NBA predictions Thu, Nov 5
Win probabilities, projected scores and totals for every NBA game, plus player box-score lines. Methodology →
2 games on this slate · 10–5 since Nov 2 (model V5) →
Games
#23
Magic
45.6%
109.7
#19
Suns
54.4%
111.2
Projected total
220.9
Biggest factor: Back-to-back (PHX) · ORL +2.0 pts
#15
Heat
34.9%
114.2
#13
Warriors
65.1%
119.6
Projected total
233.8
Biggest factor: Back-to-back (MIA) · GSW +2.0 pts
How we got this
Magic
109.7
Suns
111.2
How the numbers are built
MarginPHX by 1.5
- Neutral-court rating gappace x offense and defense ratings PHX +1.6
- Home courtfit on league-wide home results PHX +1.8
- Injuries and absencesPHX -0.1, ORL -0.2 PHX +0.2
- Back-to-back (PHX) ORL +2.0
Total220.9 pts
- League-average game226.8
- Pace97.9 possessions vs 99.7 average -4.2
- Offense vs defense +1.4
- Home court +0.0
- League scoring trendgames in the last two weeks ran -4.7 points vs our totals -2.8
- Scoring level pulled toward averagehigh- and low-scoring matchups are partly shrunk -0.3
Team comparison
|
ORL |
PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive ratingpts/100 | 111.922nd of 30 | 114.114th of 30 |
| Defensive ratingpts/100 | 114.922nd of 30 | 115.525th of 30 |
| Net ratingpts/100 | -3.023rd of 30 | -1.518th of 30 |
| Paceposs/48 | 98.525th of 30 | 98.923rd of 30 |
Who is out
- J. Suggs ORL Out · -1.7 pts 0 min tonight vs 14 in the rating, 99% to sit
- P. Banchero ORL Out · -1.5 pts 0 min tonight vs 9 in the rating, 99% to sit
- N. Penda ORL Out · +0.0 pts 0 min tonight vs 0 in the rating, 99% to sit
- I. Nelson ORL Out · +0.0 pts 0 min tonight vs 0 in the rating, 99% to sit
- J. Isaac ORL Out · +0.0 pts 0 min tonight vs 0 in the rating, 99% to sit
- Unlisted rotation, net PHX Not yet reported (each 24% to sit) · -2.9 pts PHX not yet reported; ORL on report (each 11%); net; includes minutes they take over
Conditions
- Rest (PHX)1 day (back-to-back)
- Rest (ORL)3 days
- Neutral siteNo
Model V5 · data as of · Sources: NBA Stats API (box scores, schedule), Official NBA injury report. How the models work →
How we got this
Heat
114.2
Warriors
119.6
How the numbers are built
MarginGSW by 5.3
- Neutral-court rating gappace x offense and defense ratings GSW +1.2
- Home courtfit on league-wide home results GSW +1.9
- Injuries and absencesGSW +0.3, MIA -0.0 GSW +0.3
- Back-to-back (MIA) GSW +2.0
Total233.8 pts
- League-average game226.8
- Pace102.5 possessions vs 99.7 average +6.3
- Offense vs defense +4.2
- Home court +0.0
- League scoring trendgames in the last two weeks ran -4.7 points vs our totals -2.8
- Scoring level pulled toward averagehigh- and low-scoring matchups are partly shrunk -0.8
Team comparison
|
MIA |
GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive ratingpts/100 | 114.513th of 30 | 115.38th of 30 |
| Defensive ratingpts/100 | 114.821st of 30 | 114.417th of 30 |
| Net ratingpts/100 | -0.217th of 30 | 0.914th of 30 |
| Paceposs/48 | 102.52nd of 30 | 99.918th of 30 |
Who is out
- G. Santos GSW Out · -1.7 pts 0 min tonight vs 15 in the rating, 99% to sit
- K. Porziņģis GSW Out · +0.0 pts 0 min tonight vs 0 in the rating, 99% to sit
- M. Moody GSW Out · +0.0 pts 0 min tonight vs 0 in the rating, 99% to sit
- J. Butler III GSW Out · +0.0 pts 0 min tonight vs 0 in the rating, 99% to sit
- Unlisted rotation, net MIA Not yet reported (each 24% to sit) · -2.2 pts MIA not yet reported; GSW on report (each 11%); net; includes minutes they take over
Conditions
- Rest (GSW)3 days
- Rest (MIA)1 day (back-to-back)
- Neutral siteNo
Model V5 · data as of · Sources: NBA Stats API (box scores, schedule), Official NBA injury report. How the models work →
Players
Points leaders
- Stephen Curry26.5 pts
- Giannis Antetokounmpo26.3 pts
- Franz Wagner22.0 pts
- Devin Booker20.5 pts
- Desmond Bane18.1 pts
Rank by
|
MIA @ GSW | 26.3 | 9.3 | 0.79 | 5.4 | 3.41 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.04 | 0.85 | 3.17 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 26.5 | 4.0 | 3.77 | 7.2 | 0.51 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 1.08 | 0.19 | 1.87 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 22.0 | 6.5 | 1.58 | 4.2 | 1.04 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 3.66 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 20.5 | 6.1 | 1.26 | 4.6 | 0.53 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 0.88 | 0.30 | 1.94 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 16.1 | 4.8 | 1.00 | 3.5 | 2.03 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.81 | 0.72 | 2.17 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 17.4 | 3.6 | 2.01 | 4.2 | 2.31 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 0.84 | 0.52 | 2.45 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 18.1 | 2.5 | 3.38 | 3.0 | 0.71 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.16 | 0.84 | 2.40 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 16.2 | 4.1 | 2.02 | 2.0 | 1.28 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 1.33 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 14.3 | 2.9 | 1.71 | 3.4 | 0.48 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 1.07 | 0.55 | 2.10 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 15.3 | 3.3 | 2.16 | 2.2 | 1.21 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 1.04 | 0.32 | 1.70 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 13.5 | 3.4 | 1.76 | 1.5 | 0.52 | 1.4 | 6.8 | 1.10 | 0.52 | 2.48 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 14.5 | 3.3 | 1.64 | 3.0 | 0.76 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.87 | 0.14 | 1.42 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 10.2 | 2.4 | 0.87 | 2.8 | 2.07 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 1.12 | 0.41 | 1.46 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 12.1 | 3.7 | 1.14 | 1.4 | 0.49 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.81 | 0.61 | 1.97 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 12.6 | 3.1 | 1.08 | 3.2 | 0.76 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.73 | 0.33 | 1.37 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 10.4 | 2.1 | 0.85 | 3.6 | 0.81 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.12 | 0.13 | 1.51 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 12.2 | 1.9 | 2.68 | 0.4 | 1.06 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.64 | 0.46 | 1.18 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 9.8 | 1.3 | 1.89 | 1.4 | 1.00 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.08 | 0.43 | 1.27 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 8.8 | 0.8 | 2.23 | 0.6 | 0.90 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 1.57 | 0.13 | 1.79 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 8.2 | 1.7 | 1.38 | 0.6 | 0.68 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.78 | 0.63 | 1.14 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.61 | 0.7 | 0.97 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 1.04 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 10.8 | 0.8 | 2.97 | 0.4 | 0.18 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 0.95 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 1.61 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.52 | 0.25 | 1.26 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 8.6 | 2.3 | 1.11 | 0.8 | 0.74 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.74 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.09 | 1.6 | 1.61 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.65 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.32 | 0.6 | 0.99 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 2.11 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.13 | 1.3 | 1.37 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 1.11 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 7.0 | 1.4 | 1.25 | 0.5 | 1.06 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.61 | 0.16 | 1.03 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.35 | 0.2 | 1.16 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 7.0 | 0.8 | 1.39 | 1.3 | 0.47 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.73 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 6.2 | 0.9 | 1.10 | 1.0 | 0.51 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 5.0 | 0.6 | 1.13 | 0.3 | 0.58 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 5.5 | 0.8 | 1.18 | 0.4 | 0.23 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 6.0 | 0.3 | 1.54 | 0.8 | 0.35 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.66 | 0.2 | 0.85 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.62 | 0.4 | 0.98 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.59 | 0.20 | 0.53 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.53 | 0.8 | 0.41 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.37 | 0.58 | 0.49 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.52 | 0.3 | 0.60 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.26 | 0.61 | 0.56 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0.5 | 0.47 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.18 | 0.41 | 0.31 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.44 | 0.5 | 0.55 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 0.50 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.29 | 0.6 | 1.09 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.37 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 1.2 | 0.83 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.29 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.33 | 0.8 | 0.15 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.17 | 0.5 | 0.60 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.60 | 0.4 | 0.29 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.32 | 0.4 | 0.17 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.25 | 0.77 | 0.39 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.31 | 0.5 | 0.50 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.45 | 0.4 | 0.18 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.28 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.00 | 0.3 | 0.10 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.46 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.54 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.14 |
|
ORL @ PHX | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.00 | 0.2 | 0.19 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.02 | 0.1 | 0.17 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0.1 | 0.09 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
|
MIA @ GSW | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.3 | 0.09 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.15 |