The Forecast Card

All sports · Sunday, October 11

Card for Sun, Oct 11

Every bet our models make that day, across every sport, at the line it was set at. Simulated 1 unit a game, not betting advice.

Bets
29
Settled
15–13–1
Units
+1.10
By start Win chance Edge
All Open Settled
  1. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Gea @ Shelton Gea +241 Moneyline Set at line Gea 28.0% · model 29.7%
    30%win chance 28%market
    ✓ Won +2.41 Gea 14, Shelton 12
  2. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Mannarino @ Khachanov Khachanov -363 Moneyline Set at line Khachanov 74.8% · model 77.1%
    77%win chance 75%market
    ✓ Won +0.28 Mannarino 6, Khachanov 12
  3. ATP 1:30 AM ET
    Sakamoto @ De Minaur De Minaur -280 Moneyline Set at line De Minaur 70.3% · model 71.1%
    71%win chance 70%market
    ✓ Won +0.36 Sakamoto 10, De Minaur 13
  4. ATP 1:30 AM ET
    Zhou @ Hurkacz Zhou +564 Moneyline Set at line Zhou 14.4% · model 15.3%
    15%win chance 14%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Zhou 11, Hurkacz 15
  5. ATP 3:00 AM ET
    Mensik @ Cerundolo Cerundolo +129 Moneyline Set at line Cerundolo 41.6% · model 46.5%
    46%win chance 42%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Mensik 15, Cerundolo 11
  6. ATP 4:30 AM ET
    Nakashima @ Bublik Nakashima -130 Moneyline Set at line Nakashima 53.8% · model 56.4%
    56%win chance 54%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Nakashima 16, Bublik 19
  7. ATP 6:00 AM ET
    Halys @ Zverev Halys +500 Moneyline Set at line Halys 15.9% · model 24.0%
    24%win chance 16%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Halys 14, Zverev 18
  8. ATP 7:30 AM ET
    Tiafoe @ Davidovich Fokina Davidovich Fokina -112 Moneyline Set at line Davidovich Fokina 50.3% · model 54.8%
    55%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 Tiafoe 18, Davidovich Fokina 18
  9. WTA 7:30 AM ET
    Andreeva @ Zheng Andreeva -187 Moneyline Set at line Andreeva 62.1% · model 69.3%
    69%win chance 62%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Andreeva 9, Zheng 13
  10. NFL 9:30 AM ET
    PHI @ JAX PHI +7.5 Spread Set at line JAX -7.5 · model JAX -5.5
    57%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 PHI 17, JAX 19
  11. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    CHI @ GB GB +1.5 Spread Set at line CHI -1.5 · model GB -0.3
    57%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 CHI 7, GB 31
  12. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    CIN @ MIA MIA +7.0 Spread Set at line CIN -7.0 · model CIN -3.9
    61%win chance 50%market
    Push CIN 31, MIA 24
  13. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    CLE @ NYJ NYJ -2.5 Spread Set at line NYJ -2.5 · model NYJ -2.9
    52%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 CLE 12, NYJ 17
  14. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    HOU @ TEN TEN +7.0 Spread Set at line HOU -7.0 · model HOU -5.2
    57%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 HOU 26, TEN 3
  15. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    IND @ PIT IND +3.0 Spread Set at line PIT -3.0 · model PIT -1.3
    56%win chance 52%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 IND 22, PIT 34
  16. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    LV @ NE NE -3.5 Spread Set at line NE -3.5 · model NE -7.1
    63%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 LV 17, NE 45
  17. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    MIN @ NO NO +2.5 Spread Set at line MIN -2.5 · model MIN -1.3
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 MIN 23, NO 13
  18. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    NYG @ WAS NYG +3.5 Spread Set at line WAS -3.5 · model WAS -2.8
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 NYG 27, WAS 27
  19. NFL 4:05 PM ET
    DEN @ LAC LAC +3.5 Spread Set at line DEN -3.5 · model DEN -2.3
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 DEN 23, LAC 17
  20. NFL 4:25 PM ET
    DET @ ARI ARI +5.5 Spread Set at line DET -5.5 · model DET -4.5
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 DET 45, ARI 21
  21. NFL 4:25 PM ET
    SF @ SEA SEA -3.0 Spread Set at line SEA -3.0 · model SEA -5.6
    60%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 SF 32, SEA 29
  22. NHL 5:00 PM ET
    SEA @ WSH SEA +180 Moneyline Set at line SEA 34.3% · model 36.1%
    36%win chance 34%market
    ✓ Won +1.80 SEA 5, WSH 3
  23. NHL 6:00 PM ET
    VAN @ NYR NYR -265 Moneyline Set at line NYR 69.6% · model 77.2%
    77%win chance 70%market
    ✓ Won +0.38 VAN 2, NYR 6
  24. NHL 7:00 PM ET
    CAR @ PHI CAR -218 Moneyline Set at line CAR 65.7% · model 68.1%
    68%win chance 66%market
    ✓ Won +0.46 CAR 4, PHI 1
  25. MLB 8:00 PM ET
    LAD @ MIL LAD -107 Moneyline Set at line LAD 49.4% · model 53.3%
    53%win chance 49%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 LAD 1, MIL 2
  26. NFL 8:20 PM ET
    BAL @ ATL BAL +3.0 Spread Set at line ATL -3.0 · model ATL -1.3
    56%win chance 47%market
    ✓ Won +1.02 BAL 30, ATL 23
  27. WTA 11:00 PM ET
    Kartal @ Kalinina Kartal -175 Moneyline Set at line Kartal 60.6% · model 71.2%
    71%win chance 61%market
    ✓ Won +0.57 Kartal 13, Kalinina 8
  28. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Auger Aliassime @ Carreno-Busta Carreno-Busta +247 Moneyline Set at line Carreno-Busta 27.5% · model 30.4%
    30%win chance 27%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Auger Aliassime 16, Carreno-Busta 10
  29. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Ruud @ Tien Ruud +135 Moneyline Set at line Ruud 40.6% · model 52.2%
    52%win chance 41%market
    ✓ Won +1.35 Ruud 13, Tien 10

Win chance is the model's chance the bet wins: its win probability for a moneyline, and for a spread its chance to cover, sized from how far its margins have missed over the last 30 days. Market is the same chance from the prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. Edge is the gap between the two, in points.