ATP

Model record

Every game since Oct 10, 2026, settled against the first line we captured (games spread and moneyline). Simulated 1 unit a game, not real bets.

The model's side is the player it gives a better chance than the market does (bookmaker margin removed), so read the hit rate against the prices' break-even. Prices are DraftKings first. Pushes return the stake; postponed, cancelled, walkover and retired games are no action.

7–7 on the moneyline · since Oct 10

50.0% hit rate · break-even 43.2% at the prices taken

+8.2 units at 1 a game · ROI +58.2%

1–2 when the model disagreed by 8+ win-% points · -0.6 units

14 settled games: at this size the hit rate could be off by about ±26 points either way, far too few to separate skill from luck.

0 no action · 1 pending · 1 with no position (the model matched the market, or no price was posted).

Model's side vs the price	Result	Units
Mon, Oct 12 →
Paul T. -150Vacherot V. 6, Paul T. 12	✓ won	+0.67
Bergs Z. +920Alcaraz C. 11, Bergs Z. 14	✓ won	+9.20
Svrcina D. +486Svrcina D. 5, Medvedev D. 12	✗ lost	-1.00
Lehecka J. -153Jodar R. 17, Lehecka J. 16	✗ lost	-1.00
Fritz T. -176Fritz T. 14, Tsitsipas S. 16	✗ lost	-1.00
Carreno-Busta P. +247Auger Aliassime F. 16, Carreno-Busta P. 10	✗ lost	-1.00
Ruud C. +135Ruud C. 13, Tien L. 10	✓ won	+1.35
Sun, Oct 11 →
Davidovich Fokina A. -112Tiafoe F. 18, Davidovich Fokina A. 18	✓ won	+0.89
Halys Q. +500Halys Q. 14, Zverev A. 18	✗ lost	-1.00
Nakashima B. -130Nakashima B. 16, Bublik A. 19	✗ lost	-1.00
De Minaur A. -280Sakamoto R. 10, De Minaur A. 13	✓ won	+0.36
Zhou Y. +564Zhou Y. 11, Hurkacz H. 15	✗ lost	-1.00
Gea A. +241Gea A. 14, Shelton B. 12	✓ won	+2.41
Khachanov K. -363Mannarino A. 6, Khachanov K. 12	✓ won	+0.28

Moneyline