The Forecast Card

All sports · Friday, October 23

Card for Fri, Oct 23

Every bet our models make that day, across every sport, at the line it was set at. Simulated 1 unit a game, not betting advice.

Bets
37
Settled
21–16
Units
-0.87
By start Win chance Edge
All Open Settled
  1. WTA 12:30 AM ET
    Bouzkova @ Bejlek Bouzkova -170 Moneyline Set at line Bouzkova 60.1% · model 61.0%
    61%win chance 60%market
    ✓ Won +0.59 Bouzkova 12, Bejlek 7
  2. WTA 1:30 AM ET
    Siniakova @ Stoiana Siniakova -278 Moneyline Set at line Siniakova 69.3% · model 77.4%
    77%win chance 69%market
    ✓ Won +0.36 Siniakova 12, Stoiana 3
  3. ATP 2:30 AM ET
    Mannarino @ Basilashvili Basilashvili -139 Moneyline Set at line Basilashvili 55.0% · model 57.4%
    57%win chance 55%market
    ✓ Won +0.72 Mannarino 4, Basilashvili 12
  4. WTA 3:00 AM ET
    Ruzic @ Boulter Ruzic +142 Moneyline Set at line Ruzic 39.0% · model 41.3%
    41%win chance 39%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Ruzic 12, Boulter 15
  5. ATP 4:00 AM ET
    Duckworth @ Tsitsipas Duckworth +328 Moneyline Set at line Duckworth 22.0% · model 25.5%
    26%win chance 22%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Duckworth 7, Tsitsipas 12
  6. WTA 4:00 AM ET
    Shnaider @ Jovic Shnaider +107 Moneyline Set at line Shnaider 46.0% · model 59.0%
    59%win chance 46%market
    ✓ Won +1.07 Shnaider 16, Jovic 10
  7. ATP 5:30 AM ET
    Atmane @ Medvedev Atmane +429 Moneyline Set at line Atmane 17.9% · model 18.7%
    19%win chance 18%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Atmane 8, Medvedev 12
  8. WTA 7:00 AM ET
    Kawa @ Rybakina Rybakina -1860 Moneyline Set at line Rybakina 90.6% · model 93.1%
    93%win chance 91%market
    ✓ Won +0.05 Kawa 8, Rybakina 15
  9. ATP 8:00 AM ET
    Cerundolo @ Chidekh Cerundolo -179 Moneyline Set at line Cerundolo 60.4% · model 67.1%
    67%win chance 60%market
    ✓ Won +0.56 Cerundolo 12, Chidekh 6
  10. ATP 8:00 AM ET
    Paul @ Moutet Moutet +271 Moneyline Set at line Moutet 25.5% · model 31.0%
    31%win chance 26%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Paul 15, Moutet 13
  11. ATP 9:30 AM ET
    Fritz @ Altmaier Fritz -370 Moneyline Set at line Fritz 74.3% · model 86.3%
    86%win chance 74%market
    ✓ Won +0.27 Fritz 13, Altmaier 8
  12. ATP 10:00 AM ET
    Lehecka @ Griekspoor Lehecka -286 Moneyline Set at line Lehecka 69.9% · model 75.0%
    75%win chance 70%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Lehecka 13, Griekspoor 16
  13. ATP 10:30 AM ET
    Khachanov @ Bublik Khachanov +106 Moneyline Set at line Khachanov 46.0% · model 55.2%
    55%win chance 46%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Khachanov 18, Bublik 18
  14. ATP 12:30 PM ET
    Michelsen @ Fils Fils -192 Moneyline Set at line Fils 61.9% · model 63.1%
    63%win chance 62%market
    ✓ Won +0.52 Michelsen 10, Fils 13
  15. ATP 1:00 PM ET
    Nakashima @ Cobolli Nakashima -196 Moneyline Set at line Nakashima 62.5% · model 69.3%
    69%win chance 63%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Nakashima 14, Cobolli 16
  16. ATP 2:00 PM ET
    Bergs @ Struff Bergs -222 Moneyline Set at line Bergs 65.1% · model 67.3%
    67%win chance 65%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Bergs 9, Struff 13
  17. ATP 2:30 PM ET
    Musetti @ Van Assche Musetti -238 Moneyline Set at line Musetti 66.4% · model 72.8%
    73%win chance 66%market
    ✓ Won +0.42 Musetti 19, Van Assche 17
  18. NBA 4:00 PM ET
    CHI @ MIL MIL -1.5 Spread Set at line MIL -1.5 · model MIL -4.2
    57%win chance 48%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 CHI 132, MIL 125
  19. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    DUKE @ UVA DUKE +2.5 Spread Set at line UVA -2.5 · model UVA -1.1
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 DUKE 19, UVA 16
  20. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    MASS @ CONN MASS +16.5 Spread Set at line CONN -16.5 · model CONN -12.8
    60%win chance 51%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 MASS 16, CONN 35
  21. NBA 7:00 PM ET
    NYK @ BOS BOS -2.5 Spread Set at line BOS -2.5 · model BOS -2.6
    50%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 NYK 103, BOS 107
  22. NBA 7:00 PM ET
    ATL @ CHA CHA +2.5 Spread Set at line ATL -2.5 · model CHA -3.0
    64%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 ATL 128, CHA 81
  23. NBA 7:00 PM ET
    DAL @ IND DAL +7.5 Spread Set at line IND -7.5 · model IND -3.1
    62%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 DAL 121, IND 105
  24. NBA 7:00 PM ET
    MIN @ ORL MIN +1.5 Spread Set at line ORL -1.5 · model MIN -0.7
    56%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 MIN 115, ORL 93
  25. NBA 7:00 PM ET
    TOR @ WAS WAS +8.5 Spread Set at line TOR -8.5 · model TOR -4.2
    61%win chance 49%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 TOR 112, WAS 102
  26. MLB 8:00 PM ET
    TB @ MIL TB +154 Moneyline Set at line TB 37.6% · model 41.8%
    42%win chance 38%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 TB 2, MIL 3
  27. NBA 8:00 PM ET
    DET @ MIA DET -1.5 Spread Set at line DET -1.5 · model DET -2.1
    52%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 DET 128, MIA 111
  28. NHL 8:00 PM ET
    MTL @ CHI CHI +142 Moneyline Set at line CHI 39.6% · model 40.2% · at the close
    40%win chance 40%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 MTL 4, CHI 1
  29. CFB 8:30 PM ET
    ARMY @ TLSA ARMY +1.5 Spread Set at line TLSA -1.5 · model ARMY -3.3
    62%win chance 53%market
    ✓ Won +0.82 ARMY 38, TLSA 35
  30. CFB 9:00 PM ET
    AF @ WYO AF -7.0 Spread Set at line AF -7.0 · model AF -7.7
    52%win chance 49%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 AF 14, WYO 28
  31. NHL 9:00 PM ET
    TBL @ COL COL -122 Moneyline Set at line COL 52.6% · model 53.5% · at the close
    54%win chance 53%market
    ✓ Won +0.82 TBL 3, COL 6
  32. NBA 9:30 PM ET
    HOU @ SAS HOU +5.5 Spread Set at line SAS -5.5 · model SAS -0.6
    63%win chance 52%market
    ✓ Won +0.85 HOU 114, SAS 110
  33. NBA 9:30 PM ET
    NOP @ UTA UTA +1.5 Spread Set at line NOP -1.5 · model NOP -0.2
    54%win chance 52%market
    ✓ Won +0.85 NOP 119, UTA 120
  34. NBA 10:00 PM ET
    MEM @ GSW MEM +4.5 Spread Set at line GSW -4.5 · model GSW -0.6
    60%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 MEM 111, GSW 108
  35. NBA 10:00 PM ET
    LAC @ LAL LAC +9.5 Spread Set at line LAL -9.5 · model LAL -1.9
    69%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 LAC 117, LAL 125
  36. NBA 10:00 PM ET
    POR @ SAC SAC +9.5 Spread Set at line POR -9.5 · model POR -5.5
    61%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 POR 128, SAC 120
  37. CFB 10:30 PM ET
    NCSU @ STAN NCSU -7.5 Spread Set at line NCSU -7.5 · model NCSU -9.9
    56%win chance 49%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 NCSU 28, STAN 31

Win chance is the model's chance the bet wins: its win probability for a moneyline, and for a spread its chance to cover, sized from how far its margins have missed over the last 30 days. Market is the same chance from the prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. Edge is the gap between the two, in points.