MLB predictions Thu, Oct 8

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. How it works →

1 game on this slate · model went 1–0 · 140–96 last 30 days →

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Updated 3d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Thu, Oct 8

Guardians

9 60.1% · proj 4.5

White Sox

5 39.9% · proj 3.5

ALDS Game 4 · CWS leads 2-1

Projected total 8.0

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Randal Grichuk	0.15	0.95	1.68	0.43	0.19	0.02	1.05	0.01
Jo Adell	0.15	1.00	1.65	0.66	0.28	0.10	1.17	0.09
José Ramírez	0.11	1.05	1.62	0.49	0.63	0.03	0.70	0.27
Chase Delauter	0.12	1.03	1.62	0.63	0.59	0.02	0.80	–
Miguel Vargas	0.17	0.82	1.52	0.45	0.57	0.04	0.86	0.04
Angel Martínez	0.11	0.85	1.39	0.49	0.20	0.05	1.09	0.05
Nathaniel Lowe	0.11	0.83	1.33	0.52	0.47	0.02	1.23	0.01
Chase Meidroth	0.09	0.88	1.30	0.29	0.39	0.04	1.13	0.07
Steven Kwan	0.04	0.99	1.27	0.33	0.69	0.04	0.58	0.09
Tommy Pham	0.11	0.75	1.24	0.40	0.38	0.01	1.14	0.05
Brayan Rocchio	0.09	0.80	1.20	0.37	0.28	0.08	0.66	0.07
Travis Bazzana	0.09	0.77	1.19	0.38	0.46	0.04	0.94	–
Patrick Bailey	0.09	0.76	1.17	0.39	0.39	0.02	1.09	0.01
Braden Montgomery	0.07	0.74	1.15	0.30	0.30	0.02	0.78	–
Munetaka Murakami	0.12	0.57	1.06	0.36	0.53	0.03	1.60	–
Brenton Doyle	0.07	0.69	1.05	0.33	0.20	0.01	1.36	0.10
Colson Montgomery	0.08	0.50	0.85	0.29	0.22	0.06	1.42	0.00
Kyle Teel	0.08	0.48	0.79	0.27	0.38	0.10	1.48	0.02

	Workload	Results
Parker Messick	100%	5.7	23.1	6.8	1.79	4.27	0.16	1.94
Hagen Smith	100%	4.9	20.7	5.0	2.19	4.13	0.17	1.98
Cade Smith	36%	0.9	3.8	1.5	0.30	0.69	0.05	0.34
Erik Sabrowski	77%	0.9	3.7	1.5	0.57	0.60	0.04	0.41
Daniel Espino	35%	0.9	3.8	1.3	0.40	0.66	0.04	0.30
Joey Cantillo	9%	0.9	3.8	1.2	0.45	0.78	0.03	0.51
Matt Festa	68%	0.9	3.7	1.2	0.32	0.69	0.07	0.41
Tim Herrin	47%	0.9	3.7	1.1	0.49	0.59	0.07	0.35
Hunter Gaddis	58%	0.9	3.8	1.1	0.37	0.70	0.04	0.38
Grant Taylor	37%	1.0	4.4	1.0	0.47	0.98	0.02	0.56
Foster Griffin	4%	0.9	3.7	1.0	0.43	0.60	0.00	0.26
Shawn Armstrong	10%	0.9	4.2	1.0	0.53	0.81	0.04	0.41
Sean Burke	34%	0.9	4.2	0.9	0.44	0.94	0.02	0.62
David Sandlin	6%	1.0	4.2	0.8	0.40	0.80	0.02	0.38
Jordan Hicks	92%	0.8	3.8	0.8	0.53	0.82	0.07	0.54
Tyler Davis	36%	1.0	4.3	0.8	0.45	1.02	0.04	0.66
Bryan Hudson	78%	0.9	4.1	0.7	0.33	0.94	0.06	0.53
Sean Newcomb	78%	1.0	4.1	0.7	0.37	0.91	0.07	0.49
Luisangel Acuña	13%	1.0	4.4	0.7	0.45	1.15	0.04	0.69
Davis Martin	8%	1.0	4.5	0.7	0.39	1.19	0.06	0.81
Austin Hedges	8%	0.9	4.0	0.6	0.52	0.87	0.06	0.55
Noah Schultz	14%	1.0	4.2	0.6	0.35	0.94	0.09	0.49
Anthony Kay	33%	1.0	4.2	0.6	0.34	0.96	0.08	0.55
Erick Fedde	42%	0.9	4.1	0.5	0.45	0.92	0.03	0.55

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	+3%	-7%	-3%	-4%	-2%
Weather	0%	-2%	-3%	-1%	+1%
Umpire				0%	0%
Home field (CWS batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	CLE	CWS	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Confirmed
K%	18.6%	27.0%	22.5%
BB%	8.2%	9.8%	8.1%
HR%	2.7%	3.0%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	P. Messick	H. Smith
K%	25.2%	31.9%	22.5%
BB%	6.1%	10.5%	8.1%
HR%	3.1%	2.9%	3.1%
Innings	6.0	5.2
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	+4%	-3%
BB%	-5%	+3%

HR watch

Miguel Vargas0.17 HR
Randal Grichuk0.15 HR
Jo Adell0.15 HR
Chase Delauter0.12 HR
Munetaka Murakami0.12 HR

Batters

Rank by


CLE @ CWS	0.15	1.00	1.65	0.66	0.28	0.09	0.10	1.17
CLE @ CWS	0.11	1.05	1.62	0.49	0.63	0.27	0.03	0.70
CLE @ CWS	0.12	1.03	1.62	0.63	0.59	–	0.02	0.80
CLE @ CWS	0.11	0.83	1.33	0.52	0.47	0.01	0.02	1.23
CLE @ CWS	0.15	0.95	1.68	0.43	0.19	0.01	0.02	1.05
CLE @ CWS	0.17	0.82	1.52	0.45	0.57	0.04	0.04	0.86
CLE @ CWS	0.12	0.57	1.06	0.36	0.53	–	0.03	1.60
CLE @ CWS	0.11	0.85	1.39	0.49	0.20	0.05	0.05	1.09
CLE @ CWS	0.09	0.88	1.30	0.29	0.39	0.07	0.04	1.13
CLE @ CWS	0.11	0.75	1.24	0.40	0.38	0.05	0.01	1.14
CLE @ CWS	0.04	0.99	1.27	0.33	0.69	0.09	0.04	0.58
CLE @ CWS	0.09	0.76	1.17	0.39	0.39	0.01	0.02	1.09
CLE @ CWS	0.09	0.77	1.19	0.38	0.46	–	0.04	0.94
CLE @ CWS	0.07	0.69	1.05	0.33	0.20	0.10	0.01	1.36
CLE @ CWS	0.08	0.48	0.79	0.27	0.38	0.02	0.10	1.48
CLE @ CWS	0.09	0.80	1.20	0.37	0.28	0.07	0.08	0.66
CLE @ CWS	0.08	0.50	0.85	0.29	0.22	0.00	0.06	1.42
CLE @ CWS	0.07	0.74	1.15	0.30	0.30	–	0.02	0.78

Pitchers

Rank by


CLE @ CWS	100.0%	5.7	6.8	1.79	4.27	0.16	1.94	23.1
CLE @ CWS	100.0%	4.9	5.0	2.19	4.13	0.17	1.98	20.7
CLE @ CWS	92.3%	0.8	0.8	0.53	0.82	0.07	0.54	3.8
CLE @ CWS	77.9%	1.0	0.7	0.37	0.91	0.07	0.49	4.1
CLE @ CWS	77.5%	0.9	0.7	0.33	0.94	0.06	0.53	4.1
CLE @ CWS	76.9%	0.9	1.5	0.57	0.60	0.04	0.41	3.7
CLE @ CWS	68.0%	0.9	1.2	0.32	0.69	0.07	0.41	3.7
CLE @ CWS	57.8%	0.9	1.1	0.37	0.70	0.04	0.38	3.8
CLE @ CWS	47.1%	0.9	1.1	0.49	0.59	0.07	0.35	3.7
CLE @ CWS	42.5%	0.9	0.5	0.45	0.92	0.03	0.55	4.1
CLE @ CWS	36.6%	1.0	1.0	0.47	0.98	0.02	0.56	4.4
CLE @ CWS	35.6%	0.9	1.5	0.30	0.69	0.05	0.34	3.8
CLE @ CWS	35.5%	1.0	0.8	0.45	1.02	0.04	0.66	4.3
CLE @ CWS	34.6%	0.9	1.3	0.40	0.66	0.04	0.30	3.8
CLE @ CWS	33.9%	0.9	0.9	0.44	0.94	0.02	0.62	4.2
CLE @ CWS	33.2%	1.0	0.6	0.34	0.96	0.08	0.55	4.2
CLE @ CWS	14.0%	1.0	0.6	0.35	0.94	0.09	0.49	4.2
CLE @ CWS	12.8%	1.0	0.7	0.45	1.15	0.04	0.69	4.4
CLE @ CWS	10.4%	0.9	1.0	0.53	0.81	0.04	0.41	4.2
CLE @ CWS	8.6%	0.9	1.2	0.45	0.78	0.03	0.51	3.8
CLE @ CWS	8.0%	1.0	0.7	0.39	1.19	0.06	0.81	4.5
CLE @ CWS	7.7%	0.9	0.6	0.52	0.87	0.06	0.55	4.0
CLE @ CWS	6.0%	1.0	0.8	0.40	0.80	0.02	0.38	4.2
CLE @ CWS	3.5%	0.9	1.0	0.43	0.60	0.00	0.26	3.7

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	José Ramírez	CLE @ CWS	8.0	1.62	0.49	0.63	0.27	0.03
2	Chase Delauter	CLE @ CWS	7.0	1.62	0.63	0.59	–	0.02
3	Jo Adell	CLE @ CWS	6.9	1.65	0.66	0.28	0.09	0.10
4	Miguel Vargas	CLE @ CWS	6.5	1.52	0.45	0.57	0.04	0.04
5	Steven Kwan	CLE @ CWS	6.2	1.27	0.33	0.69	0.09	0.04
6	Randal Grichuk	CLE @ CWS	5.8	1.68	0.43	0.19	0.01	0.02
7	Nathaniel Lowe	CLE @ CWS	5.7	1.33	0.52	0.47	0.01	0.02
8	Angel Martínez	CLE @ CWS	5.4	1.39	0.49	0.20	0.05	0.05
9	Chase Meidroth	CLE @ CWS	5.3	1.30	0.29	0.39	0.07	0.04
10	Tommy Pham	CLE @ CWS	5.2	1.24	0.40	0.38	0.05	0.01
11	Travis Bazzana	CLE @ CWS	5.1	1.19	0.38	0.46	–	0.04
12	Brayan Rocchio	CLE @ CWS	5.0	1.20	0.37	0.28	0.07	0.08
13	Patrick Bailey	CLE @ CWS	4.9	1.17	0.39	0.39	0.01	0.02
14	Munetaka Murakami	CLE @ CWS	4.9	1.06	0.36	0.53	–	0.03
15	Braden Montgomery	CLE @ CWS	4.4	1.15	0.30	0.30	–	0.02
16	Brenton Doyle	CLE @ CWS	4.3	1.05	0.33	0.20	0.10	0.01
17	Kyle Teel	CLE @ CWS	3.9	0.79	0.27	0.38	0.02	0.10
18	Colson Montgomery	CLE @ CWS	3.5	0.85	0.29	0.22	0.00	0.06

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Parker Messick	CLE @ CWS	23.8	5.73	6.83	1.79	4.27	0.16	1.94
2	Hagen Smith	CLE @ CWS	15.3	4.86	5.03	2.19	4.13	0.17	1.98
3	Erik Sabrowski	CLE @ CWS	3.3	0.86	1.49	0.57	0.60	0.04	0.41
4	Matt Festa	CLE @ CWS	2.4	0.88	1.17	0.32	0.69	0.07	0.41
5	Hunter Gaddis	CLE @ CWS	2.0	0.92	1.08	0.37	0.70	0.04	0.38
6	Cade Smith	CLE @ CWS	1.8	0.94	1.52	0.30	0.69	0.05	0.34
7	Tim Herrin	CLE @ CWS	1.6	0.89	1.08	0.49	0.59	0.07	0.35
8	Daniel Espino	CLE @ CWS	1.5	0.93	1.33	0.40	0.66	0.04	0.30
9	Sean Newcomb	CLE @ CWS	1.4	0.95	0.73	0.37	0.91	0.07	0.49
10	Jordan Hicks	CLE @ CWS	1.4	0.83	0.81	0.53	0.82	0.07	0.54
11	Bryan Hudson	CLE @ CWS	1.3	0.95	0.73	0.33	0.94	0.06	0.53
12	Grant Taylor	CLE @ CWS	0.9	0.99	1.01	0.47	0.98	0.02	0.56
13	Sean Burke	CLE @ CWS	0.6	0.95	0.88	0.44	0.94	0.02	0.62
14	Tyler Davis	CLE @ CWS	0.4	0.96	0.76	0.45	1.02	0.04	0.66
15	Anthony Kay	CLE @ CWS	0.4	0.96	0.62	0.34	0.96	0.08	0.55
16	Erick Fedde	CLE @ CWS	0.4	0.95	0.55	0.45	0.92	0.03	0.55
17	Shawn Armstrong	CLE @ CWS	0.3	0.95	0.97	0.53	0.81	0.04	0.41
18	Joey Cantillo	CLE @ CWS	0.3	0.90	1.21	0.45	0.78	0.03	0.51
19	Noah Schultz	CLE @ CWS	0.2	0.96	0.62	0.35	0.94	0.09	0.49
20	David Sandlin	CLE @ CWS	0.2	0.98	0.83	0.40	0.80	0.02	0.38
21	Foster Griffin	CLE @ CWS	0.1	0.92	1.00	0.43	0.60	0.00	0.26
22	Luisangel Acuña	CLE @ CWS	0.1	0.97	0.68	0.45	1.15	0.04	0.69
23	Austin Hedges	CLE @ CWS	0.1	0.89	0.64	0.52	0.87	0.06	0.55
24	Davis Martin	CLE @ CWS	0.0	0.98	0.68	0.39	1.19	0.06	0.81

MLB predictions Thu, Oct 8

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