MLB predictions Thu, Oct 15
Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →
2 games on this slate · model went 1–1 · 31–20 last 30 days →
Games
Set at line CLE 53.4% · model 59.5%
Set at line LAD 58.4% · model 61.7%
Player props
Batters
| Hitting | Discipline | Running | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
José Ramírez
|
0.15 | 1.10 | 1.80 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 0.60 | 0.25 |
Chase Delauter
|
0.11 | 1.02 | 1.61 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.02 | 0.78 | – |
Yandy Díaz
|
0.11 | 1.11 | 1.60 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.07 | 1.04 | 0.01 |
Junior Caminero
|
0.17 | 0.90 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.03 | 1.28 | 0.04 |
Jo Adell
|
0.14 | 0.97 | 1.59 | 0.63 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 1.10 | 0.08 |
Nathaniel Lowe
|
0.11 | 0.88 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.02 | 1.08 | 0.01 |
Victor Mesa
|
0.12 | 0.82 | 1.38 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 1.27 | 0.03 |
Jonathan Aranda
|
0.14 | 0.80 | 1.37 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 1.62 | 0.01 |
Steven Kwan
|
0.04 | 1.04 | 1.36 | 0.33 | 0.66 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 0.09 |
Petey Halpin
|
0.10 | 0.84 | 1.35 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.78 | 0.04 |
Patrick Bailey
|
0.12 | 0.79 | 1.35 | 0.47 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 1.06 | 0.01 |
Liam Hicks
|
0.11 | 0.85 | 1.34 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.07 | 0.75 | 0.02 |
Travis Bazzana
|
0.09 | 0.81 | 1.26 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.91 | – |
Brayan Rocchio
|
0.07 | 0.81 | 1.19 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.60 | 0.07 |
Chandler Simpson
|
0.01 | 0.94 | 1.16 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.61 | 0.22 |
Jonny Deluca
|
0.07 | 0.75 | 1.13 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 1.26 | 0.13 |
Richie Palacios
|
0.07 | 0.67 | 1.05 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 0.97 | 0.11 |
Taylor Walls
|
0.05 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 1.19 | 0.13 |
Pitchers
| Workload | Results | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
Gavin Williams
|
100% | 5.5 | 22.7 | 6.6 | 2.11 | 4.40 | 0.17 | 2.02 |
Griffin Jax
|
100% | 4.1 | 18.0 | 3.8 | 1.77 | 4.23 | 0.13 | 2.06 |
Cade Smith
|
37% | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.31 | 0.81 | 0.05 | 0.37 |
Erik Sabrowski
|
76% | 0.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
Daniel Espino
|
34% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
Ian Seymour
|
38% | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.34 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.42 |
Matt Festa
|
68% | 0.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.35 | 0.93 | 0.05 | 0.54 |
Joey Cantillo
|
28% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.40 | 0.84 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
Tim Herrin
|
32% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.07 | 0.43 |
Bryan Baker
|
29% | 1.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 0.03 | 0.48 |
Foster Griffin
|
6% | 1.0 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.36 | 1.02 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
Brody Hopkins
|
52% | 0.9 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.56 | 1.02 | 0.06 | 0.70 |
Cam Booser
|
89% | 0.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.30 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
Tyler Wells
|
51% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.34 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
Cole Sulser
|
86% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.30 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
Shawn Armstrong
|
19% | 0.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.42 | 0.93 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
Kevin Kelly
|
58% | 0.9 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
Hunter Gaddis
|
81% | 0.9 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.32 | 0.80 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
Tanner Bibee
|
6% | 1.0 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.17 | 0.86 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
Slade Cecconi
|
13% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.29 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
Austin Hedges
|
7% | 1.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.65 |
Steven Matz
|
86% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.03 | 0.57 |
No MLB props for this team at this position.
Pitching lines assume the pitcher appears; App is the chance of appearing. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Game conditions
| 1B | 2B | HR | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park | 0% | +1% | -2% | +3% | +5% |
| Weather | 0% | 0% | -4% | +2% | 0% |
| Umpire | -2% | +1% | |||
| Home field (CLE batting) | 0% | +3% | +4% | +4% | -4% |
How much each one raises or lowers that outcome. 0% is no change; blank means the model doesn't adjust that outcome for it.
Matchup
TB |
CLE |
League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitters | |||
| Lineup | Confirmed | Confirmed | |
| K% | 17.3% | 18.3% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% |
| HR% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Starting pitcher | |||
| Starter | G. Jax | G. Williams | |
| K% | 25.8% | 32.0% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| HR% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Innings | 4.6 | 5.9 | |
| Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters | |||
| K% | -2% | +4% | |
| BB% | +2% | -5% | |
Each team's own rates per plate appearance against an average opponent; the simulation combines the two sides. Innings is how long the starter is expected to last. League is the 2023-25 average.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Rays 2, Guardians 3
- Result
- CLE won by 1
- Why
- Model 59.5%, first price 53.4%
- Final
- Rays 2, Guardians 3
- Result
- CLE won by 1, needed to win by 2+
- Why
- Model 40.5% to cover, first line 34.6%: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- 40.5%
- First line
- 35.4%
- Latest
- 35.4%
Chance to cover. CLE -1.5 +170 / TB +1.5 -208 (vig removed)
- Model
- 59.5%
- First line
- 54.3%
- Latest
- 54.3%
Moneyline CLE -132 / TB +109 (vig removed)
- Model
- 8.4
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -122 / Under +101
- First line
- DraftKings · Wed 10:45 AM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Wed 10:45 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Batters
| Hitting | Discipline | Running | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
Mookie Betts
|
0.20 | 1.08 | 1.91 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.52 | 0.06 |
Will Smith
|
0.20 | 0.98 | 1.75 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.05 | 0.71 | 0.02 |
Shohei Ohtani
|
0.19 | 0.86 | 1.62 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.05 | 1.10 | 0.13 |
Jake Bauers
|
0.21 | 0.73 | 1.52 | 0.50 | 0.74 | 0.03 | 1.53 | 0.11 |
William Contreras
|
0.14 | 0.90 | 1.51 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.02 | 0.90 | 0.03 |
Andy Pages
|
0.14 | 0.91 | 1.51 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.78 | 0.06 |
Jackson Chourio
|
0.16 | 0.85 | 1.51 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 1.45 | 0.10 |
Freddie Freeman
|
0.11 | 0.99 | 1.51 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.86 | 0.05 |
Teoscar Hernández
|
0.15 | 0.88 | 1.49 | 0.54 | 0.37 | 0.03 | 1.15 | 0.04 |
Max Muncy
|
0.17 | 0.69 | 1.34 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 1.04 | 0.02 |
Christian Yelich
|
0.14 | 0.72 | 1.29 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.02 | 1.34 | 0.09 |
Garrett Mitchell
|
0.13 | 0.70 | 1.27 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.03 | 1.64 | 0.15 |
Kyle Tucker
|
0.11 | 0.76 | 1.25 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 0.59 | 0.11 |
Cooper Pratt
|
0.09 | 0.78 | 1.21 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.03 | 1.00 | – |
Enrique Hernández
|
0.11 | 0.72 | 1.19 | 0.46 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.89 | 0.01 |
Brice Turang
|
0.11 | 0.68 | 1.18 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.02 | 1.50 | 0.15 |
Luis Lara
|
0.09 | 0.73 | 1.16 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 1.06 | – |
Joey Ortiz
|
0.07 | 0.68 | 1.05 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.89 | 0.07 |
Pitchers
| Workload | Results | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
Tyler Glasnow
|
100% | 5.6 | 23.2 | 7.4 | 2.54 | 4.12 | 0.08 | 2.19 |
Shane Drohan
|
100% | 4.8 | 20.8 | 4.3 | 2.15 | 4.61 | 0.19 | 2.46 |
Edwin Díaz
|
48% | 0.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.50 | 0.87 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
Tanner Scott
|
36% | 1.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.32 | 0.71 | 0.01 | 0.30 |
Alex Vesia
|
88% | 0.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
Evan Phillips
|
17% | 1.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.19 | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.31 |
Kyle Harrison
|
21% | 0.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.41 | 0.94 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
Edgardo Henriquez
|
50% | 0.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.51 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
Kris Bubic
|
43% | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.47 | 0.78 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
Trevor Megill
|
28% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.30 | 0.82 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
Brock Stewart
|
85% | 0.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.45 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
Aaron Ashby
|
78% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.47 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
Dustin May
|
8% | 0.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.41 | 0.95 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
Roki Sasaki
|
10% | 1.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 0.01 | 0.79 |
Abner Uribe
|
37% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.39 | 0.77 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
Justin Wrobleski
|
10% | 1.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
Dl Hall
|
34% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
Jojo Romero
|
77% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.40 | 0.82 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
Chad Patrick
|
50% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
Andrew Vaughn
|
10% | 0.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.41 | 0.72 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
Antonio Senzatela
|
77% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
Enrique Hernández
|
6% | 1.0 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
No MLB props for this team at this position.
Pitching lines assume the pitcher appears; App is the chance of appearing. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Game conditions
| 1B | 2B | HR | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park | -3% | -7% | +18% | -1% | -3% |
| Umpire | 0% | 0% | |||
| Home field (LAD batting) | 0% | +3% | +4% | +4% | -4% |
How much each one raises or lowers that outcome. 0% is no change; blank means the model doesn't adjust that outcome for it.
Matchup
MIL |
LAD |
League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitters | |||
| Lineup | Projected | Projected | |
| K% | 22.4% | 21.1% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% |
| HR% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| Starting pitcher | |||
| Starter | S. Drohan | T. Glasnow | |
| K% | 22.4% | 33.3% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% |
| HR% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Innings | 5.3 | 5.8 | |
| Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters | |||
| K% | +2% | -2% | |
| BB% | -2% | +3% | |
Each team's own rates per plate appearance against an average opponent; the simulation combines the two sides. Innings is how long the starter is expected to last. League is the 2023-25 average.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Brewers 6, Dodgers 4
- Result
- LAD lost by 2
- Why
- Model 61.7%, first price 58.4%
- Final
- Brewers 6, Dodgers 4
- Result
- LAD lost by 2, needed to win by 2+
- Why
- Model 42.0% to cover, first line 40.1%: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- 39.6%
- First line
- 40.1%
- Latest
- 40.1%
Chance to cover. LAD -1.5 +138 / MIL +1.5 -168 (vig removed)
- Model
- 58.1%
- First line
- 58.4%
- Latest
- 58.6%
Moneyline LAD -151 / MIL +135 (vig removed) · opened 58.4%
- Model
- 8.6
- First line
- 7.5
- Latest
- 8.0
Over -105 / Under -115 · opened 7.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 58.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Thu 10:46 AM ET
- Latest
- Closing line · DraftKings · Thu 7:44 PM ET · spread from Thu 10:46 AM
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Players
HR watch
- Jake Bauers0.21 HR
- Mookie Betts0.20 HR
- Will Smith0.20 HR
- Shohei Ohtani0.19 HR
- Max Muncy0.17 HR
Batters
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.21 | 0.73 | 1.52 | 0.50 | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 1.53 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.19 | 0.86 | 1.62 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 1.10 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.17 | 0.90 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1.28 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.15 | 1.10 | 1.80 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.60 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.14 | 0.80 | 1.37 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 1.62 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.20 | 0.98 | 1.75 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.71 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.16 | 0.85 | 1.51 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 1.45 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.13 | 0.70 | 1.27 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 1.64 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.14 | 0.97 | 1.59 | 0.63 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1.10 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.20 | 1.08 | 1.91 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.11 | 1.11 | 1.60 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 1.04 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.15 | 0.88 | 1.49 | 0.54 | 0.37 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1.15 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.11 | 1.02 | 1.61 | 0.62 | 0.44 | – | 0.02 | 0.78 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.11 | 0.68 | 1.18 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 1.50 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.12 | 0.82 | 1.38 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1.27 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.14 | 0.72 | 1.29 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 1.34 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.14 | 0.90 | 1.51 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.90 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.11 | 0.99 | 1.51 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.86 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.11 | 0.88 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 1.08 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.17 | 0.69 | 1.34 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 1.04 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.14 | 0.91 | 1.51 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.78 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.12 | 0.79 | 1.35 | 0.47 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.04 | 1.04 | 1.36 | 0.33 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.11 | 0.85 | 1.34 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.75 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.07 | 0.75 | 1.13 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 1.26 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.09 | 0.81 | 1.26 | 0.42 | 0.40 | – | 0.04 | 0.91 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.09 | 0.78 | 1.21 | 0.38 | 0.41 | – | 0.03 | 1.00 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.10 | 0.84 | 1.35 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.78 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.07 | 0.67 | 1.05 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.97 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.09 | 0.73 | 1.16 | 0.37 | 0.31 | – | 0.02 | 1.06 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.11 | 0.76 | 1.25 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.11 | 0.72 | 1.19 | 0.46 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.89 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.05 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 1.19 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.01 | 0.94 | 1.16 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.61 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 0.07 | 0.68 | 1.05 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.89 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 0.07 | 0.81 | 1.19 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.60 |
Pitchers
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 100.0% | 5.6 | 7.4 | 2.54 | 4.12 | 0.08 | 2.19 | 23.2 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 100.0% | 5.5 | 6.6 | 2.11 | 4.40 | 0.17 | 2.02 | 22.7 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 100.0% | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.15 | 4.61 | 0.19 | 2.46 | 20.8 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 100.0% | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.77 | 4.23 | 0.13 | 2.06 | 18.0 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 89.3% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.30 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 3.8 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 88.0% | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 3.6 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 86.3% | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 4.0 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 85.7% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.30 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.48 | 3.9 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 84.7% | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.45 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 3.8 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 81.0% | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.32 | 0.80 | 0.04 | 0.47 | 3.7 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 78.5% | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.47 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.58 | 3.9 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 76.9% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.40 | 0.82 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 3.9 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 76.8% | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.04 | 0.58 | 3.9 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 76.5% | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.40 | 3.8 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 67.8% | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.35 | 0.93 | 0.05 | 0.54 | 4.1 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 57.8% | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 0.04 | 0.40 | 3.8 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 52.2% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.56 | 1.02 | 0.06 | 0.70 | 4.4 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 50.7% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.34 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 3.9 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 50.0% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 0.03 | 0.63 | 4.0 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 49.8% | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.51 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 4.1 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 47.7% | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.50 | 0.87 | 0.04 | 0.50 | 4.2 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 43.0% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.47 | 0.78 | 0.03 | 0.41 | 4.0 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 37.6% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.34 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.42 | 4.0 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 37.4% | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.39 | 0.77 | 0.05 | 0.41 | 3.9 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 37.2% | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.31 | 0.81 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 4.0 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 36.1% | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.32 | 0.71 | 0.01 | 0.30 | 3.9 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 33.9% | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.03 | 0.41 | 4.0 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 33.9% | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.03 | 0.41 | 4.0 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 31.6% | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.07 | 0.43 | 4.0 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 28.6% | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 0.03 | 0.48 | 4.1 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 28.5% | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.30 | 0.82 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 3.9 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 28.5% | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.40 | 0.84 | 0.03 | 0.38 | 4.0 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 21.0% | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.41 | 0.94 | 0.03 | 0.54 | 4.2 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 19.3% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.42 | 0.93 | 0.04 | 0.51 | 4.1 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 16.9% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.19 | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.31 | 3.8 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 13.4% | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.29 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 3.9 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 10.2% | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 0.01 | 0.79 | 4.5 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 10.2% | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 3.9 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 9.6% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.41 | 0.72 | 0.01 | 0.39 | 3.8 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 7.9% | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.41 | 0.95 | 0.04 | 0.62 | 4.1 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 6.8% | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.65 | 4.2 |
|
|
MIL @ LAD | 5.9% | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 0.75 | 4.6 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 5.8% | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.17 | 0.86 | 0.02 | 0.52 | 3.8 |
|
|
TB @ CLE | 5.5% | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.36 | 1.02 | 0.05 | 0.56 | 4.2 |
Fantasy
Batters
Not yet included: Runs Scored
Estimated, not directly simulated: SB
| 1 | José Ramírez | TB @ CLE | 8.1 | 1.80 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| 2 | Will Smith | MIL @ LAD | 7.4 | 1.75 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| 3 | Mookie Betts | MIL @ LAD | 7.4 | 1.91 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| 4 | Jake Bauers | MIL @ LAD | 7.4 | 1.52 | 0.50 | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani | MIL @ LAD | 7.3 | 1.62 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| 6 | Chase Delauter | TB @ CLE | 6.6 | 1.61 | 0.62 | 0.44 | – | 0.02 |
| 7 | Junior Caminero | TB @ CLE | 6.5 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| 8 | Jo Adell | TB @ CLE | 6.4 | 1.59 | 0.63 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| 9 | Steven Kwan | TB @ CLE | 6.3 | 1.36 | 0.33 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| 10 | William Contreras | MIL @ LAD | 6.3 | 1.51 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| 11 | Jackson Chourio | MIL @ LAD | 6.2 | 1.51 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| 12 | Freddie Freeman | MIL @ LAD | 6.1 | 1.51 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| 13 | Teoscar Hernández | MIL @ LAD | 6.1 | 1.49 | 0.54 | 0.37 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| 14 | Yandy Díaz | TB @ CLE | 6.1 | 1.60 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| 15 | Garrett Mitchell | MIL @ LAD | 6.1 | 1.27 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| 16 | Andy Pages | MIL @ LAD | 6.0 | 1.51 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| 17 | Brice Turang | MIL @ LAD | 6.0 | 1.18 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| 18 | Jonathan Aranda | TB @ CLE | 5.9 | 1.37 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| 19 | Max Muncy | MIL @ LAD | 5.8 | 1.34 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| 20 | Christian Yelich | MIL @ LAD | 5.8 | 1.29 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| 21 | Victor Mesa | TB @ CLE | 5.7 | 1.38 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| 22 | Kyle Tucker | MIL @ LAD | 5.7 | 1.25 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| 23 | Liam Hicks | TB @ CLE | 5.7 | 1.34 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| 24 | Nathaniel Lowe | TB @ CLE | 5.7 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| 25 | Patrick Bailey | TB @ CLE | 5.3 | 1.35 | 0.47 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 26 | Richie Palacios | TB @ CLE | 5.2 | 1.05 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| 27 | Travis Bazzana | TB @ CLE | 5.2 | 1.26 | 0.42 | 0.40 | – | 0.04 |
| 28 | Chandler Simpson | TB @ CLE | 5.2 | 1.16 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.01 |
| 29 | Petey Halpin | TB @ CLE | 5.1 | 1.35 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| 30 | Cooper Pratt | MIL @ LAD | 5.0 | 1.21 | 0.38 | 0.41 | – | 0.03 |
| 31 | Jonny Deluca | TB @ CLE | 4.8 | 1.13 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| 32 | Brayan Rocchio | TB @ CLE | 4.8 | 1.19 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| 33 | Enrique Hernández | MIL @ LAD | 4.6 | 1.19 | 0.46 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 34 | Luis Lara | MIL @ LAD | 4.6 | 1.16 | 0.37 | 0.31 | – | 0.02 |
| 35 | Taylor Walls | TB @ CLE | 4.5 | 0.89 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| 36 | Joey Ortiz | MIL @ LAD | 4.4 | 1.05 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
Pitchers
Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves
Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | MIL @ LAD | 23.6 | 5.61 | 7.36 | 2.54 | 4.12 | 0.08 | 2.19 |
| 2 | Gavin Williams | TB @ CLE | 21.3 | 5.47 | 6.55 | 2.11 | 4.40 | 0.17 | 2.02 |
| 3 | Shane Drohan | MIL @ LAD | 10.9 | 4.82 | 4.29 | 2.15 | 4.61 | 0.19 | 2.46 |
| 4 | Griffin Jax | TB @ CLE | 9.6 | 4.07 | 3.85 | 1.77 | 4.23 | 0.13 | 2.06 |
| 5 | Alex Vesia | MIL @ LAD | 3.1 | 0.85 | 1.16 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| 6 | Erik Sabrowski | TB @ CLE | 2.7 | 0.89 | 1.21 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| 7 | Brock Stewart | MIL @ LAD | 2.0 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
| 8 | Cam Booser | TB @ CLE | 2.0 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.30 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| 9 | Cole Sulser | TB @ CLE | 1.8 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 0.30 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| 10 | Edwin Díaz | MIL @ LAD | 1.7 | 0.94 | 1.37 | 0.50 | 0.87 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| 11 | Aaron Ashby | MIL @ LAD | 1.7 | 0.88 | 0.99 | 0.47 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| 12 | Tanner Scott | MIL @ LAD | 1.6 | 0.99 | 1.24 | 0.32 | 0.71 | 0.01 | 0.30 |
| 13 | Cade Smith | TB @ CLE | 1.6 | 0.98 | 1.30 | 0.31 | 0.81 | 0.05 | 0.37 |
| 14 | Jojo Romero | MIL @ LAD | 1.5 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.40 | 0.82 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| 15 | Matt Festa | TB @ CLE | 1.5 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.35 | 0.93 | 0.05 | 0.54 |
| 16 | Hunter Gaddis | TB @ CLE | 1.4 | 0.86 | 0.69 | 0.32 | 0.80 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| 17 | Edgardo Henriquez | MIL @ LAD | 1.4 | 0.93 | 1.11 | 0.51 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
| 18 | Kevin Kelly | TB @ CLE | 1.4 | 0.94 | 0.74 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| 19 | Kris Bubic | MIL @ LAD | 1.3 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 0.47 | 0.78 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| 20 | Tyler Wells | TB @ CLE | 1.1 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.34 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| 21 | Ian Seymour | TB @ CLE | 1.1 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.34 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.42 |
| 22 | Daniel Espino | TB @ CLE | 1.1 | 0.94 | 1.07 | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| 23 | Abner Uribe | MIL @ LAD | 1.0 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.39 | 0.77 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| 24 | Steven Matz | TB @ CLE | 1.0 | 0.92 | 0.61 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.03 | 0.57 |
| 25 | Antonio Senzatela | MIL @ LAD | 0.9 | 0.89 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.92 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| 26 | Dl Hall | MIL @ LAD | 0.9 | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| 27 | Trevor Megill | MIL @ LAD | 0.8 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.82 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| 28 | Tim Herrin | TB @ CLE | 0.8 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.07 | 0.43 |
| 29 | Joey Cantillo | TB @ CLE | 0.8 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.40 | 0.84 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| 30 | Chad Patrick | MIL @ LAD | 0.7 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| 31 | Evan Phillips | MIL @ LAD | 0.7 | 0.96 | 1.15 | 0.19 | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.31 |
| 32 | Bryan Baker | TB @ CLE | 0.7 | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 0.03 | 0.48 |
| 33 | Brody Hopkins | TB @ CLE | 0.6 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.56 | 1.02 | 0.06 | 0.70 |
| 34 | Kyle Harrison | MIL @ LAD | 0.6 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 0.41 | 0.94 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| 35 | Shawn Armstrong | TB @ CLE | 0.3 | 0.95 | 0.76 | 0.42 | 0.93 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| 36 | Justin Wrobleski | MIL @ LAD | 0.3 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 37 | Andrew Vaughn | MIL @ LAD | 0.2 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 0.41 | 0.72 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| 38 | Slade Cecconi | TB @ CLE | 0.2 | 0.92 | 0.66 | 0.29 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
| 39 | Dustin May | MIL @ LAD | 0.2 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.41 | 0.95 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| 40 | Roki Sasaki | MIL @ LAD | 0.1 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 0.01 | 0.79 |
| 41 | Tanner Bibee | TB @ CLE | 0.1 | 0.98 | 0.69 | 0.17 | 0.86 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
| 42 | Foster Griffin | TB @ CLE | 0.1 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.36 | 1.02 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
| 43 | Austin Hedges | TB @ CLE | 0.1 | 0.98 | 0.62 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.65 |
| 44 | Enrique Hernández | MIL @ LAD | 0.0 | 0.97 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 0.75 |