The Forecast Card

All sports · Saturday, October 17

Card for Sat, Oct 17

Every bet our models make that day, across every sport, at the line it was set at. Simulated 1 unit a game, not betting advice.

Bets
65
Settled
38–26–1
Units
+13.68
By start Win chance Edge
All Open Settled
  1. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    MSST @ LSU LSU -10.5 Spread Set at line LSU -10.5 · model LSU -15.0
    62%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 MSST 0, LSU 31
  2. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    FLA @ TEX TEX -10.0 Spread Set at line TEX -10.0 · model TEX -14.6
    62%win chance 49%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 FLA 27, TEX 24
  3. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    CIN @ WVU CIN +1.5 Spread Set at line WVU -1.5 · model CIN -4.6
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 CIN 42, WVU 45
  4. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    KU @ KSU KU +8.5 Spread Set at line KSU -8.5 · model KU -1.8
    75%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 KU 24, KSU 35
  5. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    PITT @ BC BC +7.0 Spread Set at line PITT -7.0 · model PITT -2.0
    63%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 PITT 21, BC 27
  6. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    UVA @ SMU SMU -7.5 Spread Set at line SMU -7.5 · model SMU -8.9
    54%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 UVA 13, SMU 23
  7. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    OSU @ IU IU +4.0 Spread Set at line OSU -4.0 · model OSU -2.5
    54%win chance 49%market
    Push OSU 19, IU 15
  8. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    NU @ MSU MSU +8.5 Spread Set at line NU -8.5 · model NU -2.4
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 NU 24, MSU 21
  9. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    FAU @ ARMY ARMY -2.5 Spread Set at line ARMY -2.5 · model ARMY -5.9
    59%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 FAU 24, ARMY 56
  10. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    BALL @ BGSU BGSU -6.5 Spread Set at line BGSU -6.5 · model BGSU -9.9
    59%win chance 52%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 BALL 32, BGSU 31
  11. CFB 12:00 PM ET
    GAST @ JMU GAST +12.5 Spread Set at line JMU -12.5 · model JMU -11.4
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 GAST 22, JMU 49
  12. CFB 12:30 PM ET
    RUTG @ MD RUTG +3.5 Spread Set at line MD -3.5 · model MD -3.2
    51%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 RUTG 37, MD 30
  13. CFB 1:00 PM ET
    CLT @ TEM TEM -21.5 Spread Set at line TEM -21.5 · model TEM -22.5
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 CLT 38, TEM 31
  14. CFB 1:00 PM ET
    MASS @ BUF BUF -5.5 Spread Set at line BUF -5.5 · model BUF -8.7
    58%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 MASS 18, BUF 25
  15. CFB 1:30 PM ET
    WMU @ CMU CMU +7.5 Spread Set at line WMU -7.5 · model WMU -4.1
    59%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 WMU 21, CMU 14
  16. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    AUB @ UGA AUB +18.5 Spread Set at line UGA -18.5 · model UGA -16.9
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 AUB 27, UGA 24
  17. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    MIZ @ MISS MIZ +6.0 Spread Set at line MISS -6.0 · model MISS -4.4
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 MIZ 3, MISS 31
  18. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    ALA @ TENN ALA -6.5 Spread Set at line ALA -6.5 · model ALA -10.9
    61%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 ALA 10, TENN 26
  19. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    ASU @ TTU TTU -12.5 Spread Set at line TTU -12.5 · model TTU -12.9
    51%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.88 ASU 25, TTU 53
  20. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    GT @ VT GT +8.5 Spread Set at line VT -8.5 · model VT -2.4
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 GT 24, VT 34
  21. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    UNC @ DUKE DUKE -3.0 Spread Set at line DUKE -3.0 · model DUKE -7.1
    61%win chance 51%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 UNC 24, DUKE 20
  22. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    PSU @ MICH MICH -6.0 Spread Set at line MICH -6.0 · model MICH -8.9
    57%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 PSU 18, MICH 21
  23. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    NIU @ WYO WYO -7.5 Spread Set at line WYO -7.5 · model WYO -12.3
    62%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 NIU 23, WYO 41
  24. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    UNLV @ AF AF -1.5 Spread Set at line AF -1.5 · model AF -2.7
    53%win chance 48%market
    ✓ Won +1.00 UNLV 31, AF 41
  25. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    TOL @ EMU TOL -6.5 Spread Set at line TOL -6.5 · model TOL -12.1
    65%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 TOL 34, EMU 14
  26. CFB 3:30 PM ET
    AKR @ M-OH M-OH -9.5 Spread Set at line M-OH -9.5 · model M-OH -10.3
    52%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.89 AKR 14, M-OH 34
  27. CFB 4:30 PM ET
    TLSA @ RICE RICE +4.0 Spread Set at line TLSA -4.0 · model TLSA -3.0
    53%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 TLSA 38, RICE 17
  28. CFB 5:00 PM ET
    TROY @ UL TROY +4.5 Spread Set at line UL -4.5 · model UL -3.1
    54%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 TROY 6, UL 33
  29. CFB 6:00 PM ET
    WSU @ ORST ORST -16.5 Spread Set at line ORST -16.5 · model ORST -17.7
    53%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.94 WSU 30, ORST 48
  30. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    ARK @ VAN ARK +6.5 Spread Set at line VAN -6.5 · model VAN -3.2
    59%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.85 ARK 31, VAN 21
  31. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    TCU @ BAY TCU +6.5 Spread Set at line BAY -6.5 · model BAY -3.0
    59%win chance 51%market
    ✓ Won +0.87 TCU 17, BAY 6
  32. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    FSU @ MIA FSU +21.0 Spread Set at line MIA -21.0 · model MIA -17.8
    58%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 FSU 35, MIA 43
  33. CFB 7:00 PM ET
    KENT @ USF USF -20.5 Spread Set at line USF -20.5 · model USF -23.8
    59%win chance 52%market
    ✓ Won +0.85 KENT 2, USF 29
  34. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    UK @ OU OU -6.5 Spread Set at line OU -6.5 · model OU -7.2
    52%win chance 51%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 UK 21, OU 13
  35. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    ND @ BYU BYU +12.5 Spread Set at line ND -12.5 · model ND -7.0
    64%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.95 ND 24, BYU 28
  36. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    OKST @ HOU HOU -3.5 Spread Set at line HOU -3.5 · model HOU -9.7
    66%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 OKST 32, HOU 35
  37. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    LOU @ SYR LOU -14.5 Spread Set at line LOU -14.5 · model LOU -18.7
    61%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 LOU 34, SYR 26
  38. CFB 7:30 PM ET
    WIS @ UCLA UCLA -2.5 Spread Set at line UCLA -2.5 · model UCLA -5.4
    57%win chance 52%market
    ✓ Won +0.82 WIS 7, UCLA 17
  39. CFB 8:00 PM ET
    NAVY @ UTSA NAVY +6.5 Spread Set at line UTSA -6.5 · model UTSA -4.9
    54%win chance 47%market
    ✓ Won +1.02 NAVY 34, UTSA 38
  40. CFB 8:00 PM ET
    LT @ ULM ULM +14.5 Spread Set at line LT -14.5 · model LT -10.7
    60%win chance 50%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 LT 24, ULM 0
  41. CFB 9:00 PM ET
    SJSU @ UTEP SJSU -7.5 Spread Set at line SJSU -7.5 · model SJSU -14.2
    67%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.93 SJSU 24, UTEP 11
  42. CFB 10:15 PM ET
    UTAH @ COLO UTAH -16.5 Spread Set at line UTAH -16.5 · model UTAH -21.2
    62%win chance 52%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 UTAH 27, COLO 24
  43. CFB 10:30 PM ET
    WAKE @ CAL WAKE -9.5 Spread Set at line WAKE -9.5 · model WAKE -15.4
    65%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 WAKE 41, CAL 7
  44. CFB 10:30 PM ET
    FRES @ SDSU FRES -9.5 Spread Set at line FRES -9.5 · model FRES -13.8
    61%win chance 51%market
    ✗ Lost -1.00 FRES 23, SDSU 26
  45. CFB 10:30 PM ET
    UNM @ HAW HAW +14.0 Spread Set at line UNM -14.0 · model UNM -12.1
    55%win chance 50%market
    ✓ Won +0.91 UNM 21, HAW 10
  46. CFB 11:00 PM ET
    NEB @ ORE NEB +6.5 Spread Set at line ORE -6.5 · model ORE -1.9
    62%win chance 49%market
    ✓ Won +0.94 NEB 14, ORE 17

Win chance is the model's chance the bet wins: its win probability for a moneyline, and for a spread its chance to cover, sized from how far its margins have missed over the last 30 days. Market is the same chance from the prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. Edge is the gap between the two, in points.