The Forecast Card

All sports · Saturday, October 17

Card for Sat, Oct 17

Every bet our models make that day, across every sport, at the line it was set at. Simulated 1 unit a game, not betting advice.

Bets
65
Settled
38–26–1
Units
+13.68
By start Win chance Edge
All Open Settled
  1. ATP 4:30 AM ET
    Davidovich Fokina @ Zverev Davidovich Fokina +286 Moneyline Set at line Davidovich Fokina 24.7% · model 31.0%
    31%win chance 25%market
    ✓ Won +2.86 Davidovich Fokina 17, Zverev 14
  2. WTA 5:00 AM ET
    Ostapenko @ Kartal Kartal -142 Moneyline Set at line Kartal 55.9% · model 60.4%
    60%win chance 56%market
    ✓ Won +0.70 Ostapenko 12, Kartal 14
  3. WTA 6:30 AM ET
    Chwalinska @ Swiatek Chwalinska +511 Moneyline Set at line Chwalinska 15.6% · model 28.6%
    29%win chance 16%market
    ✓ Won +5.11 Chwalinska 13, Swiatek 6
  4. ATP 7:00 AM ET
    Medvedev @ Jodar Jodar +159 Moneyline Set at line Jodar 36.8% · model 39.3%
    39%win chance 37%market
    ✓ Won +1.59 Medvedev 7, Jodar 12
  5. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    MSST @ LSU LSU -10.5 Spread Set at line LSU -10.5 · model LSU -15.0
    62%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 MSST 0, LSU 31
  6. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    FLA @ TEX TEX -10.0 Spread Set at line TEX -10.0 · model TEX -14.6
    62%win chance 49%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 FLA 27, TEX 24
  7. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    CIN @ WVU CIN +1.5 Spread Set at line WVU -1.5 · model CIN -4.6
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 CIN 42, WVU 45
  8. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    KU @ KSU KU +8.5 Spread Set at line KSU -8.5 · model KU -1.8
    75%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 KU 24, KSU 35
  9. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    PITT @ BC BC +7.0 Spread Set at line PITT -7.0 · model PITT -2.0
    63%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 PITT 21, BC 27
  10. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    UVA @ SMU SMU -7.5 Spread Set at line SMU -7.5 · model SMU -8.9
    54%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 UVA 13, SMU 23
  11. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    OSU @ IU IU +4.0 Spread Set at line OSU -4.0 · model OSU -2.5
    54%win chance 49%market
    Push OSU 19, IU 15
  12. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    NU @ MSU MSU +8.5 Spread Set at line NU -8.5 · model NU -2.4
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 NU 24, MSU 21
  13. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    FAU @ ARMY ARMY -2.5 Spread Set at line ARMY -2.5 · model ARMY -5.9
    59%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 FAU 24, ARMY 56
  14. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    BALL @ BGSU BGSU -6.5 Spread Set at line BGSU -6.5 · model BGSU -9.9
    59%win chance 52%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 BALL 32, BGSU 31
  15. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    GAST @ JMU GAST +12.5 Spread Set at line JMU -12.5 · model JMU -11.4
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 GAST 22, JMU 49
  16. CFB 12:30 PM ET
    RUTG @ MD RUTG +3.5 Spread Set at line MD -3.5 · model MD -3.2
    51%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 RUTG 37, MD 30
  17. CFB 1:00 PM ET
    CLT @ TEM TEM -21.5 Spread Set at line TEM -21.5 · model TEM -22.5
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 CLT 38, TEM 31
  18. CFB 1:00 PM ET
    MASS @ BUF BUF -5.5 Spread Set at line BUF -5.5 · model BUF -8.7
    58%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 MASS 18, BUF 25
  19. NHL 1:00 PM ET
    NJD @ WSH NJD -102 Moneyline Set at line NJD 48.3% · model 50.4% · at the close
    50%win chance 48%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 NJD 2, WSH 4
  20. CFB 1:30 PM ET
    WMU @ CMU CMU +7.5 Spread Set at line WMU -7.5 · model WMU -4.1
    59%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 WMU 21, CMU 14
  21. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    AUB @ UGA AUB +18.5 Spread Set at line UGA -18.5 · model UGA -16.9
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 AUB 27, UGA 24
  22. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    MIZ @ MISS MIZ +6.0 Spread Set at line MISS -6.0 · model MISS -4.4
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 MIZ 3, MISS 31
  23. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    ALA @ TENN ALA -6.5 Spread Set at line ALA -6.5 · model ALA -10.9
    61%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 ALA 10, TENN 26
  24. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    ASU @ TTU TTU -12.5 Spread Set at line TTU -12.5 · model TTU -12.9
    51%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.88 ASU 25, TTU 53
  25. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    GT @ VT GT +8.5 Spread Set at line VT -8.5 · model VT -2.4
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 GT 24, VT 34
  26. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    UNC @ DUKE DUKE -3.0 Spread Set at line DUKE -3.0 · model DUKE -7.1
    61%win chance 51%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 UNC 24, DUKE 20
  27. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    PSU @ MICH MICH -6.0 Spread Set at line MICH -6.0 · model MICH -8.9
    57%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 PSU 18, MICH 21
  28. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    NIU @ WYO WYO -7.5 Spread Set at line WYO -7.5 · model WYO -12.3
    62%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 NIU 23, WYO 41
  29. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    UNLV @ AF AF -1.5 Spread Set at line AF -1.5 · model AF -2.7
    53%win chance 48%market
    ✓ Won +1.00 UNLV 31, AF 41
  30. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    TOL @ EMU TOL -6.5 Spread Set at line TOL -6.5 · model TOL -12.1
    65%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 TOL 34, EMU 14
  31. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    AKR @ M-OH M-OH -9.5 Spread Set at line M-OH -9.5 · model M-OH -10.3
    52%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 AKR 14, M-OH 34
  32. NHL 3:30 PM ET
    CAR @ WPG CAR -205 Moneyline Set at line CAR 64.5% · model 66.8% · at the close
    67%win chance 64%market
    ✓ Won +0.49 CAR 3, WPG 2
  33. NHL 4:00 PM ET
    VAN @ TBL TBL -395 Moneyline Set at line TBL 76.6% · model 78.4% · at the close
    78%win chance 77%market
    ✓ Won +0.25 VAN 2, TBL 4
  34. CFB 4:30 PM ET
    TLSA @ RICE RICE +4.0 Spread Set at line TLSA -4.0 · model TLSA -3.0
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 TLSA 38, RICE 17
  35. CFB 5:00 PM ET
    TROY @ UL TROY +4.5 Spread Set at line UL -4.5 · model UL -3.1
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 TROY 6, UL 33
  36. CFB 6:00 PM ET
    WSU @ ORST ORST -16.5 Spread Set at line ORST -16.5 · model ORST -17.7
    53%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.94 WSU 30, ORST 48
  37. NHL 6:00 PM ET
    SEA @ FLA SEA +154 Moneyline Set at line SEA 37.8% · model 40.9% · at the close
    41%win chance 38%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 SEA 3, FLA 8
  38. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    ARK @ VAN ARK +6.5 Spread Set at line VAN -6.5 · model VAN -3.2
    59%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.85 ARK 31, VAN 21
  39. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    TCU @ BAY TCU +6.5 Spread Set at line BAY -6.5 · model BAY -3.0
    59%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 TCU 17, BAY 6
  40. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    FSU @ MIA FSU +21.0 Spread Set at line MIA -21.0 · model MIA -17.8
    58%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 FSU 35, MIA 43
  41. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    KENT @ USF USF -20.5 Spread Set at line USF -20.5 · model USF -23.8
    59%win chance 52%market
    ✓ Won +0.85 KENT 2, USF 29
  42. NHL 7:00 PM ET
    NYI @ TOR NYI +110 Moneyline Set at line NYI 45.7% · model 48.6% · at the close
    49%win chance 46%market
    ✓ Won +1.10 NYI 4, TOR 1
  43. NHL 7:00 PM ET
    BUF @ MTL MTL -142 Moneyline Set at line MTL 56.3% · model 60.4% · at the close
    60%win chance 56%market
    ✓ Won +0.70 BUF 3, MTL 4
  44. NHL 7:00 PM ET
    SJS @ DET DET -155 Moneyline Set at line DET 58.3% · model 64.8% · at the close
    65%win chance 58%market
    ✓ Won +0.65 SJS 3, DET 4
  45. NHL 7:00 PM ET
    OTT @ PHI OTT -155 Moneyline Set at line OTT 58.3% · model 69.4% · at the close
    69%win chance 58%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 OTT 1, PHI 3
  46. NHL 7:00 PM ET
    NYR @ CBJ NYR +114 Moneyline Set at line NYR 44.9% · model 53.1% · at the close
    53%win chance 45%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 NYR 0, CBJ 1
  47. NHL 7:00 PM ET
    DAL @ CHI CHI +180 Moneyline Set at line CHI 34.3% · model 34.9% · at the close
    35%win chance 34%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 DAL 4, CHI 0
  48. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    UK @ OU OU -6.5 Spread Set at line OU -6.5 · model OU -7.2
    52%win chance 51%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 UK 21, OU 13
  49. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    ND @ BYU BYU +12.5 Spread Set at line ND -12.5 · model ND -7.0
    64%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 ND 24, BYU 28
  50. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    OKST @ HOU HOU -3.5 Spread Set at line HOU -3.5 · model HOU -9.7
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 OKST 32, HOU 35
  51. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    LOU @ SYR LOU -14.5 Spread Set at line LOU -14.5 · model LOU -18.7
    61%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 LOU 34, SYR 26
  52. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    WIS @ UCLA UCLA -2.5 Spread Set at line UCLA -2.5 · model UCLA -5.4
    57%win chance 52%market
    ✓ Won +0.82 WIS 7, UCLA 17
  53. CFB 8:00 PM ET
    NAVY @ UTSA NAVY +6.5 Spread Set at line UTSA -6.5 · model UTSA -4.9
    54%win chance 47%market
    ✓ Won +1.02 NAVY 34, UTSA 38
  54. CFB 8:00 PM ET
    LT @ ULM ULM +14.5 Spread Set at line LT -14.5 · model LT -10.7
    60%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 LT 24, ULM 0
  55. NHL 8:00 PM ET
    STL @ NSH NSH -105 Moneyline Set at line NSH 48.9% · model 50.6% · at the close
    51%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 STL 2, NSH 5
  56. MLB 8:08 PM ET
    TB @ CLE CLE -106 Moneyline Set at line CLE 49.1% · model 55.5%
    56%win chance 49%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 TB 7, CLE 3
  57. CFB 9:00 PM ET
    SJSU @ UTEP SJSU -7.5 Spread Set at line SJSU -7.5 · model SJSU -14.2
    67%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 SJSU 24, UTEP 11
  58. NHL 9:00 PM ET
    BOS @ LAK BOS +114 Moneyline Set at line BOS 44.9% · model 49.8% · at the close
    50%win chance 45%market
    ✓ Won +1.14 BOS 4, LAK 1
  59. NHL 10:00 PM ET
    EDM @ UTA UTA -135 Moneyline Set at line UTA 55.1% · model 61.1% · at the close
    61%win chance 55%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 EDM 6, UTA 2
  60. NHL 10:00 PM ET
    PIT @ VGK VGK -205 Moneyline Set at line VGK 64.5% · model 67.8% · at the close
    68%win chance 64%market
    ✓ Won +0.49 PIT 2, VGK 6
  61. CFB 10:15 PM ET
    UTAH @ COLO UTAH -16.5 Spread Set at line UTAH -16.5 · model UTAH -21.2
    62%win chance 52%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 UTAH 27, COLO 24
  62. CFB 10:30 PM ET
    WAKE @ CAL WAKE -9.5 Spread Set at line WAKE -9.5 · model WAKE -15.4
    65%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 WAKE 41, CAL 7
  63. CFB 10:30 PM ET
    FRES @ SDSU FRES -9.5 Spread Set at line FRES -9.5 · model FRES -13.8
    61%win chance 51%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 FRES 23, SDSU 26
  64. CFB 10:30 PM ET
    UNM @ HAW HAW +14.0 Spread Set at line UNM -14.0 · model UNM -12.1
    55%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 UNM 21, HAW 10
  65. CFB 11:00 PM ET
    NEB @ ORE NEB +6.5 Spread Set at line ORE -6.5 · model ORE -1.9
    62%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.94 NEB 14, ORE 17

Win chance is the model's chance the bet wins: its win probability for a moneyline, and for a spread its chance to cover, sized from how far its margins have missed over the last 30 days. Market is the same chance from the prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. Edge is the gap between the two, in points.