NHL predictions Wed, Oct 21

Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →

2 games on this slate · model went 1–1 · 112–72 last 30 days →

‹ ›

Updated 5d ago

✗ Favorite lost Final · Wed, Oct 21

Flyers

3 41.1% · proj 3.0

Sabres

1 58.9% · proj 3.6

ModelClose

BUF win 58.9% 65.7%

Total 6.5 6.5

Our bet PHI +180 ✓ Won

Set at line PHI 34.3% · model 41.1% · at the close

✓ Favorite won Final · Wed, Oct 21

Panthers

1 38.0% · proj 2.6

Senators

5 62.0% · proj 3.3

ModelClose

OTT win 62.0% 50.0%

Total 5.9 5.5

Our bet OTT -110 ✓ Won

Set at line OTT 50.0% · model 62.0% · at the close

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Tage Thompson	41%	0.53	64%	3.43	84%	19:04	3:43
Jack Quinn	30%	0.36	57%	2.50	70%	17:36	3:42
Jason Zucker	27%	0.32	50%	1.94	57%	14:48	3:31
Trevor Zegras	27%	0.31	55%	1.90	56%	18:43	2:46
Tyson Foerster	26%	0.31	42%	1.99	58%	17:44	2:34
Zach Benson	25%	0.29	53%	2.03	59%	18:07	3:10
Matvei Michkov	25%	0.28	49%	1.81	53%	14:53	2:33
Josh Doan	23%	0.26	43%	1.83	54%	15:18	1:51
Noah Ostlund	22%	0.25	47%	1.70	50%	17:13	2:59
Christian Dvorak	22%	0.25	46%	1.60	47%	18:45	1:28
Porter Martone	20%	0.23	42%	1.62	48%	14:10	2:02
Jiri Kulich	19%	0.21	35%	1.61	47%	13:49	1:10
Josh Norris	19%	0.21	39%	1.43	42%	14:06	2:09
Sean Couturier	17%	0.19	40%	1.47	43%	17:09	0:12
Denver Barkey	16%	0.17	39%	1.09	30%	15:01	1:44
Cole Knuble	16%	0.17	34%	1.41	41%	13:54	0:00
Alex Bump	16%	0.17	33%	1.28	36%	12:16	0:45
Konsta Helenius	15%	0.16	34%	1.42	41%	12:17	1:10
Noah Cates	14%	0.16	33%	1.18	33%	14:17	0:32
Ryan McLeod	14%	0.15	40%	1.10	30%	15:35	1:17
Noel Acciari	14%	0.15	25%	1.19	33%	14:38	0:01
Peyton Krebs	11%	0.12	33%	1.07	29%	12:58	0:09
Jacob Gaucher	9%	0.10	21%	0.88	22%	9:22	0:01
Beck Malenstyn	7%	0.08	17%	0.75	17%	10:20	0:02

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Rasmus Dahlin	16%	0.18	56%	2.38	68%	21:07	3:24
Travis Sanheim	12%	0.13	37%	1.48	43%	26:17	0:18
Olen Zellweger	12%	0.12	30%	1.92	56%	19:44	0:45
Owen Power	11%	0.12	43%	1.65	49%	24:26	2:28
Oliver Bonk	9%	0.09	35%	1.18	33%	20:32	0:52
Jamie Drysdale	9%	0.09	32%	1.28	36%	22:32	2:24
Mattias Samuelsson	7%	0.08	32%	1.34	38%	23:23	0:06
Nick Seeler	6%	0.06	20%	1.14	31%	20:13	0:02
David Jiricek	5%	0.05	24%	0.84	21%	14:03	1:54
Louis Crevier	4%	0.04	17%	1.06	29%	14:25	0:01
Hunter McDonald	3%	0.03	17%	0.71	16%	12:28	0:00
Zach Metsa	3%	0.03	15%	0.58	12%	12:42	0:04

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Tim Stützle	34%	0.42	67%	2.23	64%	21:47	4:19
Drake Batherson	32%	0.39	59%	2.10	61%	18:10	4:05
Sam Reinhart	31%	0.37	54%	2.50	70%	20:24	4:49
Brady Tkachuk	29%	0.34	52%	3.12	80%	16:37	4:22
Dylan Cozens	28%	0.33	53%	2.25	65%	17:10	3:50
Shane Pinto	28%	0.33	49%	1.96	58%	18:53	2:26
Matthew Tkachuk	26%	0.30	59%	2.39	68%	18:06	4:34
Carter Verhaeghe	25%	0.28	47%	2.32	66%	18:12	3:37
Sam Bennett	24%	0.27	44%	2.33	66%	17:27	2:57
Claude Giroux	20%	0.22	50%	1.68	49%	17:10	3:07
Ridly Greig	19%	0.21	37%	1.50	44%	16:37	1:03
Anton Lundell	18%	0.20	39%	1.97	58%	17:45	2:34
Fabian Zetterlund	18%	0.20	33%	1.53	45%	12:42	1:51
Warren Foegele	16%	0.18	29%	1.36	39%	12:13	0:24
Stephen Halliday	16%	0.18	35%	1.33	38%	11:53	2:45
Michael Amadio	15%	0.17	32%	1.16	32%	15:11	0:03
Eetu Luostarinen	12%	0.13	27%	1.32	38%	16:06	1:30
Lars Eller	10%	0.11	24%	1.17	33%	15:08	1:00
Nick Cousins	10%	0.10	21%	0.89	23%	10:21	0:02
Sandis Vilmanis	10%	0.10	22%	1.08	29%	12:56	0:21
Hayden Hodgson	7%	0.07	15%	0.61	13%	6:49	0:02
Bokondji Imama	5%	0.05	12%	0.74	17%	8:09	0:00
Garnet Hathaway	5%	0.05	11%	0.62	13%	10:24	0:01

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Jake Sanderson	12%	0.13	43%	1.76	52%	20:48	2:33
Seth Jones	10%	0.11	42%	1.88	55%	24:17	4:19
Carter Yakemchuk	9%	0.09	34%	1.40	40%	19:16	3:15
Jordan Spence	9%	0.09	35%	1.37	40%	21:28	0:47
Aaron Ekblad	6%	0.06	28%	1.30	37%	21:31	1:57
Tyler Kleven	6%	0.06	22%	1.25	35%	20:17	0:06
Artem Zub	6%	0.06	29%	1.17	32%	21:35	0:08
Gustav Forsling	5%	0.05	24%	1.41	41%	21:54	0:35
Niko Mikkola	4%	0.04	15%	1.03	28%	19:53	0:05
Nikolas Matinpalo	3%	0.03	13%	0.76	18%	14:40	0:00
Dmitry Kulikov	3%	0.03	13%	0.71	16%	16:07	0:01
Radko Gudas	2%	0.02	11%	0.76	18%	13:24	0:00

Anytime goal board

Tage Thompson41%
Tim Stützle34%
Drake Batherson32%
Sam Reinhart31%
Jack Quinn30%

Forwards

Rank by


FLA @ OTT	34.0%	0.42	67.4%	30.8%	50.5%	2.23	64.2%	38.3%	21:47	4:19
FLA @ OTT	30.9%	0.37	54.5%	18.7%	34.1%	2.50	70.1%	45.2%	20:24	4:49
PHI @ BUF	41.3%	0.53	64.2%	27.4%	39.1%	3.43	84.2%	65.2%	19:04	3:43
FLA @ OTT	26.2%	0.30	59.4%	22.8%	45.0%	2.39	67.8%	42.4%	18:06	4:34
FLA @ OTT	32.3%	0.39	59.1%	22.5%	39.6%	2.10	61.1%	35.0%	18:10	4:05
FLA @ OTT	28.6%	0.34	51.5%	16.4%	32.1%	3.12	80.3%	59.0%	16:37	4:22
PHI @ BUF	30.2%	0.36	56.6%	20.4%	37.9%	2.50	70.0%	45.1%	17:36	3:42
FLA @ OTT	24.8%	0.28	46.6%	13.1%	29.0%	2.32	66.3%	40.7%	18:12	3:37
PHI @ BUF	26.8%	0.31	55.0%	19.1%	38.6%	1.90	55.8%	29.7%	18:43	2:46
FLA @ OTT	28.4%	0.33	53.0%	17.5%	34.4%	2.25	64.6%	38.8%	17:10	3:50
PHI @ BUF	25.0%	0.29	52.8%	17.3%	37.0%	2.03	59.4%	33.2%	18:07	3:10
FLA @ OTT	28.0%	0.33	49.3%	14.9%	29.6%	1.96	57.6%	31.4%	18:53	2:26
FLA @ OTT	23.5%	0.27	43.5%	11.3%	26.1%	2.33	66.4%	40.8%	17:27	2:57
PHI @ BUF	26.5%	0.31	42.2%	10.5%	21.4%	1.99	58.4%	32.2%	17:44	2:34
FLA @ OTT	18.2%	0.20	38.7%	8.7%	25.1%	1.97	57.8%	31.6%	17:45	2:34
FLA @ OTT	19.6%	0.22	49.9%	15.3%	37.7%	1.68	49.3%	23.9%	17:10	3:07
PHI @ BUF	22.3%	0.25	47.4%	13.6%	32.3%	1.70	50.0%	24.4%	17:13	2:59
PHI @ BUF	22.0%	0.25	46.5%	13.0%	31.4%	1.60	46.9%	21.9%	18:45	1:28
PHI @ BUF	27.1%	0.32	50.1%	15.4%	31.5%	1.94	56.8%	30.7%	14:48	3:31
PHI @ BUF	24.6%	0.28	48.6%	14.4%	31.9%	1.81	53.4%	27.4%	14:53	2:33
PHI @ BUF	22.9%	0.26	43.1%	11.0%	26.1%	1.83	53.9%	27.9%	15:18	1:51
FLA @ OTT	19.0%	0.21	37.2%	8.0%	22.5%	1.50	43.8%	19.4%	16:37	1:03
PHI @ BUF	17.3%	0.19	39.7%	9.2%	27.1%	1.47	42.9%	18.7%	17:09	0:12
FLA @ OTT	11.8%	0.13	27.1%	4.1%	17.3%	1.32	37.8%	15.1%	16:06	1:30
PHI @ BUF	20.3%	0.23	41.7%	10.2%	26.8%	1.62	47.8%	22.6%	14:10	2:02
PHI @ BUF	14.2%	0.15	40.3%	9.5%	30.4%	1.10	30.1%	10.3%	15:35	1:17
PHI @ BUF	18.9%	0.21	38.9%	8.8%	24.6%	1.43	41.6%	17.8%	14:06	2:09
PHI @ BUF	16.0%	0.17	39.4%	9.1%	27.8%	1.09	29.8%	10.1%	15:01	1:44
FLA @ OTT	10.1%	0.11	23.8%	3.1%	15.3%	1.17	32.6%	11.8%	15:08	1:00
PHI @ BUF	19.0%	0.21	35.5%	7.2%	20.4%	1.61	47.3%	22.2%	13:49	1:10
FLA @ OTT	15.3%	0.17	32.1%	5.8%	19.9%	1.16	32.1%	11.5%	15:11	0:03
FLA @ OTT	18.1%	0.20	33.3%	6.3%	18.6%	1.53	44.7%	20.1%	12:42	1:51
FLA @ OTT	16.1%	0.18	35.1%	7.0%	22.6%	1.33	38.0%	15.2%	11:53	2:45
PHI @ BUF	14.4%	0.16	32.7%	6.1%	21.4%	1.18	32.8%	11.9%	14:17	0:32
PHI @ BUF	13.7%	0.15	25.2%	3.5%	13.4%	1.19	33.1%	12.1%	14:38	0:01
PHI @ BUF	15.8%	0.17	33.6%	6.4%	21.1%	1.41	40.9%	17.3%	13:54	0:00
PHI @ BUF	15.2%	0.16	33.7%	6.4%	21.8%	1.42	41.1%	17.4%	12:17	1:10
PHI @ BUF	15.7%	0.17	32.8%	6.1%	20.2%	1.28	36.4%	14.2%	12:16	0:45
PHI @ BUF	11.3%	0.12	32.6%	6.0%	24.0%	1.07	28.8%	9.6%	12:58	0:09
FLA @ OTT	16.2%	0.18	28.8%	4.6%	15.0%	1.36	39.1%	16.0%	12:13	0:24
FLA @ OTT	9.6%	0.10	21.6%	2.5%	13.3%	1.08	29.4%	9.9%	12:56	0:21
FLA @ OTT	9.6%	0.10	21.3%	2.5%	12.9%	0.89	22.5%	6.4%	10:21	0:02
PHI @ BUF	7.5%	0.08	16.8%	1.5%	10.1%	0.75	17.4%	4.2%	10:20	0:02
FLA @ OTT	4.9%	0.05	11.0%	0.6%	6.4%	0.62	12.9%	2.6%	10:24	0:01
PHI @ BUF	9.1%	0.10	20.6%	2.3%	12.6%	0.88	21.9%	6.1%	9:22	0:01
FLA @ OTT	5.0%	0.05	11.9%	0.7%	7.2%	0.74	17.0%	4.1%	8:09	0:00
FLA @ OTT	6.6%	0.07	14.6%	1.1%	8.6%	0.61	12.8%	2.6%	6:49	0:02

Defense

Rank by


FLA @ OTT	10.2%	0.11	41.7%	10.2%	35.1%	1.88	55.4%	29.3%	24:17	4:19
PHI @ BUF	10.9%	0.12	43.1%	11.0%	36.1%	1.65	48.6%	23.2%	24:26	2:28
PHI @ BUF	12.1%	0.13	37.4%	8.1%	28.7%	1.48	43.1%	18.9%	26:17	0:18
PHI @ BUF	16.4%	0.18	55.7%	19.7%	47.0%	2.38	67.6%	42.2%	21:07	3:24
PHI @ BUF	8.9%	0.09	32.1%	5.8%	25.5%	1.28	36.5%	14.2%	22:32	2:24
FLA @ OTT	11.9%	0.13	43.5%	11.2%	35.9%	1.76	51.7%	25.9%	20:48	2:33
PHI @ BUF	7.3%	0.08	32.1%	5.8%	26.8%	1.34	38.5%	15.6%	23:23	0:06
FLA @ OTT	6.1%	0.06	28.4%	4.5%	23.7%	1.30	37.2%	14.7%	21:31	1:57
FLA @ OTT	8.8%	0.09	34.4%	6.8%	28.1%	1.40	40.3%	16.9%	19:16	3:15
FLA @ OTT	5.3%	0.05	24.2%	3.2%	20.0%	1.41	41.0%	17.3%	21:54	0:35
FLA @ OTT	8.7%	0.09	34.8%	6.9%	28.6%	1.37	39.6%	16.4%	21:28	0:47
PHI @ BUF	11.6%	0.12	30.0%	5.0%	20.8%	1.92	56.3%	30.2%	19:44	0:45
FLA @ OTT	5.5%	0.06	28.8%	4.6%	24.7%	1.17	32.5%	11.7%	21:35	0:08
PHI @ BUF	9.0%	0.09	35.4%	7.2%	29.0%	1.18	32.7%	11.9%	20:32	0:52
FLA @ OTT	5.8%	0.06	21.7%	2.5%	16.9%	1.25	35.4%	13.5%	20:17	0:06
PHI @ BUF	5.7%	0.06	20.4%	2.2%	15.6%	1.14	31.3%	11.0%	20:13	0:02
FLA @ OTT	4.1%	0.04	15.0%	1.2%	11.4%	1.03	27.7%	9.0%	19:53	0:05
PHI @ BUF	4.7%	0.05	24.3%	3.2%	20.6%	0.84	20.6%	5.5%	14:03	1:54
FLA @ OTT	2.6%	0.03	12.5%	0.8%	10.2%	0.71	16.1%	3.7%	16:07	0:01
PHI @ BUF	4.2%	0.04	17.1%	1.6%	13.4%	1.06	28.7%	9.5%	14:25	0:01
FLA @ OTT	3.4%	0.03	12.9%	0.9%	9.9%	0.76	17.6%	4.3%	14:40	0:00
FLA @ OTT	2.0%	0.02	11.2%	0.7%	9.4%	0.76	17.7%	4.4%	13:24	0:00
PHI @ BUF	2.7%	0.03	14.9%	1.2%	12.6%	0.58	11.5%	2.2%	12:42	0:04
PHI @ BUF	3.2%	0.03	16.7%	1.5%	13.9%	0.71	15.9%	3.7%	12:28	0:00

Tim Hortons Hockey Challenge: one pick per group, and each pick counts if that player scores. Every group is ranked by the model's chance to score. The three best picks: 0.93 expected scorers, 2.6% that all three score.

Group 1

Tage Thompson BUF vs PHI · 3.4 SOG · 19:04 TOI Best41%
Brady Tkachuk FLA @ OTT · 3.1 SOG · 16:37 TOI 29%

Group 2

Drake Batherson OTT vs FLA · 2.1 SOG · 18:10 TOI Best32%
Jack Quinn BUF vs PHI · 2.5 SOG · 17:36 TOI 30%
Dylan Cozens OTT vs FLA · 2.2 SOG · 17:10 TOI 28%
Trevor Zegras PHI @ BUF · 1.9 SOG · 18:43 TOI 27%
Matthew Tkachuk FLA @ OTT · 2.4 SOG · 18:06 TOI 26%
Zach Benson BUF vs PHI · 2.0 SOG · 18:07 TOI 25%
Matvei Michkov PHI @ BUF · 1.8 SOG · 14:53 TOI 25%
Sam Bennett FLA @ OTT · 2.3 SOG · 17:27 TOI 24%
Josh Doan BUF vs PHI · 1.8 SOG · 15:18 TOI 23%
Noah Ostlund BUF vs PHI · 1.7 SOG · 17:13 TOI 22%
Porter Martone PHI @ BUF · 1.6 SOG · 14:10 TOI 20%
Jiri Kulich BUF vs PHI · 1.6 SOG · 13:49 TOI 19%
Josh Norris BUF vs PHI · 1.4 SOG · 14:06 TOI 19%
Denver Barkey PHI @ BUF · 1.1 SOG · 15:01 TOI 16%
Ryan McLeod BUF vs PHI · 1.1 SOG · 15:35 TOI 14%

Group 3

Claude Giroux OTT vs FLA · 1.7 SOG · 17:10 TOI Best20%
Anton Lundell FLA @ OTT · 2.0 SOG · 17:45 TOI 18%
Fabian Zetterlund OTT vs FLA · 1.5 SOG · 12:42 TOI 18%
Sean Couturier PHI @ BUF · 1.5 SOG · 17:09 TOI 17%
Alex Bump PHI @ BUF · 1.3 SOG · 12:16 TOI 16%
Konsta Helenius BUF vs PHI · 1.4 SOG · 12:17 TOI 15%
Noah Cates PHI @ BUF · 1.2 SOG · 14:17 TOI 14%
Noel Acciari PHI @ BUF · 1.2 SOG · 14:38 TOI 14%
Jake Sanderson OTT vs FLA · 1.8 SOG · 20:48 TOI 12%
Eetu Luostarinen FLA @ OTT · 1.3 SOG · 16:06 TOI 12%
Olen Zellweger BUF vs PHI · 1.9 SOG · 19:44 TOI 12%
Peyton Krebs BUF vs PHI · 1.1 SOG · 12:58 TOI 11%
Seth Jones FLA @ OTT · 1.9 SOG · 24:17 TOI 10%
Lars Eller FLA @ OTT · 1.2 SOG · 15:08 TOI 10%
Sandis Vilmanis FLA @ OTT · 1.1 SOG · 12:56 TOI 10%

Groups via timnhlassist.com, refreshed hourly. Not affiliated with Tim Hortons. Percentages are model estimates, not betting lines.

NHL predictions Wed, Oct 21

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Games

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Players

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Tims Hockey Challenge

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3