The Forecast Card

College Football predictions Week 5, 2026

Win probabilities, projected scores, spreads and totals for every FBS game. FCS games are labeled and left out of the record. How it works →

59 games on this slate · model went 39–16 · 196–63 last 30 days →

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Updated 7h ago
✓ Favorite won
Western Kentucky
13 48.2% · proj 27.4
New Mexico State
34 51.8% · proj 28.2
Projected total 55.6
Projected spread New Mexico State -0.8
✓ Favorite won
North Texas
45 67.2% · proj 35.1
Tulsa
44 32.8% · proj 27.4
Projected total 62.5
Projected spread North Texas -7.7
✓ Favorite won
Pittsburgh
35 60.8% · proj 27.3
Virginia Tech
33 39.2% · proj 22.9
Projected total 50.2
Projected spread Pittsburgh -4.4
✓ Favorite won
Liberty
30 65.2% · proj 30.6
Delaware
14 34.8% · proj 24.2
Projected total 54.8
Projected spread Liberty -6.3
✗ Favorite lost
Penn State
13 70.3% · proj 26.9
Northwestern
34 29.7% · proj 18.6
Projected total 45.5
Projected spread Penn State -8.3
✓ Favorite won
Memphis
59 91.6% · proj 33.2
Charlotte
8 8.4% · proj 11.6
Projected total 44.8
Projected spread Memphis -21.6
✓ Favorite won
Alabama
56 69.1% · proj 32.8
Mississippi State
23 30.9% · proj 24.5
Projected total 57.3
Projected spread Alabama -8.3
✓ Favorite won
Middle Tennessee
0 11.0% · proj 17.1
Kansas
55 89.0% · proj 36.6
Projected total 53.7
Projected spread Kansas -19.5
✓ Favorite won
UCF
17 37.0% · proj 22.9
Houston
27 63.0% · proj 28.2
Projected total 51.1
Projected spread Houston -5.3
✓ Favorite won
West Virginia
42 18.5% · proj 19.5
Iowa State
45 81.5% · proj 34.3
Projected total 53.8
Projected spread Iowa State -14.8
✓ Favorite won
Boston College
16 15.6% · proj 17.7
SMU
25 84.4% · proj 34.5
Projected total 52.2
Projected spread SMU -16.8
✓ Favorite won
Notre Dame
37 92.7% · proj 34.3
North Carolina
26 7.3% · proj 11.8
Projected total 46.1
Projected spread Notre Dame -22.5
✓ Favorite won
Stanford
3 20.1% · proj 22.1
Wake Forest
57 79.9% · proj 36.0
Projected total 58.1
Projected spread Wake Forest -13.9
✓ Favorite won
Syracuse
42 51.8% · proj 24.9
UConn
41 48.2% · proj 24.2
Projected total 49.1
Projected spread Syracuse -0.7
✗ Favorite lost
Michigan
14 78.5% · proj 28.1
Minnesota
20 21.5% · proj 15.9
Projected total 44.0
Projected spread Michigan -12.2
✗ Favorite lost
Navy
9 54.0% · proj 28.3
Air Force
14 46.0% · proj 26.7
Projected total 55.0
Projected spread Navy -1.6
✓ Favorite won
Michigan State
3 22.6% · proj 13.8
Wisconsin
31 77.4% · proj 25.5
Projected total 39.3
Projected spread Wisconsin -11.6
✓ Favorite won
Vanderbilt
14 12.9% · proj 16.7
Georgia
38 87.1% · proj 34.4
Projected total 51.1
Projected spread Georgia -17.7
✓ Favorite won
Western Michigan
20 62.6% · proj 26.0
Buffalo
17 37.4% · proj 20.8
Projected total 46.8
Projected spread Western Michigan -5.2
✓ Favorite won
Toledo
39 94.7% · proj 37.6
Ball State
24 5.3% · proj 11.5
Projected total 49.1
Projected spread Toledo -26.1
✗ Favorite lost
Florida
17 50.4% · proj 25.8
Missouri
45 49.6% · proj 25.6
Projected total 51.4
Projected spread Florida -0.2
✓ Favorite won
Auburn
14 44.2% · proj 24.1
Tennessee
24 55.8% · proj 26.6
Projected total 50.7
Projected spread Tennessee -2.4
✓ Favorite won
California
31 37.1% · proj 21.6
UNLV
39 62.9% · proj 26.9
Projected total 48.5
Projected spread UNLV -5.3
✗ Favorite lost
Louisville
28 78.2% · proj 31.7
NC State
31 21.8% · proj 19.3
Projected total 51.0
Projected spread Louisville -12.4
✗ Favorite lost
Virginia
7 57.1% · proj 28.2
Florida State
38 42.9% · proj 25.3
Projected total 53.5
Projected spread Virginia -2.9
✓ Favorite won
Ohio State
31 81.8% · proj 27.5
Iowa
14 18.2% · proj 13.5
Projected total 41.0
Projected spread Ohio State -14.0
Not in record
Samford
14 3.4% · proj 13.0
UAB
33 96.6% · proj 42.2
Projected total 55.2
Projected spread UAB -29.2
Not in record
Wyoming
0 23.4% · proj 12.4
North Dakota State
28 76.6% · proj 23.8
Projected total 36.2
Projected spread North Dakota State -11.5
✓ Favorite won
Akron
17 21.5% · proj 17.8
Central Michigan
41 78.5% · proj 30.3
Projected total 48.1
Projected spread Central Michigan -12.4
✓ Favorite won
Eastern Michigan
38 55.2% · proj 28.2
Massachusetts
14 44.8% · proj 26.1
Projected total 54.3
Projected spread Eastern Michigan -2.1
✓ Favorite won
Ohio
13 78.1% · proj 33.1
Kent State
10 21.9% · proj 20.8
Projected total 53.9
Projected spread Ohio -12.3
✗ Favorite lost
Bowling Green
24 18.1% · proj 14.2
Miami (OH)
20 81.9% · proj 28.0
Projected total 42.2
Projected spread Miami (OH) -13.8
✗ Favorite lost
Old Dominion
10 60.9% · proj 28.1
Georgia State
42 39.1% · proj 23.5
Projected total 51.6
Projected spread Old Dominion -4.6
✓ Favorite won
Marshall
17 7.5% · proj 13.8
James Madison
45 92.5% · proj 37.6
Projected total 51.4
Projected spread James Madison -23.8
✓ Favorite won
Maryland
23 15.5% · proj 17.6
Nebraska
48 84.5% · proj 34.1
Projected total 51.7
Projected spread Nebraska -16.5
✓ Favorite won
UTEP
7 7.0% · proj 10.9
New Mexico
61 93.0% · proj 34.1
Projected total 45.0
Projected spread New Mexico -23.2
✗ Favorite lost
Kentucky
35 49.3% · proj 24.9
South Carolina
34 50.7% · proj 25.2
Projected total 50.1
Projected spread South Carolina -0.3
✗ Favorite lost
Purdue
24 21.0% · proj 24.2
Illinois
17 79.0% · proj 37.3
Projected total 61.5
Projected spread Illinois -13.1
✓ Favorite won
Oregon State
56 60.8% · proj 29.3
Colorado State
26 39.2% · proj 24.8
Projected total 54.1
Projected spread Oregon State -4.4
Not in record
Texas Southern
10 2.9% · proj 14.1
Florida Atlantic
66 97.1% · proj 44.6
Projected total 58.7
Projected spread Florida Atlantic -30.5
✓ Favorite won
Arkansas
7 32.2% · proj 21.2
Texas A&M
34 67.8% · proj 28.5
Projected total 49.7
Projected spread Texas A&M -7.3
✓ Favorite won
BYU
17 66.3% · proj 27.0
TCU
10 33.7% · proj 20.4
Projected total 47.4
Projected spread BYU -6.6
✓ Favorite won
UTSA
16 79.4% · proj 32.3
Rice
14 20.6% · proj 19.2
Projected total 51.5
Projected spread UTSA -13.1
✓ Favorite won
Georgia Southern
31 51.9% · proj 28.0
Coastal Carolina
24 48.1% · proj 27.2
Projected total 55.2
Projected spread Georgia Southern -0.8
✓ Favorite won
UL Monroe
35 19.4% · proj 20.8
South Alabama
52 80.6% · proj 34.6
Projected total 55.4
Projected spread South Alabama -13.8
✓ Favorite won
Texas Tech
29 82.1% · proj 32.1
Colorado
7 17.9% · proj 16.8
Projected total 48.9
Projected spread Texas Tech -15.3
✓ Favorite won
Miami
41 79.8% · proj 30.2
Clemson
13 20.2% · proj 16.7
Projected total 46.9
Projected spread Miami -13.5
✗ Favorite lost
Washington
21 54.9% · proj 27.5
USC
25 45.1% · proj 25.6
Projected total 53.1
Projected spread Washington -1.9
✓ Favorite won
Utah State
18 15.1% · proj 18.0
Boise State
37 84.9% · proj 35.1
Projected total 53.1
Projected spread Boise State -17.1
✗ Favorite lost
Temple
17 22.3% · proj 22.0
South Florida
13 77.7% · proj 34.4
Projected total 56.4
Projected spread South Florida -12.4
✗ Favorite lost
Army
29 54.4% · proj 23.7
Louisiana Tech
31 45.6% · proj 22.0
Projected total 45.7
Projected spread Army -1.7
Not in record
McNeese
14 0.1% · proj 3.0
LSU
63 99.9% · proj 49.4
Projected total 52.4
Projected spread LSU -46.4
✓ Favorite won
Indiana
47 94.7% · proj 37.3
Rutgers
15 5.3% · proj 12.4
Projected total 49.7
Projected spread Indiana -24.9
✓ Favorite won
Arkansas State
20 26.7% · proj 19.1
Louisiana
23 73.3% · proj 29.2
Projected total 48.3
Projected spread Louisiana -10.1
✗ Favorite lost
Fresno State
26 35.8% · proj 17.8
Washington State
6 64.2% · proj 23.5
Projected total 41.3
Projected spread Washington State -5.7
✗ Favorite lost
Baylor
55 49.7% · proj 26.1
Arizona State
19 50.3% · proj 26.3
Projected total 52.4
Projected spread Arizona State -0.1
✗ Favorite lost
Texas State
29 64.7% · proj 31.9
San Diego State
31 35.3% · proj 25.5
Projected total 57.4
Projected spread Texas State -6.4
✓ Favorite won
Cincinnati
7 39.5% · proj 26.0
Arizona
34 60.5% · proj 30.3
Projected total 56.3
Projected spread Arizona -4.3
✓ Favorite won
San José State
20 63.3% · proj 29.2
Hawai'i
16 36.7% · proj 23.5
Projected total 52.7
Projected spread San José State -5.6