.00	0.47	0.22
Jorge Mateo	0.08	0.70	1.11	0.37	0.19	0.01	1.32	0.17
Taylor Walls	0.05	0.65	0.94	0.27	0.43	0.02	1.04	0.14

	Workload	Results
Nick Martínez	100%	5.5	23.1	2.93	1.21	5.7	0.14	2.73
Shawn Armstrong	100%	2.9	12.1	2.81	1.00	2.5	0.13	1.06
Cade Smith	38%	1.0	4.0	1.45	0.24	0.8	0.03	0.34
Erik Sabrowski	70%	1.0	4.1	1.31	0.47	0.8	0.03	0.42
Gavin Williams	14%	1.0	3.8	1.30	0.23	0.7	0.06	0.32
Daniel Espino	55%	1.0	4.1	1.12	0.29	0.9	0.03	0.40
Joey Cantillo	63%	1.0	4.1	1.04	0.42	0.8	0.03	0.44
Ian Seymour	38%	0.9	3.8	1.01	0.32	0.8	0.02	0.39
Matt Festa	94%	1.0	4.0	0.98	0.27	0.9	0.05	0.47
Foster Griffin	21%	1.0	4.0	0.93	0.26	0.9	0.03	0.32
Tim Herrin	98%	0.9	3.8	0.89	0.42	0.8	0.05	0.44
Bryan Baker	29%	0.9	4.0	0.83	0.47	0.8	0.02	0.36
Hunter Gaddis	96%	0.9	3.8	0.82	0.26	0.8	0.04	0.42
Brody Hopkins	36%	0.9	4.2	0.82	0.47	1.0	0.03	0.62
Tyler Wells	14%	0.9	4.0	0.81	0.39	0.9	0.04	0.52
Tanner Bibee	21%	1.0	4.1	0.80	0.24	0.9	0.04	0.40
Cam Booser	83%	0.9	3.7	0.79	0.34	0.8	0.03	0.50
Slade Cecconi	69%	1.0	4.2	0.78	0.27	1.0	0.02	0.55
Cole Sulser	53%	0.9	4.0	0.76	0.37	0.9	0.03	0.49
Griffin Jax	5%	0.9	4.1	0.74	0.43	1.1	0.04	0.62
Kevin Kelly	81%	0.8	3.5	0.65	0.21	0.8	0.03	0.43
Austin Hedges	20%	1.0	4.1	0.64	0.23	1.0	0.03	0.48
Steven Matz	20%	0.9	4.0	0.59	0.33	1.0	0.04	0.53

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	0%	+1%	-2%	+3%	+5%
Weather	0%	0%	-4%	+2%	0%
Umpire				-2%	+1%
Home field (CLE batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	TB	CLE	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Confirmed
K%	19.5%	18.3%	22.5%
BB%	7.1%	8.5%	8.1%
HR%	2.4%	2.7%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	N. Martínez	S. Armstrong
K%	15.4%	22.0%	22.5%
BB%	4.0%	9.3%	8.1%
HR%	4.0%	3.2%	3.1%
Innings	6.0	3.1
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	-2%	+4%
BB%	+2%	-5%

HR watch

Jo Adell0.18 HR
Junior Caminero0.17 HR
José Ramírez0.16 HR
Chase Delauter0.14 HR
Jonathan Aranda0.14 HR

Batters

Rank by


TB @ CLE	0.14	0.85	1.45	0.45	0.54	0.01	0.08	1.34
TB @ CLE	0.17	0.93	1.63	0.54	0.47	0.04	0.03	1.04
TB @ CLE	0.18	0.99	1.74	0.65	0.16	0.07	0.07	0.81
TB @ CLE	0.13	1.11	1.70	0.44	0.40	0.01	0.06	0.80
TB @ CLE	0.16	1.07	1.82	0.52	0.35	0.21	0.01	0.42
TB @ CLE	0.12	0.86	1.39	0.52	0.39	0.02	0.06	1.20
TB @ CLE	0.14	1.12	1.80	0.60	0.31	–	0.01	0.53
TB @ CLE	0.09	0.85	1.34	0.43	0.24	0.14	0.02	1.08
TB @ CLE	0.12	0.89	1.49	0.51	0.29	0.01	0.02	0.80
TB @ CLE	0.08	0.70	1.11	0.37	0.19	0.17	0.01	1.32
TB @ CLE	0.06	1.06	1.48	0.34	0.39	0.08	0.02	0.38
TB @ CLE	0.12	0.81	1.37	0.43	0.22	0.01	0.01	0.81
TB @ CLE	0.11	0.84	1.37	0.42	0.29	–	0.03	0.71
TB @ CLE	0.08	0.91	1.36	0.37	0.15	0.02	0.08	0.67
TB @ CLE	0.05	0.65	0.94	0.27	0.43	0.14	0.02	1.04
TB @ CLE	0.09	0.86	1.32	0.41	0.15	0.04	0.02	0.57
TB @ CLE	0.02	0.96	1.19	0.32	0.20	0.22	0.00	0.47
TB @ CLE	0.09	0.82	1.27	0.35	0.14	0.06	0.05	0.42

Pitchers

Rank by


TB @ CLE	100.0%	5.5	2.93	1.21	5.7	0.14	2.73	23.1
TB @ CLE	100.0%	2.9	2.81	1.00	2.5	0.13	1.06	12.1
TB @ CLE	97.5%	0.9	0.89	0.42	0.8	0.05	0.44	3.8
TB @ CLE	96.1%	0.9	0.82	0.26	0.8	0.04	0.42	3.8
TB @ CLE	94.2%	1.0	0.98	0.27	0.9	0.05	0.47	4.0
TB @ CLE	82.9%	0.9	0.79	0.34	0.8	0.03	0.50	3.7
TB @ CLE	81.4%	0.8	0.65	0.21	0.8	0.03	0.43	3.5
TB @ CLE	70.5%	1.0	1.31	0.47	0.8	0.03	0.42	4.1
TB @ CLE	69.3%	1.0	0.78	0.27	1.0	0.02	0.55	4.2
TB @ CLE	63.1%	1.0	1.04	0.42	0.8	0.03	0.44	4.1
TB @ CLE	55.4%	1.0	1.12	0.29	0.9	0.03	0.40	4.1
TB @ CLE	52.9%	0.9	0.76	0.37	0.9	0.03	0.49	4.0
TB @ CLE	37.9%	0.9	1.01	0.32	0.8	0.02	0.39	3.8
TB @ CLE	37.6%	1.0	1.45	0.24	0.8	0.03	0.34	4.0
TB @ CLE	35.5%	0.9	0.82	0.47	1.0	0.03	0.62	4.2
TB @ CLE	28.7%	0.9	0.83	0.47	0.8	0.02	0.36	4.0
TB @ CLE	21.4%	1.0	0.80	0.24	0.9	0.04	0.40	4.1
TB @ CLE	20.6%	1.0	0.93	0.26	0.9	0.03	0.32	4.0
TB @ CLE	19.9%	1.0	0.64	0.23	1.0	0.03	0.48	4.1
TB @ CLE	19.5%	0.9	0.59	0.33	1.0	0.04	0.53	4.0
TB @ CLE	13.9%	0.9	0.81	0.39	0.9	0.04	0.52	4.0
TB @ CLE	13.7%	1.0	1.30	0.23	0.7	0.06	0.32	3.8
TB @ CLE	5.3%	0.9	0.74	0.43	1.1	0.04	0.62	4.1

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	José Ramírez	TB @ CLE	7.6	1.82	0.52	0.35	0.21	0.01
2	Junior Caminero	TB @ CLE	6.7	1.63	0.54	0.47	0.04	0.03
3	Chase Delauter	TB @ CLE	6.7	1.80	0.60	0.31	–	0.01
4	Jo Adell	TB @ CLE	6.6	1.74	0.65	0.16	0.07	0.07
5	Yandy Díaz	TB @ CLE	6.5	1.70	0.44	0.40	0.01	0.06
6	Jonathan Aranda	TB @ CLE	6.3	1.45	0.45	0.54	0.01	0.08
7	Steven Kwan	TB @ CLE	5.9	1.48	0.34	0.39	0.08	0.02
8	Ryan Vilade	TB @ CLE	5.9	1.39	0.52	0.39	0.02	0.06
9	Nathaniel Lowe	TB @ CLE	5.6	1.49	0.51	0.29	0.01	0.02
10	Jonny Deluca	TB @ CLE	5.6	1.34	0.43	0.24	0.14	0.02
11	Chandler Simpson	TB @ CLE	5.2	1.19	0.32	0.20	0.22	0.00
12	Travis Bazzana	TB @ CLE	5.2	1.37	0.42	0.29	–	0.03
13	Patrick Bailey	TB @ CLE	5.0	1.37	0.43	0.22	0.01	0.01
14	Nick Fortes	TB @ CLE	4.9	1.36	0.37	0.15	0.02	0.08
15	Jorge Mateo	TB @ CLE	4.9	1.11	0.37	0.19	0.17	0.01
16	Petey Halpin	TB @ CLE	4.8	1.32	0.41	0.15	0.04	0.02
17	Brayan Rocchio	TB @ CLE	4.7	1.27	0.35	0.14	0.06	0.05
18	Taylor Walls	TB @ CLE	4.7	0.94	0.27	0.43	0.14	0.02

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Shawn Armstrong	TB @ CLE	9.3	2.91	2.81	1.00	2.46	0.13	1.06
2	Nick Martínez	TB @ CLE	7.9	5.48	2.93	1.21	5.72	0.14	2.73
3	Erik Sabrowski	TB @ CLE	2.8	0.96	1.31	0.47	0.76	0.03	0.42
4	Matt Festa	TB @ CLE	2.6	0.95	0.98	0.27	0.89	0.05	0.47
5	Hunter Gaddis	TB @ CLE	2.4	0.92	0.82	0.26	0.79	0.04	0.42
6	Tim Herrin	TB @ CLE	2.3	0.90	0.89	0.42	0.80	0.05	0.44
7	Daniel Espino	TB @ CLE	1.9	0.98	1.12	0.29	0.92	0.03	0.40
8	Joey Cantillo	TB @ CLE	1.9	0.97	1.04	0.42	0.84	0.03	0.44
9	Cade Smith	TB @ CLE	1.8	1.00	1.45	0.24	0.81	0.03	0.34
10	Cam Booser	TB @ CLE	1.6	0.86	0.79	0.34	0.78	0.03	0.50
11	Kevin Kelly	TB @ CLE	1.5	0.85	0.65	0.21	0.78	0.03	0.43
12	Slade Cecconi	TB @ CLE	1.3	0.97	0.78	0.27	1.03	0.02	0.55
13	Ian Seymour	TB @ CLE	1.2	0.92	1.01	0.32	0.77	0.02	0.39
14	Cole Sulser	TB @ CLE	1.0	0.93	0.76	0.37	0.93	0.03	0.49
15	Bryan Baker	TB @ CLE	0.7	0.94	0.83	0.47	0.77	0.02	0.36
16	Foster Griffin	TB @ CLE	0.7	0.98	0.93	0.26	0.86	0.03	0.32
17	Gavin Williams	TB @ CLE	0.6	0.98	1.30	0.23	0.66	0.06	0.32
18	Tanner Bibee	TB @ CLE	0.5	0.98	0.80	0.24	0.95	0.04	0.40
19	Brody Hopkins	TB @ CLE	0.5	0.91	0.82	0.47	1.04	0.03	0.62
20	Austin Hedges	TB @ CLE	0.4	0.98	0.64	0.23	0.99	0.03	0.48
21	Tyler Wells	TB @ CLE	0.3	0.92	0.81	0.39	0.89	0.04	0.52
22	Steven Matz	TB @ CLE	0.2	0.93	0.59	0.33	0.95	0.04	0.53
23	Griffin Jax	TB @ CLE	0.1	0.88	0.74	0.43	1.06	0.04	0.62

MLB predictions Sat, Oct 17

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