MLB predictions Sat, Oct 10

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. How it works →

1 game on this slate · model went 1–0 · 140–96 last 30 days →

‹ ›

Updated 1d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Sat, Oct 10

White Sox

0 33.7% · proj 3.4

Guardians

2 66.3% · proj 5.1

ALDS Game 5 · tied 2-2

ModelClose

CLE win 66.3% 56.5%

Total 8.5 7.0

First line CLE -143 ✓ Won

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
José Ramírez	0.15	1.09	1.85	0.64	0.60	0.03	0.57	0.26
Jo Adell	0.17	1.01	1.75	0.70	0.28	0.13	1.14	0.09
Chase Delauter	0.12	1.04	1.67	0.61	0.56	0.03	0.76	–
Sam Antonacci	0.10	1.02	1.59	0.31	0.32	0.15	1.09	–
Petey Halpin	0.11	0.92	1.47	0.51	0.28	0.05	0.76	0.05
Nathaniel Lowe	0.12	0.84	1.42	0.57	0.51	0.02	1.09	0.01
Miguel Vargas	0.15	0.79	1.42	0.45	0.60	0.05	1.20	0.04
Tristan Peters	0.11	0.83	1.37	0.44	0.31	0.07	1.14	–
Patrick Bailey	0.10	0.83	1.34	0.47	0.39	0.02	1.07	0.01
Steven Kwan	0.05	0.99	1.33	0.37	0.69	0.05	0.50	0.09
Travis Bazzana	0.09	0.79	1.27	0.46	0.51	0.06	0.90	–
Andrew Benintendi	0.11	0.75	1.27	0.46	0.37	0.02	1.33	0.02
Brayan Rocchio	0.08	0.79	1.21	0.39	0.32	0.06	0.63	0.08
Kyle Teel	0.12	0.61	1.11	0.33	0.54	0.07	1.91	0.03
Munetaka Murakami	0.12	0.57	1.08	0.38	0.59	0.04	1.96	–
Chase Meidroth	0.07	0.69	1.01	0.35	0.35	0.05	1.26	0.06
Colson Montgomery	0.10	0.52	0.96	0.31	0.30	0.05	1.70	0.01
Brenton Doyle	0.08	0.58	0.95	0.28	0.19	0.01	1.56	0.08

	Workload	Results
Gavin Williams	100%	5.6	22.9	8.8	2.16	3.83	0.27	1.79
Sean Burke	100%	5.0	22.2	4.5	2.54	4.88	0.24	2.72
Cade Smith	38%	1.0	3.9	1.7	0.37	0.63	0.05	0.33
Erik Sabrowski	34%	0.9	3.8	1.6	0.51	0.54	0.07	0.40
Daniel Espino	32%	0.9	3.8	1.5	0.41	0.70	0.05	0.44
Joey Cantillo	25%	0.9	4.1	1.3	0.47	0.78	0.04	0.44
Tim Herrin	67%	0.9	3.9	1.2	0.48	0.72	0.10	0.47
Shawn Armstrong	18%	1.0	4.3	1.2	0.51	0.83	0.09	0.62
Matt Festa	72%	0.9	3.8	1.1	0.34	0.85	0.08	0.53
Grant Taylor	24%	1.0	4.1	1.1	0.46	0.88	0.04	0.40
Foster Griffin	10%	0.9	3.7	1.1	0.25	0.70	0.06	0.26
Hunter Gaddis	74%	0.9	3.6	1.1	0.31	0.68	0.06	0.40
Tanner Bibee	7%	1.0	4.4	1.0	0.47	1.08	0.03	0.83
Hagen Smith	36%	0.9	3.9	0.9	0.42	0.79	0.03	0.41
Jordan Hicks	68%	0.9	4.3	0.9	0.66	0.99	0.06	0.68
Austin Hedges	11%	1.0	4.0	0.9	0.31	0.80	0.04	0.57
Bryan Hudson	70%	0.9	4.1	0.8	0.32	0.96	0.07	0.56
David Sandlin	12%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.30	0.91	0.02	0.50
Tyler Davis	30%	0.9	4.1	0.7	0.51	0.92	0.01	0.62
Sean Newcomb	78%	0.9	3.8	0.7	0.34	0.94	0.05	0.57
Noah Schultz	38%	0.9	4.1	0.7	0.46	0.90	0.08	0.54
Davis Martin	20%	0.9	4.4	0.7	0.51	1.20	0.08	0.79
Anthony Kay	9%	0.9	3.9	0.6	0.29	0.79	0.10	0.29
Erick Fedde	10%	0.9	4.0	0.5	0.42	0.88	0.05	0.52

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	0%	+1%	-2%	+3%	+5%
Weather	0%	+3%	0%	-1%	0%
Umpire				-3%	+2%
Home field (CLE batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	CWS	CLE	League
Hitters
Lineup	Confirmed	Confirmed
K%	25.9%	18.3%	22.5%
BB%	9.7%	8.5%	8.1%
HR%	2.9%	2.7%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	S. Burke	G. Williams
K%	25.5%	32.0%	22.5%
BB%	9.2%	8.3%	8.1%
HR%	3.3%	2.7%	3.1%
Innings	5.5	5.9
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	-3%	+4%
BB%	+3%	-5%

HR watch

Jo Adell0.17 HR
José Ramírez0.15 HR
Miguel Vargas0.15 HR
Kyle Teel0.12 HR
Munetaka Murakami0.12 HR

Batters

Rank by


CWS @ CLE	0.17	1.01	1.75	0.70	0.28	0.09	0.13	1.14
CWS @ CLE	0.15	1.09	1.85	0.64	0.60	0.26	0.03	0.57
CWS @ CLE	0.12	1.04	1.67	0.61	0.56	–	0.03	0.76
CWS @ CLE	0.12	0.57	1.08	0.38	0.59	–	0.04	1.96
CWS @ CLE	0.12	0.61	1.11	0.33	0.54	0.03	0.07	1.91
CWS @ CLE	0.15	0.79	1.42	0.45	0.60	0.04	0.05	1.20
CWS @ CLE	0.10	1.02	1.59	0.31	0.32	–	0.15	1.09
CWS @ CLE	0.12	0.84	1.42	0.57	0.51	0.01	0.02	1.09
CWS @ CLE	0.11	0.75	1.27	0.46	0.37	0.02	0.02	1.33
CWS @ CLE	0.11	0.83	1.37	0.44	0.31	–	0.07	1.14
CWS @ CLE	0.10	0.83	1.34	0.47	0.39	0.01	0.02	1.07
CWS @ CLE	0.11	0.92	1.47	0.51	0.28	0.05	0.05	0.76
CWS @ CLE	0.09	0.79	1.27	0.46	0.51	–	0.06	0.90
CWS @ CLE	0.05	0.99	1.33	0.37	0.69	0.09	0.05	0.50
CWS @ CLE	0.10	0.52	0.96	0.31	0.30	0.01	0.05	1.70
CWS @ CLE	0.07	0.69	1.01	0.35	0.35	0.06	0.05	1.26
CWS @ CLE	0.08	0.58	0.95	0.28	0.19	0.08	0.01	1.56
CWS @ CLE	0.08	0.79	1.21	0.39	0.32	0.08	0.06	0.63

Pitchers

Rank by


CWS @ CLE	100.0%	5.6	8.8	2.16	3.83	0.27	1.79	22.9
CWS @ CLE	100.0%	5.0	4.5	2.54	4.88	0.24	2.72	22.2
CWS @ CLE	78.3%	0.9	0.7	0.34	0.94	0.05	0.57	3.8
CWS @ CLE	74.3%	0.9	1.1	0.31	0.68	0.06	0.40	3.6
CWS @ CLE	72.5%	0.9	1.1	0.34	0.85	0.08	0.53	3.8
CWS @ CLE	70.1%	0.9	0.8	0.32	0.96	0.07	0.56	4.1
CWS @ CLE	67.8%	0.9	0.9	0.66	0.99	0.06	0.68	4.3
CWS @ CLE	67.2%	0.9	1.2	0.48	0.72	0.10	0.47	3.9
CWS @ CLE	37.9%	0.9	0.7	0.46	0.90	0.08	0.54	4.1
CWS @ CLE	37.7%	1.0	1.7	0.37	0.63	0.05	0.33	3.9
CWS @ CLE	35.7%	0.9	0.9	0.42	0.79	0.03	0.41	3.9
CWS @ CLE	34.2%	0.9	1.6	0.51	0.54	0.07	0.40	3.8
CWS @ CLE	31.6%	0.9	1.5	0.41	0.70	0.05	0.44	3.8
CWS @ CLE	30.5%	0.9	0.7	0.51	0.92	0.01	0.62	4.1
CWS @ CLE	25.0%	0.9	1.3	0.47	0.78	0.04	0.44	4.1
CWS @ CLE	24.1%	1.0	1.1	0.46	0.88	0.04	0.40	4.1
CWS @ CLE	19.9%	0.9	0.7	0.51	1.20	0.08	0.79	4.4
CWS @ CLE	18.0%	1.0	1.2	0.51	0.83	0.09	0.62	4.3
CWS @ CLE	12.1%	0.9	0.8	0.30	0.91	0.02	0.50	4.0
CWS @ CLE	11.2%	1.0	0.9	0.31	0.80	0.04	0.57	4.0
CWS @ CLE	10.1%	0.9	0.5	0.42	0.88	0.05	0.52	4.0
CWS @ CLE	10.1%	0.9	1.1	0.25	0.70	0.06	0.26	3.7
CWS @ CLE	9.4%	0.9	0.6	0.29	0.79	0.10	0.29	3.9
CWS @ CLE	6.6%	1.0	1.0	0.47	1.08	0.03	0.83	4.4

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	José Ramírez	CWS @ CLE	8.8	1.85	0.64	0.60	0.26	0.03
2	Jo Adell	CWS @ CLE	7.3	1.75	0.70	0.28	0.09	0.13
3	Chase Delauter	CWS @ CLE	7.0	1.67	0.61	0.56	–	0.03
4	Steven Kwan	CWS @ CLE	6.4	1.33	0.37	0.69	0.09	0.05
5	Miguel Vargas	CWS @ CLE	6.4	1.42	0.45	0.60	0.04	0.05
6	Nathaniel Lowe	CWS @ CLE	6.2	1.42	0.57	0.51	0.01	0.02
7	Sam Antonacci	CWS @ CLE	5.9	1.59	0.31	0.32	–	0.15
8	Petey Halpin	CWS @ CLE	5.8	1.47	0.51	0.28	0.05	0.05
9	Travis Bazzana	CWS @ CLE	5.7	1.27	0.46	0.51	–	0.06
10	Patrick Bailey	CWS @ CLE	5.5	1.34	0.47	0.39	0.01	0.02
11	Tristan Peters	CWS @ CLE	5.4	1.37	0.44	0.31	–	0.07
12	Andrew Benintendi	CWS @ CLE	5.3	1.27	0.46	0.37	0.02	0.02
13	Brayan Rocchio	CWS @ CLE	5.2	1.21	0.39	0.32	0.08	0.06
14	Kyle Teel	CWS @ CLE	5.2	1.11	0.33	0.54	0.03	0.07
15	Munetaka Murakami	CWS @ CLE	5.2	1.08	0.38	0.59	–	0.04
16	Chase Meidroth	CWS @ CLE	4.6	1.01	0.35	0.35	0.06	0.05
17	Colson Montgomery	CWS @ CLE	4.0	0.96	0.31	0.30	0.01	0.05
18	Brenton Doyle	CWS @ CLE	3.9	0.95	0.28	0.19	0.08	0.01

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Gavin Williams	CWS @ CLE	29.7	5.65	8.75	2.16	3.83	0.27	1.79
2	Sean Burke	CWS @ CLE	10.5	4.98	4.55	2.54	4.88	0.24	2.72
3	Hunter Gaddis	CWS @ CLE	2.4	0.89	1.07	0.31	0.68	0.06	0.40
4	Tim Herrin	CWS @ CLE	2.2	0.90	1.23	0.48	0.72	0.10	0.47
5	Cade Smith	CWS @ CLE	2.1	0.97	1.67	0.37	0.63	0.05	0.33
6	Matt Festa	CWS @ CLE	2.0	0.87	1.13	0.34	0.85	0.08	0.53
7	Erik Sabrowski	CWS @ CLE	1.7	0.92	1.58	0.51	0.54	0.07	0.40
8	Daniel Espino	CWS @ CLE	1.4	0.93	1.47	0.41	0.70	0.05	0.44
9	Bryan Hudson	CWS @ CLE	1.3	0.92	0.83	0.32	0.96	0.07	0.56
10	Sean Newcomb	CWS @ CLE	1.0	0.87	0.71	0.34	0.94	0.05	0.57
11	Hagen Smith	CWS @ CLE	1.0	0.91	0.94	0.42	0.79	0.03	0.41
12	Joey Cantillo	CWS @ CLE	0.9	0.94	1.32	0.47	0.78	0.04	0.44
13	Jordan Hicks	CWS @ CLE	0.8	0.90	0.91	0.66	0.99	0.06	0.68
14	Grant Taylor	CWS @ CLE	0.8	0.95	1.11	0.46	0.88	0.04	0.40
15	Noah Schultz	CWS @ CLE	0.5	0.91	0.70	0.46	0.90	0.08	0.54
16	Shawn Armstrong	CWS @ CLE	0.5	0.98	1.20	0.51	0.83	0.09	0.62
17	Foster Griffin	CWS @ CLE	0.4	0.92	1.11	0.25	0.70	0.06	0.26
18	Tyler Davis	CWS @ CLE	0.3	0.90	0.71	0.51	0.92	0.01	0.62
19	Austin Hedges	CWS @ CLE	0.3	0.95	0.88	0.31	0.80	0.04	0.57
20	David Sandlin	CWS @ CLE	0.2	0.92	0.79	0.30	0.91	0.02	0.50
21	Anthony Kay	CWS @ CLE	0.2	0.93	0.62	0.29	0.79	0.10	0.29
22	Tanner Bibee	CWS @ CLE	0.1	0.98	0.98	0.47	1.08	0.03	0.83
23	Erick Fedde	CWS @ CLE	0.1	0.91	0.48	0.42	0.88	0.05	0.52
24	Davis Martin	CWS @ CLE	0.0	0.93	0.66	0.51	1.20	0.08	0.79

MLB predictions Sat, Oct 10

Player props

Batters

Pitchers

Game conditions

Matchup

Against the first line

Model vs market

HR watch

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Games

Batters

Pitchers

Game conditions

Matchup

Against the first line

Model vs market

Players

HR watch

Batters

Pitchers

Fantasy

Batters

Pitchers