The Forecast Card

College Football predictions Week 1, 2026

Win probabilities, projected scores, spreads and totals for every FBS game. FCS games are labeled and left out of the record. How it works →

51 games on this slate · model went 40–9 · 196–63 last 30 days →

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Updated 7h ago
✗ Favorite lost
North Carolina
15 16.4% · proj 18.5
TCU
10 83.6% · proj 34.7
Projected total 53.2
Projected spread TCU -16.2
✓ Favorite won
San José State
26 8.9% · proj 19.8
USC
42 91.1% · proj 42.1
Projected total 61.9
Projected spread USC -22.3
✓ Favorite won
NC State
8 36.9% · proj 23.1
Virginia
34 63.1% · proj 28.7
Projected total 51.8
Projected spread Virginia -5.6
Not in record
Jacksonville State
7 28.3% · proj 19.9
North Dakota State
33 71.7% · proj 29.5
Projected total 49.4
Projected spread North Dakota State -9.5
Not in record
Sacramento State
17 64.5% · proj 30.0
Eastern Michigan
28 35.5% · proj 23.9
Projected total 53.9
Projected spread Sacramento State -6.2
✓ Favorite won
Hawai'i
27 29.6% · proj 23.5
Stanford
37 70.4% · proj 32.4
Projected total 55.9
Projected spread Stanford -8.9
✓ Favorite won
New Mexico State
17 7.0% · proj 15.4
Florida State
34 93.0% · proj 39.8
Projected total 55.2
Projected spread Florida State -24.4
✗ Favorite lost
Memphis
27 38.2% · proj 27.6
UNLV
21 61.8% · proj 32.6
Projected total 60.2
Projected spread UNLV -5.0
✗ Favorite lost
Massachusetts
37 2.0% · proj 12.1
Rutgers
21 98.0% · proj 46.0
Projected total 58.1
Projected spread Rutgers -33.9
✓ Favorite won
Akron
16 5.7% · proj 15.1
Wake Forest
38 94.3% · proj 41.4
Projected total 56.5
Projected spread Wake Forest -26.2
✗ Favorite lost
Colorado
14 22.8% · proj 22.7
Georgia Tech
13 77.2% · proj 35.0
Projected total 57.7
Projected spread Georgia Tech -12.3
✓ Favorite won
UAB
23 14.9% · proj 21.2
Illinois
42 85.1% · proj 38.4
Projected total 59.6
Projected spread Illinois -17.2
✗ Favorite lost
San José State
27 43.8% · proj 27.2
Eastern Michigan
21 56.2% · proj 29.8
Projected total 57.0
Projected spread Eastern Michigan -2.5
✓ Favorite won
UTEP
0 1.6% · proj 9.6
Oklahoma
51 98.4% · proj 45.1
Projected total 54.7
Projected spread Oklahoma -35.5
✓ Favorite won
Toledo
20 40.7% · proj 25.1
Michigan State
30 59.3% · proj 29.0
Projected total 54.1
Projected spread Michigan State -3.9
✓ Favorite won
Miami
45 82.5% · proj 36.1
Stanford
6 17.5% · proj 20.6
Projected total 56.7
Projected spread Miami -15.5
✓ Favorite won
Fresno State
0 15.4% · proj 21.4
USC
39 84.6% · proj 38.4
Projected total 59.8
Projected spread USC -17.0
✓ Favorite won
East Carolina
10 6.8% · proj 16.4
Alabama
48 93.2% · proj 41.1
Projected total 57.5
Projected spread Alabama -24.7
✓ Favorite won
Oregon State
20 29.8% · proj 24.3
Houston
33 70.2% · proj 33.1
Projected total 57.4
Projected spread Houston -8.8
✓ Favorite won
Coastal Carolina
24 20.7% · proj 21.9
West Virginia
31 79.3% · proj 35.4
Projected total 57.3
Projected spread West Virginia -13.5
✓ Favorite won
North Texas
16 9.8% · proj 20.0
Indiana
52 90.2% · proj 41.4
Projected total 61.4
Projected spread Indiana -21.4
✓ Favorite won
Ohio
21 26.7% · proj 24.4
Nebraska
49 73.3% · proj 34.7
Projected total 59.1
Projected spread Nebraska -10.3
✓ Favorite won
Liberty
13 12.5% · proj 17.7
James Madison
20 87.5% · proj 36.7
Projected total 54.4
Projected spread James Madison -19.0
✓ Favorite won
Miami (OH)
14 12.7% · proj 15.4
Pittsburgh
59 87.3% · proj 34.3
Projected total 49.7
Projected spread Pittsburgh -18.9
✓ Favorite won
Ball State
3 0.1% · proj 3.0
Ohio State
56 99.9% · proj 55.1
Projected total 58.1
Projected spread Ohio State -52.1
✓ Favorite won
Kent State
0 3.2% · proj 14.8
South Carolina
57 96.8% · proj 45.5
Projected total 60.3
Projected spread South Carolina -30.7
✓ Favorite won
Baylor
16 32.9% · proj 23.3
Auburn
17 67.1% · proj 30.7
Projected total 54.0
Projected spread Auburn -7.4
✓ Favorite won
Texas State
7 9.4% · proj 19.2
Texas
59 90.6% · proj 41.0
Projected total 60.2
Projected spread Texas -21.8
✓ Favorite won
Boston College
15 33.7% · proj 25.7
Cincinnati
34 66.3% · proj 32.6
Projected total 58.3
Projected spread Cincinnati -7.0
✗ Favorite lost
Tulane
3 51.9% · proj 29.9
Duke
17 48.1% · proj 29.1
Projected total 59.0
Projected spread Tulane -0.8
✓ Favorite won
Boise State
27 11.1% · proj 18.4
Oregon
34 88.9% · proj 38.7
Projected total 57.1
Projected spread Oregon -20.3
✓ Favorite won
Marshall
0 8.0% · proj 14.1
Penn State
45 92.0% · proj 37.4
Projected total 51.5
Projected spread Penn State -23.3
✗ Favorite lost
Oklahoma State
10 55.2% · proj 29.1
Tulsa
24 44.8% · proj 27.0
Projected total 56.1
Projected spread Oklahoma State -2.2
✓ Favorite won
Northern Illinois
0 2.0% · proj 9.0
Iowa
40 98.0% · proj 43.0
Projected total 52.0
Projected spread Iowa -33.9
✗ Favorite lost
Wyoming
13 53.9% · proj 27.4
Colorado State
35 46.1% · proj 25.8
Projected total 53.2
Projected spread Wyoming -1.6
✓ Favorite won
Missouri State
0 2.7% · proj 13.1
Texas A&M
50 97.3% · proj 44.9
Projected total 58.0
Projected spread Texas A&M -31.8
✓ Favorite won
Arkansas State
24 12.9% · proj 19.6
Memphis
42 87.1% · proj 38.2
Projected total 57.8
Projected spread Memphis -18.6
✓ Favorite won
Florida International
9 9.8% · proj 18.8
South Florida
19 90.2% · proj 40.2
Projected total 59.0
Projected spread South Florida -21.4
✓ Favorite won
Sam Houston
21 14.7% · proj 16.5
Troy
24 85.3% · proj 33.9
Projected total 50.4
Projected spread Troy -17.4
✓ Favorite won
Clemson
10 46.5% · proj 26.0
LSU
51 53.5% · proj 27.4
Projected total 53.4
Projected spread LSU -1.5
✓ Favorite won
UL Monroe
13 8.3% · proj 15.7
Mississippi State
62 91.7% · proj 38.7
Projected total 54.4
Projected spread Mississippi State -23.0
✓ Favorite won
Western Michigan
12 10.7% · proj 17.6
Michigan
13 89.3% · proj 38.2
Projected total 55.8
Projected spread Michigan -20.6
✓ Favorite won
Florida Atlantic
21 9.5% · proj 18.7
Florida
66 90.5% · proj 40.5
Projected total 59.2
Projected spread Florida -21.7
✓ Favorite won
UNLV
21 55.2% · proj 31.4
Hawai'i
6 44.8% · proj 29.2
Projected total 60.6
Projected spread UNLV -2.2
✓ Favorite won
Central Michigan
7 41.6% · proj 25.5
New Mexico
38 58.4% · proj 29.0
Projected total 54.5
Projected spread New Mexico -3.5
✓ Favorite won
UCLA
45 50.5% · proj 27.9
California
24 49.5% · proj 27.7
Projected total 55.6
Projected spread UCLA -0.2
✗ Favorite lost
Western Kentucky
14 56.6% · proj 28.5
Nevada
49 43.4% · proj 25.7
Projected total 54.2
Projected spread Western Kentucky -2.7
✓ Favorite won
Washington State
10 17.3% · proj 20.4
Washington
24 82.7% · proj 36.0
Projected total 56.4
Projected spread Washington -15.6
✓ Favorite won
Louisville
38 36.9% · proj 27.8
Ole Miss
41 63.1% · proj 33.3
Projected total 61.1
Projected spread Ole Miss -5.5
✓ Favorite won
Wisconsin
13 9.7% · proj 15.5
Notre Dame
41 90.3% · proj 37.0
Projected total 52.5
Projected spread Notre Dame -21.5
✓ Favorite won
SMU
27 57.3% · proj 31.4
Florida State
24 42.7% · proj 28.4
Projected total 59.8
Projected spread SMU -3.0