The Forecast Card

All sports · Sunday, October 11

Card for Sun, Oct 11

Every bet our models make that day, across every sport, at the line it was set at. Simulated 1 unit a game, not betting advice.

Bets
29
Settled
15–13–1
Units
+1.10
By start Win chance Edge
All Open Settled
  1. NFL 9:30 AM ET
    PHI @ JAX PHI +7.5 Spread Set at line JAX -7.5 · model JAX -5.5
    57%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 PHI 17, JAX 19
  2. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    CHI @ GB GB +1.5 Spread Set at line CHI -1.5 · model GB -0.3
    57%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 CHI 7, GB 31
  3. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    CIN @ MIA MIA +7.0 Spread Set at line CIN -7.0 · model CIN -3.9
    61%win chance 50%market
    Push CIN 31, MIA 24
  4. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    CLE @ NYJ NYJ -2.5 Spread Set at line NYJ -2.5 · model NYJ -2.9
    51%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 CLE 12, NYJ 17
  5. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    HOU @ TEN TEN +7.0 Spread Set at line HOU -7.0 · model HOU -5.2
    57%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 HOU 26, TEN 3
  6. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    IND @ PIT IND +3.0 Spread Set at line PIT -3.0 · model PIT -1.3
    56%win chance 52%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 IND 22, PIT 34
  7. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    LV @ NE NE -3.5 Spread Set at line NE -3.5 · model NE -7.1
    63%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 LV 17, NE 45
  8. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    MIN @ NO NO +2.5 Spread Set at line MIN -2.5 · model MIN -1.3
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 MIN 23, NO 13
  9. NFL 1:00 PM ET
    NYG @ WAS NYG +3.5 Spread Set at line WAS -3.5 · model WAS -2.8
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 NYG 27, WAS 27
  10. NFL 4:05 PM ET
    DEN @ LAC LAC +3.5 Spread Set at line DEN -3.5 · model DEN -2.3
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 DEN 23, LAC 17
  11. NFL 4:25 PM ET
    DET @ ARI ARI +5.5 Spread Set at line DET -5.5 · model DET -4.5
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 DET 45, ARI 21
  12. NFL 4:25 PM ET
    SF @ SEA SEA -3.0 Spread Set at line SEA -3.0 · model SEA -5.6
    59%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 SF 32, SEA 29
  13. NFL 8:20 PM ET
    BAL @ ATL BAL +3.0 Spread Set at line ATL -3.0 · model ATL -1.3
    56%win chance 47%market
    ✓ Won +1.02 BAL 30, ATL 23

Win chance is the model's chance the bet wins: its win probability for a moneyline, and for a spread its chance to cover, sized from how far its margins have missed over the last 30 days. Market is the same chance from the prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. Edge is the gap between the two, in points.