MLB predictions Thu, Oct 1

Win probabilities, projected runs and totals for every MLB game, plus batter and pitcher projections. How it works →

1 game on this slate · model went 1–0 · 140–96 last 30 days →

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Updated 10d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Thu, Oct 1

Phillies

2 42.5% · proj 3.8

Braves

6 57.5% · proj 4.5

Postseason

Projected total 8.3

	Hitting	Discipline	Running
Michael Harris	0.17	1.22	1.98	0.47	0.17	0.01	0.91	0.10
Ronald Acuña	0.16	1.07	1.76	0.50	0.43	0.03	1.01	0.17
Drake Baldwin	0.17	0.98	1.66	0.56	0.42	0.04	0.98	0.01
Alec Bohm	0.11	1.05	1.62	0.48	0.22	0.05	0.66	0.02
Trea Turner	0.11	1.01	1.59	0.42	0.27	0.03	1.04	0.12
Ozzie Albies	0.12	0.94	1.51	0.49	0.26	0.03	0.68	0.06
Mauricio Dubón	0.08	1.04	1.50	0.44	0.21	0.02	0.56	0.03
Matt Olson	0.15	0.83	1.49	0.49	0.44	0.01	1.16	0.00
Bryson Stott	0.09	0.94	1.47	0.43	0.33	0.03	0.86	0.14
Bryce Harper	0.13	0.84	1.45	0.43	0.49	0.01	1.28	0.06
Austin Riley	0.12	0.80	1.34	0.46	0.25	0.04	1.25	0.01
Edmundo Sosa	0.10	0.84	1.33	0.39	0.11	0.08	0.97	0.04
Kyle Schwarber	0.16	0.69	1.31	0.41	0.47	0.06	1.70	0.03
Mike Yastrzemski	0.09	0.74	1.27	0.37	0.40	0.02	1.03	0.03
J. T. Realmuto	0.09	0.78	1.25	0.40	0.19	0.07	0.86	0.05
Brandon Marsh	0.09	0.79	1.23	0.39	0.21	0.03	1.22	0.06
Justin Crawford	0.06	0.85	1.22	0.31	0.19	0.02	0.79	–
Sean Murphy	0.10	0.66	1.11	0.32	0.29	0.03	1.09	0.00

	Workload	Results
Aaron Nola	100%	5.3	22.7	5.3	1.79	5.3	0.09	2.52
Ray Kerr	100%	4.2	17.1	4.4	1.00	3.6	0.23	1.47
Jhoan Durán	29%	1.0	4.1	1.3	0.27	0.9	0.06	0.37
Jesús Luzardo	5%	0.9	3.5	1.3	0.08	0.7	0.02	0.27
Didier Fuentes	72%	0.9	4.1	1.2	0.29	0.9	0.06	0.48
Raisel Iglesias	39%	1.0	4.0	1.2	0.31	0.8	0.02	0.41
Dylan Lee	71%	1.0	3.8	1.2	0.23	0.8	0.01	0.39
Jonathan Bowlan	67%	0.9	3.7	1.1	0.32	0.8	0.03	0.42
José Alvarado	76%	0.9	3.9	1.0	0.38	0.9	0.05	0.56
Tanner Banks	22%	0.9	3.9	1.0	0.29	0.9	0.01	0.48
Dylan Dodd	91%	0.9	3.6	0.9	0.21	0.7	0.02	0.36
Chase Shugart	68%	0.9	3.9	0.9	0.35	0.8	0.05	0.51
Brent Suter	88%	0.9	4.0	0.9	0.21	0.9	0.02	0.47
Robert Suarez	37%	1.0	3.9	0.8	0.24	0.8	0.04	0.39
Tim Mayza	53%	0.9	3.7	0.8	0.26	0.8	0.02	0.48
Alex Mcfarlane	43%	0.9	3.9	0.8	0.29	0.9	0.02	0.48
Victor Mederos	94%	0.9	4.0	0.8	0.46	0.9	0.05	0.59
Grant Holmes	31%	1.0	4.1	0.8	0.42	0.9	0.03	0.49
Garrett Stubbs	10%	0.9	4.0	0.7	0.38	1.0	0.06	0.58
Andrew Painter	4%	1.0	4.2	0.6	0.53	0.9	0.00	0.28

	1B	2B	HR	BB	K
Park	+2%	-1%	-8%	-3%	+6%
Umpire				0%	0%
Home field (ATL batting)	0%	+3%	+4%	+4%	-4%

	PHI	ATL	League
Hitters
Lineup	Projected	Projected
K%	21.5%	21.5%	22.5%
BB%	8.4%	8.1%	8.1%
HR%	2.8%	3.4%	3.1%
Starting pitcher
Starter	A. Nola	R. Kerr
K%	24.4%	23.2%	22.5%
BB%	7.4%	6.0%	8.1%
HR%	3.2%	3.3%	3.1%
Innings	5.7	4.4
Catcher & defense: effect on opposing hitters
K%	-2%	+1%
BB%	+2%	-1%

HR watch

Drake Baldwin0.17 HR
Michael Harris0.17 HR
Ronald Acuña0.16 HR
Kyle Schwarber0.16 HR
Matt Olson0.15 HR

Batters

Rank by


PHI @ ATL	0.16	1.07	1.76	0.50	0.43	0.17	0.03	1.01
PHI @ ATL	0.17	1.22	1.98	0.47	0.17	0.10	0.01	0.91
PHI @ ATL	0.16	0.69	1.31	0.41	0.47	0.03	0.06	1.70
PHI @ ATL	0.17	0.98	1.66	0.56	0.42	0.01	0.04	0.98
PHI @ ATL	0.13	0.84	1.45	0.43	0.49	0.06	0.01	1.28
PHI @ ATL	0.11	1.01	1.59	0.42	0.27	0.12	0.03	1.04
PHI @ ATL	0.15	0.83	1.49	0.49	0.44	0.00	0.01	1.16
PHI @ ATL	0.09	0.94	1.47	0.43	0.33	0.14	0.03	0.86
PHI @ ATL	0.12	0.80	1.34	0.46	0.25	0.01	0.04	1.25
PHI @ ATL	0.11	1.05	1.62	0.48	0.22	0.02	0.05	0.66
PHI @ ATL	0.12	0.94	1.51	0.49	0.26	0.06	0.03	0.68
PHI @ ATL	0.09	0.79	1.23	0.39	0.21	0.06	0.03	1.22
PHI @ ATL	0.09	0.74	1.27	0.37	0.40	0.03	0.02	1.03
PHI @ ATL	0.08	1.04	1.50	0.44	0.21	0.03	0.02	0.56
PHI @ ATL	0.10	0.84	1.33	0.39	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.97
PHI @ ATL	0.09	0.78	1.25	0.40	0.19	0.05	0.07	0.86
PHI @ ATL	0.10	0.66	1.11	0.32	0.29	0.00	0.03	1.09
PHI @ ATL	0.06	0.85	1.22	0.31	0.19	–	0.02	0.79

Pitchers

Rank by


PHI @ ATL	100.0%	5.3	5.3	1.79	5.3	0.09	2.52	22.7
PHI @ ATL	100.0%	4.2	4.4	1.00	3.6	0.23	1.47	17.1
PHI @ ATL	94.0%	0.9	0.8	0.46	0.9	0.05	0.59	4.0
PHI @ ATL	91.3%	0.9	0.9	0.21	0.7	0.02	0.36	3.6
PHI @ ATL	88.3%	0.9	0.9	0.21	0.9	0.02	0.47	4.0
PHI @ ATL	76.0%	0.9	1.0	0.38	0.9	0.05	0.56	3.9
PHI @ ATL	71.6%	0.9	1.2	0.29	0.9	0.06	0.48	4.1
PHI @ ATL	71.1%	1.0	1.2	0.23	0.8	0.01	0.39	3.8
PHI @ ATL	68.3%	0.9	0.9	0.35	0.8	0.05	0.51	3.9
PHI @ ATL	66.9%	0.9	1.1	0.32	0.8	0.03	0.42	3.7
PHI @ ATL	53.3%	0.9	0.8	0.26	0.8	0.02	0.48	3.7
PHI @ ATL	42.8%	0.9	0.8	0.29	0.9	0.02	0.48	3.9
PHI @ ATL	39.3%	1.0	1.2	0.31	0.8	0.02	0.41	4.0
PHI @ ATL	37.4%	1.0	0.8	0.24	0.8	0.04	0.39	3.9
PHI @ ATL	30.9%	1.0	0.8	0.42	0.9	0.03	0.49	4.1
PHI @ ATL	28.7%	1.0	1.3	0.27	0.9	0.06	0.37	4.1
PHI @ ATL	22.1%	0.9	1.0	0.29	0.9	0.01	0.48	3.9
PHI @ ATL	9.8%	0.9	0.7	0.38	1.0	0.06	0.58	4.0
PHI @ ATL	5.1%	0.9	1.3	0.08	0.7	0.02	0.27	3.5
PHI @ ATL	3.6%	1.0	0.6	0.53	0.9	0.00	0.28	4.2

Batters

Not yet included: Runs Scored

Estimated, not directly simulated: SB


1	Ronald Acuña	PHI @ ATL	7.4	1.76	0.50	0.43	0.17	0.03
2	Michael Harris	PHI @ ATL	6.9	1.98	0.47	0.17	0.10	0.01
3	Drake Baldwin	PHI @ ATL	6.6	1.66	0.56	0.42	0.01	0.04
4	Trea Turner	PHI @ ATL	6.2	1.59	0.42	0.27	0.12	0.03
5	Bryson Stott	PHI @ ATL	6.1	1.47	0.43	0.33	0.14	0.03
6	Bryce Harper	PHI @ ATL	6.1	1.45	0.43	0.49	0.06	0.01
7	Matt Olson	PHI @ ATL	6.0	1.49	0.49	0.44	0.00	0.01
8	Alec Bohm	PHI @ ATL	5.9	1.62	0.48	0.22	0.02	0.05
9	Ozzie Albies	PHI @ ATL	5.8	1.51	0.49	0.26	0.06	0.03
10	Kyle Schwarber	PHI @ ATL	5.7	1.31	0.41	0.47	0.03	0.06
11	Mauricio Dubón	PHI @ ATL	5.5	1.50	0.44	0.21	0.03	0.02
12	Mike Yastrzemski	PHI @ ATL	5.2	1.27	0.37	0.40	0.03	0.02
13	Austin Riley	PHI @ ATL	5.1	1.34	0.46	0.25	0.01	0.04
14	J. T. Realmuto	PHI @ ATL	4.9	1.25	0.40	0.19	0.05	0.07
15	Edmundo Sosa	PHI @ ATL	4.9	1.33	0.39	0.11	0.04	0.08
16	Brandon Marsh	PHI @ ATL	4.8	1.23	0.39	0.21	0.06	0.03
17	Sean Murphy	PHI @ ATL	4.3	1.11	0.32	0.29	0.00	0.03
18	Justin Crawford	PHI @ ATL	4.3	1.22	0.31	0.19	–	0.02

Pitchers

Not yet included: Wins, Losses, Saves

Points are expected points: the line if he pitches, times his chance to pitch.


1	Ray Kerr	PHI @ ATL	15.2	4.19	4.41	1.00	3.55	0.23	1.47
2	Aaron Nola	PHI @ ATL	15.0	5.32	5.33	1.79	5.32	0.09	2.52
3	Dylan Dodd	PHI @ ATL	2.9	0.90	0.94	0.21	0.74	0.02	0.36
4	Dylan Lee	PHI @ ATL	2.8	0.95	1.20	0.23	0.80	0.01	0.39
5	Didier Fuentes	PHI @ ATL	2.5	0.95	1.22	0.29	0.92	0.06	0.48
6	Brent Suter	PHI @ ATL	2.3	0.95	0.90	0.21	0.94	0.02	0.47
7	Jonathan Bowlan	PHI @ ATL	2.2	0.89	1.10	0.32	0.77	0.03	0.42
8	José Alvarado	PHI @ ATL	1.7	0.88	1.02	0.38	0.88	0.05	0.56
9	Raisel Iglesias	PHI @ ATL	1.6	1.00	1.21	0.31	0.79	0.02	0.41
10	Chase Shugart	PHI @ ATL	1.5	0.90	0.90	0.35	0.84	0.05	0.51
11	Victor Mederos	PHI @ ATL	1.4	0.88	0.83	0.46	0.92	0.05	0.59
12	Tim Mayza	PHI @ ATL	1.2	0.89	0.84	0.26	0.85	0.02	0.48
13	Jhoan Durán	PHI @ ATL	1.2	0.97	1.29	0.27	0.91	0.06	0.37
14	Robert Suarez	PHI @ ATL	1.1	0.97	0.84	0.24	0.83	0.04	0.39
15	Alex Mcfarlane	PHI @ ATL	0.9	0.91	0.83	0.29	0.91	0.02	0.48
16	Grant Holmes	PHI @ ATL	0.7	0.98	0.82	0.42	0.85	0.03	0.49
17	Tanner Banks	PHI @ ATL	0.6	0.91	0.95	0.29	0.90	0.01	0.48
18	Jesús Luzardo	PHI @ ATL	0.2	0.93	1.27	0.08	0.67	0.02	0.27
19	Garrett Stubbs	PHI @ ATL	0.1	0.89	0.65	0.38	0.99	0.06	0.58
20	Andrew Painter	PHI @ ATL	0.1	0.96	0.61	0.53	0.94	0.00	0.28

MLB predictions Thu, Oct 1

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