MLB predictions Wed, Oct 14

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · model went 0–1 · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 12d ago

✗ Favorite lost Final · Wed, Oct 14

Brewers

6 37.6% · proj 3.8

Dodgers

2 62.4% · proj 5.2

NLCS Game 3 · MIL leads 2-0

ModelMarket

LAD -1.5 42.5% 41.6%

LAD win 62.4% 62.0%

Total 9.1 7.0

Our bet LAD -171 ✗ Lost

Set at line LAD 60.3% · model 62.4%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Mookie Betts	0.23	1.05	1.93	0.59	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.06
Will Smith	0.18	0.94	1.67	0.61	0.53	0.07	0.59	0.02
Freddie Freeman	0.16	0.97	1.63	0.52	0.40	0.09	0.76	0.05
Shohei Ohtani	0.21	0.82	1.61	0.59	0.45	0.07	1.02	0.12
Teoscar Hernández	0.18	0.89	1.60	0.57	0.39	0.05	1.15	0.04
William Contreras	0.14	0.96	1.55	0.48	0.51	0.02	0.90	0.03
Jackson Chourio	0.15	0.92	1.53	0.42	0.46	0.02	1.48	0.11
Andy Pages	0.15	0.92	1.52	0.52	0.31	0.06	0.73	0.06
Miguel Rojas	0.11	0.91	1.44	0.44	0.26	0.04	0.39	0.05
Kyle Tucker	0.14	0.83	1.40	0.53	0.46	0.04	0.63	0.11
Luis Lara	0.12	0.82	1.31	0.46	0.43	0.02	1.10	–
Tommy Edman	0.11	0.79	1.27	0.45	0.24	0.15	0.63	0.08
Cooper Pratt	0.09	0.82	1.21	0.40	0.51	0.03	0.97	–
Gary Sánchez	0.12	0.68	1.18	0.45	0.73	0.06	1.25	0.00
Jake Bauers	0.13	0.64	1.14	0.46	0.68	0.03	1.55	0.10
Joey Ortiz	0.08	0.75	1.14	0.38	0.35	0.01	0.96	0.07
Brice Turang	0.09	0.72	1.11	0.34	0.61	0.01	1.59	0.15
Garrett Mitchell	0.08	0.62	1.01	0.37	0.42	0.03	1.58	0.13

	Workload	Results
Blake Snell	100%	4.9	20.8	6.7	2.73	3.69	0.09	1.85
Robert Gasser	100%	5.0	21.7	3.4	1.87	4.85	0.44	2.82
Tanner Scott	39%	1.0	4.0	1.3	0.34	0.75	0.02	0.34
Edwin Díaz	92%	0.9	3.9	1.3	0.52	0.72	0.05	0.47
Alex Vesia	64%	1.0	4.2	1.2	0.63	0.77	0.01	0.53
Edgardo Henriquez	53%	1.0	4.2	1.1	0.50	0.82	0.05	0.51
Roki Sasaki	16%	1.0	4.3	1.0	0.49	0.90	0.08	0.62
Kris Bubic	23%	1.0	4.1	1.0	0.54	0.70	0.02	0.36
Brock Stewart	56%	1.0	4.1	1.0	0.46	0.85	0.03	0.49
Trevor Megill	24%	1.0	4.0	1.0	0.33	0.80	0.04	0.40
Evan Phillips	94%	0.9	3.6	1.0	0.30	0.74	0.03	0.47
Aaron Ashby	34%	0.9	3.9	1.0	0.48	0.77	0.04	0.42
Kyle Harrison	22%	0.9	4.1	0.9	0.35	0.98	0.05	0.55
Justin Wrobleski	18%	1.0	3.9	0.8	0.30	0.80	0.03	0.47
Dustin May	5%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.55	0.70	0.09	0.51
Abner Uribe	35%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.49	0.89	0.04	0.57
Shane Drohan	21%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.45	0.83	0.03	0.60
Dl Hall	77%	0.9	3.9	0.8	0.54	0.78	0.04	0.54
Andrew Vaughn	8%	0.9	4.2	0.8	0.43	1.07	0.06	0.60
Jojo Romero	32%	0.9	3.9	0.8	0.33	0.87	0.05	0.50
Chad Patrick	68%	0.9	4.0	0.7	0.42	0.89	0.04	0.64
Enrique Hernández	10%	1.0	4.7	0.6	0.69	1.18	0.03	0.82
Antonio Senzatela	74%	0.9	4.1	0.6	0.40	1.06	0.07	0.69

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-3%	-7%	+18%	-1%	-3%
Umpire				0%	0%
Home field (LAD batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	MIL	LAD	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Projected
K%	22.0%	18.7%	22.5%
BB%	10.3%	9.1%	8.1%
HR%	2.7%	3.2%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	R. Gasser	B. Snell
K%	19.8%	33.3%	22.5%
BB%	7.2%	10.7%	8.1%
HR%	3.5%	2.6%	3.1%
Innings	5.4	5.1
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	+2%	-2%
BB%	-2%	+3%

HR watch

Mookie Betts0.23 HR
Shohei Ohtani0.21 HR
Will Smith0.18 HR
Teoscar Hernández0.18 HR
Freddie Freeman0.16 HR

Batters

Rank by


MIL @ LAD	0.15	0.92	1.53	0.42	0.46	0.11	0.02	1.48
MIL @ LAD	0.21	0.82	1.61	0.59	0.45	0.12	0.07	1.02
MIL @ LAD	0.18	0.89	1.60	0.57	0.39	0.04	0.05	1.15
MIL @ LAD	0.23	1.05	1.93	0.59	0.46	0.06	0.04	0.42
MIL @ LAD	0.13	0.64	1.14	0.46	0.68	0.10	0.03	1.55
MIL @ LAD	0.09	0.72	1.11	0.34	0.61	0.15	0.01	1.59
MIL @ LAD	0.18	0.94	1.67	0.61	0.53	0.02	0.07	0.59
MIL @ LAD	0.14	0.96	1.55	0.48	0.51	0.03	0.02	0.90
MIL @ LAD	0.16	0.97	1.63	0.52	0.40	0.05	0.09	0.76
MIL @ LAD	0.12	0.68	1.18	0.45	0.73	0.00	0.06	1.25
MIL @ LAD	0.15	0.92	1.52	0.52	0.31	0.06	0.06	0.73
MIL @ LAD	0.12	0.82	1.31	0.46	0.43	–	0.02	1.10
MIL @ LAD	0.08	0.62	1.01	0.37	0.42	0.13	0.03	1.58
MIL @ LAD	0.14	0.83	1.40	0.53	0.46	0.11	0.04	0.63
MIL @ LAD	0.09	0.82	1.21	0.40	0.51	–	0.03	0.97
MIL @ LAD	0.08	0.75	1.14	0.38	0.35	0.07	0.01	0.96
MIL @ LAD	0.11	0.79	1.27	0.45	0.24	0.08	0.15	0.63
MIL @ LAD	0.11	0.91	1.44	0.44	0.26	0.05	0.04	0.39

Pitchers

Rank by


MIL @ LAD	100.0%	4.9	6.7	2.73	3.69	0.09	1.85	20.8
MIL @ LAD	100.0%	5.0	3.4	1.87	4.85	0.44	2.82	21.7
MIL @ LAD	93.5%	0.9	1.0	0.30	0.74	0.03	0.47	3.6
MIL @ LAD	92.5%	0.9	1.3	0.52	0.72	0.05	0.47	3.9
MIL @ LAD	76.7%	0.9	0.8	0.54	0.78	0.04	0.54	3.9
MIL @ LAD	74.1%	0.9	0.6	0.40	1.06	0.07	0.69	4.1
MIL @ LAD	68.3%	0.9	0.7	0.42	0.89	0.04	0.64	4.0
MIL @ LAD	64.5%	1.0	1.2	0.63	0.77	0.01	0.53	4.2
MIL @ LAD	56.5%	1.0	1.0	0.46	0.85	0.03	0.49	4.1
MIL @ LAD	53.1%	1.0	1.1	0.50	0.82	0.05	0.51	4.2
MIL @ LAD	39.1%	1.0	1.3	0.34	0.75	0.02	0.34	4.0
MIL @ LAD	35.2%	0.9	0.8	0.49	0.89	0.04	0.57	4.0
MIL @ LAD	34.2%	0.9	1.0	0.48	0.77	0.04	0.42	3.9
MIL @ LAD	31.7%	0.9	0.8	0.33	0.87	0.05	0.50	3.9
MIL @ LAD	24.5%	1.0	1.0	0.33	0.80	0.04	0.40	4.0
MIL @ LAD	22.6%	1.0	1.0	0.54	0.70	0.02	0.36	4.1
MIL @ LAD	21.8%	0.9	0.9	0.35	0.98	0.05	0.55	4.1
MIL @ LAD	21.4%	0.9	0.8	0.45	0.83	0.03	0.60	4.0
MIL @ LAD	18.4%	1.0	0.8	0.30	0.80	0.03	0.47	3.9
MIL @ LAD	15.6%	1.0	1.0	0.49	0.90	0.08	0.62	4.3
MIL @ LAD	10.2%	1.0	0.6	0.69	1.18	0.03	0.82	4.7
MIL @ LAD	8.2%	0.9	0.8	0.43	1.07	0.06	0.60	4.2
MIL @ LAD	4.7%	0.9	0.8	0.55	0.70	0.09	0.51	4.0

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Mookie Betts	MIL @ LAD	7.7	1.93	0.59	0.46	0.06	0.04
2	Shohei Ohtani	MIL @ LAD	7.2	1.61	0.59	0.45	0.12	0.07
3	Will Smith	MIL @ LAD	7.1	1.67	0.61	0.53	0.02	0.07
4	Freddie Freeman	MIL @ LAD	6.7	1.63	0.52	0.40	0.05	0.09
5	Teoscar Hernández	MIL @ LAD	6.6	1.60	0.57	0.39	0.04	0.05
6	Jackson Chourio	MIL @ LAD	6.5	1.53	0.42	0.46	0.11	0.02
7	William Contreras	MIL @ LAD	6.5	1.55	0.48	0.51	0.03	0.02
8	Kyle Tucker	MIL @ LAD	6.4	1.40	0.53	0.46	0.11	0.04
9	Andy Pages	MIL @ LAD	6.1	1.52	0.52	0.31	0.06	0.06
10	Jake Bauers	MIL @ LAD	6.1	1.14	0.46	0.68	0.10	0.03
11	Gary Sánchez	MIL @ LAD	6.0	1.18	0.45	0.73	0.00	0.06
12	Brice Turang	MIL @ LAD	5.8	1.11	0.34	0.61	0.15	0.01
13	Miguel Rojas	MIL @ LAD	5.6	1.44	0.44	0.26	0.05	0.04
14	Tommy Edman	MIL @ LAD	5.5	1.27	0.45	0.24	0.08	0.15
15	Luis Lara	MIL @ LAD	5.4	1.31	0.46	0.43	–	0.02
16	Cooper Pratt	MIL @ LAD	5.3	1.21	0.40	0.51	–	0.03
17	Garrett Mitchell	MIL @ LAD	5.0	1.01	0.37	0.42	0.13	0.03
18	Joey Ortiz	MIL @ LAD	4.9	1.14	0.38	0.35	0.07	0.01

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Blake Snell	MIL @ LAD	20.6	4.87	6.67	2.73	3.69	0.09	1.85
2	Robert Gasser	MIL @ LAD	7.6	5.00	3.44	1.87	4.85	0.44	2.82
3	Edwin Díaz	MIL @ LAD	3.2	0.90	1.27	0.52	0.72	0.05	0.47
4	Evan Phillips	MIL @ LAD	2.5	0.86	0.98	0.30	0.74	0.03	0.47
5	Alex Vesia	MIL @ LAD	2.0	0.96	1.22	0.63	0.77	0.01	0.53
6	Tanner Scott	MIL @ LAD	1.7	0.99	1.27	0.34	0.75	0.02	0.34
7	Edgardo Henriquez	MIL @ LAD	1.6	0.97	1.14	0.50	0.82	0.05	0.51
8	Brock Stewart	MIL @ LAD	1.5	0.96	1.01	0.46	0.85	0.03	0.49
9	Dl Hall	MIL @ LAD	1.2	0.87	0.78	0.54	0.78	0.04	0.54
10	Aaron Ashby	MIL @ LAD	0.9	0.90	0.95	0.48	0.77	0.04	0.42
11	Chad Patrick	MIL @ LAD	0.8	0.91	0.72	0.42	0.89	0.04	0.64
12	Trevor Megill	MIL @ LAD	0.8	0.97	1.00	0.33	0.80	0.04	0.40
13	Kris Bubic	MIL @ LAD	0.7	0.97	1.01	0.54	0.70	0.02	0.36
14	Jojo Romero	MIL @ LAD	0.6	0.93	0.77	0.33	0.87	0.05	0.50
15	Abner Uribe	MIL @ LAD	0.6	0.92	0.79	0.49	0.89	0.04	0.57
16	Kyle Harrison	MIL @ LAD	0.5	0.95	0.93	0.35	0.98	0.05	0.55
17	Justin Wrobleski	MIL @ LAD	0.5	0.97	0.81	0.30	0.80	0.03	0.47
18	Roki Sasaki	MIL @ LAD	0.4	0.98	1.03	0.49	0.90	0.08	0.62
19	Antonio Senzatela	MIL @ LAD	0.4	0.89	0.62	0.40	1.06	0.07	0.69
20	Shane Drohan	MIL @ LAD	0.3	0.93	0.78	0.45	0.83	0.03	0.60
21	Andrew Vaughn	MIL @ LAD	0.1	0.90	0.77	0.43	1.07	0.06	0.60
22	Dustin May	MIL @ LAD	0.1	0.93	0.81	0.55	0.70	0.09	0.51
23	Enrique Hernández	MIL @ LAD	-0.0	0.97	0.63	0.69	1.18	0.03	0.82

MLB predictions Wed, Oct 14

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