NBA predictions Tue, Oct 20
Win probabilities, projected scores and totals for every NBA game, plus player box-score lines. Methodology →
3 games on this slate · model went 1–2 · 29–14 last 30 days →
Games
Set at line BOS -1.5 · model DET -1.9
Set at line NYK -4.5 · model NYK -3.8
Set at line OKC -1.5 · model SAS -1.0
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Celtics 113, Pistons 121
- Result
- DET won by 8, could lose by up to 1
- Why
- Model DET -1.9, first line BOS -1.5: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- DET -1.9
- First line
- DET -1.5
- Latest
- BOS -1.5
BOS -1.5 at -112 · opened DET -1.5
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- 49.6%
- Latest
- 47.4%
Moneyline DET +102 / BOS -122 (vig removed) · opened 49.6%
- Model
- 226.5
- First line
- 220.5
- Latest
- 220.5
Over -108 / Under -112
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 49.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- Closing line · DraftKings · Tue 2:40 PM ET · moneyline from Tue 10:45 AM
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- 76ers 106, Knicks 100
- Result
- PHI won by 6, could lose by up to 4
- Why
- Model NYK -3.8, first line NYK -4.5: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- NYK -3.8
- First line
- NYK -5.5
- Latest
- NYK -4.5
NYK -4.5 at -108 · opened NYK -5.5
- Model
- 60.2%
- First line
- 62.2%
- Latest
- 61.6%
Moneyline NYK -180 / PHI +150 (vig removed) · opened 62.2%
- Model
- 228.7
- First line
- 231.5
- Latest
- 230.5
Over -115 / Under -105 · opened 231.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 62.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- Closing line · DraftKings · Tue 6:41 PM ET · moneyline from Tue 10:45 AM
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Thunder 116, Spurs 104
- Result
- SAS lost by 12, could lose by up to 1
- Why
- Model SAS -1.0, first line OKC -1.5: the underdog
Model vs market
- Model
- SAS -1.0
- First line
- SAS -2.5
- Latest
- OKC -1.5
OKC -1.5 at -108 · opened SAS -2.5
- Model
- 52.8%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Latest
- 50.0%
Moneyline SAS -110 / OKC -110 (vig removed) · opened 55.1%
- Model
- 228.8
- First line
- 230.5
- Latest
- 229.5
Over -108 / Under -112 · opened 230.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- Closing line · DraftKings · Tue 9:11 PM ET · moneyline from Tue 10:45 AM
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Players
Points leaders
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander28.6 pts
- Victor Wembanyama24.5 pts
- Chet Holmgren23.4 pts
- Jalen Brunson22.8 pts
- Karl-Anthony Towns22.0 pts
|
OKC @ SAS | 28.6 | 8.4 | 1.45 | 7.5 | 0.64 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.30 | 0.68 | 1.87 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 24.5 | 6.7 | 1.95 | 5.2 | 1.67 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.96 | 2.43 | 2.17 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 22.0 | 6.3 | 1.40 | 5.3 | 2.51 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 0.72 | 0.51 | 3.23 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 23.4 | 6.7 | 1.87 | 4.5 | 1.93 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0.62 | 2.00 | 2.36 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 21.9 | 6.1 | 1.20 | 6.0 | 1.51 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0.47 | 1.16 | 2.52 |
|
BOS @ DET | 20.8 | 7.9 | 0.00 | 4.9 | 3.21 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 0.58 | 0.71 | 2.23 |
|
BOS @ DET | 21.3 | 4.5 | 2.85 | 3.8 | 0.75 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 1.17 | 0.21 | 2.54 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 22.8 | 6.1 | 2.05 | 4.4 | 0.42 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 0.73 | 0.13 | 2.10 |
|
BOS @ DET | 16.3 | 4.4 | 1.40 | 3.4 | 0.71 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 0.90 | 0.64 | 2.48 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 17.7 | 5.2 | 1.16 | 3.8 | 0.92 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.76 | 0.23 | 2.27 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 13.9 | 4.5 | 0.79 | 2.6 | 0.60 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 0.86 | 0.47 | 2.18 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 11.4 | 4.6 | 0.05 | 2.0 | 2.61 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 2.18 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.76 | 3.1 | 0.31 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.26 | 0.54 | 1.38 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 14.2 | 2.5 | 2.27 | 2.4 | 1.13 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.34 | 0.99 | 2.09 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 13.1 | 3.5 | 0.94 | 3.3 | 1.25 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 1.09 | 0.14 | 2.32 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 14.5 | 5.0 | 0.62 | 2.7 | 0.86 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.98 | 0.12 | 1.62 |
|
BOS @ DET | 11.1 | 4.5 | 0.08 | 1.9 | 2.63 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.69 | 1.27 | 1.46 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 14.5 | 4.1 | 1.45 | 2.0 | 0.50 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.10 | 0.18 | 1.70 |
|
BOS @ DET | 13.9 | 3.1 | 2.16 | 1.3 | 0.76 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 1.26 |
|
BOS @ DET | 12.3 | 2.5 | 1.88 | 1.7 | 0.42 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 1.04 | 0.21 | 1.41 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 12.5 | 3.6 | 1.23 | 1.6 | 1.42 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 1.07 |
|
BOS @ DET | 11.6 | 1.9 | 1.99 | 1.9 | 0.92 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.95 | 0.69 | 1.55 |
|
BOS @ DET | 11.2 | 3.5 | 0.97 | 1.4 | 1.29 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 1.31 |
|
BOS @ DET | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.00 | 0.9 | 3.64 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.81 | 1.25 | 1.09 |
|
BOS @ DET | 9.8 | 2.5 | 0.93 | 1.9 | 0.82 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 0.83 | 0.35 | 1.50 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.93 | 1.0 | 1.21 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.96 | 0.18 | 1.56 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.77 | 1.0 | 2.23 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 0.45 | 0.88 | 1.20 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.78 | 1.5 | 0.70 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.79 | 0.37 | 1.14 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 9.9 | 2.7 | 1.11 | 1.2 | 1.18 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 1.03 |
|
BOS @ DET | 9.6 | 2.6 | 0.99 | 1.4 | 1.97 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.97 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 9.4 | 3.1 | 0.70 | 1.1 | 0.69 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 1.18 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 8.2 | 1.2 | 1.63 | 1.0 | 0.77 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.72 | 0.41 | 1.14 |
|
BOS @ DET | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.04 | 1.1 | 1.71 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 0.98 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 10.2 | 1.4 | 2.21 | 0.7 | 0.52 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.76 | 0.60 | 0.44 |
|
BOS @ DET | 9.0 | 1.1 | 1.97 | 0.8 | 0.26 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.78 |
|
BOS @ DET | 8.1 | 0.9 | 2.01 | 0.2 | 0.17 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.48 | 0.21 | 1.22 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 8.3 | 2.2 | 1.10 | 0.6 | 0.72 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.04 | 0.77 | 0.42 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.68 | 1.5 | 0.56 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.86 | 0.23 | 0.82 |
|
BOS @ DET | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.63 | 1.2 | 0.82 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 1.11 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 1.3 | 1.92 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.80 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 8.8 | 1.5 | 1.57 | 1.0 | 0.44 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.77 | 0.19 | 0.81 |
|
BOS @ DET | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.71 | 1.5 | 0.76 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.70 | 0.19 | 1.19 |
|
BOS @ DET | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.94 | 0.2 | 0.63 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.77 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.95 | 0.8 | 0.53 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 1.09 |
|
BOS @ DET | 7.2 | 1.7 | 1.10 | 0.6 | 0.45 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.62 | 0.28 | 0.64 |
|
BOS @ DET | 6.2 | 0.8 | 1.42 | 0.4 | 0.96 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.68 | 0.08 | 0.83 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 7.4 | 1.5 | 1.25 | 0.6 | 0.41 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.55 |
|
BOS @ DET | 7.8 | 0.6 | 1.87 | 1.0 | 0.36 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.44 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.14 | 0.9 | 1.34 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.68 | 0.6 | 0.94 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.96 | 0.22 | 0.76 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 5.5 | 0.9 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 0.57 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.90 |
|
BOS @ DET | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.71 | 1.3 | 0.35 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.68 | 0.19 | 0.59 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 6.4 | 1.4 | 1.07 | 0.4 | 0.40 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.70 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 6.7 | 0.8 | 1.41 | 0.8 | 0.43 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.01 | 0.8 | 1.50 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.35 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.67 | 0.4 | 0.70 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.42 | 0.43 | 0.26 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.38 | 0.8 | 0.66 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.35 | 0.09 | 0.52 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.56 | 0.8 | 0.27 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.59 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.63 | 0.4 | 0.61 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.77 |
|
BOS @ DET | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.84 | 0.9 | 0.59 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.75 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.67 | 0.4 | 0.34 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.62 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.64 | 0.3 | 0.65 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.49 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.63 | 0.3 | 0.24 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.57 | 0.11 | 0.62 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.63 | 0.4 | 0.47 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.99 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.65 | 0.3 | 0.28 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
|
PHI @ NYK | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.00 | 0.5 | 0.51 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.71 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.20 | 0.2 | 0.40 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 1.39 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.47 | 0.3 | 0.72 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
|
BOS @ DET | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.38 | 0.3 | 0.72 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.34 |
|
BOS @ DET | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.21 | 0.1 | 0.52 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.34 |
|
OKC @ SAS | 2.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|
OKC @ SAS | 0.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |