MLB predictions Tue, Oct 13

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · model went 0–1 · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 13d ago

✗ Favorite lost Final · Tue, Oct 13

Guardians

1 53.3% · proj 4.3

Rays

3 46.7% · proj 4.0

ALCS Game 2 · CLE leads 1-0

ModelMarket

TB -1.5 31.8% 35.7%

CLE win 53.3% 44.8%

Total 8.2 6.5

Our bet CLE +110 ✗ Lost

Set at line CLE 45.6% · model 57.2%

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Junior Caminero	0.20	0.99	1.79	0.56	0.47	0.01	0.82	0.04
José Ramírez	0.12	1.04	1.71	0.50	0.49	0.02	0.56	0.24
Yandy Díaz	0.12	1.06	1.64	0.45	0.34	0.05	0.71	0.01
Jo Adell	0.15	0.98	1.62	0.63	0.22	0.13	1.10	0.08
Chase Delauter	0.11	0.98	1.54	0.55	0.46	0.02	0.71	–
Angel Martínez	0.14	0.83	1.48	0.48	0.17	0.06	0.91	0.05
Victor Mesa	0.11	0.83	1.38	0.51	0.28	0.03	0.97	0.03
Nathaniel Lowe	0.10	0.83	1.34	0.46	0.41	0.03	1.01	0.01
Jonny Deluca	0.07	0.85	1.30	0.42	0.18	0.01	0.96	0.14
Ben Williamson	0.07	0.86	1.29	0.37	0.26	0.02	0.80	0.04
Steven Kwan	0.04	0.96	1.28	0.32	0.58	0.03	0.47	0.08
Jonathan Aranda	0.10	0.80	1.24	0.37	0.41	0.07	1.28	0.01
Patrick Bailey	0.10	0.76	1.24	0.40	0.32	0.02	0.99	0.01
Brayan Rocchio	0.08	0.76	1.20	0.36	0.27	0.08	0.56	0.07
Travis Bazzana	0.08	0.68	1.10	0.35	0.40	0.05	0.86	–
Chandler Simpson	0.01	0.87	1.07	0.30	0.14	0.00	0.39	0.19
Liam Hicks	0.08	0.69	1.04	0.31	0.33	0.06	0.50	0.01
Taylor Walls	0.05	0.61	0.91	0.28	0.33	0.01	0.96	0.13

	Workload	Results
Parker Messick	100%	5.6	23.1	4.87	1.57	4.92	0.15	2.11
Freddy Peralta	100%	5.2	22.3	4.03	2.12	4.63	0.29	2.36
Cade Smith	32%	0.9	3.8	1.20	0.26	0.78	0.04	0.40
Ian Seymour	18%	1.0	4.0	1.15	0.27	0.76	0.03	0.40
Erik Sabrowski	28%	0.9	3.8	1.07	0.52	0.66	0.03	0.41
Griffin Jax	16%	1.0	4.1	1.04	0.30	0.99	0.03	0.50
Tyler Wells	22%	1.0	3.8	0.94	0.27	0.61	0.02	0.29
Bryan Baker	36%	1.0	4.1	0.88	0.38	0.81	0.03	0.41
Cam Booser	57%	1.0	3.9	0.87	0.31	0.76	0.04	0.39
Daniel Espino	16%	0.9	4.0	0.85	0.42	0.95	0.01	0.44
Brody Hopkins	87%	0.9	4.0	0.85	0.43	0.89	0.04	0.56
Cole Sulser	49%	1.0	4.1	0.82	0.31	0.88	0.04	0.47
Gavin Williams	5%	0.9	3.9	0.80	0.29	0.80	0.02	0.59
Foster Griffin	1%	0.9	4.1	0.79	0.14	1.29	0.00	0.50
Shawn Armstrong	50%	0.9	4.0	0.77	0.43	0.83	0.04	0.50
Kevin Kelly	55%	1.0	3.9	0.76	0.18	0.82	0.05	0.39
Matt Festa	57%	0.9	3.9	0.74	0.33	0.93	0.05	0.51
Tim Herrin	68%	0.8	3.6	0.72	0.38	0.72	0.05	0.43
Hunter Gaddis	47%	0.9	3.9	0.71	0.35	0.82	0.04	0.45
Joey Cantillo	6%	0.9	3.9	0.65	0.30	0.94	0.02	0.52
Slade Cecconi	34%	0.9	3.9	0.59	0.29	1.00	0.03	0.51
Steven Matz	91%	0.8	3.5	0.59	0.27	0.77	0.03	0.50
Austin Hedges	5%	0.9	3.5	0.57	0.20	0.74	0.02	0.35
Tanner Bibee	4%	0.9	3.4	0.37	0.26	0.63	0.00	0.44

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-4%	-1%	-5%	-1%	+4%
Weather	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Umpire				+3%	-2%
Home field (TB batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	CLE	TB	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Confirmed
K%	18.6%	17.5%	22.5%
BB%	8.2%	8.0%	8.1%
HR%	2.7%	2.4%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	P. Messick	F. Peralta
K%	25.2%	21.6%	22.5%
BB%	6.1%	8.4%	8.1%
HR%	3.1%	3.3%	3.1%
Innings	6.0	5.5
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	+4%	+1%
BB%	-5%	-1%

HR watch

Junior Caminero0.20 HR
Jo Adell0.15 HR
Angel Martínez0.14 HR
Yandy Díaz0.12 HR
José Ramírez0.12 HR

Batters

Rank by


CLE @ TB	0.15	0.98	1.62	0.63	0.22	0.08	0.13	1.10
CLE @ TB	0.20	0.99	1.79	0.56	0.47	0.04	0.01	0.82
CLE @ TB	0.12	1.04	1.71	0.50	0.49	0.24	0.02	0.56
CLE @ TB	0.12	1.06	1.64	0.45	0.34	0.01	0.05	0.71
CLE @ TB	0.11	0.98	1.54	0.55	0.46	–	0.02	0.71
CLE @ TB	0.10	0.80	1.24	0.37	0.41	0.01	0.07	1.28
CLE @ TB	0.10	0.83	1.34	0.46	0.41	0.01	0.03	1.01
CLE @ TB	0.11	0.83	1.38	0.51	0.28	0.03	0.03	0.97
CLE @ TB	0.14	0.83	1.48	0.48	0.17	0.05	0.06	0.91
CLE @ TB	0.07	0.85	1.30	0.42	0.18	0.14	0.01	0.96
CLE @ TB	0.10	0.76	1.24	0.40	0.32	0.01	0.02	0.99
CLE @ TB	0.04	0.96	1.28	0.32	0.58	0.08	0.03	0.47
CLE @ TB	0.07	0.86	1.29	0.37	0.26	0.04	0.02	0.80
CLE @ TB	0.08	0.68	1.10	0.35	0.40	–	0.05	0.86
CLE @ TB	0.08	0.76	1.20	0.36	0.27	0.07	0.08	0.56
CLE @ TB	0.05	0.61	0.91	0.28	0.33	0.13	0.01	0.96
CLE @ TB	0.08	0.69	1.04	0.31	0.33	0.01	0.06	0.50
CLE @ TB	0.01	0.87	1.07	0.30	0.14	0.19	0.00	0.39

Pitchers

Rank by


CLE @ TB	100.0%	5.6	4.87	1.57	4.92	0.15	2.11	23.1
CLE @ TB	100.0%	5.2	4.03	2.12	4.63	0.29	2.36	22.3
CLE @ TB	91.0%	0.8	0.59	0.27	0.77	0.03	0.50	3.5
CLE @ TB	87.4%	0.9	0.85	0.43	0.89	0.04	0.56	4.0
CLE @ TB	68.4%	0.8	0.72	0.38	0.72	0.05	0.43	3.6
CLE @ TB	57.1%	0.9	0.74	0.33	0.93	0.05	0.51	3.9
CLE @ TB	56.8%	1.0	0.87	0.31	0.76	0.04	0.39	3.9
CLE @ TB	55.4%	1.0	0.76	0.18	0.82	0.05	0.39	3.9
CLE @ TB	50.3%	0.9	0.77	0.43	0.83	0.04	0.50	4.0
CLE @ TB	49.4%	1.0	0.82	0.31	0.88	0.04	0.47	4.1
CLE @ TB	47.3%	0.9	0.71	0.35	0.82	0.04	0.45	3.9
CLE @ TB	36.0%	1.0	0.88	0.38	0.81	0.03	0.41	4.1
CLE @ TB	34.2%	0.9	0.59	0.29	1.00	0.03	0.51	3.9
CLE @ TB	31.8%	0.9	1.20	0.26	0.78	0.04	0.40	3.8
CLE @ TB	28.2%	0.9	1.07	0.52	0.66	0.03	0.41	3.8
CLE @ TB	21.6%	1.0	0.94	0.27	0.61	0.02	0.29	3.8
CLE @ TB	18.3%	1.0	1.15	0.27	0.76	0.03	0.40	4.0
CLE @ TB	15.8%	0.9	0.85	0.42	0.95	0.01	0.44	4.0
CLE @ TB	15.5%	1.0	1.04	0.30	0.99	0.03	0.50	4.1
CLE @ TB	6.3%	0.9	0.65	0.30	0.94	0.02	0.52	3.9
CLE @ TB	5.4%	0.9	0.57	0.20	0.74	0.02	0.35	3.5
CLE @ TB	5.1%	0.9	0.80	0.29	0.80	0.02	0.59	3.9
CLE @ TB	4.3%	0.9	0.37	0.26	0.63	0.00	0.44	3.4
CLE @ TB	1.4%	0.9	0.79	0.14	1.29	0.00	0.50	4.1

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	José Ramírez	CLE @ TB	7.7	1.71	0.50	0.49	0.24	0.02
2	Junior Caminero	CLE @ TB	7.1	1.79	0.56	0.47	0.04	0.01
3	Jo Adell	CLE @ TB	6.7	1.62	0.63	0.22	0.08	0.13
4	Chase Delauter	CLE @ TB	6.3	1.54	0.55	0.46	–	0.02
5	Yandy Díaz	CLE @ TB	6.1	1.64	0.45	0.34	0.01	0.05
6	Steven Kwan	CLE @ TB	5.9	1.28	0.32	0.58	0.08	0.03
7	Angel Martínez	CLE @ TB	5.5	1.48	0.48	0.17	0.05	0.06
8	Nathaniel Lowe	CLE @ TB	5.5	1.34	0.46	0.41	0.01	0.03
9	Victor Mesa	CLE @ TB	5.5	1.38	0.51	0.28	0.03	0.03
10	Jonny Deluca	CLE @ TB	5.3	1.30	0.42	0.18	0.14	0.01
11	Jonathan Aranda	CLE @ TB	5.2	1.24	0.37	0.41	0.01	0.07
12	Brayan Rocchio	CLE @ TB	5.0	1.20	0.36	0.27	0.07	0.08
13	Ben Williamson	CLE @ TB	4.9	1.29	0.37	0.26	0.04	0.02
14	Patrick Bailey	CLE @ TB	4.9	1.24	0.40	0.32	0.01	0.02
15	Travis Bazzana	CLE @ TB	4.7	1.10	0.35	0.40	–	0.05
16	Chandler Simpson	CLE @ TB	4.6	1.07	0.30	0.14	0.19	0.00
17	Liam Hicks	CLE @ TB	4.4	1.04	0.31	0.33	0.01	0.06
18	Taylor Walls	CLE @ TB	4.3	0.91	0.28	0.33	0.13	0.01

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Parker Messick	CLE @ TB	16.5	5.63	4.87	1.57	4.92	0.15	2.11
2	Freddy Peralta	CLE @ TB	11.4	5.19	4.03	2.12	4.63	0.29	2.36
3	Cam Booser	CLE @ TB	1.6	0.95	0.87	0.31	0.76	0.04	0.39
4	Brody Hopkins	CLE @ TB	1.6	0.90	0.85	0.43	0.89	0.04	0.56
5	Kevin Kelly	CLE @ TB	1.4	0.96	0.76	0.18	0.82	0.05	0.39
6	Tim Herrin	CLE @ TB	1.3	0.85	0.72	0.38	0.72	0.05	0.43
7	Steven Matz	CLE @ TB	1.3	0.84	0.59	0.27	0.77	0.03	0.50
8	Cade Smith	CLE @ TB	1.2	0.92	1.20	0.26	0.78	0.04	0.40
9	Cole Sulser	CLE @ TB	1.2	0.97	0.82	0.31	0.88	0.04	0.47
10	Bryan Baker	CLE @ TB	1.0	0.99	0.88	0.38	0.81	0.03	0.41
11	Hunter Gaddis	CLE @ TB	0.9	0.92	0.71	0.35	0.82	0.04	0.45
12	Matt Festa	CLE @ TB	0.9	0.88	0.74	0.33	0.93	0.05	0.51
13	Shawn Armstrong	CLE @ TB	0.9	0.91	0.77	0.43	0.83	0.04	0.50
14	Erik Sabrowski	CLE @ TB	0.9	0.90	1.07	0.52	0.66	0.03	0.41
15	Tyler Wells	CLE @ TB	0.8	0.97	0.94	0.27	0.61	0.02	0.29
16	Ian Seymour	CLE @ TB	0.7	0.98	1.15	0.27	0.76	0.03	0.40
17	Griffin Jax	CLE @ TB	0.4	0.97	1.04	0.30	0.99	0.03	0.50
18	Slade Cecconi	CLE @ TB	0.4	0.90	0.59	0.29	1.00	0.03	0.51
19	Daniel Espino	CLE @ TB	0.3	0.91	0.85	0.42	0.95	0.01	0.44
20	Austin Hedges	CLE @ TB	0.1	0.90	0.57	0.20	0.74	0.02	0.35
21	Gavin Williams	CLE @ TB	0.1	0.91	0.80	0.29	0.80	0.02	0.59
22	Joey Cantillo	CLE @ TB	0.1	0.91	0.65	0.30	0.94	0.02	0.52
23	Tanner Bibee	CLE @ TB	0.1	0.88	0.37	0.26	0.63	0.00	0.44
24	Foster Griffin	CLE @ TB	0.0	0.93	0.79	0.14	1.29	0.00	0.50

MLB predictions Tue, Oct 13

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