NHL predictions Fri, Oct 23

Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →

2 games on this slate · model went 2–0 · 112–72 last 30 days →

‹ ›

Updated 3d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Fri, Oct 23

Canadiens

4 59.8% · proj 3.5

Blackhawks

1 40.2% · proj 2.9

ModelClose

MTL win 59.8% 60.4%

Total 6.4 6.5

Our bet CHI +142 ✗ Lost

Set at line CHI 39.6% · model 40.2% · at the close

✓ Favorite won Final · Fri, Oct 23

Lightning

3 46.5% · proj 3.2

Avalanche

6 53.5% · proj 3.4

ModelMarket

COL win 53.5% 52.6%

Total 6.5 6.5

Our bet COL -122 ✓ Won

Set at line COL 52.6% · model 53.5% · at the close

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Cole Caufield	48%	0.65	70%	3.41	84%	19:49	3:49
Juraj Slafkovsky	34%	0.41	64%	2.41	68%	19:30	3:50
Connor Bedard	32%	0.38	63%	2.91	77%	20:05	3:52
Tyler Bertuzzi	26%	0.31	47%	1.85	54%	17:19	3:25
Patrick Kane	26%	0.31	58%	2.42	68%	18:52	3:18
Chris Kreider	26%	0.30	47%	1.73	51%	15:44	2:41
Roman Kantserov	23%	0.26	44%	1.69	50%	18:14	3:20
Frank Nazar	23%	0.26	44%	1.93	57%	17:29	2:19
Alex Newhook	22%	0.24	41%	1.56	46%	16:21	1:18
Zack Bolduc	22%	0.24	42%	1.64	48%	14:41	1:41
Anton Frondell	21%	0.24	46%	2.01	59%	16:30	2:04
Oliver Kapanen	19%	0.21	35%	1.57	46%	12:58	1:42
Josh Anderson	18%	0.20	31%	1.49	43%	14:52	0:01
Alexandre Texier	17%	0.19	38%	1.55	46%	13:52	1:20
Ryan Donato	15%	0.16	30%	1.38	40%	12:31	1:10
Teuvo Teravainen	15%	0.16	38%	1.23	35%	15:58	2:11
Phillip Danault	14%	0.15	35%	1.38	40%	16:19	0:14
Kirby Dach	12%	0.13	27%	1.02	27%	11:39	0:50
Jake Evans	12%	0.13	28%	1.05	28%	14:34	0:00
Oliver Moore	12%	0.13	29%	1.19	33%	11:43	1:08
Ryan Greene	12%	0.13	27%	1.11	30%	14:01	0:37
Jordan Greenway	10%	0.11	22%	1.14	31%	12:39	0:02
Cole Smith	10%	0.10	20%	1.09	30%	12:35	0:01
Florian Xhekaj	9%	0.10	22%	1.00	26%	8:53	0:00

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Lane Hutson	15%	0.16	70%	1.80	53%	26:27	3:59
Noah Dobson	12%	0.13	44%	1.99	58%	22:26	1:14
Artyom Levshunov	7%	0.07	28%	1.27	36%	20:25	0:58
Kaiden Guhle	7%	0.07	28%	1.26	36%	22:07	0:07
Sam Rinzel	7%	0.07	25%	1.40	41%	17:26	1:16
Alexandre Carrier	5%	0.05	27%	1.01	27%	21:01	0:00
Wyatt Kaiser	5%	0.05	19%	0.99	26%	19:25	0:08
Adam Engstrom	4%	0.04	17%	0.92	24%	12:55	0:17
Alex Vlasic	4%	0.04	19%	0.93	24%	20:05	0:04
Ethan Del Mastro	3%	0.03	14%	0.92	23%	14:55	0:00
Ian Cole	3%	0.03	17%	0.73	17%	16:49	0:02
Arber Xhekaj	3%	0.03	11%	0.70	16%	12:53	0:01

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Nathan MacKinnon	41%	0.53	75%	3.84	88%	21:28	4:05
Nikita Kucherov	37%	0.47	76%	2.83	76%	20:19	4:03
Brandon Hagel	35%	0.44	62%	2.99	78%	20:27	3:21
Jake Guentzel	34%	0.42	60%	2.45	69%	19:26	3:58
Martin Necas	31%	0.37	62%	2.37	67%	19:50	3:30
Brayden Point	29%	0.34	54%	2.01	59%	18:01	3:47
Nazem Kadri	28%	0.33	54%	2.73	74%	19:28	3:35
Brock Nelson	26%	0.30	47%	2.03	59%	18:25	1:47
Artturi Lehkonen	26%	0.30	44%	1.83	54%	17:43	1:31
Gabriel Landeskog	22%	0.25	41%	1.80	53%	15:52	2:08
Anthony Cirelli	21%	0.23	40%	1.58	46%	15:59	1:28
T.J. Hughes	20%	0.22	38%	1.87	55%	14:21	3:38
Jaden Schwartz	17%	0.19	35%	1.61	47%	14:27	2:10
Ilya Mikheyev	15%	0.16	29%	1.41	41%	15:30	0:01
Pontus Holmberg	14%	0.15	29%	1.33	38%	13:46	0:46
Gage Goncalves	14%	0.15	32%	1.16	32%	15:20	0:55
Zemgus Girgensons	12%	0.13	22%	1.20	34%	14:45	0:01
Conor Geekie	11%	0.12	22%	1.07	29%	12:06	0:50
Parker Kelly	11%	0.12	23%	1.17	32%	12:34	0:01
Fedor Svechkov	11%	0.11	26%	1.10	30%	13:34	0:05
Logan O'Connor	10%	0.10	20%	1.01	27%	11:43	0:02
Jeffrey Viel	9%	0.10	19%	1.00	26%	10:13	0:05

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Cale Makar	18%	0.20	58%	2.33	66%	22:17	3:54
John Carlson	12%	0.13	44%	1.92	56%	19:21	3:31
Devon Toews	8%	0.09	35%	1.49	44%	20:10	2:01
Sam Malinski	6%	0.07	26%	1.60	47%	16:20	0:23
Brent Burns	6%	0.06	22%	1.52	44%	15:57	0:09
J.J. Moser	6%	0.06	21%	1.07	29%	19:17	0:13
Victor Hedman	6%	0.06	25%	1.10	30%	15:59	0:29
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	5%	0.05	25%	1.04	28%	15:39	1:22
Josh Manson	5%	0.05	22%	1.22	34%	15:05	0:01
Brett Kulak	4%	0.04	18%	1.11	31%	18:00	0:02
Erik Cernak	4%	0.04	16%	0.95	25%	18:28	0:03
Emil Lilleberg	4%	0.04	16%	0.76	18%	15:32	0:01
Ryan McDonagh	3%	0.03	20%	0.72	16%	16:48	0:04
Noah Juulsen	2%	0.02	9%	0.46	8%	9:44	0:01

Anytime goal board

Cole Caufield48%
Nathan MacKinnon41%
Nikita Kucherov37%
Brandon Hagel35%
Jake Guentzel34%

Forwards

Rank by


TBL @ COL	41.1%	0.53	75.3%	40.7%	58.0%	3.84	88.1%	72.0%	21:28	4:05
TBL @ COL	37.2%	0.47	75.9%	41.6%	61.6%	2.83	76.0%	52.9%	20:19	4:03
MTL @ CHI	47.8%	0.65	69.8%	33.6%	42.2%	3.41	83.9%	64.8%	19:49	3:49
TBL @ COL	35.4%	0.44	62.1%	25.3%	41.3%	2.99	78.4%	56.3%	20:27	3:21
MTL @ CHI	31.8%	0.38	62.8%	26.0%	45.5%	2.91	77.3%	54.6%	20:05	3:52
TBL @ COL	34.4%	0.42	60.2%	23.5%	39.3%	2.45	69.0%	43.9%	19:26	3:58
MTL @ CHI	33.8%	0.41	63.7%	26.9%	45.2%	2.41	68.2%	42.9%	19:30	3:50
TBL @ COL	30.8%	0.37	62.4%	25.6%	45.7%	2.37	67.3%	41.9%	19:50	3:30
TBL @ COL	27.9%	0.33	53.5%	17.9%	35.5%	2.73	74.3%	50.6%	19:28	3:35
MTL @ CHI	26.4%	0.31	57.9%	21.5%	42.9%	2.42	68.4%	43.2%	18:52	3:18
TBL @ COL	28.8%	0.34	53.8%	18.2%	35.1%	2.01	58.7%	32.5%	18:01	3:47
MTL @ CHI	23.2%	0.26	44.3%	11.7%	27.5%	1.69	49.7%	24.1%	18:14	3:20
MTL @ CHI	26.4%	0.31	47.3%	13.6%	28.4%	1.85	54.5%	28.4%	17:19	3:25
TBL @ COL	26.0%	0.30	46.6%	13.1%	27.8%	2.03	59.3%	33.1%	18:25	1:47
MTL @ CHI	22.9%	0.26	44.0%	11.5%	27.4%	1.93	56.7%	30.5%	17:29	2:19
TBL @ COL	25.7%	0.30	44.3%	11.7%	25.0%	1.83	53.9%	27.9%	17:43	1:31
MTL @ CHI	21.1%	0.24	45.9%	12.7%	31.5%	2.01	58.9%	32.7%	16:30	2:04
MTL @ CHI	25.6%	0.30	47.2%	13.5%	29.1%	1.73	50.9%	25.2%	15:44	2:41
TBL @ COL	21.8%	0.25	41.0%	9.9%	24.6%	1.80	53.1%	27.2%	15:52	2:08
TBL @ COL	19.7%	0.22	38.0%	8.4%	22.8%	1.87	55.1%	29.0%	14:21	3:38
MTL @ CHI	21.7%	0.24	40.9%	9.8%	24.6%	1.56	45.8%	20.9%	16:21	1:18
TBL @ COL	20.7%	0.23	40.5%	9.6%	24.9%	1.58	46.5%	21.5%	15:59	1:28
MTL @ CHI	14.5%	0.16	37.9%	8.3%	27.3%	1.23	34.6%	13.0%	15:58	2:11
MTL @ CHI	21.6%	0.24	41.8%	10.3%	25.7%	1.64	48.3%	23.0%	14:41	1:41
TBL @ COL	17.4%	0.19	34.6%	6.8%	20.8%	1.61	47.3%	22.2%	14:27	2:10
MTL @ CHI	14.2%	0.15	35.3%	7.1%	24.5%	1.38	39.9%	16.5%	16:19	0:14
TBL @ COL	14.1%	0.15	32.4%	5.9%	21.4%	1.16	32.1%	11.5%	15:20	0:55
MTL @ CHI	17.4%	0.19	37.8%	8.3%	24.7%	1.55	45.5%	20.8%	13:52	1:20
TBL @ COL	15.1%	0.16	28.8%	4.6%	16.2%	1.41	40.9%	17.3%	15:30	0:01
MTL @ CHI	18.8%	0.21	35.4%	7.2%	20.4%	1.57	46.1%	21.2%	12:58	1:42
MTL @ CHI	18.4%	0.20	31.2%	5.5%	15.7%	1.49	43.5%	19.2%	14:52	0:01
TBL @ COL	14.1%	0.15	28.7%	4.6%	17.0%	1.33	38.0%	15.3%	13:46	0:46
TBL @ COL	12.0%	0.13	21.6%	2.5%	10.9%	1.20	33.7%	12.5%	14:45	0:01
MTL @ CHI	11.9%	0.13	27.1%	4.1%	17.2%	1.11	30.4%	10.5%	14:01	0:37
MTL @ CHI	12.0%	0.13	28.2%	4.4%	18.3%	1.05	28.3%	9.3%	14:34	0:00
MTL @ CHI	14.8%	0.16	30.0%	5.0%	17.8%	1.38	39.8%	16.5%	12:31	1:10
TBL @ COL	10.9%	0.11	25.8%	3.7%	16.7%	1.10	30.0%	10.3%	13:34	0:05
MTL @ CHI	12.0%	0.13	29.0%	4.7%	19.4%	1.19	33.3%	12.2%	11:43	1:08
TBL @ COL	11.0%	0.12	22.4%	2.7%	12.7%	1.07	29.1%	9.8%	12:06	0:50
MTL @ CHI	10.2%	0.11	22.1%	2.6%	13.2%	1.14	31.4%	11.1%	12:39	0:02
TBL @ COL	11.0%	0.12	23.3%	2.9%	13.8%	1.17	32.4%	11.7%	12:34	0:01
MTL @ CHI	9.9%	0.10	19.7%	2.1%	10.8%	1.09	29.5%	10.0%	12:35	0:01
MTL @ CHI	12.4%	0.13	26.5%	3.9%	16.1%	1.02	27.0%	8.6%	11:39	0:50
TBL @ COL	9.6%	0.10	20.0%	2.2%	11.6%	1.01	26.7%	8.4%	11:43	0:02
TBL @ COL	9.5%	0.10	18.9%	1.9%	10.4%	1.00	26.3%	8.3%	10:13	0:05
MTL @ CHI	9.3%	0.10	22.2%	2.7%	14.2%	1.00	26.2%	8.2%	8:53	0:00

Defense

Rank by


MTL @ CHI	14.9%	0.16	70.1%	34.0%	64.9%	1.80	52.9%	27.0%	26:27	3:59
TBL @ COL	18.5%	0.20	58.1%	21.7%	48.6%	2.33	66.4%	40.8%	22:17	3:54
MTL @ CHI	11.9%	0.13	43.6%	11.3%	36.0%	1.99	58.2%	32.0%	22:26	1:14
TBL @ COL	11.8%	0.13	44.4%	11.7%	36.9%	1.92	56.3%	30.1%	19:21	3:31
TBL @ COL	8.4%	0.09	34.7%	6.9%	28.7%	1.49	43.5%	19.2%	20:10	2:01
MTL @ CHI	6.9%	0.07	28.1%	4.4%	22.8%	1.26	35.9%	13.8%	22:07	0:07
MTL @ CHI	6.9%	0.07	27.6%	4.2%	22.2%	1.27	35.9%	13.9%	20:25	0:58
MTL @ CHI	5.2%	0.05	26.6%	3.9%	22.6%	1.01	26.6%	8.4%	21:01	0:00
MTL @ CHI	3.6%	0.04	19.4%	2.0%	16.4%	0.93	23.8%	7.0%	20:05	0:04
TBL @ COL	5.8%	0.06	21.1%	2.4%	16.2%	1.07	28.9%	9.6%	19:17	0:13
MTL @ CHI	4.7%	0.05	18.8%	1.9%	14.8%	0.99	26.1%	8.2%	19:25	0:08
MTL @ CHI	6.7%	0.07	24.9%	3.4%	19.5%	1.40	40.6%	17.0%	17:26	1:16
TBL @ COL	3.7%	0.04	16.4%	1.4%	13.2%	0.95	24.5%	7.4%	18:28	0:03
TBL @ COL	4.1%	0.04	17.9%	1.7%	14.4%	1.11	30.5%	10.6%	18:00	0:02
TBL @ COL	6.4%	0.07	26.4%	3.9%	21.4%	1.60	47.0%	22.0%	16:20	0:23
TBL @ COL	5.1%	0.05	24.9%	3.4%	20.9%	1.04	27.9%	9.1%	15:39	1:22
TBL @ COL	6.0%	0.06	21.9%	2.6%	16.9%	1.52	44.4%	19.8%	15:57	0:09
TBL @ COL	5.6%	0.06	24.7%	3.3%	20.2%	1.10	30.2%	10.4%	15:59	0:29
TBL @ COL	3.4%	0.03	20.0%	2.2%	17.2%	0.72	16.4%	3.9%	16:48	0:04
MTL @ CHI	3.3%	0.03	16.8%	1.5%	14.0%	0.73	16.6%	3.9%	16:49	0:02
TBL @ COL	4.7%	0.05	21.9%	2.6%	18.1%	1.22	34.3%	12.8%	15:05	0:01
TBL @ COL	3.5%	0.04	16.3%	1.4%	13.3%	0.76	17.7%	4.4%	15:32	0:01
MTL @ CHI	3.4%	0.03	14.2%	1.1%	11.2%	0.92	23.4%	6.8%	14:55	0:00
MTL @ CHI	4.0%	0.04	17.1%	1.6%	13.6%	0.92	23.6%	6.9%	12:55	0:17
MTL @ CHI	2.8%	0.03	10.7%	0.6%	8.1%	0.70	15.7%	3.6%	12:53	0:01
TBL @ COL	1.6%	0.02	9.1%	0.4%	7.7%	0.46	8.0%	1.2%	9:44	0:01

Tim Hortons Hockey Challenge: one pick per group, and each pick counts if that player scores. Every group is ranked by the model's chance to score. The three best picks: 0.91 expected scorers, 2.0% that all three score.

Group 1

Cole Caufield MTL @ CHI · 3.4 SOG · 19:49 TOI Best48%
Nathan MacKinnon COL vs TBL · 3.8 SOG · 21:28 TOI 41%
Nikita Kucherov TBL @ COL · 2.8 SOG · 20:19 TOI 37%
Brandon Hagel TBL @ COL · 3.0 SOG · 20:27 TOI 35%
Jake Guentzel TBL @ COL · 2.4 SOG · 19:26 TOI 34%
Juraj SlafkovskÃÂÃÂ½ MTL @ CHI · 2.4 SOG · 19:30 TOI 34%
Connor Bedard CHI vs MTL · 2.9 SOG · 20:05 TOI 32%
Martin Necas COL vs TBL · 2.4 SOG · 19:50 TOI 31%
Brayden Point TBL @ COL · 2.0 SOG · 18:01 TOI 29%
Tyler Bertuzzi CHI vs MTL · 1.9 SOG · 17:19 TOI 26%
Artturi Lehkonen COL vs TBL · 1.8 SOG · 17:43 TOI 26%
Chris Kreider MTL @ CHI · 1.7 SOG · 15:44 TOI 26%

Group 2

Nazem Kadri COL vs TBL · 2.7 SOG · 19:28 TOI Best28%
Patrick Kane CHI vs MTL · 2.4 SOG · 18:52 TOI 26%
Brock Nelson COL vs TBL · 2.0 SOG · 18:25 TOI 26%
Roman Kantserov CHI vs MTL · 1.7 SOG · 18:14 TOI 23%
Frank Nazar CHI vs MTL · 1.9 SOG · 17:29 TOI 23%
Gabriel Landeskog COL vs TBL · 1.8 SOG · 15:52 TOI 22%
Alex Newhook MTL @ CHI · 1.6 SOG · 16:21 TOI 22%
Anton Frondell CHI vs MTL · 2.0 SOG · 16:30 TOI 21%
Oliver Kapanen MTL @ CHI · 1.6 SOG · 12:58 TOI 19%
Cale Makar COL vs TBL · 2.3 SOG · 22:17 TOI 18%
Josh Anderson MTL @ CHI · 1.5 SOG · 14:52 TOI 18%
Jaden Schwartz COL vs TBL · 1.6 SOG · 14:27 TOI 17%
Teuvo Teravainen CHI vs MTL · 1.2 SOG · 15:58 TOI 15%

Group 3

Ilya Mikheyev TBL @ COL · 1.4 SOG · 15:30 TOI Best15%
Lane Hutson MTL @ CHI · 1.8 SOG · 26:27 TOI 15%
Ryan Donato CHI vs MTL · 1.4 SOG · 12:31 TOI 15%
Pontus Holmberg TBL @ COL · 1.3 SOG · 13:46 TOI 14%
Gage Goncalves TBL @ COL · 1.2 SOG · 15:20 TOI 14%
Jake Evans MTL @ CHI · 1.1 SOG · 14:34 TOI 12%
Zemgus Girgensons TBL @ COL · 1.2 SOG · 14:45 TOI 12%
Oliver Moore CHI vs MTL · 1.2 SOG · 11:43 TOI 12%
Ryan Greene CHI vs MTL · 1.1 SOG · 14:01 TOI 12%
John Carlson TBL @ COL · 1.9 SOG · 19:21 TOI 12%
Conor Geekie TBL @ COL · 1.1 SOG · 12:06 TOI 11%
Parker Kelly COL vs TBL · 1.2 SOG · 12:34 TOI 11%
Logan O'Connor COL vs TBL · 1.0 SOG · 11:43 TOI 10%
Jeff Viel TBL @ COL · 1.0 SOG · 10:13 TOI 9%
Dominic James TBL @ COL Not in projected lineup

Groups via timnhlassist.com, refreshed hourly. Not affiliated with Tim Hortons. Percentages are model estimates, not betting lines.

NHL predictions Fri, Oct 23

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Games

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Players

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Tims Hockey Challenge

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3