ATP Challenger

Model record

Every match since Oct 10, 2026, settled against the first moneyline we captured. Simulated 1 unit a game, not real bets.

4–2 on the moneyline · since Oct 27 (model V4)

66.7% hit rate · break-even 49.6% at the prices taken

+2.02 units at 1 a game · ROI +33.7%

2–2 when the model disagreed by 8+ win-% points · +0.2 units

6 settled 21 pending

6 settled games: the hit rate could be off by about ±38 points either way, far too few to separate skill from luck. The model takes the player it rates above the price, bookmaker margin removed. DraftKings first; pushes return the stake.

Recommended bet	Result	Units
Tue, Oct 27 →
Poling +186Poling 10, Dominko 13	✗ Lost	-1.00
Royer -204Royer 13, Legout 9	✓ Won	+0.49
Dedura-Palomero -213Olivieri 11, Dedura-Palomero 14	✓ Won	+0.47
Travaglia +176Herbert 19, Travaglia 20	✓ Won	+1.76
Jarry +109Dellien 12, Jarry 4	✗ Lost	-1.00
Krueger +130Andrade 3, Krueger 12	✓ Won	+1.30
Total · 4–2		+2.02

Moneyline