MLB predictions Sun, Oct 11

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. How it works →

1 game on this slate · model went 0–1 · 140–96 last 30 days →

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Updated 22h ago

✗ Favorite lost Final · Sun, Oct 11

Dodgers

1 50.6% · proj 3.8

Brewers

2 49.4% · proj 3.7

NLCS Game 1

ModelClose

LAD win 50.6% 50.6%

Total 7.5 6.0

First line LAD -107 ✗ Lost

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Mookie Betts	0.16	0.95	1.61	0.38	0.40	0.02	0.90	0.06
William Contreras	0.14	0.98	1.60	0.46	0.35	0.02	0.88	0.03
Jackson Chourio	0.15	0.90	1.54	0.41	0.30	0.01	1.36	0.10
Freddie Freeman	0.13	0.89	1.46	0.38	0.49	0.04	1.31	0.05
Shohei Ohtani	0.16	0.74	1.44	0.46	0.56	0.05	1.66	0.13
Will Smith	0.14	0.85	1.42	0.42	0.49	0.07	1.20	0.02
Gary Sánchez	0.14	0.71	1.32	0.44	0.47	0.05	1.17	0.00
Luis Lara	0.09	0.81	1.29	0.36	0.27	0.02	1.05	–
Cooper Pratt	0.08	0.80	1.22	0.36	0.31	0.03	0.94	–
Andy Pages	0.11	0.71	1.19	0.38	0.30	0.06	1.20	0.05
Max Muncy	0.14	0.59	1.15	0.37	0.49	0.04	1.54	0.02
Teoscar Hernández	0.11	0.69	1.14	0.41	0.31	0.03	1.71	0.04
Kyle Tucker	0.10	0.66	1.13	0.37	0.48	0.02	0.97	0.10
Jake Bauers	0.12	0.61	1.12	0.36	0.44	0.04	1.52	0.08
Joey Ortiz	0.08	0.69	1.09	0.31	0.23	0.01	0.92	0.06
Brice Turang	0.06	0.71	1.05	0.27	0.41	0.01	1.48	0.13
Garrett Mitchell	0.07	0.57	0.96	0.29	0.28	0.04	1.43	0.11
Enrique Hernández	0.08	0.57	0.93	0.31	0.20	0.01	1.36	0.01

	Workload	Results
Jacob Misiorowski	100%	5.6	22.7	8.3	2.10	3.87	0.23	1.85
Tarik Skubal	100%	5.9	23.7	7.6	1.65	4.64	0.14	2.02
Edwin Díaz	34%	0.9	4.2	1.3	0.61	0.91	0.05	0.62
Tanner Scott	31%	0.9	3.8	1.2	0.34	0.74	0.03	0.33
Aaron Ashby	74%	0.9	3.8	1.2	0.46	0.75	0.03	0.45
Trevor Megill	38%	1.0	4.0	1.2	0.37	0.77	0.02	0.42
Abner Uribe	47%	0.9	3.9	1.1	0.48	0.72	0.03	0.38
Alex Vesia	76%	0.8	3.7	1.1	0.57	0.62	0.02	0.45
Kris Bubic	11%	0.9	4.1	1.1	0.56	0.75	0.00	0.35
Edgardo Henriquez	36%	0.9	4.0	1.1	0.48	0.73	0.06	0.46
Kyle Harrison	10%	1.0	4.3	1.1	0.46	0.97	0.00	0.53
Shane Drohan	8%	1.0	4.1	1.1	0.36	0.93	0.02	0.55
Evan Phillips	73%	0.9	3.6	1.1	0.32	0.73	0.02	0.41
Andrew Vaughn	3%	1.0	3.9	1.0	0.47	0.66	0.03	0.38
Brock Stewart	39%	0.9	4.0	1.0	0.56	0.74	0.03	0.45
Dl Hall	73%	0.9	3.8	1.0	0.55	0.68	0.03	0.46
Roki Sasaki	8%	0.9	4.1	0.9	0.51	0.88	0.05	0.48
Jojo Romero	45%	0.9	3.9	0.9	0.38	0.76	0.04	0.41
Justin Wrobleski	11%	0.9	3.9	0.8	0.36	0.78	0.02	0.39
Chad Patrick	20%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.48	0.79	0.05	0.58
Antonio Senzatela	74%	0.9	3.9	0.8	0.46	0.91	0.03	0.56
Enrique Hernández	3%	0.9	4.5	0.5	0.63	1.23	0.00	0.63

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	-8%	-5%	+8%	+3%	+9%
Weather	0%	0%	-1%	-1%	+1%
Umpire				+4%	-2%
Home field (MIL batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	LAD	MIL	League
Hitters
Lineup	Confirmed	Projected
K%	21.1%	22.0%	22.5%
BB%	9.7%	10.3%	8.1%
HR%	3.3%	2.7%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	T. Skubal	J. Misiorowski
K%	29.9%	35.9%	22.5%
BB%	4.6%	7.2%	8.1%
HR%	2.8%	2.8%	3.1%
Innings	6.3	5.7
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	-2%	+2%
BB%	+3%	-2%

HR watch

Shohei Ohtani0.16 HR
Mookie Betts0.16 HR
Jackson Chourio0.15 HR
Gary Sánchez0.14 HR
William Contreras0.14 HR

Batters

Rank by


LAD @ MIL	0.16	0.74	1.44	0.46	0.56	0.13	0.05	1.66
LAD @ MIL	0.15	0.90	1.54	0.41	0.30	0.10	0.01	1.36
LAD @ MIL	0.13	0.89	1.46	0.38	0.49	0.05	0.04	1.31
LAD @ MIL	0.14	0.85	1.42	0.42	0.49	0.02	0.07	1.20
LAD @ MIL	0.16	0.95	1.61	0.38	0.40	0.06	0.02	0.90
LAD @ MIL	0.14	0.98	1.60	0.46	0.35	0.03	0.02	0.88
LAD @ MIL	0.11	0.69	1.14	0.41	0.31	0.04	0.03	1.71
LAD @ MIL	0.14	0.59	1.15	0.37	0.49	0.02	0.04	1.54
LAD @ MIL	0.14	0.71	1.32	0.44	0.47	0.00	0.05	1.17
LAD @ MIL	0.12	0.61	1.12	0.36	0.44	0.08	0.04	1.52
LAD @ MIL	0.06	0.71	1.05	0.27	0.41	0.13	0.01	1.48
LAD @ MIL	0.11	0.71	1.19	0.38	0.30	0.05	0.06	1.20
LAD @ MIL	0.09	0.81	1.29	0.36	0.27	–	0.02	1.05
LAD @ MIL	0.10	0.66	1.13	0.37	0.48	0.10	0.02	0.97
LAD @ MIL	0.07	0.57	0.96	0.29	0.28	0.11	0.04	1.43
LAD @ MIL	0.08	0.80	1.22	0.36	0.31	–	0.03	0.94
LAD @ MIL	0.08	0.57	0.93	0.31	0.20	0.01	0.01	1.36
LAD @ MIL	0.08	0.69	1.09	0.31	0.23	0.06	0.01	0.92

Pitchers

Rank by


LAD @ MIL	100.0%	5.9	7.6	1.65	4.64	0.14	2.02	23.7
LAD @ MIL	100.0%	5.6	8.3	2.10	3.87	0.23	1.85	22.7
LAD @ MIL	76.2%	0.8	1.1	0.57	0.62	0.02	0.45	3.7
LAD @ MIL	73.6%	0.9	0.8	0.46	0.91	0.03	0.56	3.9
LAD @ MIL	73.5%	0.9	1.2	0.46	0.75	0.03	0.45	3.8
LAD @ MIL	73.4%	0.9	1.1	0.32	0.73	0.02	0.41	3.6
LAD @ MIL	72.9%	0.9	1.0	0.55	0.68	0.03	0.46	3.8
LAD @ MIL	47.0%	0.9	1.1	0.48	0.72	0.03	0.38	3.9
LAD @ MIL	45.2%	0.9	0.9	0.38	0.76	0.04	0.41	3.9
LAD @ MIL	38.6%	0.9	1.0	0.56	0.74	0.03	0.45	4.0
LAD @ MIL	38.3%	1.0	1.2	0.37	0.77	0.02	0.42	4.0
LAD @ MIL	35.7%	0.9	1.1	0.48	0.73	0.06	0.46	4.0
LAD @ MIL	34.5%	0.9	1.3	0.61	0.91	0.05	0.62	4.2
LAD @ MIL	31.2%	0.9	1.2	0.34	0.74	0.03	0.33	3.8
LAD @ MIL	19.7%	0.9	0.8	0.48	0.79	0.05	0.58	4.0
LAD @ MIL	11.4%	0.9	1.1	0.56	0.75	0.00	0.35	4.1
LAD @ MIL	11.1%	0.9	0.8	0.36	0.78	0.02	0.39	3.9
LAD @ MIL	10.0%	1.0	1.1	0.46	0.97	0.00	0.53	4.3
LAD @ MIL	8.3%	1.0	1.1	0.36	0.93	0.02	0.55	4.1
LAD @ MIL	8.2%	0.9	0.9	0.51	0.88	0.05	0.48	4.1
LAD @ MIL	3.2%	1.0	1.0	0.47	0.66	0.03	0.38	3.9
LAD @ MIL	3.0%	0.9	0.5	0.63	1.23	0.00	0.63	4.5

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Shohei Ohtani	LAD @ MIL	6.7	1.44	0.46	0.56	0.13	0.05
2	Mookie Betts	LAD @ MIL	6.2	1.61	0.38	0.40	0.06	0.02
3	William Contreras	LAD @ MIL	6.1	1.60	0.46	0.35	0.03	0.02
4	Freddie Freeman	LAD @ MIL	6.1	1.46	0.38	0.49	0.05	0.04
5	Will Smith	LAD @ MIL	6.0	1.42	0.42	0.49	0.02	0.07
6	Jackson Chourio	LAD @ MIL	6.0	1.54	0.41	0.30	0.10	0.01
7	Gary Sánchez	LAD @ MIL	5.6	1.32	0.44	0.47	0.00	0.05
8	Kyle Tucker	LAD @ MIL	5.4	1.13	0.37	0.48	0.10	0.02
9	Jake Bauers	LAD @ MIL	5.2	1.12	0.36	0.44	0.08	0.04
10	Max Muncy	LAD @ MIL	5.1	1.15	0.37	0.49	0.02	0.04
11	Andy Pages	LAD @ MIL	5.0	1.19	0.38	0.30	0.05	0.06
12	Brice Turang	LAD @ MIL	4.9	1.05	0.27	0.41	0.13	0.01
13	Luis Lara	LAD @ MIL	4.8	1.29	0.36	0.27	–	0.02
14	Teoscar Hernández	LAD @ MIL	4.8	1.14	0.41	0.31	0.04	0.03
15	Cooper Pratt	LAD @ MIL	4.8	1.22	0.36	0.31	–	0.03
16	Garrett Mitchell	LAD @ MIL	4.3	0.96	0.29	0.28	0.11	0.04
17	Joey Ortiz	LAD @ MIL	4.3	1.09	0.31	0.23	0.06	0.01
18	Enrique Hernández	LAD @ MIL	3.6	0.93	0.31	0.20	0.01	0.01

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Jacob Misiorowski	LAD @ MIL	28.1	5.63	8.29	2.10	3.87	0.23	1.85
2	Tarik Skubal	LAD @ MIL	26.0	5.89	7.58	1.65	4.64	0.14	2.02
3	Aaron Ashby	LAD @ MIL	2.4	0.89	1.20	0.46	0.75	0.03	0.45
4	Evan Phillips	LAD @ MIL	2.3	0.86	1.05	0.32	0.73	0.02	0.41
5	Alex Vesia	LAD @ MIL	2.2	0.84	1.11	0.57	0.62	0.02	0.45
6	Dl Hall	LAD @ MIL	1.9	0.89	0.98	0.55	0.68	0.03	0.46
7	Abner Uribe	LAD @ MIL	1.6	0.94	1.14	0.48	0.72	0.03	0.38
8	Trevor Megill	LAD @ MIL	1.4	0.97	1.15	0.37	0.77	0.02	0.42
9	Tanner Scott	LAD @ MIL	1.3	0.94	1.25	0.34	0.74	0.03	0.33
10	Jojo Romero	LAD @ MIL	1.3	0.92	0.94	0.38	0.76	0.04	0.41
11	Antonio Senzatela	LAD @ MIL	1.1	0.89	0.79	0.46	0.91	0.03	0.56
12	Edgardo Henriquez	LAD @ MIL	1.1	0.92	1.10	0.48	0.73	0.06	0.46
13	Brock Stewart	LAD @ MIL	1.0	0.91	0.99	0.56	0.74	0.03	0.45
14	Edwin Díaz	LAD @ MIL	1.0	0.91	1.34	0.61	0.91	0.05	0.62
15	Kris Bubic	LAD @ MIL	0.4	0.94	1.11	0.56	0.75	0.00	0.35
16	Chad Patrick	LAD @ MIL	0.3	0.94	0.79	0.48	0.79	0.05	0.58
17	Justin Wrobleski	LAD @ MIL	0.3	0.93	0.82	0.36	0.78	0.02	0.39
18	Kyle Harrison	LAD @ MIL	0.3	0.98	1.09	0.46	0.97	0.00	0.53
19	Shane Drohan	LAD @ MIL	0.2	0.96	1.08	0.36	0.93	0.02	0.55
20	Roki Sasaki	LAD @ MIL	0.2	0.94	0.94	0.51	0.88	0.05	0.48
21	Andrew Vaughn	LAD @ MIL	0.1	0.98	1.00	0.47	0.66	0.03	0.38
22	Enrique Hernández	LAD @ MIL	-0.0	0.92	0.50	0.63	1.23	0.00	0.63

MLB predictions Sun, Oct 11

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