NHL predictions Fri, Oct 16

Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →

2 games on this slate · model went 1–1 · 112–72 last 30 days →

‹ ›

Updated 10d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Fri, Oct 16

Penguins

2 37.1% · proj 3.0

Avalanche

5 62.9% · proj 3.9

ModelClose

COL win 62.9% 64.5%

Total 6.9 6.5

Our bet PIT +170 ✗ Lost

Set at line PIT 35.5% · model 37.1% · at the close

✗ Favorite lost Final · Fri, Oct 16

Bruins

4 45.0% · proj 3.1

Ducks

2 55.0% · proj 3.4

ModelMarket

ANA win 55.0% 49.6%

Total 6.4 6.5

Our bet ANA -108 ✗ Lost

Set at line ANA 49.6% · model 55.0% · at the close

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Nathan MacKinnon	45%	0.60	79%	3.97	89%	21:16	4:28
Martin Necas	37%	0.47	70%	2.69	74%	21:03	4:32
Nazem Kadri	31%	0.37	57%	2.81	76%	19:07	3:51
Brock Nelson	30%	0.36	52%	2.18	63%	18:49	2:20
Rickard Rakell	29%	0.35	52%	2.38	67%	19:30	3:51
Sidney Crosby	29%	0.35	60%	2.34	67%	19:24	3:55
Bryan Rust	28%	0.33	51%	2.14	62%	18:33	2:49
Artturi Lehkonen	28%	0.33	48%	1.93	57%	18:29	1:51
Evgeni Malkin	25%	0.28	55%	2.22	64%	18:10	3:38
Gabriel Landeskog	25%	0.28	47%	1.96	57%	15:56	2:46
T.J. Hughes	22%	0.25	43%	1.94	57%	13:57	4:11
Egor Chinakhov	22%	0.25	41%	1.98	58%	15:42	2:03
Ben Kindel	21%	0.24	40%	1.95	57%	16:25	3:01
Tommy Novak	20%	0.22	40%	1.66	49%	15:18	2:07
Jaden Schwartz	17%	0.19	35%	1.54	45%	12:46	1:46
Nicholas Robertson	13%	0.14	24%	1.39	40%	11:35	0:05
Andrei Kuzmenko	13%	0.14	30%	1.11	30%	12:18	2:05
Parker Kelly	12%	0.13	25%	1.14	32%	11:48	0:01
Fedor Svechkov	12%	0.13	27%	1.14	31%	12:44	0:06
Connor Dewar	11%	0.12	24%	1.28	36%	13:18	0:01
Elmer Soderblom	11%	0.12	22%	1.12	31%	11:34	0:06
Blake Lizotte	9%	0.10	23%	0.98	26%	13:10	0:02
Gavin Brindley	9%	0.09	19%	0.90	23%	7:43	0:51

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Cale Makar	21%	0.24	63%	2.44	69%	22:11	4:19
Erik Karlsson	13%	0.14	52%	2.07	60%	22:57	4:04
Devon Toews	10%	0.11	40%	1.62	48%	21:23	2:34
Sam Malinski	8%	0.09	31%	1.83	54%	17:23	0:33
Brent Burns	7%	0.08	26%	1.69	50%	16:41	0:14
Kris Letang	7%	0.07	33%	1.46	42%	20:08	1:52
Josh Manson	6%	0.06	26%	1.33	38%	16:01	0:01
Brett Kulak	5%	0.05	21%	1.18	33%	18:17	0:03
Samuel Girard	5%	0.05	26%	0.97	25%	18:59	0:12
Declan Carlile	5%	0.05	16%	1.06	28%	18:12	0:00
Kaedan Korczak	3%	0.04	19%	0.80	19%	17:14	0:02
Spencer Stastney	3%	0.03	13%	0.78	19%	14:31	0:01
Noah Juulsen	2%	0.02	12%	0.57	11%	11:23	0:02

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Beckett Sennecke	39%	0.50	68%	2.68	73%	19:39	3:26
Cutter Gauthier	38%	0.48	61%	3.23	82%	15:13	3:25
Leo Carlsson	37%	0.45	68%	2.40	68%	19:49	3:54
David Pastrnak	36%	0.44	69%	3.25	82%	19:29	2:40
Morgan Geekie	27%	0.32	48%	1.90	56%	17:06	2:12
JJ Peterka	23%	0.26	44%	1.89	56%	15:47	1:52
Alex Killorn	23%	0.26	43%	1.87	55%	16:51	1:18
Pavel Zacha	22%	0.25	46%	1.62	48%	17:16	2:12
Elias Lindholm	19%	0.22	41%	1.54	45%	16:26	1:47
Fraser Minten	19%	0.22	37%	1.69	50%	16:09	1:10
Judd Caulfield	18%	0.19	40%	1.36	39%	12:58	1:24
James Hagens	17%	0.19	36%	1.50	44%	13:07	1:18
A.J. Greer	17%	0.19	35%	1.46	43%	12:07	0:18
Frank Vatrano	16%	0.17	30%	1.51	44%	11:22	0:44
Tim Washe	15%	0.16	32%	1.10	30%	14:08	0:15
Casey Mittelstadt	15%	0.16	35%	1.20	34%	14:05	1:22
Nikita Nesterenko	14%	0.15	32%	1.23	35%	12:15	0:02
Matthew Poitras	14%	0.15	30%	1.33	38%	11:54	0:39
Nikita Klepov	12%	0.13	30%	1.11	30%	10:03	0:48
Jeff Malott	12%	0.13	27%	1.03	28%	9:50	0:01
Mark Kastelic	12%	0.12	23%	1.14	31%	11:50	0:02
Marat Khusnutdinov	11%	0.12	25%	0.95	25%	14:08	0:06
Tanner Jeannot	11%	0.11	21%	0.90	23%	11:59	0:04

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Jackson Lacombe	17%	0.19	60%	1.81	53%	24:58	3:39
Charlie McAvoy	13%	0.14	46%	1.68	50%	23:55	2:18
Pavel Mintyukov	8%	0.08	29%	1.11	31%	18:58	0:22
Tristan Luneau	7%	0.07	30%	0.99	26%	19:21	0:29
Hampus Lindholm	7%	0.07	28%	1.32	38%	20:30	1:00
Mason Lohrei	7%	0.07	27%	1.01	27%	17:07	1:01
Frederic Brunet	7%	0.07	27%	1.24	35%	16:59	1:44
Noah Warren	6%	0.06	30%	1.12	31%	18:44	0:01
Nikita Zadorov	6%	0.06	24%	1.27	36%	20:00	0:07
Tyson Hinds	5%	0.05	19%	1.20	34%	14:38	0:00
Will Borgen	4%	0.04	18%	0.94	24%	19:12	0:00
Drew Helleson	4%	0.04	21%	0.79	19%	15:41	0:00

Anytime goal board

Nathan MacKinnon45%
Beckett Sennecke39%
Cutter Gauthier38%
Martin Necas37%
Leo Carlsson37%

Forwards

Rank by


PIT @ COL	45.2%	0.60	79.3%	46.7%	62.2%	3.97	89.2%	73.9%	21:16	4:28
PIT @ COL	37.4%	0.47	70.0%	33.9%	52.0%	2.69	73.6%	49.7%	21:03	4:32
BOS @ ANA	36.5%	0.45	68.2%	31.8%	49.9%	2.40	68.1%	42.7%	19:49	3:54
BOS @ ANA	39.1%	0.50	67.9%	31.5%	47.4%	2.68	73.4%	49.4%	19:39	3:26
BOS @ ANA	35.6%	0.44	68.5%	32.2%	51.2%	3.25	82.0%	61.6%	19:29	2:40
PIT @ COL	30.6%	0.37	57.2%	20.8%	38.3%	2.81	75.6%	52.4%	19:07	3:51
PIT @ COL	29.2%	0.35	59.7%	23.1%	43.1%	2.34	66.7%	41.1%	19:24	3:55
PIT @ COL	29.5%	0.35	51.7%	16.5%	31.5%	2.38	67.5%	42.0%	19:30	3:51
PIT @ COL	24.8%	0.28	55.3%	19.3%	40.5%	2.22	64.1%	38.1%	18:10	3:38
PIT @ COL	28.1%	0.33	50.9%	16.0%	31.6%	2.14	62.1%	36.0%	18:33	2:49
PIT @ COL	30.2%	0.36	51.9%	16.7%	31.1%	2.18	63.1%	37.1%	18:49	2:20
BOS @ ANA	38.4%	0.48	61.4%	24.7%	37.4%	3.23	81.8%	61.4%	15:13	3:25
PIT @ COL	28.1%	0.33	48.3%	14.2%	28.1%	1.93	56.6%	30.5%	18:29	1:51
BOS @ ANA	27.5%	0.32	47.8%	13.9%	28.0%	1.90	55.7%	29.6%	17:06	2:12
PIT @ COL	21.2%	0.24	39.6%	9.2%	23.4%	1.95	57.2%	31.0%	16:25	3:01
BOS @ ANA	22.5%	0.25	46.2%	12.8%	30.6%	1.62	47.6%	22.4%	17:16	2:12
PIT @ COL	24.8%	0.28	46.7%	13.1%	29.1%	1.96	57.5%	31.3%	15:56	2:46
PIT @ COL	22.3%	0.25	43.4%	11.2%	27.2%	1.94	56.8%	30.7%	13:57	4:11
BOS @ ANA	22.7%	0.26	42.8%	10.8%	26.0%	1.87	55.0%	28.9%	16:51	1:18
PIT @ COL	21.8%	0.25	40.5%	9.6%	24.0%	1.98	58.1%	31.9%	15:42	2:03
BOS @ ANA	23.2%	0.26	43.6%	11.3%	26.6%	1.89	55.6%	29.5%	15:47	1:52
BOS @ ANA	19.4%	0.22	41.1%	9.9%	26.8%	1.54	45.0%	20.4%	16:26	1:47
PIT @ COL	19.6%	0.22	40.0%	9.3%	25.4%	1.66	48.8%	23.4%	15:18	2:07
BOS @ ANA	19.4%	0.22	36.5%	7.7%	21.3%	1.69	49.9%	24.3%	16:09	1:10
BOS @ ANA	14.7%	0.16	35.5%	7.2%	24.3%	1.20	33.5%	12.3%	14:05	1:22
PIT @ COL	17.4%	0.19	34.8%	6.9%	21.0%	1.54	45.2%	20.5%	12:46	1:46
BOS @ ANA	17.4%	0.19	35.6%	7.3%	22.0%	1.50	43.8%	19.4%	13:07	1:18
BOS @ ANA	17.7%	0.19	40.1%	9.4%	27.3%	1.36	39.1%	16.0%	12:58	1:24
BOS @ ANA	15.1%	0.16	32.4%	5.9%	20.4%	1.10	30.1%	10.3%	14:08	0:15
PIT @ COL	13.0%	0.14	29.5%	4.9%	19.0%	1.11	30.3%	10.4%	12:18	2:05
BOS @ ANA	11.1%	0.12	25.2%	3.5%	15.9%	0.95	24.7%	7.5%	14:08	0:06
PIT @ COL	11.5%	0.12	23.8%	3.1%	13.9%	1.28	36.4%	14.2%	13:18	0:01
BOS @ ANA	17.1%	0.19	34.8%	6.9%	21.3%	1.46	42.6%	18.5%	12:07	0:18
BOS @ ANA	13.6%	0.15	30.3%	5.1%	19.3%	1.33	38.2%	15.3%	11:54	0:39
PIT @ COL	12.0%	0.13	26.8%	4.0%	16.8%	1.14	31.4%	11.0%	12:44	0:06
BOS @ ANA	15.9%	0.17	30.2%	5.1%	17.0%	1.51	44.1%	19.6%	11:22	0:44
PIT @ COL	9.1%	0.10	22.6%	2.8%	14.9%	0.98	25.6%	7.9%	13:10	0:02
BOS @ ANA	14.1%	0.15	31.6%	5.6%	20.4%	1.23	34.7%	13.1%	12:15	0:02
PIT @ COL	13.0%	0.14	23.9%	3.1%	12.5%	1.39	40.3%	16.8%	11:35	0:05
PIT @ COL	12.1%	0.13	25.3%	3.5%	15.1%	1.14	31.6%	11.2%	11:48	0:01
BOS @ ANA	11.6%	0.12	22.9%	2.8%	12.8%	1.14	31.5%	11.1%	11:50	0:02
BOS @ ANA	10.5%	0.11	21.5%	2.5%	12.2%	0.90	22.9%	6.6%	11:59	0:04
PIT @ COL	10.9%	0.12	22.1%	2.6%	12.6%	1.12	30.7%	10.6%	11:34	0:06
BOS @ ANA	12.5%	0.13	30.1%	5.1%	20.1%	1.11	30.2%	10.4%	10:03	0:48
BOS @ ANA	12.4%	0.13	26.5%	3.9%	16.1%	1.03	27.6%	8.9%	9:50	0:01
PIT @ COL	8.7%	0.09	19.1%	2.0%	11.4%	0.90	22.9%	6.6%	7:43	0:51

Defense

Rank by


BOS @ ANA	17.1%	0.19	59.5%	22.9%	51.2%	1.81	53.2%	27.3%	24:58	3:39
PIT @ COL	21.3%	0.24	63.1%	26.3%	53.1%	2.44	68.8%	43.6%	22:11	4:19
PIT @ COL	12.9%	0.14	51.6%	16.5%	44.4%	2.07	60.4%	34.2%	22:57	4:04
BOS @ ANA	13.2%	0.14	46.5%	13.0%	38.3%	1.68	49.6%	24.1%	23:55	2:18
PIT @ COL	10.4%	0.11	40.5%	9.6%	33.6%	1.62	47.8%	22.6%	21:23	2:34
PIT @ COL	7.0%	0.07	32.7%	6.1%	27.7%	1.46	42.4%	18.4%	20:08	1:52
BOS @ ANA	6.7%	0.07	28.2%	4.4%	23.1%	1.32	37.8%	15.1%	20:30	1:00
BOS @ ANA	5.5%	0.06	23.7%	3.1%	19.3%	1.27	36.0%	13.9%	20:00	0:07
BOS @ ANA	7.2%	0.07	29.5%	4.9%	24.1%	0.99	25.9%	8.1%	19:21	0:29
BOS @ ANA	8.1%	0.08	28.9%	4.7%	22.7%	1.11	30.5%	10.6%	18:58	0:22
PIT @ COL	8.2%	0.09	31.5%	5.6%	25.4%	1.83	53.8%	27.8%	17:23	0:33
PIT @ COL	4.6%	0.05	25.7%	3.6%	22.1%	0.97	25.4%	7.8%	18:59	0:12
BOS @ ANA	6.6%	0.07	27.2%	4.1%	22.1%	1.24	34.9%	13.2%	16:59	1:44
BOS @ ANA	5.8%	0.06	29.9%	5.0%	25.6%	1.12	30.8%	10.7%	18:44	0:01
BOS @ ANA	3.9%	0.04	18.1%	1.7%	14.7%	0.94	24.4%	7.3%	19:12	0:00
PIT @ COL	4.7%	0.05	20.6%	2.3%	16.7%	1.18	32.7%	11.9%	18:17	0:03
BOS @ ANA	6.7%	0.07	26.9%	4.0%	21.7%	1.01	26.7%	8.5%	17:07	1:01
PIT @ COL	4.6%	0.05	15.8%	1.3%	11.8%	1.06	28.4%	9.4%	18:12	0:00
PIT @ COL	7.5%	0.08	26.3%	3.8%	20.3%	1.69	49.9%	24.3%	16:41	0:14
PIT @ COL	3.4%	0.04	19.3%	2.0%	16.4%	0.80	19.1%	4.9%	17:14	0:02
PIT @ COL	5.8%	0.06	26.0%	3.7%	21.4%	1.33	38.1%	15.3%	16:01	0:01
BOS @ ANA	3.8%	0.04	20.9%	2.4%	17.8%	0.79	18.9%	4.8%	15:41	0:00
BOS @ ANA	4.8%	0.05	18.9%	1.9%	14.8%	1.20	33.6%	12.4%	14:38	0:00
PIT @ COL	2.7%	0.03	12.6%	0.8%	10.2%	0.78	18.6%	4.7%	14:31	0:01
PIT @ COL	2.2%	0.02	12.3%	0.8%	10.3%	0.57	11.2%	2.1%	11:23	0:02

Tim Hortons Hockey Challenge: one pick per group, and each pick counts if that player scores. Every group is ranked by the model's chance to score. The three best picks: 0.87 expected scorers, 2.1% that all three score.

Group 1

Beckett Sennecke ANA vs BOS · 2.7 SOG · 19:39 TOI Best39%
Cutter Gauthier ANA vs BOS · 3.2 SOG · 15:13 TOI 38%
Martin Necas COL vs PIT · 2.7 SOG · 21:03 TOI 37%
Leo Carlsson ANA vs BOS · 2.4 SOG · 19:49 TOI 37%
David Pastrnak BOS @ ANA · 3.2 SOG · 19:29 TOI 36%
Morgan Geekie BOS @ ANA · 1.9 SOG · 17:06 TOI 27%
Pavel Zacha BOS @ ANA · 1.6 SOG · 17:16 TOI 22%

Group 2

Nazem Kadri COL vs PIT · 2.8 SOG · 19:07 TOI Best31%
Brock Nelson COL vs PIT · 2.2 SOG · 18:49 TOI 30%
Rickard Rakell PIT @ COL · 2.4 SOG · 19:30 TOI 29%
Sidney Crosby PIT @ COL · 2.3 SOG · 19:24 TOI 29%
Bryan Rust PIT @ COL · 2.1 SOG · 18:33 TOI 28%
Artturi Lehkonen COL vs PIT · 1.9 SOG · 18:29 TOI 28%
Gabriel Landeskog COL vs PIT · 2.0 SOG · 15:56 TOI 25%
JJ Peterka BOS @ ANA · 1.9 SOG · 15:47 TOI 23%
Alex Killorn ANA vs BOS · 1.9 SOG · 16:51 TOI 23%
Cale Makar COL vs PIT · 2.4 SOG · 22:11 TOI 21%
Fraser Minten BOS @ ANA · 1.7 SOG · 16:09 TOI 19%
Judd Caulfield ANA vs BOS · 1.4 SOG · 12:58 TOI 18%
Jaden Schwartz COL vs PIT · 1.5 SOG · 12:46 TOI 17%
Nikita Nesterenko ANA vs BOS · 1.2 SOG · 12:15 TOI 14%

Group 3

A.J. Greer ANA vs BOS · 1.5 SOG · 12:07 TOI Best17%
Jackson LaCombe ANA vs BOS · 1.8 SOG · 24:58 TOI 17%
Frank Vatrano ANA vs BOS · 1.5 SOG · 11:22 TOI 16%
Casey Mittelstadt BOS @ ANA · 1.2 SOG · 14:05 TOI 15%
Matthew Poitras BOS @ ANA · 1.3 SOG · 11:54 TOI 14%
Charlie McAvoy BOS @ ANA · 1.7 SOG · 23:55 TOI 13%
Nick Robertson PIT @ COL · 1.4 SOG · 11:35 TOI 13%
Andrei Kuzmenko PIT @ COL · 1.1 SOG · 12:18 TOI 13%
Erik Karlsson PIT @ COL · 2.1 SOG · 22:57 TOI 13%
Mark Kastelic BOS @ ANA · 1.1 SOG · 11:50 TOI 12%
Connor Dewar PIT @ COL · 1.3 SOG · 13:18 TOI 11%
Marat Khusnutdinov BOS @ ANA · 1.0 SOG · 14:08 TOI 11%
Elmer Soderblom PIT @ COL · 1.1 SOG · 11:34 TOI 11%
Devon Toews COL vs PIT · 1.6 SOG · 21:23 TOI 10%
Gavin Brindley COL vs PIT · 0.9 SOG · 7:43 TOI 9%

Groups via timnhlassist.com, refreshed hourly. Not affiliated with Tim Hortons. Percentages are model estimates, not betting lines.

NHL predictions Fri, Oct 16

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Games

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Players

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Tims Hockey Challenge

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3