NHL predictions Wed, Oct 14

Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →

2 games on this slate · model went 1–1 · 112–72 last 30 days →

‹ ›

Updated 12d ago

✓ Favorite won Final · Wed, Oct 14

Canadiens

4 41.7% · proj 3.1

Capitals

5 58.3% · proj 3.6

ModelClose

WSH win 58.3% 52.2%

Total 6.8 6.5

Our bet WSH -125 ✓ Won

Set at line WSH 53.2% · model 60.7%

✗ Favorite lost Final · Wed, Oct 14

Stars

3 37.9% · proj 2.6

Avalanche

2 62.1% · proj 3.4

ModelMarket

COL win 62.1% 59.3%

Total 6.0 6.5

Our bet COL -135 ✗ Lost

Set at line COL 55.1% · model 62.1%

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Cole Caufield	41%	0.53	62%	3.31	83%	19:32	4:02
Alex Tuch	35%	0.42	59%	2.37	67%	19:12	1:54
Nick Suzuki	33%	0.40	69%	2.41	68%	22:23	4:04
Alex Ovechkin	32%	0.38	56%	2.48	70%	15:22	3:42
Juraj Slafkovsky	30%	0.35	56%	2.38	68%	19:41	4:04
Tom Wilson	29%	0.34	56%	1.99	58%	19:28	2:16
Dylan Strome	24%	0.27	59%	1.72	51%	17:06	2:40
Chris Kreider	24%	0.27	43%	1.73	51%	15:21	3:41
Ryan Leonard	23%	0.26	48%	1.99	58%	14:09	2:06
Aliaksei Protas	23%	0.26	49%	1.74	51%	16:32	0:04
Boone Jenner	22%	0.24	43%	1.92	56%	15:39	0:02
Jordan Kyrou	21%	0.23	44%	1.82	54%	12:56	1:40
Alex Newhook	18%	0.20	34%	1.44	42%	15:47	1:27
Zack Bolduc	17%	0.19	34%	1.53	45%	14:21	1:21
Anthony Beauvillier	17%	0.19	30%	1.54	45%	12:59	0:04
Justin Sourdif	17%	0.18	37%	1.28	36%	13:40	0:52
Ilya Protas	16%	0.17	42%	1.34	39%	12:48	1:43
Alexandre Texier	15%	0.16	33%	1.51	44%	14:14	1:29
Josh Anderson	14%	0.15	25%	1.33	38%	13:58	0:02
Ethen Frank	13%	0.14	28%	1.14	32%	10:19	0:56
Phillip Danault	12%	0.12	29%	1.29	37%	15:56	0:08
Kirby Dach	11%	0.11	24%	0.97	25%	11:03	1:15
Jake Evans	10%	0.11	24%	1.05	28%	14:11	0:01
Owen Beck	8%	0.08	17%	0.90	23%	8:58	0:00

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Jakob Chychrun	23%	0.26	53%	2.56	71%	24:00	2:34
Lane Hutson	12%	0.13	62%	1.65	48%	26:03	4:11
Cole Hutson	10%	0.11	41%	1.74	51%	18:32	1:57
Noah Dobson	10%	0.10	37%	1.81	53%	21:21	1:25
Martin Fehervary	6%	0.06	31%	0.94	24%	21:40	0:06
Kaiden Guhle	5%	0.05	22%	1.12	31%	20:24	0:04
Timothy Liljegren	5%	0.05	22%	0.94	24%	18:46	0:03
Alexandre Carrier	4%	0.04	20%	0.90	23%	19:22	0:01
Adam Engstrom	3%	0.03	14%	0.87	22%	12:26	0:23
Vincent Desharnais	3%	0.03	18%	0.69	15%	19:40	0:00
Arber Xhekaj	2%	0.02	9%	0.66	14%	11:58	0:02

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Nathan MacKinnon	42%	0.54	77%	3.59	86%	21:15	4:21
Jason Robertson	36%	0.45	62%	2.95	78%	20:12	3:44
Martin Necas	35%	0.44	69%	2.52	70%	21:47	4:24
Mikko Rantanen	30%	0.35	62%	2.16	63%	20:35	3:52
Nazem Kadri	27%	0.32	53%	2.51	70%	18:53	3:37
Brock Nelson	27%	0.32	49%	1.97	58%	18:39	2:16
Artturi Lehkonen	26%	0.30	45%	1.76	52%	18:40	1:44
Roope Hintz	25%	0.28	49%	2.03	59%	17:07	3:03
Gabriel Landeskog	23%	0.26	45%	1.82	54%	16:42	2:46
T.J. Hughes	21%	0.24	43%	1.92	57%	14:31	3:57
Tyler Seguin	19%	0.21	38%	1.66	49%	15:37	1:21
Jaden Schwartz	16%	0.17	33%	1.38	40%	13:05	1:33
Jamie Benn	14%	0.15	33%	1.25	35%	13:07	0:55
Justin Hryckowian	14%	0.15	29%	1.17	32%	14:26	1:01
Sam Steel	13%	0.14	29%	1.23	35%	16:51	0:06
Parker Kelly	12%	0.12	25%	1.10	30%	12:41	0:01
Nicolas Roy	12%	0.12	28%	1.04	28%	12:02	0:48
Arttu Hyry	12%	0.12	22%	1.15	32%	13:18	0:02
Fedor Svechkov	10%	0.11	25%	0.98	26%	12:25	0:07
Colin Blackwell	9%	0.09	18%	0.94	24%	11:02	0:00
Joel Kiviranta	8%	0.09	16%	0.90	23%	10:25	0:03
Oskar Back	8%	0.08	18%	0.74	17%	13:15	0:01
Radek Faksa	7%	0.07	18%	0.75	18%	11:13	0:01

	Scoring	Shots	Usage
Miro Heiskanen	11%	0.11	43%	1.65	48%	24:45	3:12
Thomas Harley	11%	0.11	36%	1.66	49%	24:18	1:36
Devon Toews	10%	0.10	39%	1.53	45%	22:03	2:28
Sam Malinski	8%	0.08	31%	1.67	49%	18:31	0:38
Brent Burns	7%	0.08	26%	1.61	47%	18:02	0:16
Josh Manson	6%	0.06	26%	1.28	36%	17:38	0:01
Esa Lindell	5%	0.05	23%	0.93	24%	21:49	0:30
Brett Kulak	4%	0.04	20%	1.10	30%	18:47	0:03
Nils Lundkvist	4%	0.04	18%	0.96	25%	17:12	0:07
Tyler Myers	4%	0.04	15%	0.87	22%	15:41	0:01
Lian Bichsel	3%	0.03	12%	0.64	14%	16:06	0:01
Noah Juulsen	2%	0.02	13%	0.56	11%	13:09	0:03

Anytime goal board

Nathan MacKinnon42%
Cole Caufield41%
Jason Robertson36%
Martin Necas35%
Alex Tuch35%

Forwards

Rank by


DAL @ COL	42.0%	0.54	77.1%	43.4%	60.6%	3.59	85.9%	68.0%	21:15	4:21
MTL @ WSH	32.7%	0.40	69.0%	32.7%	53.9%	2.41	68.2%	42.9%	22:23	4:04
DAL @ COL	35.5%	0.44	68.5%	32.1%	51.2%	2.52	70.5%	45.7%	21:47	4:24
MTL @ WSH	41.1%	0.53	62.0%	25.2%	35.6%	3.31	82.8%	63.0%	19:32	4:02
DAL @ COL	36.4%	0.45	62.2%	25.4%	40.6%	2.95	77.9%	55.6%	20:12	3:44
DAL @ COL	29.5%	0.35	61.7%	24.9%	45.7%	2.16	62.6%	36.5%	20:35	3:52
MTL @ WSH	29.8%	0.35	56.3%	20.1%	37.7%	2.38	67.6%	42.2%	19:41	4:04
DAL @ COL	27.5%	0.32	53.1%	17.6%	35.4%	2.51	70.3%	45.4%	18:53	3:37
MTL @ WSH	34.6%	0.42	59.4%	22.8%	37.9%	2.37	67.2%	41.7%	19:12	1:54
MTL @ WSH	28.8%	0.34	55.8%	19.7%	38.0%	1.99	58.4%	32.2%	19:28	2:16
DAL @ COL	27.3%	0.32	49.0%	14.6%	29.8%	1.97	57.7%	31.5%	18:39	2:16
DAL @ COL	24.5%	0.28	49.2%	14.8%	32.7%	2.03	59.4%	33.2%	17:07	3:03
MTL @ WSH	31.6%	0.38	55.6%	19.6%	35.1%	2.48	69.7%	44.7%	15:22	3:42
DAL @ COL	25.9%	0.30	45.5%	12.4%	26.5%	1.76	51.9%	26.1%	18:40	1:44
MTL @ WSH	23.8%	0.27	58.7%	22.2%	45.8%	1.72	50.7%	25.0%	17:06	2:40
DAL @ COL	23.2%	0.26	45.4%	12.4%	28.9%	1.82	53.6%	27.6%	16:42	2:46
MTL @ WSH	23.5%	0.27	42.8%	10.8%	25.2%	1.73	50.9%	25.2%	15:21	3:41
DAL @ COL	21.4%	0.24	42.6%	10.7%	26.9%	1.92	56.5%	30.3%	14:31	3:57
MTL @ WSH	23.2%	0.26	48.2%	14.1%	32.6%	1.99	58.2%	32.0%	14:09	2:06
MTL @ WSH	22.5%	0.26	48.8%	14.5%	33.9%	1.74	51.4%	25.6%	16:32	0:04
DAL @ COL	19.3%	0.21	38.5%	8.6%	23.8%	1.66	49.0%	23.5%	15:37	1:21
MTL @ WSH	17.8%	0.20	33.5%	6.4%	19.1%	1.44	41.9%	18.0%	15:47	1:27
MTL @ WSH	21.7%	0.24	42.9%	10.9%	27.1%	1.92	56.4%	30.2%	15:39	0:02
DAL @ COL	13.3%	0.14	29.4%	4.8%	18.5%	1.23	34.8%	13.1%	16:51	0:06
MTL @ WSH	17.5%	0.19	33.9%	6.5%	19.9%	1.53	44.6%	20.0%	14:21	1:21
MTL @ WSH	14.8%	0.16	32.8%	6.1%	21.2%	1.51	44.2%	19.7%	14:14	1:29
MTL @ WSH	11.6%	0.12	28.7%	4.6%	19.4%	1.29	36.8%	14.4%	15:56	0:08
MTL @ WSH	20.8%	0.23	44.2%	11.6%	29.5%	1.82	53.6%	27.6%	12:56	1:40
DAL @ COL	14.0%	0.15	28.6%	4.5%	17.0%	1.17	32.4%	11.7%	14:26	1:01
MTL @ WSH	15.9%	0.17	41.5%	10.1%	30.4%	1.34	38.5%	15.6%	12:48	1:43
DAL @ COL	15.9%	0.17	32.9%	6.1%	20.2%	1.38	39.9%	16.5%	13:05	1:33
MTL @ WSH	16.6%	0.18	37.4%	8.1%	25.0%	1.28	36.3%	14.1%	13:40	0:52
DAL @ COL	14.3%	0.15	32.8%	6.1%	21.5%	1.25	35.3%	13.5%	13:07	0:55
MTL @ WSH	14.0%	0.15	24.6%	3.3%	12.3%	1.33	38.1%	15.3%	13:58	0:02
MTL @ WSH	10.5%	0.11	24.2%	3.2%	15.3%	1.05	28.3%	9.3%	14:11	0:01
MTL @ WSH	17.0%	0.19	30.2%	5.1%	15.9%	1.54	45.0%	20.3%	12:59	0:04
DAL @ COL	11.6%	0.12	22.1%	2.7%	11.9%	1.15	31.7%	11.2%	13:18	0:02
DAL @ COL	11.7%	0.12	28.1%	4.4%	18.6%	1.04	27.8%	9.1%	12:02	0:48
DAL @ COL	11.7%	0.12	25.1%	3.5%	15.2%	1.10	30.0%	10.3%	12:41	0:01
DAL @ COL	7.9%	0.08	17.9%	1.7%	10.8%	0.74	17.0%	4.1%	13:15	0:01
DAL @ COL	10.4%	0.11	24.7%	3.3%	16.0%	0.98	25.7%	7.9%	12:25	0:07
MTL @ WSH	10.8%	0.11	23.5%	3.0%	14.2%	0.97	25.4%	7.8%	11:03	1:15
MTL @ WSH	12.9%	0.14	28.5%	4.5%	17.9%	1.14	31.5%	11.2%	10:19	0:56
DAL @ COL	8.6%	0.09	18.2%	1.8%	10.5%	0.94	24.2%	7.2%	11:02	0:00
DAL @ COL	7.2%	0.07	18.3%	1.8%	12.0%	0.75	17.5%	4.3%	11:13	0:01
DAL @ COL	8.4%	0.09	16.0%	1.4%	8.3%	0.90	22.9%	6.6%	10:25	0:03
MTL @ WSH	8.0%	0.08	17.0%	1.5%	9.8%	0.90	22.9%	6.6%	8:58	0:00

Defense

Rank by


MTL @ WSH	12.3%	0.13	61.8%	25.0%	56.5%	1.65	48.5%	23.1%	26:03	4:11
MTL @ WSH	22.6%	0.26	52.8%	17.4%	39.0%	2.56	71.2%	46.6%	24:00	2:34
DAL @ COL	10.9%	0.11	43.4%	11.2%	36.5%	1.65	48.4%	23.1%	24:45	3:12
DAL @ COL	10.8%	0.11	36.4%	7.6%	28.7%	1.66	49.0%	23.6%	24:18	1:36
DAL @ COL	9.7%	0.10	39.4%	9.1%	32.9%	1.53	44.7%	20.1%	22:03	2:28
MTL @ WSH	9.6%	0.10	36.6%	7.7%	29.9%	1.81	53.3%	27.3%	21:21	1:25
DAL @ COL	4.8%	0.05	22.9%	2.8%	19.0%	0.93	23.8%	7.0%	21:49	0:30
MTL @ WSH	10.5%	0.11	41.1%	9.9%	34.2%	1.74	51.2%	25.5%	18:32	1:57
MTL @ WSH	6.0%	0.06	30.7%	5.3%	26.3%	0.94	24.2%	7.2%	21:40	0:06
MTL @ WSH	5.3%	0.05	21.5%	2.5%	17.1%	1.12	30.7%	10.7%	20:24	0:04
DAL @ COL	7.8%	0.08	30.8%	5.3%	25.0%	1.67	49.2%	23.7%	18:31	0:38
DAL @ COL	7.2%	0.08	26.3%	3.8%	20.5%	1.61	47.3%	22.2%	18:02	0:16
MTL @ WSH	4.0%	0.04	19.6%	2.1%	16.3%	0.90	22.8%	6.6%	19:22	0:01
MTL @ WSH	3.1%	0.03	17.7%	1.7%	15.1%	0.69	15.5%	3.5%	19:40	0:00
DAL @ COL	4.4%	0.04	20.0%	2.2%	16.3%	1.10	30.0%	10.3%	18:47	0:03
MTL @ WSH	5.2%	0.05	22.2%	2.7%	17.9%	0.94	24.4%	7.3%	18:46	0:03
DAL @ COL	5.8%	0.06	26.4%	3.8%	21.9%	1.28	36.3%	14.1%	17:38	0:01
DAL @ COL	4.2%	0.04	17.8%	1.7%	14.2%	0.96	24.9%	7.6%	17:12	0:07
DAL @ COL	3.7%	0.04	14.9%	1.2%	11.7%	0.87	21.8%	6.1%	15:41	0:01
DAL @ COL	3.0%	0.03	11.8%	0.7%	9.1%	0.64	13.6%	2.9%	16:06	0:01
MTL @ WSH	3.3%	0.03	14.5%	1.1%	11.6%	0.87	21.9%	6.1%	12:26	0:23
DAL @ COL	2.3%	0.02	13.2%	0.9%	11.1%	0.56	10.9%	2.0%	13:09	0:03
MTL @ WSH	2.3%	0.02	8.6%	0.4%	6.5%	0.66	14.5%	3.2%	11:58	0:02

Tim Hortons Hockey Challenge: one pick per group, and each pick counts if that player scores. Every group is ranked by the model's chance to score. The three best picks: 0.90 expected scorers, 2.4% that all three score.

Group 1

Cole Caufield MTL @ WSH · 3.3 SOG · 19:32 TOI Best41%
Jason Robertson DAL @ COL · 3.0 SOG · 20:12 TOI 36%
Martin Necas COL vs DAL · 2.5 SOG · 21:47 TOI 35%
Alex Tuch WSH vs MTL · 2.4 SOG · 19:12 TOI 35%
Nick Suzuki MTL @ WSH · 2.4 SOG · 22:23 TOI 33%
Alex Ovechkin WSH vs MTL · 2.5 SOG · 15:22 TOI 32%
Juraj SlafkovskÃÂÃÂ½ MTL @ WSH · 2.4 SOG · 19:41 TOI 30%
Mikko Rantanen DAL @ COL · 2.2 SOG · 20:35 TOI 30%
Tom Wilson WSH vs MTL · 2.0 SOG · 19:28 TOI 29%
Roope Hintz DAL @ COL · 2.0 SOG · 17:07 TOI 25%

Group 2

Nazem Kadri COL vs DAL · 2.5 SOG · 18:53 TOI Best27%
Brock Nelson COL vs DAL · 2.0 SOG · 18:39 TOI 27%
Artturi Lehkonen COL vs DAL · 1.8 SOG · 18:40 TOI 26%
Chris Kreider MTL @ WSH · 1.7 SOG · 15:21 TOI 24%
Aliaksei Protas WSH vs MTL · 1.7 SOG · 16:32 TOI 23%
Jordan Kyrou WSH vs MTL · 1.8 SOG · 12:56 TOI 21%
Tyler Seguin DAL @ COL · 1.7 SOG · 15:37 TOI 19%
Alex Newhook MTL @ WSH · 1.4 SOG · 15:47 TOI 18%
Anthony Beauvillier WSH vs MTL · 1.5 SOG · 12:59 TOI 17%
Ilya Protas WSH vs MTL · 1.3 SOG · 12:48 TOI 16%
Jaden Schwartz COL vs DAL · 1.4 SOG · 13:05 TOI 16%
Jamie Benn DAL @ COL · 1.2 SOG · 13:07 TOI 14%
Justin Hryckowian DAL @ COL · 1.2 SOG · 14:26 TOI 14%
Sam Steel DAL @ COL · 1.2 SOG · 16:51 TOI 13%
Devon Toews COL vs DAL · 1.5 SOG · 22:03 TOI 10%

Group 3

Boone Jenner WSH vs MTL · 1.9 SOG · 15:39 TOI Best22%
Justin Sourdif WSH vs MTL · 1.3 SOG · 13:40 TOI 17%
Alexandre Texier MTL @ WSH · 1.5 SOG · 14:14 TOI 15%
Ethen Frank WSH vs MTL · 1.1 SOG · 10:19 TOI 13%
Lane Hutson MTL @ WSH · 1.6 SOG · 26:03 TOI 12%
Parker Kelly COL vs DAL · 1.1 SOG · 12:41 TOI 12%
Nicolas Roy COL vs DAL · 1.0 SOG · 12:02 TOI 12%
Phillip Danault MTL @ WSH · 1.3 SOG · 15:56 TOI 12%
Miro Heiskanen DAL @ COL · 1.6 SOG · 24:45 TOI 11%
Kirby Dach MTL @ WSH · 1.0 SOG · 11:03 TOI 11%
Jake Evans MTL @ WSH · 1.1 SOG · 14:11 TOI 10%
Fedor Svechkov COL vs DAL · 1.0 SOG · 12:25 TOI 10%
Noah Dobson MTL @ WSH · 1.8 SOG · 21:21 TOI 10%
Sam Malinski COL vs DAL · 1.7 SOG · 18:31 TOI 8%

Groups via timnhlassist.com, refreshed hourly. Not affiliated with Tim Hortons. Percentages are model estimates, not betting lines.

NHL predictions Wed, Oct 14

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Player props

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Games

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Forwards

Defense

Ruled out

Goaltending

Recommended bet

Model vs market

Movement

Players

Anytime goal board

Forwards

Defense

Tims Hockey Challenge

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3