NBA predictions Thu, Oct 29
Win probabilities, projected scores and totals for every NBA game, plus player box-score lines. Methodology →
3 games on this slate · 39–17 last 30 days →
Games
#14
Cavaliers
36.9%
115.4
#8
Hawks
63.1%
120.1
Projected total
235.5
Biggest factor: Home court · ATL +1.9 pts
#30
Kings
42.5%
117.2
#21
Pelicans
57.5%
119.8
ModelMarket
Spread
NOP -2.6
NOP -5.5
Total
237.0
237.5
Biggest factor: Injuries and absences · SAC +2.4 pts
#12
Grizzlies
38.7%
114.0
#6
Trail Blazers
61.3%
117.9
ModelMarket
Spread
POR -3.9
POR -6.5
Total
231.8
232.5
Biggest factor: Home court · POR +1.8 pts
How we got this
Cavaliers
115.4
Hawks
120.1
How the numbers are built
MarginATL by 4.66
- Neutral-court rating gappace x offense and defense ratings ATL +2.02
- Home courtfit on league-wide home results ATL +1.86
- Injuries and absencesATL -3.9, CLE -4.7 ATL +0.78
Total235.5 pts
- League-average game226.7
- Pace104.0 possessions vs 99.7 average +9.9
- Offense vs defense -1.2
- Home court +0.0
Team comparison
|
CLE |
ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive ratingpts/100 | 113.914th of 30 | 114.87th of 30 |
| Defensive ratingpts/100 | 113.115th of 30 | 112.110th of 30 |
| Net ratingpts/100 | 0.814th of 30 | 2.78th of 30 |
| Paceposs/48 | 102.23rd of 30 | 101.85th of 30 |
Who is out
- ATL unlisted rotation ATL Rest risk · -3.9 pts each 24% to sit
- CLE unlisted rotation CLE Rest risk · -4.7 pts each 24% to sit
Conditions
- Rest (ATL)1 day (back-to-back)
- Rest (CLE)1 day (back-to-back)
- Neutral siteNo
Model nba-team-strength-2026.10 · data as of · Sources: NBA Stats API (box scores, schedule), Official NBA injury report. How the models work →
How we got this
Kings
117.2
Pelicans
119.8
Model vs market
Spread
2.9 toward SAC
- Model
- NOP -2.6
- First line
- NOP -5.5
- Latest
- NOP -5.5
NOP -5.5 at -115
Total
0.5 lower
- Model
- 237.0
- First line
- 237.5
- Latest
- 237.5
Over -115 / Under -105
- First line
- DraftKings · 8:52 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 8:52 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
MarginNOP by 2.6
- Neutral-court rating gappace x offense and defense ratings NOP +5.1
- Home courtfit on league-wide home results NOP +1.9
- Injuries and absencesNOP -4.5, SAC -2.2 SAC +2.4
- Back-to-back (NOP) SAC +2.0
Total237.0 pts
- League-average game226.7
- Pace102.9 possessions vs 99.7 average +7.3
- Offense vs defense +3.0
- Home court +0.1
Team comparison
|
SAC |
NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive ratingpts/100 | 110.927th of 30 | 114.012th of 30 |
| Defensive ratingpts/100 | 117.430th of 30 | 115.525th of 30 |
| Net ratingpts/100 | -6.530th of 30 | -1.520th of 30 |
| Paceposs/48 | 101.013th of 30 | 101.87th of 30 |
Who is out
- NOP unlisted rotation NOP Rest risk · -4.5 pts each 24% to sit
- K. Murray SAC Out · -0.8 pts 14 min, 99% to sit
- SAC unlisted rotation SAC Rest risk · -1.4 pts each 11% to sit
Conditions
- Rest (NOP)1 day (back-to-back)
- Rest (SAC)2 days
- Neutral siteNo
Model nba-team-strength-2026.10 · data as of · Sources: NBA Stats API (box scores, schedule), Official NBA injury report. How the models work →
How we got this
Grizzlies
114.0
Trail Blazers
117.9
Model vs market
Spread
2.6 toward MEM
- Model
- POR -3.9
- First line
- POR -7.5
- Latest
- POR -6.5
POR -6.5 at -115 · opened POR -7.5
Total
0.7 lower
- Model
- 231.8
- First line
- 232.5
- Latest
- 232.5
Over -110 / Under -110
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:52 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 8:52 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
MarginPOR by 3.93
- Neutral-court rating gappace x offense and defense ratings POR +2.39
- Home courtfit on league-wide home results POR +1.83
- Injuries and absencesPOR -2.0, MEM -1.7 MEM +0.29
Total231.8 pts
- League-average game226.7
- Pace101.5 possessions vs 99.7 average +4.1
- Offense vs defense +1.0
- Home court +0.0
Team comparison
|
MEM |
POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive ratingpts/100 | 113.913th of 30 | 116.22nd of 30 |
| Defensive ratingpts/100 | 112.914th of 30 | 112.913th of 30 |
| Net ratingpts/100 | 1.012th of 30 | 3.36th of 30 |
| Paceposs/48 | 100.617th of 30 | 100.716th of 30 |
Who is out
- H. Yang POR Questionable · -0.0 pts 4 min, 49% to sit
- POR unlisted rotation POR Rest risk · -2.0 pts each 11% to sit
- MEM unlisted rotation MEM Rest risk · -1.7 pts each 11% to sit
Conditions
- Rest (POR)2 days
- Rest (MEM)3 days
- Neutral siteNo
Model nba-team-strength-2026.10 · data as of · Sources: NBA Stats API (box scores, schedule), Official NBA injury report. How the models work →
Players
Points leaders
- Darius Acuff Jr.27.5 pts
- Ty Jerome24.9 pts
- Zach LaVine24.7 pts
- Jalen Johnson23.2 pts
- Donovan Mitchell22.2 pts
Rank by
|
CLE @ ATL | 23.2 | 6.6 | 1.53 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 1.25 | 1.02 | 2.75 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 27.5 | 7.6 | 2.83 | 3.7 | 0.65 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 1.03 | 0.49 | 2.70 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 15.9 | 6.3 | 0.08 | 3.2 | 3.98 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 3.28 |
|
MEM @ POR | 24.9 | 6.4 | 2.15 | 5.7 | 0.99 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 0.92 | 0.16 | 2.05 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 24.7 | 5.3 | 2.75 | 5.8 | 0.72 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 2.40 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 22.2 | 5.8 | 2.13 | 4.1 | 1.05 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 1.29 | 0.63 | 2.87 |
|
MEM @ POR | 20.7 | 5.4 | 1.84 | 4.3 | 1.21 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 2.48 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 19.1 | 6.4 | 1.35 | 2.3 | 0.75 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 1.35 | 0.98 | 2.34 |
|
MEM @ POR | 17.5 | 4.0 | 2.00 | 3.5 | 1.22 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 0.85 | 0.59 | 2.16 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 15.7 | 2.5 | 2.25 | 3.9 | 0.69 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 1.07 | 0.45 | 3.23 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 15.3 | 4.1 | 1.35 | 3.0 | 2.43 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 1.69 |
|
MEM @ POR | 18.3 | 2.3 | 3.23 | 4.1 | 0.69 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 1.87 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 17.3 | 5.6 | 0.63 | 4.3 | 1.02 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 1.52 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 17.1 | 2.8 | 2.86 | 2.9 | 1.28 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.22 | 0.28 | 1.74 |
|
MEM @ POR | 13.3 | 4.3 | 1.04 | 1.6 | 1.11 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 1.70 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 12.4 | 4.8 | 0.39 | 1.7 | 2.32 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.76 | 0.36 | 1.29 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 12.8 | 2.8 | 1.46 | 2.8 | 0.75 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.89 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 11.4 | 3.9 | 0.11 | 3.3 | 2.41 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.79 | 1.25 | 1.32 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.30 | 3.5 | 1.32 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.87 | 0.45 | 1.09 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 13.4 | 3.4 | 1.89 | 1.0 | 0.87 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 1.65 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 12.1 | 4.7 | 0.34 | 1.6 | 2.54 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 0.91 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 14.7 | 3.2 | 2.29 | 1.5 | 0.30 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.92 | 0.38 | 1.45 |
|
MEM @ POR | 12.0 | 1.8 | 1.93 | 2.6 | 1.57 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0.96 | 0.62 | 1.22 |
|
MEM @ POR | 10.1 | 2.9 | 1.29 | 0.4 | 1.62 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 1.55 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 12.8 | 2.4 | 1.80 | 2.7 | 0.55 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.62 | 0.29 | 1.26 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 10.1 | 2.3 | 1.38 | 1.4 | 1.72 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.82 | 0.65 | 1.25 |
|
MEM @ POR | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.67 | 1.6 | 2.23 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.55 | 2.68 | 1.15 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 12.8 | 2.4 | 2.22 | 1.3 | 0.50 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.06 | 0.30 | 1.13 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 10.3 | 1.8 | 1.67 | 1.7 | 1.17 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 1.06 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 11.5 | 3.2 | 1.16 | 1.5 | 0.80 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.52 |
|
MEM @ POR | 11.2 | 2.2 | 1.61 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 9.7 | 2.1 | 1.53 | 1.0 | 1.35 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.65 | 0.34 | 1.33 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 9.1 | 0.8 | 1.42 | 3.2 | 0.35 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 0.74 | 0.52 | 1.14 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.88 | 1.2 | 1.26 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 1.24 |
|
MEM @ POR | 9.4 | 1.7 | 1.42 | 1.7 | 0.67 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 1.17 |
|
MEM @ POR | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 1.38 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.60 | 1.95 | 0.96 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 10.5 | 2.4 | 1.66 | 0.7 | 0.54 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
|
MEM @ POR | 9.7 | 0.7 | 2.53 | 0.8 | 0.89 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 9.2 | 1.6 | 1.35 | 1.8 | 1.02 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2.42 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.59 | 1.47 | 0.66 |
|
MEM @ POR | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 1.2 | 1.94 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.62 | 1.43 | 0.84 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.91 | 1.4 | 0.81 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
|
MEM @ POR | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.71 | 1.5 | 1.05 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 0.68 | 0.16 | 1.53 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 2.1 | 0.54 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.56 | 0.79 | 0.84 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 7.6 | 2.0 | 0.99 | 0.6 | 0.75 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.62 | 0.18 | 0.94 |
|
MEM @ POR | 8.2 | 1.8 | 1.18 | 1.1 | 0.42 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 1.58 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.97 | 0.3 | 0.45 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 6.7 | 0.8 | 1.27 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
|
MEM @ POR | 6.7 | 1.2 | 1.33 | 0.3 | 0.73 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 1.34 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.45 | 0.4 | 0.70 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 1.73 |
|
MEM @ POR | 6.3 | 0.9 | 1.01 | 1.6 | 0.86 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
|
MEM @ POR | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.37 | 0.9 | 1.55 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.61 | 0.38 | 0.67 |
|
MEM @ POR | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.69 | 0.8 | 0.66 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
|
MEM @ POR | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.77 | 0.5 | 0.85 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.61 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 5.7 | 1.0 | 1.03 | 0.6 | 0.44 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.52 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.68 | 0.4 | 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
|
MEM @ POR | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.65 | 0.5 | 0.46 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.98 | 0.2 | 0.10 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.54 | 0.3 | 0.94 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.39 |
|
MEM @ POR | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.32 | 0.5 | 0.23 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.55 | 0.3 | 0.34 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
|
MEM @ POR | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.64 | 0.4 | 0.35 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
|
MEM @ POR | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.64 | 0.5 | 0.69 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 0.49 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.18 | 0.6 | 0.49 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.27 | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.25 | 0.3 | 0.14 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
|
MEM @ POR | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.59 | 0.6 | 0.17 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
|
MEM @ POR | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.64 | 0.3 | 0.17 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.00 | 0.7 | 0.71 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | 0.3 | 0.32 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.21 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
|
SAC @ NOP | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.22 | 0.3 | 0.23 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.18 | 0.60 | 0.18 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.16 | 0.2 | 0.18 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.16 | 0.4 | 0.10 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
|
CLE @ ATL | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.16 | 0.2 | 0.10 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.22 |