MLB predictions Tue, Oct 27

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. Methodology →

1 game on this slate · 31–20 last 30 days →

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Updated 1h ago

Tue, Oct 27 · 8:00 PM ET

Brewers

43.4% 3.9

Rays

56.6% 4.6

World Series · G4 · MIL leads 2-0

Projected total 8.5

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Yandy Díaz	0.10	1.20	1.70	0.48	0.38	0.09	0.69	0.01
Junior Caminero	0.16	1.02	1.70	0.61	0.45	0.04	0.90	0.05
Jackson Chourio	0.15	0.98	1.64	0.48	0.28	0.02	1.25	0.10
William Contreras	0.13	0.99	1.57	0.54	0.33	0.03	0.78	0.03
Jonathan Aranda	0.12	0.93	1.49	0.53	0.53	0.11	1.20	0.01
Victor Mesa	0.13	0.86	1.42	0.52	0.37	0.03	0.88	0.03
Jake Bauers	0.14	0.78	1.40	0.43	0.61	0.04	1.45	0.11
Liam Hicks	0.09	0.92	1.36	0.52	0.51	0.12	0.52	0.02
Jonny Deluca	0.08	0.86	1.30	0.43	0.20	0.01	0.89	0.14
Luis Lara	0.09	0.85	1.29	0.37	0.30	0.03	0.88	–
Cooper Pratt	0.08	0.86	1.28	0.41	0.33	0.03	0.85	–
Richie Palacios	0.09	0.79	1.24	0.43	0.45	0.06	0.72	0.12
Christian Yelich	0.10	0.76	1.24	0.39	0.34	0.03	1.28	0.09
Brice Turang	0.08	0.78	1.21	0.32	0.55	0.01	1.34	0.15
Chandler Simpson	0.01	0.97	1.21	0.40	0.21	0.00	0.39	0.23
Garrett Mitchell	0.09	0.73	1.19	0.41	0.41	0.03	1.56	0.15
David Hamilton	0.07	0.66	1.01	0.34	0.27	0.02	0.94	0.19
Taylor Walls	0.04	0.64	0.95	0.31	0.45	0.02	0.94	0.15

	Workload	Results
Griffin Jax	100%	4.29	18.2	5.3	1.86	3.68	0.07	1.82
Dustin May	100%	4.50	19.8	3.8	1.92	4.66	0.32	2.31
Garrett Cleavinger	20%	0.99	4.3	1.4	0.57	0.77	0.08	0.40
Ian Seymour	66%	0.97	4.0	1.2	0.30	0.81	0.04	0.40
Bryan Baker	39%	0.99	4.1	1.2	0.44	0.71	0.03	0.36
Tyler Wells	44%	0.98	3.9	1.2	0.29	0.73	0.02	0.40
Cam Booser	97%	0.88	3.6	1.1	0.28	0.69	0.02	0.40
Freddy Peralta	21%	1.00	4.3	1.0	0.50	0.81	0.06	0.44
Kyle Harrison	30%	0.93	4.1	1.0	0.34	0.96	0.06	0.53
Cole Sulser	70%	0.96	4.1	0.9	0.40	0.90	0.03	0.50
Aaron Ashby	92%	0.88	3.9	0.9	0.39	0.88	0.03	0.53
Kevin Kelly	96%	0.87	3.5	0.9	0.20	0.71	0.03	0.37
Dl Hall	63%	0.96	4.0	0.9	0.49	0.71	0.05	0.40
Steven Matz	71%	0.97	4.0	0.9	0.30	0.82	0.04	0.36
Shane Drohan	27%	0.95	4.2	0.9	0.38	0.96	0.04	0.54
Trevor Megill	32%	0.97	3.8	0.8	0.29	0.66	0.03	0.28
Jojo Romero	58%	0.95	3.9	0.8	0.30	0.76	0.06	0.34
Abner Uribe	92%	0.86	3.7	0.8	0.41	0.75	0.04	0.47
Antonio Senzatela	55%	0.95	4.2	0.6	0.38	1.12	0.04	0.66

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-4%	-1%	-5%	-1%	+4%
Umpire				0%	0%
Home field (TB batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	MIL	TB	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Projected
K%	22.8%	17.3%	22.5%
BB%	9.8%	8.5%	8.1%
HR%	2.6%	2.5%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	D. May	G. Jax
K%	22.9%	25.8%	22.5%
BB%	8.3%	7.3%	8.1%
HR%	3.0%	2.8%	3.1%
Innings	5.1	4.6
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	0%	+1%
BB%	0%	-1%

HR watch

Junior Caminero0.16 HR
Jackson Chourio0.15 HR
Jake Bauers0.14 HR
Victor Mesa0.13 HR
William Contreras0.13 HR

Batters

Rank by


MIL @ TB	0.14	0.78	1.40	0.43	0.61	0.11	0.04	1.45
MIL @ TB	0.12	0.93	1.49	0.53	0.53	0.01	0.11	1.20
MIL @ TB	0.16	1.02	1.70	0.61	0.45	0.05	0.04	0.90
MIL @ TB	0.15	0.98	1.64	0.48	0.28	0.10	0.02	1.25
MIL @ TB	0.10	1.20	1.70	0.48	0.38	0.01	0.09	0.69
MIL @ TB	0.09	0.73	1.19	0.41	0.41	0.15	0.03	1.56
MIL @ TB	0.08	0.78	1.21	0.32	0.55	0.15	0.01	1.34
MIL @ TB	0.13	0.99	1.57	0.54	0.33	0.03	0.03	0.78
MIL @ TB	0.13	0.86	1.42	0.52	0.37	0.03	0.03	0.88
MIL @ TB	0.10	0.76	1.24	0.39	0.34	0.09	0.03	1.28
MIL @ TB	0.09	0.92	1.36	0.52	0.51	0.02	0.12	0.52
MIL @ TB	0.08	0.86	1.30	0.43	0.20	0.14	0.01	0.89
MIL @ TB	0.09	0.79	1.24	0.43	0.45	0.12	0.06	0.72
MIL @ TB	0.08	0.86	1.28	0.41	0.33	–	0.03	0.85
MIL @ TB	0.09	0.85	1.29	0.37	0.30	–	0.03	0.88
MIL @ TB	0.04	0.64	0.95	0.31	0.45	0.15	0.02	0.94
MIL @ TB	0.07	0.66	1.01	0.34	0.27	0.19	0.02	0.94
MIL @ TB	0.01	0.97	1.21	0.40	0.21	0.23	0.00	0.39

Pitchers

Rank by


MIL @ TB	100.0%	4.50	3.8	1.92	4.66	0.32	2.31	19.8
MIL @ TB	100.0%	4.29	5.3	1.86	3.68	0.07	1.82	18.2
MIL @ TB	96.8%	0.88	1.1	0.28	0.69	0.02	0.40	3.6
MIL @ TB	96.4%	0.87	0.9	0.20	0.71	0.03	0.37	3.5
MIL @ TB	92.3%	0.88	0.9	0.39	0.88	0.03	0.53	3.9
MIL @ TB	92.3%	0.86	0.8	0.41	0.75	0.04	0.47	3.7
MIL @ TB	70.6%	0.97	0.9	0.30	0.82	0.04	0.36	4.0
MIL @ TB	69.8%	0.96	0.9	0.40	0.90	0.03	0.50	4.1
MIL @ TB	66.2%	0.97	1.2	0.30	0.81	0.04	0.40	4.0
MIL @ TB	62.7%	0.96	0.9	0.49	0.71	0.05	0.40	4.0
MIL @ TB	57.8%	0.95	0.8	0.30	0.76	0.06	0.34	3.9
MIL @ TB	55.4%	0.95	0.6	0.38	1.12	0.04	0.66	4.2
MIL @ TB	43.6%	0.98	1.2	0.29	0.73	0.02	0.40	3.9
MIL @ TB	38.8%	0.99	1.2	0.44	0.71	0.03	0.36	4.1
MIL @ TB	31.7%	0.97	0.8	0.29	0.66	0.03	0.28	3.8
MIL @ TB	29.8%	0.93	1.0	0.34	0.96	0.06	0.53	4.1
MIL @ TB	27.4%	0.95	0.9	0.38	0.96	0.04	0.54	4.2
MIL @ TB	20.6%	1.00	1.0	0.50	0.81	0.06	0.44	4.3
MIL @ TB	19.6%	0.99	1.4	0.57	0.77	0.08	0.40	4.3

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Junior Caminero	MIL @ TB	7.0	1.70	0.61	0.45	0.05	0.04
2	Jonathan Aranda	MIL @ TB	6.6	1.49	0.53	0.53	0.01	0.11
3	Yandy Díaz	MIL @ TB	6.6	1.70	0.48	0.38	0.01	0.09
4	Jake Bauers	MIL @ TB	6.6	1.40	0.43	0.61	0.11	0.04
5	Jackson Chourio	MIL @ TB	6.4	1.64	0.48	0.28	0.10	0.02
6	Liam Hicks	MIL @ TB	6.2	1.36	0.52	0.51	0.02	0.12
7	William Contreras	MIL @ TB	6.2	1.57	0.54	0.33	0.03	0.03
8	Richie Palacios	MIL @ TB	5.9	1.24	0.43	0.45	0.12	0.06
9	Victor Mesa	MIL @ TB	5.9	1.42	0.52	0.37	0.03	0.03
10	Brice Turang	MIL @ TB	5.8	1.21	0.32	0.55	0.15	0.01
11	Garrett Mitchell	MIL @ TB	5.6	1.19	0.41	0.41	0.15	0.03
12	Chandler Simpson	MIL @ TB	5.4	1.21	0.40	0.21	0.23	0.00
13	Jonny Deluca	MIL @ TB	5.3	1.30	0.43	0.20	0.14	0.01
14	Christian Yelich	MIL @ TB	5.3	1.24	0.39	0.34	0.09	0.03
15	Cooper Pratt	MIL @ TB	5.0	1.28	0.41	0.33	–	0.03
16	Luis Lara	MIL @ TB	4.9	1.29	0.37	0.30	–	0.03
17	Taylor Walls	MIL @ TB	4.9	0.95	0.31	0.45	0.15	0.02
18	David Hamilton	MIL @ TB	4.8	1.01	0.34	0.27	0.19	0.02

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Griffin Jax	MIL @ TB	15.9	4.29	5.25	1.86	3.68	0.07	1.82
2	Dustin May	MIL @ TB	8.9	4.50	3.75	1.92	4.66	0.32	2.31
3	Cam Booser	MIL @ TB	3.3	0.88	1.10	0.28	0.69	0.02	0.40
4	Kevin Kelly	MIL @ TB	2.8	0.87	0.89	0.20	0.71	0.03	0.37
5	Ian Seymour	MIL @ TB	2.6	0.97	1.23	0.30	0.81	0.04	0.40
6	Steven Matz	MIL @ TB	2.0	0.97	0.86	0.30	0.82	0.04	0.36
7	Aaron Ashby	MIL @ TB	1.9	0.88	0.90	0.39	0.88	0.03	0.53
8	Abner Uribe	MIL @ TB	1.8	0.86	0.76	0.41	0.75	0.04	0.47
9	Cole Sulser	MIL @ TB	1.8	0.96	0.95	0.40	0.90	0.03	0.50
10	Tyler Wells	MIL @ TB	1.7	0.98	1.16	0.29	0.73	0.02	0.40
11	Dl Hall	MIL @ TB	1.7	0.96	0.86	0.49	0.71	0.05	0.40
12	Bryan Baker	MIL @ TB	1.6	0.99	1.23	0.44	0.71	0.03	0.36
13	Jojo Romero	MIL @ TB	1.6	0.95	0.78	0.30	0.76	0.06	0.34
14	Trevor Megill	MIL @ TB	1.0	0.97	0.83	0.29	0.66	0.03	0.28
15	Garrett Cleavinger	MIL @ TB	0.8	0.99	1.35	0.57	0.77	0.08	0.40
16	Kyle Harrison	MIL @ TB	0.7	0.93	0.97	0.34	0.96	0.06	0.53
17	Freddy Peralta	MIL @ TB	0.6	1.00	1.05	0.50	0.81	0.06	0.44
18	Shane Drohan	MIL @ TB	0.6	0.95	0.86	0.38	0.96	0.04	0.54
19	Antonio Senzatela	MIL @ TB	0.4	0.95	0.60	0.38	1.12	0.04	0.66

MLB predictions Tue, Oct 27

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