NFL predictions Week 7, 2026
Win probabilities, projected scores and totals for every NFL game, plus player stat lines. Methodology →
14 games on this slate · model went 8–5 · 43–29 last 30 days →
Games
Cowboys
Eagles
Set at line DAL -4.5 · model PHI -2.8 · before kickoff
Patriots
Bears
Set at line CHI -3.0 · model CHI -4.0 · before kickoff
Steelers
Saints
Set at line PIT -3.0 · model PIT -2.6 · before kickoff
Bengals
Ravens
Set at line CIN -3.0 · model BAL -2.7 · before kickoff
Browns
Titans
Set at line CLE -2.5 · model CLE -1.4 · before kickoff
Colts
Vikings
Set at line MIN -6.5 · model MIN -4.2 · before kickoff
Dolphins
Jets
Set at line NYJ -3.5 · model NYJ -4.6 · before kickoff
Giants
Texans
Set at line HOU -10.0 · model HOU -7.9 · before kickoff
49ers
Falcons
Set at line SF -2.5 · model SF -5.4 · before kickoff
Buccaneers
Panthers
Set at line CAR -3.0 · model CAR -2.7 · before kickoff
Broncos
Cardinals
Set at line DEN -4.5 · model DEN -6.2 · before kickoff
Packers
Lions
Set at line DET -3.5 · model DET -2.8 · before kickoff
Rams
Raiders
Set at line LA -3.5 · model LA -2.1 · before kickoff
Chiefs
Seahawks
Set at line SEA -3.0 · model SEA -3.4 · before kickoff
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Dak Prescott
|
35.5 | 23.5 | 258 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
|
Tanner McKee
|
32.2 | 20.4 | 233 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Javonte Williams
|
17.2 | 71.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 13.3 | 46% |
|
Dameon Pierce
|
11.6 | 48.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 17.1 | 30% |
|
Saquon Barkley
|
10.0 | 46.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 16.2 | 32% |
|
Tyler Goodson
|
2.1 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 8% |
|
Hunter Luepke
|
0.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 4% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
CeeDee Lamb
|
10.1 | 6.9 | 85.3 | 40% |
|
George Pickens
|
7.9 | 4.9 | 70.8 | 30% |
|
Makai Lemon
|
8.7 | 5.5 | 62.4 | 31% |
|
Ryan Flournoy
|
5.4 | 3.6 | 39.9 | 22% |
|
Darius Cooper
|
4.4 | 2.8 | 36.7 | 22% |
|
Marquise Brown
|
3.3 | 2.0 | 25.7 | 16% |
|
Elijah Moore
|
1.4 | 0.8 | 9.7 | 5% |
|
Jonathan Mingo
|
1.2 | 0.6 | 7.5 | 4% |
|
Britain Covey
|
0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Dallas Goedert
|
7.4 | 5.4 | 61.4 | 35% |
|
Jake Ferguson
|
3.5 | 2.6 | 22.7 | 16% |
|
Brevyn Spann-Ford
|
1.9 | 1.3 | 13.8 | 8% |
|
Johnny Mundt
|
1.1 | 0.8 | 7.8 | 5% |
|
Luke Schoonmaker
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 2% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
DAL
Emari DemercadoRBIsrael AbanikandaRBMalik DavisRBAnthony SmithWRJordan HudsonWRKaVontae TurpinWRParris CampbellWRDJ RogersTEJames MitchellTEMichael TriggTEPrinceton FantTE
PHI
Carson SteeleRBElijah MitchellRBIan WheelerRBJaydon BlueRBTank BigsbyRBWill ShipleyRBDeVonta SmithWRDontayvion WicksWRErik EzukanmaWRJohnny WilsonWRXavier GipsonWRE.J. JenkinsTEEli StowersTEGrant CalcaterraTEZach ErtzTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.8
- Special teams -0.4
- QB history +0.2
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings +1.0
- Scoring output +0.7
- QB history +0.9
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Model vs market
- Model
- PHI -2.8
- First line
- PHI -1.5
- Close
- DAL -4.5
- Model
- 57.4%
- First line
- 52.2%
- Close
- 35.5%
Moneyline PHI +170 / DAL -205 (vig removed)
- Model
- 46.8
- First line
- 47.5
- Close
- 43.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 10 captures, first 52.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of 10:49 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Drake Maye
|
30.0 | 20.0 | 233 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
|
Caleb Williams
|
30.3 | 18.7 | 204 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
D'Andre Swift
|
14.9 | 64.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 23.4 | 48% |
|
Rhamondre Stevenson
|
9.5 | 41.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 14.1 | 31% |
|
TreVeyon Henderson
|
7.1 | 32.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 26% |
|
Roschon Johnson
|
6.1 | 24.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 12.3 | 27% |
|
Corey Kiner
|
4.9 | 21.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 13% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
A.J. Brown
|
8.4 | 5.4 | 70.9 | 41% |
|
Luther Burden III
|
6.6 | 4.8 | 56.5 | 26% |
|
DeMario Douglas
|
6.3 | 4.2 | 48.2 | 23% |
|
Rome Odunze
|
5.4 | 2.9 | 41.7 | 21% |
|
Kalif Raymond
|
3.3 | 2.4 | 28.3 | 13% |
|
Efton Chism III
|
3.0 | 1.9 | 22.9 | 15% |
|
Kyle Williams
|
2.2 | 1.3 | 18.6 | 12% |
|
Zavion Thomas
|
1.1 | 0.8 | 8.5 | 6% |
|
Jahdae Walker
|
0.4 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 2% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Colston Loveland
|
5.6 | 3.9 | 42.9 | 25% |
|
Hunter Henry
|
4.4 | 3.0 | 34.2 | 24% |
|
Eli Raridon
|
2.6 | 1.8 | 19.9 | 12% |
|
Cole Kmet
|
1.8 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 9% |
|
Sam Roush
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 2% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
NE
Lan LarisonRBMyles MontgomeryRBReggie GilliamRBCameron DornerWRChandler BrayboyWRJeremiah WebbWRKyle DixonWRMack HollinsWRRomeo DoubsWRRyan MillerWRJulian HillTETanner ConnerTE
CHI
Brittain BrownRBKyle MonangaiRBSalvon AhmedRBZavier ScottRBJP RichardsonWRKaden DavisWRScott MillerWRSquirrel WhiteWRHayden LargeTENikola KalinicTEQadir IsmailTEStephen CarlsonTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings -1.5
- Special teams +0.3
- QB history +0.6
- Injuries +2.4
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings +0.9
- Scoring output 0.0
- QB history +1.0
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Patriots 24, Bears 30
- Result
- CHI won by 6, needed to win by 4+ (3 pushes)
- Why
- Model CHI -4.0, first line CHI -3.0: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- CHI -4.0
- First line
- CHI -1.5
- Close
- CHI -3.0
- Model
- 61.5%
- First line
- 52.6%
- Close
- 58.3%
Moneyline CHI -155 / NE +130 (vig removed)
- Model
- 46.0
- First line
- 48.5
- Close
- 50.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 9 captures, first 52.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Thu 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
32.8 | 21.6 | 237 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
|
Tyler Shough
|
30.7 | 20.1 | 207 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Jaylen Warren
|
12.4 | 58.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 27.7 | 31% |
|
Kendre Miller
|
11.4 | 45.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 31% |
|
Alvin Kamara
|
7.1 | 30.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 18.8 | 31% |
|
Rico Dowdle
|
6.4 | 28.4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 16.4 | 21% |
|
CJ Donaldson
|
4.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 14% |
|
Travis Homer
|
0.5 | 2.2 | – | – | – | 1% |
|
Lew Nichols III
|
0.3 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
DK Metcalf
|
8.9 | 5.3 | 71.2 | 41% |
|
Chris Olave
|
8.1 | 5.2 | 64.8 | 29% |
|
Germie Bernard
|
6.6 | 4.5 | 49.2 | 26% |
|
Devaughn Vele
|
6.2 | 4.2 | 45.5 | 26% |
|
Kaden Wetjen
|
3.6 | 2.2 | 27.0 | 15% |
|
Bryce Lance
|
3.3 | 1.8 | 21.8 | 14% |
|
Cedric Tillman
|
0.7 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 3% |
|
Brandon Johnson
|
0.4 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2% |
|
Barion Brown
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Juwan Johnson
|
4.4 | 3.1 | 34.1 | 23% |
|
Pat Freiermuth
|
4.1 | 3.0 | 31.8 | 22% |
|
Darnell Washington
|
3.5 | 2.5 | 27.0 | 14% |
|
Noah Fant
|
1.6 | 1.1 | 11.4 | 7% |
|
Oscar Delp
|
0.9 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 4% |
|
Robert Tonyan
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
PIT
Eli HeidenreichRBBen SkowronekWRCole BurgessWRIsaiah HodginsWRMarquez Valdes-ScantlingWRMax HurlemanWRMichael PittmanWRRoman WilsonWRLake McReeTE
NO
Jarquez HunterRBTravis EtienneRBTy ChandlerRBZamir WhiteRBJa'Lynn PolkWRJalen CropperWRJordyn TysonWRKevin Austin Jr.WRKyrese RowanWRMason TiptonWRMoliki MatavaoTEStone SmarttTETreyton WelchTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +1.1
- Team ratings -3.5
- Special teams -0.1
- QB history -0.1
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings -0.8
- Scoring output 0.0
- QB history +0.1
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Steelers 16, Saints 10
- Result
- NO lost by 6, could lose by up to 2 (3 pushes)
- Why
- Model PIT -2.6, first line PIT -3.0: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- PIT -2.6
- First line
- PIT -2.5
- Close
- PIT -3.0
- Model
- 57.7%
- First line
- 56.3%
- Close
- 59.3%
Moneyline NO +136 / PIT -162 (vig removed)
- Model
- 43.4
- First line
- 44.5
- Close
- 42.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 10 captures, first 56.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sat 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Joe Burrow
|
35.0 | 23.8 | 254 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
|
Tyler Huntley
|
26.6 | 17.8 | 175 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Derrick Henry
|
21.7 | 106 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 64% |
|
Chase Brown
|
12.3 | 50 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 26.1 | 40% |
|
Samaje Perine
|
5.7 | 23 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 11.5 | 17% |
|
Justice Hill
|
1.9 | 9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 13.1 | 12% |
|
Tahj Brooks
|
0.1 | 0 | – | – | 0.2 | 0% |
|
Rasheen Ali
|
0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Zay Flowers
|
8.4 | 5.8 | 76.2 | 32% |
|
Ja'Marr Chase
|
8.1 | 5.5 | 66.9 | 41% |
|
Tee Higgins
|
7.0 | 4.5 | 60.3 | 36% |
|
Ja'Kobi Lane
|
3.8 | 2.4 | 27.4 | 16% |
|
Rashod Bateman
|
3.0 | 1.8 | 23.8 | 14% |
|
Dohnte Meyers
|
3.0 | 2.0 | 23.0 | 13% |
|
Devontez Walker
|
1.6 | 1.0 | 12.8 | 9% |
|
Mitchell Tinsley
|
1.3 | 0.7 | 9.3 | 6% |
|
Colbie Young
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 2% |
|
LaJohntay Wester
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Mark Andrews
|
4.5 | 3.1 | 32.9 | 27% |
|
Jack Endries
|
3.0 | 2.1 | 22.2 | 13% |
|
Mike Gesicki
|
2.9 | 1.9 | 22.1 | 13% |
|
Josh Cuevas
|
1.8 | 1.3 | 13.6 | 8% |
|
Erick All
|
1.7 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 7% |
|
Matthew Hibner
|
1.0 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 5% |
|
Drew Sample
|
1.1 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 5% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
CIN
Kendall MiltonRBKentrel BullockRBAndrei IosivasWRJordan MooreWRKe'Shawn WilliamsWRNoah ThomasWRJosh KattusTETanner HudsonTE
BAL
Adam RandallRBJonathan WardRBLucas ScottRBChris MooreWRElijah SarrattWRGage LarvadainWRTy PezzaWRDurham SmytheTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +2.8
- Special teams -0.3
- QB historyBottom 6% -1.8
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratingsTop 6% +1.6
- Scoring output +2.5
- QB history -0.9
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bengals 35, Ravens 13
- Result
- BAL lost by 22, could lose by up to 2 (3 pushes)
- Why
- Model BAL -2.7, first line CIN -3.0: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- BAL -2.7
- First line
- BAL -3.5
- Close
- CIN -3.0
- Model
- 57.3%
- First line
- 63.1%
- Close
- 42.8%
Moneyline BAL +124 / CIN -148 (vig removed)
- Model
- 47.3
- First line
- 50.5
- Close
- 46.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 63.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Deshaun Watson
|
28.4 | 18.7 | 214 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
|
Cam Ward
|
28.1 | 17.2 | 163 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Tony Pollard
|
18.9 | 83.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 42% |
|
Quinshon Judkins
|
15.7 | 59.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 23.5 | 42% |
|
Michael Carter
|
5.4 | 22.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 16% |
|
Jaleel McLaughlin
|
3.4 | 15.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 10.4 | 14% |
|
Dylan Sampson
|
3.6 | 14.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 10.6 | 13% |
|
Kalel Mullings
|
0.6 | 2.7 | – | – | – | 2% |
|
Michael Burton
|
0.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 3% |
|
Julius Chestnut
|
– | 0.1 | – | – | – | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Carnell Tate
|
8.4 | 5.4 | 61.4 | 30% |
|
Wan'Dale Robinson
|
7.4 | 5.1 | 47.5 | 22% |
|
Denzel Boston
|
5.4 | 3.1 | 46.4 | 24% |
|
KC Concepcion
|
5.4 | 3.4 | 38.0 | 22% |
|
Jerry Jeudy
|
3.7 | 2.2 | 29.0 | 12% |
|
Elic Ayomanor
|
2.7 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 12% |
|
Isaiah Bond
|
1.6 | 0.8 | 12.4 | 6% |
|
Chimere Dike
|
1.4 | 0.9 | 9.4 | 6% |
|
K.J. Osborn
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 3% |
|
Tylan Wallace
|
0.4 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2% |
|
Malachi Corley
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Harold Fannin Jr.
|
4.2 | 2.8 | 30.1 | 20% |
|
Carsen Ryan
|
2.1 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 9% |
|
Daniel Bellinger
|
1.9 | 1.5 | 14.5 | 8% |
|
Gunnar Helm
|
1.5 | 1.2 | 10.3 | 6% |
|
Blake Whiteheart
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 3% |
|
David Martin-Robinson
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
CLE
Audric EstiméRBJaret PattersonRBRaheim SandersRBBub MeansWRJimmy Horn Jr.WRDevin CulpTEJoe RoyerTEJohn FitzPatrickTE
TEN
Nicholas SingletonRBTyjae SpearsRBCalvin RidleyWRTyren MontgomeryWRXavier RestrepoWRJaren KanakTEJoel WilsonTEKylen GransonTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings -2.7
- Special teams +0.1
- QB history -1.0
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratingsBottom 2% -2.8
- Scoring outputBottom 1% -4.7
- QB history +0.7
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Browns 27, Titans 24
- Result
- TEN lost by 3, could lose by up to 2
- Why
- Model CLE -1.4, first line CLE -2.5: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- CLE -1.4
- First line
- CLE -1.5
- Close
- CLE -2.5
- Model
- 53.4%
- First line
- 53.2%
- Close
- 54.3%
Moneyline TEN +110 / CLE -130 (vig removed)
- Model
- 37.4
- First line
- 37.5
- Close
- 36.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 53.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Kyler Murray
|
28.0 | 19.3 | 203 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
|
Daniel Jones
|
30.9 | 20.0 | 187 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Aaron Jones
|
15.8 | 76.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 24.0 | 49% |
|
Jonathan Taylor
|
15.7 | 70.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 19.6 | 55% |
|
Jordan Mason
|
7.1 | 34.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 21% |
|
Seth McGowan
|
3.1 | 12.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 10% |
|
DJ Giddens
|
1.8 | 7.0 | 0.1 | – | 0.3 | 5% |
|
DeeJay Dallas
|
0.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 3% |
|
Max Bredeson
est.
|
0.1 | 0.5 | – | – | – | 0% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Justin Jefferson
|
6.5 | 4.3 | 57.9 | 28% |
|
Keenan Allen
|
7.4 | 5.0 | 47.4 | 28% |
|
Jordan Addison
|
5.7 | 3.4 | 45.3 | 30% |
|
Josh Downs
|
6.2 | 4.1 | 40.7 | 22% |
|
Laquon Treadwell
|
4.0 | 2.5 | 27.3 | 14% |
|
Ashton Dulin
|
2.6 | 1.5 | 17.9 | 12% |
|
Jauan Jennings
|
1.8 | 1.1 | 13.7 | 10% |
|
Myles Price
|
1.7 | 1.1 | 12.3 | 8% |
|
Tai Felton
|
1.4 | 0.9 | 10.8 | 6% |
|
Deion Burks
|
1.2 | 0.7 | 8.1 | 6% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
T.J. Hockenson
|
4.8 | 3.3 | 35.4 | 19% |
|
Will Mallory
|
3.2 | 2.1 | 21.1 | 12% |
|
Gavin Bartholomew
|
1.9 | 1.4 | 14.3 | 8% |
|
Mo Alie-Cox
|
1.5 | 1.0 | 10.2 | 9% |
|
Pharaoh Brown
|
0.7 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 3% |
|
Andrew Ogletree
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 3% |
|
Ben Yurosek
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
IND
Davon BoothRBAlec PierceWRAnthony GouldWRD.J. MontgomeryWREli PancolWRMecole HardmanWRNick Westbrook-IkhineWRQuez WatkinsWRCarson TowtTETyler WarrenTE
MIN
C.J. HamRBDemond ClaiborneRBAdam ThielenWRDillon BellWRJeshaun JonesWRMichael BriscoeWROdell Beckham Jr.WRCam GrandyTEJosh OliverTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +2.4
- Special teams -0.4
- QB history +0.1
- League baseline 46.7
- Team ratingsBottom 5% -2.2
- Scoring output -0.8
- QB history +0.1
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Colts 10, Vikings 16
- Result
- IND lost by 6, could lose by up to 6
- Why
- Model MIN -4.2, first line MIN -6.5: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- MIN -4.2
- First line
- MIN -5.5
- Close
- MIN -6.5
- Model
- 62.6%
- First line
- 69.1%
- Close
- 74.1%
Moneyline MIN -340 / IND +270 (vig removed)
- Model
- 43.8
- First line
- 43.5
- Close
- 41.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 69.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Geno Smith
|
27.6 | 18.7 | 212 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
|
Malik Willis
|
26.5 | 16.8 | 199 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Braelon Allen
|
21.1 | 85.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 12.5 | 49% |
|
Ollie Gordon II
|
14.0 | 55.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 45% |
|
Jaylen Wright
|
6.6 | 25.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 15% |
|
Isaiah Davis
|
3.9 | 17.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 12% |
|
Kaytron Allen
|
4.0 | 16.4 | – | – | – | 11% |
|
Andrew Beck
|
– | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0% |
|
DJ Herman
|
– | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 2% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Garrett Wilson
|
7.1 | 4.3 | 55.4 | 25% |
|
Caleb Douglas
|
5.3 | 3.4 | 41.2 | 21% |
|
Malik Washington
|
6.1 | 4.1 | 40.6 | 24% |
|
Adonai Mitchell
|
5.1 | 2.5 | 36.9 | 16% |
|
Kevin Coleman Jr.
|
3.9 | 2.1 | 25.4 | 17% |
|
Omar Cooper Jr.
|
2.7 | 1.8 | 23.5 | 12% |
|
Chris Bell
|
2.7 | 1.5 | 19.2 | 12% |
|
Isaiah Williams
|
2.0 | 1.4 | 15.9 | 10% |
|
Tim Patrick
|
1.8 | 1.1 | 14.4 | 9% |
|
Jared Wayne
|
1.1 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 5% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Kenyon Sadiq
|
3.6 | 2.4 | 27.7 | 16% |
|
Mason Taylor
|
3.2 | 2.2 | 22.6 | 12% |
|
Greg Dulcich
|
2.9 | 1.9 | 22.0 | 11% |
|
Justin Joly
|
1.7 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 8% |
|
Seydou Traore
|
1.7 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 8% |
|
Will Kacmarek
|
1.4 | 0.9 | 10.2 | 6% |
|
Jelani Woods
|
0.8 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 4% |
|
Jeremy Ruckert
|
0.6 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 2% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
MIA
Carlos WashingtonRBDe'Von AchaneRBLe'Veon MossRBA.J. HenningWRJalen ReagorWRJalen TolbertWRWill SheppardWRCole TurnerTETre WatsonTE
NYJ
Al-Jay HendersonRBBreece HallRBChip TrayanumRBKene NwangwuRBArian SmithWRJamaal PritchettWRSterling ShepardWR
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.3
- Special teams +1.0
- QB history +1.2
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings -0.6
- Scoring outputBottom 10% -2.4
- QB history +0.2
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Dolphins 28, Jets 25
- Result
- NYJ lost by 3, needed to win by 4+
- Why
- Model NYJ -4.6, first line NYJ -3.5: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- NYJ -4.6
- First line
- NYJ -4.5
- Close
- NYJ -3.5
- Model
- 62.7%
- First line
- 65.7%
- Close
- 65.7%
Moneyline NYJ -218 / MIA +180 (vig removed)
- Model
- 41.2
- First line
- 38.5
- Close
- 39.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 65.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
C.J. Stroud
|
31.1 | 19.9 | 237 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
|
J.J. McCarthy
|
30.6 | 18.8 | 210 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Woody Marks
|
21.1 | 89.4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 17.2 | 44% |
|
Cam Skattebo
|
10.6 | 41.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 33% |
|
Devin Singletary
|
5.6 | 23.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 17% |
|
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
|
5.0 | 20.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 16% |
|
Dare Ogunbowale
|
0.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2% |
|
Patrick Ricard
|
– | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Malik Nabers
|
9.3 | 5.9 | 67.5 | 33% |
|
Nico Collins
|
5.8 | 3.7 | 54.7 | 27% |
|
Xavier Hutchinson
|
4.3 | 2.4 | 31.5 | 16% |
|
Jaylin Noel
|
3.2 | 2.3 | 29.7 | 16% |
|
Kayshon Boutte
|
3.3 | 2.1 | 28.2 | 16% |
|
Malachi Fields
|
4.0 | 2.3 | 27.7 | 17% |
|
Marvin Harrison Jr.
|
3.0 | 1.6 | 23.3 | 15% |
|
Darnell Mooney
|
2.9 | 1.6 | 20.2 | 11% |
|
Tank Dell
|
2.0 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 11% |
|
Jalin Hyatt
|
1.2 | 0.7 | 8.1 | 4% |
|
Charlie Jones
|
0.7 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 3% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Isaiah Likely
|
8.9 | 6.1 | 63.5 | 42% |
|
Dalton Schultz
|
4.4 | 3.1 | 32.7 | 18% |
|
Foster Moreau
|
2.0 | 1.4 | 15.3 | 13% |
|
Brevin Jordan
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 3% |
|
Cade Stover
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3% |
|
Chris Manhertz
|
– | – | 0.2 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
NYG
Grant FinleyRBNajee HarrisRBPhil MafahRBBraxton BerriosWRCalvin Austin IIIWRDalen CambreWRDontae FlemingWRGunner OlszewskiWRJason BrownleeWRTheo JohnsonTE
HOU
British BrooksRBDavid MontgomeryRBDeuce VaughnRBJawhar JordanRBNoah WhittingtonRBBryce OliverWRJayden HigginsWRJosh KellyWRLewis BondWRMarlin KleinTEZaire Mitchell-PadenTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +4.6
- Special teamsBottom 7% -1.4
- QB change -0.3
- QB history +0.5
- Injuries +2.4
- League baseline 46.7
- Team ratings -0.8
- Scoring output -0.6
- QB history +0.3
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Giants 27, Texans 21
- Result
- NYG won by 6, could lose by up to 9 (10 pushes)
- Why
- Model HOU -7.9, first line HOU -10.0: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- HOU -7.9
- First line
- HOU -7.0
- Close
- HOU -10.5
- Model
- 71.5%
- First line
- 74.8%
- Close
- 80.8%
Moneyline HOU -535 / NYG +400 (vig removed)
- Model
- 45.5
- First line
- 41.5
- Close
- 42.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 10 captures, first 74.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Brock Purdy
|
29.8 | 20.2 | 249 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
|
Michael Penix Jr.
|
29.9 | 18.9 | 227 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Bijan Robinson
|
18.0 | 84.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 32.1 | 52% |
|
Christian McCaffrey
|
14.5 | 62.9 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 45.7 | 57% |
|
Kaelon Black
|
8.2 | 32.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 20% |
|
Khalil Herbert
|
3.6 | 15.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 11% |
|
Jordan James
|
0.5 | 1.9 | – | – | – | 1% |
|
Kyle Juszczyk
|
– | – | 2.1 | 1.6 | 13.4 | 8% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Drake London
|
10.1 | 6.3 | 86.5 | 35% |
|
Jahan Dotson
|
4.6 | 2.6 | 35.6 | 21% |
|
Christian Kirk
|
4.2 | 2.7 | 31.2 | 17% |
|
Brandin Cooks
|
3.8 | 2.4 | 27.4 | 17% |
|
Zachariah Branch
|
2.0 | 1.4 | 14.9 | 9% |
|
Jacob Cowing
|
1.8 | 1.0 | 12.7 | 8% |
|
Jordan Watkins
|
1.4 | 0.9 | 11.0 | 6% |
|
Chris Blair
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
George Kittle
|
7.6 | 5.6 | 69.9 | 38% |
|
Kyle Pitts
|
5.3 | 3.4 | 41.0 | 20% |
|
Austin Hooper
|
1.3 | 0.9 | 9.9 | 6% |
|
Charlie Woerner
|
0.8 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 3% |
|
Luke Farrell
|
0.5 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 2% |
|
Brayden Willis
|
– | – | 0.1 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
SF
Isaac GuerendoRBSincere McCormickRBDe'Zhaun StriblingWRDeebo Samuel Sr.WRDemarcus RobinsonWRMalik TurnerWRMike EvansWRRicky PearsallWRWesley GrimesWRWill PaulingWRXavier SmithWRJack StollTEJake TongesTEKhalil DinkinsTE
ATL
Brian RobinsonRBJam MillerRBTrey SermonRBAntwane Wells Jr.WRBeaux CollinsWRDylan DrummondWROlamide ZaccheausWRVinny Anthony IIWRJack VellingTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings -6.1
- Special teamsBottom 3% -1.7
- QB history +0.3
- League baseline 46.7
- Team ratings +0.8
- Scoring output +1.3
- QB history +1.0
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- 49ers 20, Falcons 29
- Result
- SF lost by 9, needed to win by 3+
- Why
- Model SF -5.4, first line SF -2.5: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- SF -5.4
- First line
- SF -4.5
- Close
- SF -2.5
- Model
- 64.6%
- First line
- 65.7%
- Close
- 56.3%
Moneyline ATL +120 / SF -142 (vig removed)
- Model
- 49.8
- First line
- 49.5
- Close
- 49.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 65.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Baker Mayfield
|
30.9 | 20.1 | 229 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
|
Bryce Young
|
32.8 | 20.2 | 207 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Chuba Hubbard
|
19.7 | 78.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 13.2 | 47% |
|
Bucky Irving
|
15.4 | 69.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 19.4 | 39% |
|
Kenny Gainwell
|
2.9 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 18.4 | 18% |
|
Sean Tucker
|
2.1 | 9.2 | 0.1 | – | 0.3 | 9% |
|
Trevor Etienne
|
0.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Tetairoa McMillan
|
8.8 | 5.3 | 72.9 | 35% |
|
Jalen Coker
|
7.9 | 5.5 | 65.8 | 32% |
|
Chris Godwin Jr.
|
7.4 | 5.2 | 58.0 | 30% |
|
Ted Hurst III
|
4.8 | 2.8 | 35.9 | 20% |
|
Tez Johnson
|
2.8 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 15% |
|
David Sills
|
3.2 | 1.8 | 22.4 | 13% |
|
John Metchie III
|
3.3 | 2.1 | 22.2 | 13% |
|
Brycen Tremayne
|
1.4 | 1.0 | 11.3 | 6% |
|
David Moore
|
0.7 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 5% |
|
Kameron Johnson
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 2% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Cade Otton
|
5.0 | 3.4 | 35.5 | 18% |
|
Darren Waller
|
3.7 | 2.6 | 28.1 | 17% |
|
Tommy Tremble
|
3.3 | 2.3 | 23.1 | 17% |
|
Mitchell Evans
|
1.4 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 7% |
|
Payne Durham
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2% |
|
Bauer Sharp
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
TB
Josh WilliamsRBDean Patterson IVWREmeka EgbukaWREric Rivers Jr.WRGarrett GreeneWRJalen McMillanWRCJ DippreTE
CAR
AJ DillonRBAhmani MarshallRBJonathon BrooksRBCasey WashingtonWRChris Brazzell IIWRIhmir Smith-MarsetteWRJa'Seem ReedWRXavier LegetteWRJa'Tavion SandersTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.1
- Special teams +0.5
- QB change -0.1
- QB history +0.1
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings -0.3
- Scoring output -0.5
- QB history 0.0
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from. A questionable QB is blended with his backup by his chance to play.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13
- Result
- TB won by 30, could lose by up to 2 (3 pushes)
- Why
- Model CAR -2.7, first line CAR -3.0: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- CAR -2.7
- First line
- CAR -3.0
- Close
- CAR -3.0
- Model
- 58.3%
- First line
- 60.0%
- Close
- 60.0%
Moneyline CAR -166 / TB +140 (vig removed)
- Model
- 43.3
- First line
- 44.5
- Close
- 44.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 60.0%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Jacoby Brissett
|
32.6 | 20.9 | 202 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
|
Bo Nix
|
29.4 | 19.0 | 200 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
J.K. Dobbins
|
14.7 | 68.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 46% |
|
Tyler Allgeier
|
12.1 | 51.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 14.1 | 33% |
|
Bam Knight
|
6.7 | 27.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 20% |
|
RJ Harvey
|
5.5 | 21.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 28.3 | 32% |
|
Jonah Coleman
|
3.1 | 12.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 13% |
|
Evan Hull
|
1.8 | 7.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 5% |
|
Adam Prentice
|
0.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Jaylen Waddle
|
7.2 | 4.9 | 61.1 | 29% |
|
Michael Wilson
|
8.0 | 5.0 | 56.4 | 31% |
|
Kendrick Bourne
|
4.7 | 3.2 | 37.5 | 19% |
|
Courtland Sutton
|
4.7 | 2.7 | 36.2 | 20% |
|
Marvin Mims Jr.
|
3.1 | 2.1 | 23.3 | 15% |
|
Reggie Virgil
|
2.6 | 1.6 | 18.6 | 11% |
|
Jalen Brooks
|
2.1 | 1.1 | 14.4 | 8% |
|
Troy Franklin
|
1.6 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 8% |
|
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
|
1.2 | 0.8 | 8.7 | 6% |
|
Devin Duvernay
|
– | – | 0.2 | 0% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Trey McBride
|
9.4 | 7.0 | 64.6 | 32% |
|
Evan Engram
|
3.3 | 2.2 | 22.9 | 11% |
|
Elijah Higgins
|
2.2 | 1.7 | 16.7 | 10% |
|
Nate Adkins
|
0.5 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 3% |
|
Adam Trautman
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2% |
|
Teagan Quitoriano
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
DEN
Cody SchraderRBTyler BadieRBCameron RossWRDane KeyWRKolbe KatsisWRMichael BandyWRPat BryantWRCaleb LohnerTEDallen BentleyTELucas KrullTE
ARI
James ConnerRBJeremiyah LoveRBJerome FordRBTrey BensonRBHarrison Wallace IIIWRShedrick JacksonWRHunter LongTEJameson GeersTEKenny YeboahTEShawn BowmanTETip ReimanTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings -4.6
- Special teams -0.6
- QB history +0.1
- Injuries -3.3
- League baseline 46.7
- Team ratings -0.3
- Scoring output -0.4
- QB history +0.2
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Broncos 30, Cardinals 16
- Result
- DEN won by 14, needed to win by 5+
- Why
- Model DEN -6.2, first line DEN -4.5: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- DEN -6.2
- First line
- DEN -5.5
- Close
- DEN -4.5
- Model
- 67.8%
- First line
- 68.5%
- Close
- 66.9%
Moneyline ARI +190 / DEN -230 (vig removed)
- Model
- 46.2
- First line
- 45.5
- Close
- 43.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 9 captures, first 68.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Jordan Love
|
32.9 | 21.5 | 264 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
|
Jared Goff
|
32.6 | 22.2 | 253 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Jahmyr Gibbs
|
18.8 | 91.7 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 38.4 | 71% |
|
MarShawn Lloyd
|
7.6 | 30.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 13.1 | 27% |
|
Josh Jacobs
|
6.4 | 27.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 10.9 | 24% |
|
Pierre Strong
|
4.4 | 19.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 18.3 | 18% |
|
Sione Vaki
|
2.4 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 8% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Amon-Ra St. Brown
|
10.3 | 7.5 | 80.8 | 46% |
|
Matthew Golden
|
8.8 | 5.2 | 72.8 | 31% |
|
Christian Watson
|
7.3 | 4.3 | 71.1 | 40% |
|
Jameson Williams
|
4.9 | 3.0 | 44.9 | 24% |
|
Isaac TeSlaa
|
3.2 | 1.8 | 25.1 | 17% |
|
Bo Melton
|
1.6 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 7% |
|
Savion Williams
|
1.4 | 1.0 | 10.8 | 8% |
|
J. Michael Sturdivant
|
0.4 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2% |
|
Coleman Owen
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1% |
|
Tay Martin
|
0.1 | – | 0.6 | 0% |
|
DeAndre Carter
|
– | – | 0.2 | 0% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Tucker Kraft
|
5.9 | 4.2 | 50.8 | 31% |
|
Sam LaPorta
|
6.2 | 4.5 | 50.5 | 33% |
|
Brock Wright
|
1.4 | 1.0 | 9.7 | 9% |
|
Jonnu Smith
|
0.7 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 4% |
|
Mark Redman
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2% |
|
Josh Whyle
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1% |
|
Tyler Conklin
|
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
GB
Chris BrooksRBDamon BankstonRBKaleb JohnsonRBIsaiah NeyorWRJayden ReedWRQuincy Skinner Jr.WRSkyy MooreWRDrake DabneyTELuke MusgraveTEThomas YassminTE
DET
Isiah PachecoRBJabari SmallRBDominic LovettWRKendrick LawWRLawrence KeysWRLucky JacksonWRTom KennedyWRJackson MeeksTEMiles KitselmanTEThomas GordonTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.1
- Special teams +0.9
- QB history -0.4
- League baseline 46.7
- Team ratingsTop 2% +2.1
- Scoring outputTop 8% +2.7
- QB history +0.5
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Packers 17, Lions 20
- Result
- GB lost by 3, could lose by up to 3
- Why
- Model DET -2.8, first line DET -3.5: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- DET -2.8
- First line
- DET -3.0
- Close
- DET -3.5
- Model
- 58.3%
- First line
- 62.2%
- Close
- 61.6%
Moneyline DET -180 / GB +150 (vig removed)
- Model
- 52.0
- First line
- 52.5
- Close
- 55.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 62.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Matthew Stafford
|
34.3 | 22.5 | 264 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
|
Kirk Cousins
|
33.1 | 22.0 | 240 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Kyren Williams
|
11.9 | 51.9 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 31.2 | 50% |
|
Ashton Jeanty
|
12.9 | 48.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 30.6 | 39% |
|
Blake Corum
|
6.8 | 29.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 10.8 | 22% |
|
Mike Washington Jr.
|
5.8 | 24.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 18% |
|
Dylan Laube
|
1.4 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 7% |
|
Connor Heyward
|
0.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Puka Nacua
|
11.2 | 8.0 | 101 | 40% |
|
Tre Tucker
|
5.6 | 3.4 | 44 | 26% |
|
CJ Daniels
|
3.2 | 2.0 | 24 | 14% |
|
Jalen Nailor
|
2.7 | 1.6 | 21 | 15% |
|
Cody White
|
2.4 | 1.5 | 19 | 13% |
|
Konata Mumpfield
|
2.7 | 1.4 | 19 | 12% |
|
Tutu Atwell
|
1.2 | 0.7 | 10 | 4% |
|
Malik Benson
|
1.4 | 0.8 | 10 | 6% |
|
Jordan Whittington
|
0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 2% |
|
Dareke Young
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1% |
|
Alex Bachman
|
0.1 | – | 0 | 0% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Brock Bowers
|
8.3 | 5.9 | 64.9 | 34% |
|
Michael Mayer
|
5.2 | 3.6 | 36.8 | 18% |
|
Tyler Higbee
|
4.0 | 2.8 | 30.3 | 17% |
|
Colby Parkinson
|
3.4 | 2.4 | 24.1 | 18% |
|
Davis Allen
|
1.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 6% |
|
Ian Thomas
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 2% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
LA
Jordan WatersRBRonnie RiversRBBrennan PresleyWRDavante AdamsWRDan VillariTEMax KlareTETerrance FergusonTE
LV
Chris CollierRBOwen WrightRBRoman HembyRBCorey RuckerWRDeven ThompkinsWRDont'e Thornton Jr.WRJack BechWRJamari ThrashWRPhillip DorsettWRTyler ScottWRCarter RunyonTEPatrick GurdTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratingsBottom 5% -8.7
- Special teams +0.4
- QB history +0.8
- Injuries +3.3
- League baseline 46.7
- Team ratings -0.6
- Scoring output +1.1
- QB history +1.0
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Rams 35, Raiders 21
- Result
- LV lost by 14, could lose by up to 3
- Why
- Model LA -2.1, first line LA -3.5: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- LA -2.1
- First line
- LA -7.0
- Close
- LA -3.5
- Model
- 55.4%
- First line
- 72.2%
- Close
- 61.6%
Moneyline LV +150 / LA -180 (vig removed)
- Model
- 48.1
- First line
- 48.5
- Close
- 48.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 11 captures, first 72.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Player props
Quarterbacks
| Passing | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||
|
Sam Darnold
|
30.1 | 19.4 | 221 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
|
Patrick Mahomes
|
31.2 | 20.9 | 216 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
Running backs
| Rushing | Receiving | Scoring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||
|
Kenneth Walker III
|
18.6 | 76.9 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 20.1 | 54% |
|
Emanuel Wilson
|
15.4 | 63.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 40% |
|
George Holani
|
4.9 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.2 | 19% |
|
Emmett Johnson
|
3.6 | 13.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 13.0 | 15% |
|
Velus Jones Jr.
|
1.4 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 5% |
|
Brady Russell
|
– | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1% |
Receivers
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
|
10.5 | 7.5 | 95.5 | 44% |
|
Xavier Worthy
|
8.2 | 5.0 | 55.3 | 30% |
|
Rashid Shaheed
|
4.6 | 2.8 | 34.1 | 20% |
|
Cooper Kupp
|
4.4 | 3.1 | 33.7 | 23% |
|
Andrew Armstrong
|
3.0 | 1.8 | 20.7 | 13% |
|
Jalen Royals
|
3.1 | 1.9 | 20.3 | 14% |
|
Tory Horton
|
1.9 | 1.2 | 13.7 | 11% |
|
Cyrus Allen
|
1.6 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 7% |
|
Justin Watson
|
0.9 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 4% |
|
Irvin Charles
|
0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1% |
|
Nikko Remigio
|
– | – | 0.1 | 0% |
Tight ends
| Receiving | Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||
|
Travis Kelce
|
5.3 | 3.8 | 40.0 | 25% |
|
AJ Barner
|
4.2 | 3.1 | 29.4 | 21% |
|
Noah Gray
|
2.9 | 2.1 | 20.3 | 13% |
|
Eric Saubert
|
0.6 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 3% |
|
Jake Briningstool
|
0.5 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 2% |
|
Jared Wiley
|
0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0% |
|
Nick Kallerup
|
– | – | 0.1 | 0% |
No NFL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their usage is already redistributed to teammates in these projections.
KC
Ben VanSumerenRBBrashard SmithRBNate CarterRBJeff CaldwellWRJimmy HolidayWROmari EvansWRRashee RiceWRTyquan ThorntonWRJohn Michael GyllenborgTEThomas OdukoyaTE
SEA
Jacardia WrightRBJackson AckerRBJadarian PriceRBRobbie OuztsRBRobert Henry Jr.RBZach CharbonnetRBEmmanuel Henderson Jr.WRJake BoboWRMontorie Foster JrWRRicky White IIIWRElijah ArroyoTEJosiah DeguaraTE
Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Projection breakdown
- Home field +2.1
- Team ratings +0.2
- Special teamsTop 3% +1.6
- QB history -0.5
- League baseline 44.1
- Team ratings -1.2
- Scoring output -1.2
- QB history +0.3
QB history: this week's starters against the QBs behind each team's recent stats. Top and Bottom mark an input rare among the 2022-25 games the model learned from.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20
- Result
- SEA won by 17, needed to win by 4+ (3 pushes)
- Why
- Model SEA -3.4, first line SEA -3.0: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- SEA -3.4
- First line
- SEA -2.5
- Close
- SEA -3.0
- Model
- 59.9%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Close
- 57.2%
Moneyline SEA -148 / KC +124 (vig removed)
- Model
- 42.0
- First line
- 44.5
- Close
- 43.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 9 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Tue 6:00 PM ET
- Close
- Spread & total: nflverse consensus · moneyline: DraftKings · as of Sun 10:47 AM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Players
Anytime TD board
- Jahmyr Gibbs71%
- Derrick Henry64%
- Christian McCaffrey57%
- Jonathan Taylor55%
- Kenneth Walker III54%
Quarterbacks
| LA @ LV | 34.3 | 22.5 | 264 | 1.83 | 0.68 | |
| GB @ DET | 32.9 | 21.5 | 264 | 1.77 | 0.67 | |
| DAL @ PHI | 35.5 | 23.5 | 258 | 1.77 | 0.72 | |
| CIN @ BAL | 35.0 | 23.8 | 254 | 1.99 | 0.64 | |
| GB @ DET | 32.6 | 22.2 | 253 | 1.76 | 0.58 | |
| SF @ ATL | 29.8 | 20.2 | 249 | 1.87 | 0.74 | |
| LA @ LV | 33.1 | 22.0 | 240 | 1.69 | 0.73 | |
| PIT @ NO | 32.8 | 21.6 | 237 | 1.79 | 0.54 | |
| NYG @ HOU | 31.1 | 19.9 | 237 | 1.32 | 0.52 | |
| DAL @ PHI | 32.2 | 20.4 | 233 | 1.39 | 0.60 | |
| NE @ CHI | 30.0 | 20.0 | 233 | 1.64 | 0.73 | |
| TB @ CAR | 30.9 | 20.1 | 229 | 1.55 | 0.74 | |
| SF @ ATL | 29.9 | 18.9 | 227 | 1.21 | 0.53 | |
| KC @ SEA | 30.1 | 19.4 | 221 | 1.46 | 0.86 | |
| KC @ SEA | 31.2 | 20.9 | 216 | 1.67 | 0.63 | |
| CLE @ TEN | 28.4 | 18.7 | 214 | 1.30 | 0.56 | |
| TB @ CAR | 32.8 | 20.2 | 207 | 1.34 | 0.66 | |
| NYG @ HOU | 30.6 | 18.8 | 210 | 1.38 | 1.06 | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 27.6 | 18.7 | 212 | 1.16 | 0.65 | |
| PIT @ NO | 30.7 | 20.1 | 207 | 1.26 | 0.64 | |
| DEN @ ARI | 32.6 | 20.9 | 202 | 1.25 | 0.59 | |
| NE @ CHI | 30.3 | 18.7 | 204 | 1.26 | 0.43 | |
| IND @ MIN | 28.0 | 19.3 | 203 | 1.13 | 0.59 | |
| DEN @ ARI | 29.4 | 19.0 | 200 | 1.28 | 0.58 | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 26.5 | 16.8 | 199 | 0.92 | 0.62 | |
| IND @ MIN | 30.9 | 20.0 | 187 | 1.02 | 0.68 | |
| CIN @ BAL | 26.6 | 17.8 | 175 | 0.90 | 0.47 | |
| CLE @ TEN | 28.1 | 17.2 | 163 | 0.83 | 0.50 |
Running backs
| GB @ DET | 18.8 | 92 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 38.4 | 70.7% | |
| SF @ ATL | 18.0 | 84 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 32.1 | 51.8% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 21.7 | 106 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 63.9% | |
| SF @ ATL | 14.5 | 63 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 45.7 | 57.5% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 21.1 | 89 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 17.2 | 43.6% | |
| IND @ MIN | 15.8 | 76 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 24.0 | 49.0% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 21.1 | 86 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 12.5 | 49.2% | |
| KC @ SEA | 18.6 | 77 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 20.1 | 54.1% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 18.9 | 83 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 42.0% | |
| TB @ CAR | 19.7 | 79 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 13.2 | 46.8% | |
| IND @ MIN | 15.7 | 70 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 19.6 | 54.5% | |
| TB @ CAR | 15.4 | 70 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 19.4 | 39.0% | |
| NE @ CHI | 14.9 | 64 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 23.4 | 47.8% | |
| DAL @ PHI | 17.2 | 72 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 13.3 | 45.7% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 15.7 | 60 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 23.5 | 42.0% | |
| PIT @ NO | 12.4 | 58 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 27.7 | 31.2% | |
| LA @ LV | 11.9 | 52 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 31.2 | 50.3% | |
| LA @ LV | 12.9 | 49 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 30.6 | 38.8% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 14.7 | 68 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 46.5% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 12.3 | 50 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 26.1 | 39.8% | |
| KC @ SEA | 15.4 | 63 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 39.5% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 12.1 | 51 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 14.1 | 32.9% | |
| DAL @ PHI | 11.6 | 48 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 17.1 | 29.9% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 14.0 | 56 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 44.9% | |
| DAL @ PHI | 10.0 | 46 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 16.2 | 31.8% | |
| NE @ CHI | 9.5 | 41 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 14.1 | 30.7% | |
| PIT @ NO | 11.4 | 45 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 31.1% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 10.6 | 41 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 32.9% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 5.5 | 22 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 28.3 | 31.9% | |
| PIT @ NO | 7.1 | 30 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 18.8 | 30.7% | |
| PIT @ NO | 6.4 | 28 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 16.4 | 20.7% | |
| GB @ DET | 7.6 | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 13.1 | 27.4% | |
| LA @ LV | 6.8 | 29 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 10.8 | 22.5% | |
| GB @ DET | 6.4 | 27 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 10.9 | 24.5% | |
| GB @ DET | 4.4 | 19 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 18.3 | 17.7% | |
| NE @ CHI | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 26.0% | |
| NE @ CHI | 6.1 | 24 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 12.3 | 26.7% | |
| SF @ ATL | 8.2 | 33 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 20.1% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 5.7 | 23 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 11.5 | 17.3% | |
| IND @ MIN | 7.1 | 34 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 21.4% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 6.7 | 28 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 20.1% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 5.4 | 22 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 15.5% | |
| TB @ CAR | 2.9 | 13 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 18.4 | 17.8% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 5.6 | 23 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 16.7% | |
| KC @ SEA | 4.9 | 19 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.2 | 18.7% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 5.0 | 20 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 15.5% | |
| LA @ LV | 5.8 | 24 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 18.2% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 6.6 | 26 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 14.9% | |
| KC @ SEA | 3.6 | 14 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 13.0 | 15.2% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 3.4 | 15 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 10.4 | 13.6% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 3.6 | 14 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 10.6 | 12.8% | |
| NE @ CHI | 4.9 | 21 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 12.7% | |
| PIT @ NO | 4.0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 13.5% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 1.9 | 9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 13.1 | 11.7% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 3.9 | 17 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 12.5% | |
| SF @ ATL | 3.6 | 16 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 10.9% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 3.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 12.7% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 4.0 | 16 | – | – | – | 11.1% | |
| IND @ MIN | 3.1 | 12 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 10.1% | |
| DAL @ PHI | 2.1 | 9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 7.9% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 2.1 | 1.6 | 13.4 | 8.0% | |
| GB @ DET | 2.4 | 10 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 8.1% | |
| LA @ LV | 1.4 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 7.0% | |
| TB @ CAR | 2.1 | 9 | 0.1 | – | 0.3 | 9.4% | |
| DAL @ PHI | 0.7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 4.5% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 1.8 | 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 5.2% | |
| KC @ SEA | 1.4 | 6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 5.0% | |
| IND @ MIN | 1.8 | 7 | 0.1 | – | 0.3 | 4.9% | |
| IND @ MIN | 0.4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 3.4% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 0.3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 2.6% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.9% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 1.7% | |
| LA @ LV | 0.5 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.2% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 0.6 | 3 | – | – | – | 1.9% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.9% | |
| PIT @ NO | 0.5 | 2 | – | – | – | 1.2% | |
| SF @ ATL | 0.5 | 2 | – | – | – | 1.4% | |
| TB @ CAR | 0.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 0.2 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.9% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.6% | |
| PIT @ NO | 0.3 | 1 | – | – | – | 0.9% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 0.1 | 0 | – | – | 0.2 | 0.4% | |
| IND @ MIN | 0.1 | 0 | – | – | – | 0.3% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0.3% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | 0 | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% |
Receivers
| LA @ LV | 0.60 | 2.7 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 101 | 39.7% | |
| KC @ SEA | 0.10 | 0.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 96 | 43.6% | |
| SF @ ATL | 0.10 | 0.3 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 86 | 34.9% | |
| DAL @ PHI | 0.10 | 0.7 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 85 | 39.5% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 10.3 | 7.5 | 81 | 45.7% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 0.60 | 2.7 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 76 | 32.2% | |
| GB @ DET | 0.10 | 0.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 73 | 30.8% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 8.8 | 5.3 | 73 | 35.1% | |
| PIT @ NO | 0.20 | 0.9 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 71 | 41.2% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 8.4 | 5.4 | 71 | 40.8% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 7.9 | 4.9 | 71 | 30.5% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 7.3 | 4.3 | 71 | 40.2% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 9.3 | 5.9 | 68 | 33.4% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 8.1 | 5.5 | 67 | 41.4% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 7.9 | 5.5 | 66 | 32.4% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 8.1 | 5.2 | 65 | 29.0% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | 0.1 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 62 | 30.7% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 8.4 | 5.4 | 61 | 30.2% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 0.30 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 61 | 29.2% | |
| NE @ CHI | 0.90 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 56 | 26.0% | |
| TB @ CAR | 0.30 | 1.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 58 | 29.5% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 7.0 | 4.5 | 60 | 36.0% | |
| IND @ MIN | 0.20 | 1.1 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 58 | 28.1% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 8.0 | 5.0 | 56 | 31.4% | |
| KC @ SEA | 0.10 | 0.4 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 55 | 30.3% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 7.1 | 4.3 | 55 | 24.6% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 0.30 | 1.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 55 | 27.2% | |
| PIT @ NO | 0.20 | 0.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 49 | 26.1% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 0.10 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 48 | 22.5% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 7.4 | 5.0 | 47 | 27.7% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | 0.1 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 48 | 23.1% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 1.20 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 41 | 24.1% | |
| IND @ MIN | 0.30 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 45 | 30.3% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 6.2 | 4.2 | 46 | 25.7% | |
| LA @ LV | 0.50 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 44 | 25.6% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 5.4 | 3.1 | 46 | 24.0% | |
| GB @ DET | – | 0.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 45 | 24.3% | |
| IND @ MIN | 0.30 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 41 | 22.0% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 0.80 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 38 | 21.8% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 5.4 | 2.9 | 42 | 20.8% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 5.3 | 3.4 | 41 | 20.9% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 5.4 | 3.6 | 40 | 22.2% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 4.7 | 3.2 | 38 | 18.8% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | 0.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 37 | 16.2% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 4.4 | 2.8 | 37 | 21.9% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 4.7 | 2.7 | 36 | 20.5% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 4.8 | 2.8 | 36 | 19.7% | |
| KC @ SEA | 0.30 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 34 | 19.9% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 4.6 | 2.6 | 36 | 21.4% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 4.4 | 3.1 | 34 | 22.6% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 0.20 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 32 | 15.7% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 4.2 | 2.7 | 31 | 17.4% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 0.50 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 30 | 16.4% | |
| NE @ CHI | 0.20 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 28 | 13.0% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | 0.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 29 | 11.5% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 4.0 | 2.3 | 28 | 16.7% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 4.0 | 2.5 | 27 | 13.7% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 3.8 | 2.4 | 27 | 17.4% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 3.8 | 2.4 | 27 | 15.7% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 3.3 | 2.1 | 28 | 15.6% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 3.6 | 2.2 | 27 | 15.3% | |
| DAL @ PHI | 0.30 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 26 | 16.4% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 3.9 | 2.1 | 25 | 16.9% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 3.2 | 1.8 | 25 | 16.9% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 0.30 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 23 | 14.8% | |
| CIN @ BAL | 0.20 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 23 | 12.9% | |
| NE @ CHI | 0.20 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 23 | 14.7% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 3.2 | 2.0 | 24 | 13.6% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 3.0 | 1.8 | 24 | 14.2% | |
| TB @ CAR | 0.20 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 22 | 14.8% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 2.7 | 1.8 | 24 | 12.3% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 3.0 | 1.6 | 23 | 14.8% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 22 | 12.8% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 3.2 | 1.8 | 22 | 13.1% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 3.3 | 1.8 | 22 | 14.4% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 0.40 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 20 | 10.9% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 3.0 | 1.8 | 21 | 12.8% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 3.1 | 1.9 | 20 | 13.7% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 2.7 | 1.6 | 21 | 15.0% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 0.20 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 19 | 11.7% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 2.7 | 1.4 | 19 | 11.7% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 2.6 | 1.6 | 19 | 11.3% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 2.4 | 1.5 | 19 | 12.6% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 2.7 | 1.4 | 18 | 11.8% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 19 | 11.7% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | 0.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 18 | 11.7% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 0.40 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 16 | 9.5% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 0.20 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 16 | 10.6% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 2.0 | 1.4 | 15 | 8.7% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 2.1 | 1.1 | 14 | 8.5% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 1.8 | 1.1 | 14 | 8.9% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 1.9 | 1.2 | 14 | 11.1% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 1.8 | 1.1 | 14 | 9.8% | |
| GB @ DET | 0.60 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 11 | 8.2% | |
| IND @ MIN | 0.20 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 12 | 7.9% | |
| SF @ ATL | 0.10 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 13 | 7.9% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 1.6 | 1.0 | 13 | 9.3% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 12 | 6.0% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 0.10 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 11 | 7.5% | |
| GB @ DET | – | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 12 | 6.6% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 1.6 | 1.0 | 11 | 7.2% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 1.4 | 1.0 | 11 | 5.8% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 1.4 | 0.9 | 11 | 6.0% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 1.4 | 0.9 | 11 | 6.2% | |
| LA @ LV | 0.10 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 10 | 6.5% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 10 | 4.6% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 9 | 6.5% | |
| IND @ MIN | 0.30 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 6.3% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 1.2 | 0.7 | 10 | 4.5% | |
| NE @ CHI | 0.20 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8 | 5.6% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 6.1% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 1.2 | 0.8 | 9 | 6.1% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 4.3% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 1.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 4.7% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 1.2 | 0.6 | 8 | 3.5% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 0.9 | 0.5 | 7 | 4.5% | |
| TB @ CAR | 0.10 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 5 | 4.7% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 0.7 | 0.4 | 5 | 3.0% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 0.7 | 0.4 | 5 | 2.9% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4 | 3.2% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4 | 2.5% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4 | 2.4% | |
| PIT @ NO | 0.30 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 2.4% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 1.6% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | 1.8% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | 1.7% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | 2.2% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | 2.0% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.4% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.4% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.2% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.2% | |
| CLE @ TEN | 0.10 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.7% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.6% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 0.1 | – | 1 | 0.4% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0 | 0.3% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | – | – | 0 | 0.1% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | – | – | 0 | 0.1% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | – | – | 0 | 0.0% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% |
Tight ends
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 7.6 | 5.6 | 69.9 | 38.1% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 9.4 | 7.0 | 64.6 | 31.9% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 8.3 | 5.9 | 64.9 | 33.8% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 8.9 | 6.1 | 63.5 | 42.5% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 7.4 | 5.4 | 61.4 | 34.9% | |
| GB @ DET | 0.20 | 1.10 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 50.8 | 31.3% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 6.2 | 4.5 | 50.5 | 32.7% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 5.6 | 3.9 | 42.9 | 25.1% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 5.3 | 3.4 | 41.0 | 19.5% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 5.3 | 3.8 | 40.0 | 24.9% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 5.2 | 3.6 | 36.8 | 18.1% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 5.0 | 3.4 | 35.5 | 17.7% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 4.8 | 3.3 | 35.4 | 18.6% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 4.4 | 3.0 | 34.2 | 24.4% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 4.4 | 3.1 | 34.1 | 22.7% | |
| PIT @ NO | 0.30 | 1.50 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 31.8 | 22.5% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | 0.10 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 32.9 | 27.0% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 4.4 | 3.1 | 32.7 | 17.9% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | 0.10 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 30.1 | 19.9% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 4.0 | 2.8 | 30.3 | 17.2% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | 0.20 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 29.4 | 21.4% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 3.7 | 2.6 | 28.1 | 16.8% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | 0.10 | 0.40 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 27.7 | 15.7% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 3.5 | 2.5 | 27.0 | 14.5% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 3.4 | 2.4 | 24.1 | 17.7% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 3.5 | 2.6 | 22.7 | 16.2% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 3.3 | 2.3 | 23.1 | 16.9% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 3.3 | 2.2 | 22.9 | 11.1% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 3.2 | 2.2 | 22.6 | 11.7% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 3.0 | 2.1 | 22.2 | 12.9% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 2.9 | 1.9 | 22.1 | 13.3% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | 0.10 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 22.0 | 10.8% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 3.2 | 2.1 | 21.1 | 12.1% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 2.9 | 2.1 | 20.3 | 12.9% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 2.6 | 1.8 | 19.9 | 11.8% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 2.2 | 1.7 | 16.7 | 9.5% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 2.1 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 9.2% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 2.0 | 1.4 | 15.3 | 12.7% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 1.9 | 1.5 | 14.5 | 8.0% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 1.9 | 1.4 | 14.3 | 8.4% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 1.9 | 1.3 | 13.8 | 8.1% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 1.8 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 8.9% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 1.8 | 1.3 | 13.6 | 8.3% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 1.7 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 6.8% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 1.7 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 7.5% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 1.7 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 7.5% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 1.6 | 1.1 | 11.4 | 6.8% | |
| TB @ CAR | 0.20 | 0.90 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 7.0% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 1.5 | 1.2 | 10.3 | 6.4% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 1.5 | 1.0 | 10.2 | 9.1% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 1.4 | 0.9 | 10.2 | 6.2% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 1.4 | 1.0 | 9.7 | 8.6% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 1.3 | 0.9 | 9.9 | 6.3% | |
| LA @ LV | 0.30 | 1.30 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 5.7% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 1.0 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 5.0% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 4.6% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.8 | 4.6% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 0.9 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 4.0% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 0.8 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 4.0% | |
| GB @ DET | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 4.0% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 3.0% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 2.8% | |
| NYG @ HOU | 0.50 | 2.20 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.9% | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | – | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 2.5% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 3.0% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2.8% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 3.3% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 2.8% | |
| LA @ LV | – | – | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 2.0% | |
| DEN @ ARI | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 3.0% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 2.4% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 2.2% | |
| NE @ CHI | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 2.2% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2.2% | |
| IND @ MIN | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2.0% | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 2.0% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 1.8% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.5% | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.8% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.2% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.7% | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.6% | |
| PIT @ NO | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7% | |
| GB @ DET | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.4% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.4 | 0.2% | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1% | |
| KC @ SEA | – | – | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | – | – | 0.1 | 0.0% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| TB @ CAR | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| SF @ ATL | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0% |