NBA predictions Thu, Oct 22
Win probabilities, projected scores and totals for every NBA game, plus player box-score lines. Methodology →
2 games on this slate · model went 2–0 · 29–14 last 30 days →
Games
✓ Favorite won
Cavaliers
106
46.6% · proj 114.2
76ers
114
53.4% · proj 115.4
ModelMarket
Spread
PHI -1.3
PHI -2.5
PHI win
53.4%
57.2%
Total
229.6
236.5
Our bet
CLE +3.5
✗ Didn't cover
Set at line PHI -3.5 · model PHI -1.3
✓ Favorite won
Nuggets
84
37.8% · proj 112.7
Thunder
96
62.2% · proj 117.3
ModelMarket
Spread
OKC -4.6
OKC -8.5
OKC win
62.2%
74.1%
Total
230.1
236.5
Our bet
DEN +8.5
✗ Didn't cover
Set at line OKC -8.5 · model OKC -4.6
Market
Cavaliers
106proj 114.2
76ers
114proj 115.4
Recommended bet
Spread
✗ Didn't cover
CLE +3.5
-108
-1.00 u
- Final
- Cavaliers 106, 76ers 114
- Result
- CLE lost by 8, could lose by up to 3
- Why
- Model PHI -1.3, first line PHI -3.5: the underdog
Model vs market
Spread
1.2 toward CLE
- Model
- PHI -1.3
- First line
- PHI -3.5
- Latest
- PHI -2.5
PHI -2.5 at -110 · opened PHI -3.5
PHI win
3.8 pp toward CLE
- Model
- 53.4%
- First line
- 56.3%
- Latest
- 57.2%
Moneyline PHI -148 / CLE +124 (vig removed) · opened 56.3%
Total
6.9 lower
- Model
- 229.6
- First line
- 233.5
- Latest
- 236.5
Over -115 / Under -105 · opened 233.5
Movement
PHI win chance
Model Market
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 56.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- Closing line · DraftKings · Thu 6:53 PM ET · moneyline from Thu 10:47 AM
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Nuggets
84proj 112.7
Thunder
96proj 117.3
Recommended bet
Spread
✗ Didn't cover
DEN +8.5
-115
-1.00 u
- Final
- Nuggets 84, Thunder 96
- Result
- DEN lost by 12, could lose by up to 8
- Why
- Model OKC -4.6, first line OKC -8.5: the underdog
Model vs market
Spread
3.9 toward DEN
- Model
- OKC -4.6
- First line
- OKC -7.5
- Latest
- OKC -8.5
OKC -8.5 at -102 · opened OKC -7.5
OKC win
11.8 pp toward DEN
- Model
- 62.2%
- First line
- 71.8%
- Latest
- 74.1%
Moneyline OKC -340 / DEN +270 (vig removed) · opened 71.8%
Total
6.4 lower
- Model
- 230.1
- First line
- 232.5
- Latest
- 236.5
Over -108 / Under -112 · opened 232.5
Movement
OKC win chance
Model Market
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 71.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- Closing line · DraftKings · Thu 9:23 PM ET · moneyline from Thu 10:47 AM
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Players
Points leaders
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander36.0 pts
- Tyrese Maxey28.9 pts
- Nikola Jokić23.5 pts
- Jaylen Brown21.4 pts
- Donovan Mitchell21.2 pts
Rank by
|
DEN @ OKC | 36.0 | 12.1 | 2.82 | 3.3 | 1.87 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 2.01 | 1.78 | 2.92 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 23.5 | 7.2 | 1.27 | 5.3 | 2.65 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 1.40 | 0.90 | 3.63 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 28.9 | 6.1 | 3.43 | 6.5 | 0.81 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 2.95 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 20.3 | 6.2 | 1.20 | 4.3 | 1.10 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 1.27 | 0.60 | 2.60 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 21.4 | 6.4 | 1.71 | 3.5 | 1.28 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.51 | 0.69 | 2.16 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 21.2 | 5.4 | 2.05 | 4.2 | 0.66 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.38 | 0.28 | 2.53 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 18.2 | 3.0 | 2.29 | 5.3 | 0.62 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 1.08 | 0.37 | 3.18 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 15.0 | 5.5 | 0.56 | 2.2 | 2.13 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 0.71 | 1.28 | 1.61 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 19.8 | 4.0 | 2.67 | 3.8 | 0.46 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.91 | 0.51 | 2.19 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 14.2 | 3.9 | 0.37 | 5.3 | 3.18 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 0.77 | 1.51 | 1.21 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 14.6 | 3.3 | 1.93 | 2.2 | 0.60 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 1.87 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 13.1 | 5.2 | 0.03 | 2.7 | 2.38 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 1.17 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 12.6 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 2.5 | 2.15 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 1.42 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 10.6 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 1.5 | 1.97 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 0.94 | 0.66 | 1.66 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 12.6 | 3.0 | 1.87 | 1.0 | 0.96 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 1.69 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 14.2 | 4.7 | 0.42 | 3.5 | 0.42 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.94 | 0.48 | 1.08 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 14.6 | 1.4 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 0.46 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 13.2 | 5.2 | 0.51 | 1.3 | 0.82 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.89 | 0.38 | 1.17 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 12.1 | 3.3 | 1.24 | 1.8 | 0.78 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 1.39 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 10.0 | 2.3 | 1.03 | 2.3 | 1.03 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 1.01 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 11.1 | 3.4 | 0.92 | 1.6 | 0.69 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 1.58 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 10.3 | 2.4 | 1.52 | 0.9 | 1.54 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.74 | 0.38 | 1.24 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 9.0 | 1.6 | 1.53 | 1.3 | 0.65 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.71 | 0.46 | 0.93 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 9.4 | 2.7 | 0.90 | 1.4 | 1.21 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.70 | 0.22 | 0.94 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 10.3 | 1.2 | 2.32 | 1.0 | 0.57 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.70 | 0.11 | 0.82 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.46 | 1.1 | 1.91 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.91 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 8.9 | 0.4 | 2.45 | 0.6 | 1.39 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 6.4 | 1.5 | 0.83 | 0.9 | 1.13 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.40 | 0.37 | 0.56 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.60 | 0.3 | 0.23 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 0.46 | 0.07 | 1.35 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.20 | 0.5 | 0.81 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.52 | 0.7 | 0.65 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.62 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.49 | 1.1 | 0.56 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.2 | 1.24 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.50 | 0.85 | 0.64 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.63 | 0.7 | 0.20 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 0.52 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.26 | 0.2 | 0.90 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.62 | 0.36 | 0.65 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.85 | 0.7 | 0.30 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.39 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.38 | 0.3 | 0.78 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.59 | 0.52 | 0.42 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.19 | 0.3 | 0.80 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.43 | 0.4 | 0.14 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
|
DEN @ OKC | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.13 | 0.2 | 0.28 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.16 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
|
CLE @ PHI | 0.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |