The Forecast Card

All sports · Sunday, October 11

Card for Sun, Oct 11

Every bet our models make that day, across every sport, at the line it was set at. Simulated 1 unit a game, not betting advice.

Bets
29
Settled
15–13–1
Units
+1.10
By start Win chance Edge
All Open Settled
  1. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Gea @ Shelton Gea +241 Moneyline Set at line Gea 28.0% · model 29.7%
    30%win chance 28%market
    ✓ Won +2.41 Gea 14, Shelton 12
  2. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Mannarino @ Khachanov Khachanov -363 Moneyline Set at line Khachanov 74.8% · model 77.1%
    77%win chance 75%market
    ✓ Won +0.28 Mannarino 6, Khachanov 12
  3. ATP 1:30 AM ET
    Sakamoto @ De Minaur De Minaur -280 Moneyline Set at line De Minaur 70.3% · model 71.1%
    71%win chance 70%market
    ✓ Won +0.36 Sakamoto 10, De Minaur 13
  4. ATP 1:30 AM ET
    Zhou @ Hurkacz Zhou +564 Moneyline Set at line Zhou 14.4% · model 15.3%
    15%win chance 14%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Zhou 11, Hurkacz 15
  5. ATP 3:00 AM ET
    Mensik @ Cerundolo Cerundolo +129 Moneyline Set at line Cerundolo 41.6% · model 46.5%
    46%win chance 42%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Mensik 15, Cerundolo 11
  6. ATP 4:30 AM ET
    Nakashima @ Bublik Nakashima -130 Moneyline Set at line Nakashima 53.8% · model 56.4%
    56%win chance 54%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Nakashima 16, Bublik 19
  7. ATP 6:00 AM ET
    Halys @ Zverev Halys +500 Moneyline Set at line Halys 15.9% · model 24.0%
    24%win chance 16%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Halys 14, Zverev 18
  8. ATP 7:30 AM ET
    Tiafoe @ Davidovich Fokina Davidovich Fokina -112 Moneyline Set at line Davidovich Fokina 50.3% · model 54.8%
    55%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 Tiafoe 18, Davidovich Fokina 18
  9. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Auger Aliassime @ Carreno-Busta Carreno-Busta +247 Moneyline Set at line Carreno-Busta 27.5% · model 30.4%
    30%win chance 27%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 Auger Aliassime 16, Carreno-Busta 10
  10. ATP 12:00 AM ET
    Ruud @ Tien Ruud +135 Moneyline Set at line Ruud 40.6% · model 52.2%
    52%win chance 41%market
    ✓ Won +1.35 Ruud 13, Tien 10

Win chance is the model's chance the bet wins: its win probability for a moneyline, and for a spread its chance to cover, sized from how far its margins have missed over the last 30 days. Market is the same chance from the prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. Edge is the gap between the two, in points.