WTA

Model record

Every game since Oct 10, 2026, settled against the first line we captured (games spread and moneyline). Simulated 1 unit a game, not real bets.

The model's side is the player it gives a better chance than the market does (bookmaker margin removed), so read the hit rate against the prices' break-even. Prices are DraftKings first. Pushes return the stake; postponed, cancelled, walkover and retired games are no action.

4–3 on the moneyline · since Oct 10

57.1% hit rate · break-even 63.4% at the prices taken

-0.7 units at 1 a game · ROI -10.6%

2–2 when the model disagreed by 8+ win-% points · -1.1 units

7 settled games: at this size the hit rate could be off by about ±37 points either way, far too few to separate skill from luck.

0 no action · 1 pending · 1 with no position (the model matched the market, or no price was posted).

Model's side vs the price	Result	Units
Mon, Oct 12 →
Eala A. -401Shi H. 16, Eala A. 12	✗ lost	-1.00
Starodubtseva Y. +147Starodubtseva Y. 16, McNally C. 15	✗ lost	-1.00
Sakkari M. -165Vekic D. 6, Sakkari M. 12	✓ won	+0.61
Frech M. -132Frech M. 13, Sawangkaew M. 9	✓ won	+0.76
Tjen J. -311Ito A. 4, Tjen J. 12	✓ won	+0.32
Kartal S. -175Kartal S. 13, Kalinina A. 8	✓ won	+0.57
Sun, Oct 11 →
Andreeva M. -187Andreeva M. 9, Zheng Q. 13	✗ lost	-1.00

Moneyline